CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election
November 5th, 2012
12:25 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election

(CNN) – A new CNN Poll of Polls on Monday indicates the race in Ohio–perhaps the most decisive battleground this presidential cycle–is locked in a statistical dead heat.

The poll shows President Barack Obama at 50% and Mitt Romney at 47% in Ohio, one day before the election. Those numbers are an average of three Ohio polls of likely voters conducted in the last week: Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati (Oct. 31-Nov. 4); CNN/ORC International (Oct. 30-Nov. 1) and NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist (Oct. 31-Nov.1). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

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Both campaigns have been barnstorming Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, in recent days, as many political observers consider the state a must-win for an overall victory on Tuesday. Obama, Romney and Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, will each appear in the Buckeye State to make their pitch on Monday.

The latest Ohio survey, from the University of Cincinnati, has the closest margin of the three polls, with 50% of likely voters in the state supporting Obama, while 49% back Romney. The one-point margin falls well within the sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, leaving the two candidates statistically tied. The university interviewed 901 likely voters by telephone.

The new Ohio poll comes a few days after the CNN/ORC International poll, which had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47%, mirroring Monday's Poll of Polls.

The University of Cincinnati poll–its final survey of the cycle–also gave numbers on the tight U.S. Senate race in the state, showing incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, at 51%, while his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, the state treasurer, comes in at 47%.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (58 Responses)
  1. Marie MD

    I truly believe that the people of Ohio are smarter than to vote for someone who wants to send American jobs to China under the guise of improving our economy but it's just about him and bain making money. They have taken the apresident's campaign slogan from 2008 because they can't come up with anything to save them!!! Pathetic!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN. 2012

    November 5, 2012 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  2. barrist

    Oh CNN. I know you're scrambling for hits and viewership on your flailing network, but continuing to call it a "dead heat" to get more attention and interest is a bit sad. When 99% of polls in Ohio have shown a lead for Obama for MONTHS as well as in the last few days, it's not considered a "dead heat" even with margins of error (here's a tip, the margin of error is minimized when aggregating the polls). ; Call it what it is, a small but consistent lead for Obama. I know saying that jeopardizes the ratings for election night, but maybe going after ratings is why your network is down.

    November 5, 2012 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  3. yuri

    Romney's lies are flyin' aorund like house flies. Obama ain't adequately explaining the Benghazi fiasco, but seems less unbelievable. One will have to see which way the tide turns tomorrow, or in a few days, or weeks, or even months, depending on the vote counts.

    What an irony! Mitty boy is polling at 47%! Sounds like a familiar number he was talking about in Boca Raton, FL.

    November 5, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  4. Four and The Door

    Ohio voters are no more satisfied with 2% growth and 15% poverty than voters in any other state. They do know it takes more than government spending to recover an economy. Mitt Romney will win Ohio. And he will win enough in other states so that Ohio will not be as critical as Obama/ Biden 2012 thinks it is.

    November 5, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  5. Dave Jaipersaud

    Romney is the most dishonest person ever to run for President. Romney has no morals and is a man with no core. He cheated many decent folks out of their retirement and their jobs in order to stuff his pocket while at Bain. He will lie, cheat, steal and change his position in a heartbeat to sound reasonable and con people to vote for him and then he will change back to the most unreasonable person that he truly is. DON"T FALL FOR IT. He is the worst of the worst con artist. Romney and the Republicans would let the States fend for themselves even if they are hit by a natural disaster. The Republican agenda is everyone is for themselves and to hell with everyone else. That is not the American way and we MUST not fall for what the Republicans are selling. Remember the last time we bought what they were selling? It was not that long ago. And remember what happened? We almost lost everything. We MUST never forget. DO NOT BUY WHAT THEY ARE SELLING.

    Romney has changed is position on almost everything that he had a position on. Have you forgotten how many times he changed his positions on taxes, abortion, assault weapons, equal pay for women, regulations, immigration, debt, spending, role of government, jobs, foreign policy. One day he supports something and the next day he is opposed to that same something. This shows that the man has no ethics, no integrity, no sense of honesty. Are these the qualities we should aspire too? I think not

    November 5, 2012 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  6. ga.democrat

    I hope the voters in Ohio will not be fooled by the wolf in sheep's clothes. They will not fall for the Romney/Ryan lies. Go to the polls Ohio and vote for Obama.

    November 5, 2012 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  7. Joanne PhD

    The Americans in Ohio are much more smarter than to vote for "revenge"....they will vote for "Love of Country"...and for a better economy than what we Americans have had to settle for – 23 MILLION + people out of work – 7.9% Unemployment – HIGHER than when Obama took office 4 yrs ago...and as for sending American jobs to China...let us NOT forget that GM, Chrysler, and Ford ALL have plants out of the USA in Mexico, Canada, Brazil...so the jobs to China thing is getting old...Vote for Life and Love of Country....Romney/Ryan 2012 – thank you Ohio !

    November 5, 2012 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  8. Really?

    See ya tomorrow night, Four and the Door! :)

    November 5, 2012 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  9. Dave Jaipersaud

    Do not fall for hoax that is perpetrated by Romney and the Republicans. They will lie, cheat and steal to get into the White House. The Republican idea to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. I am sure they would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out most Americans life savings. Basically that is what the Republicans are proposing. They are saying lets fire the guy that stabilized your investments and grow it to almost what it was prior to 2007 and let’s rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. Do they think most Americans are stupid?

