CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election
November 5th, 2012
12:25 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election

(CNN) – A new CNN Poll of Polls on Monday indicates the race in Ohio–perhaps the most decisive battleground this presidential cycle–is locked in a statistical dead heat.

The poll shows President Barack Obama at 50% and Mitt Romney at 47% in Ohio, one day before the election. Those numbers are an average of three Ohio polls of likely voters conducted in the last week: Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati (Oct. 31-Nov. 4); CNN/ORC International (Oct. 30-Nov. 1) and NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist (Oct. 31-Nov.1). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Both campaigns have been barnstorming Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, in recent days, as many political observers consider the state a must-win for an overall victory on Tuesday. Obama, Romney and Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, will each appear in the Buckeye State to make their pitch on Monday.

The latest Ohio survey, from the University of Cincinnati, has the closest margin of the three polls, with 50% of likely voters in the state supporting Obama, while 49% back Romney. The one-point margin falls well within the sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, leaving the two candidates statistically tied. The university interviewed 901 likely voters by telephone.

The new Ohio poll comes a few days after the CNN/ORC International poll, which had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47%, mirroring Monday's Poll of Polls.

The University of Cincinnati poll–its final survey of the cycle–also gave numbers on the tight U.S. Senate race in the state, showing incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, at 51%, while his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, the state treasurer, comes in at 47%.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (58 Responses)
  1. cwall001

    A 3 percentage point lead is not a "statistical dead heat" in this case. One poll showing such a lead may be but averaging numerous polls greatly increases the sample size and takes out much of the sampling error. Therefore, a poll of polls showing a 3 point lead indicates a clear lead, not a dead heat.

    November 5, 2012 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  2. Anonymous

    you can tell you goy the people who keep the misquote of a obama speech about revenge all comes from a glenn beck show

    November 5, 2012 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  3. Anonymous

    Malorie-vote for Mitt if you will but I've seen him in action in Massachusetts where I lived when he was governor. He was not at all bipartisan. Ran as a moderate and governed as a conservative. I hope you are very rich because if you aren't you will be sorry.

    November 5, 2012 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  4. DP

    Am I the only person amused that Romney is still tied to the number 47%. KARMA

    November 5, 2012 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  5. TC

    Listen everyone I am from Ma. Romney was the worst gov. we ever had traditionally in a state like Mass heavy democrats you need a republican in gov seat to balance the shananigans it has worked for years with Rep govs like Weld, Celluci even Jane Swift. Romney trust me got nothing done during his time do not elect this wealthy big business guy to office. Tax breaks for rich does not work. You thought W was bad this guy will be horrible.

    November 5, 2012 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  6. krehator

    Every news outlet and party is claiming different polls. The BS is getting thick. Bottom line, the only polls that matter are the final election polls. New stations do not determine the polls. We the people do.

    November 5, 2012 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  7. UD

    Check the polls for ad spending, fundraising and how much the candidates are putting in – amazing
    306M – obama and
    144M – romney just for ads ... Nice work media... sure president obama is the star in these things... that's the record from previous 2008 campaign as well... just an observation...

    November 5, 2012 02:02 pm at 2:02 pm |
  8. Melpa

    I have no idea where these comments about "looking at the record" comes from. Have you looked at Romney's? Do you honestly require a translater to explain his track record of failing schools, non partisan practices and worsening job records in MA? Has Obama done everything he promised? No.....but he's done a lot, and considering he was working with a bunch of 2 year olds the last 2 years who would rather all of America fail than vote ONCE on anything the President supported, I think he is doing just fine. The American people need to hand him a Congress and only then will America see progression like we got in 2008. I think Dems failed Obama in 2010 and it's sad to see some of those people now whining that the President hasn't done enough.

    November 5, 2012 02:02 pm at 2:02 pm |
1 2 3