    Here is the real hoax. The Republican idea to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. Here is something to think about. Republicans would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out their life savings. Basically that is what they are proposing. Republicans are telling us to fire the guy that stabilized and grow our investments to almost what it was worth prior to 2007 and rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. We have to be really stupid to listen to them and rehire a guy whose policies wiped out investment in the first place. I would hope that Americans are smarter than that.

    Here is a simple way of looking at who is best for the economy. Would you invest with a guy whose investment policies wiped out your investment portfolio or would you invest with a guy whose investment policies stabilized your investment portfolio and is currently growing your portfolio. Even Romney wouldn't invest his own money with the guy whose policies wiped out everyone’s investment and now he wants us to do it. So why would anyone even consider voting for any Republican.

    How can any Americans think that Romney/Ryan policies would be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. Have people forgotten what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. Are we that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    November 5, 2012 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  10. Chris in NY

    If President Obama is at 50% margin and leading Robme with 3% points that's good enough for me. Robme cannot close a 3% margin in one day.

    November 5, 2012 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  11. Mitt Robme_DRAFT_DODGING, TAX_EVADING_POS

    Thank God Mitt Robme will finally go home after tonite....pick one of your houses and go there, even if it's CAYMEN ISLAND or FRANCE it doesn't matter!!!

    OBAMA 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    November 5, 2012 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  12. callmecrazy

    Yes it looks close, but at the end of the day tomorrow, both Ohio and Boehner's face will be blue! Obama should be re-elected and given more time to fix our problems. We also need to send a message to congress to stop obstructing everything. Let's get things moving again!

    November 5, 2012 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  13. John Ridel

    And Obama's "Yes We Can!" slogan was brilliantly taken from the childrens cartoon "Bob the Builder".

    November 5, 2012 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  14. callmecrazy

    Oh and someone tell Romney that they are not moving Jeep production to China. Those adds are making him look incompetent. Maybe he wants to make it easy for Obama.

    November 5, 2012 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  15. California Gary

    Even though the various polls differ in the margin between the two candidates, the one constant in all of them is that President Obama is leading. Ohio will go into Obama's column and will join a number of the other "battleground" states in providing the bounce that Obama needs to come in at more than 300 electoral votes.

    November 5, 2012 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  16. ghostriter

    Ohio went to Bush in either 2000 or 2004. Maybe both.

    It could go either way. But with 1 in 8 jobs tied to the auto industry, it's hard to see Romney pulling this one out.

    Four and the Door, you probably aren't from here. Therefore you don't know about things like Ohio Gov John Kasich saying the exact opposite of what you and Romney are saying. Ohio has unemployment lower than the national average, for starters. Kasich has admitted that things are turning around. So the doom and gloom stories don't poll as well here.

    November 5, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  17. truth hurts

    One thing is for sure... NOBODY in Ohio coal country will be voting for Obama. Hopefuly Romney has a very good ground game there to get those people and all their friends to the polls. Obama wants to put all of them in the unemployment lines.

    November 5, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  18. thetruthandnothingbutthetruth

    listenin to Rush attempt to convince his cult of followers that Mitt is winning. reminds me of baghdad Bob! wait til tomorrow!

    November 5, 2012 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  19. BetterDaysAhead

    C'mon Ohio, join the good side and vote republican. Put America first!

    ROMNEY/RYAN 2012!

    November 5, 2012 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  20. meannie52

    In Response To Marie-
    I'm from Ohio and Mitt Romney is getting my vote-and the vote of everyone I know. I believe he will make a far better President than Obama, he has a much better record of turning things around and working with both sides. There is so much "spin" out there, I think you need to look at what both men have accomplished minus all the hype to get a true picture. I'm not into demonizing the opposition. If you can look at both men's records and say Obama's your guy, then go for it!!! But personally, for me, I choose Romney-Ryan!!!

    November 5, 2012 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  21. Martin

    If the Benghazi facility was a CIA base as narrated then the President is correct not to divulge too much info. The puzzle is why Ambassador Stevens was there despite knowing the facility was not adequately protected. It is impossible for us to protect all our facilities overseas and neither is it possible to restrict the movements of diplomats.

    November 5, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  22. Bleep

    Just make a poll up in my poll lets call it BLEEP POLL shows 53%Obama and 47%Romney in Ohio since he doesn't care for them that much anyway.

    November 5, 2012 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  23. Anonymous

    ohio for obama

    November 5, 2012 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  24. Wire Palladin, S. F

    Four – You should have been around in 2008 when Bush hand Obama a negative 9% GDP. Those were the good republican days all right.

    November 5, 2012 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  25. buzzy van

    President Obama has made decent progress on many fronts despite the constant Republican obstruction of the last four years.
    It has been an uphill battle all the way and Obama needs 4 more years to consolidate the gains he is securing for the American people. Voting for the soulless Mitt Romney who is not only just a puppet of the Republican fat cats but also of the Israeli hawks will make the present deficit look like chump change. Romney would go to war with Iran within months after he takes office and he will soon squander valuable US military resources in yet another unwinnable war.

    November 5, 2012 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
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