CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election
November 5th, 2012
12:25 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll of Polls: Ohio a close contest on eve of election

(CNN) – A new CNN Poll of Polls on Monday indicates the race in Ohio–perhaps the most decisive battleground this presidential cycle–is locked in a statistical dead heat.

The poll shows President Barack Obama at 50% and Mitt Romney at 47% in Ohio, one day before the election. Those numbers are an average of three Ohio polls of likely voters conducted in the last week: Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati (Oct. 31-Nov. 4); CNN/ORC International (Oct. 30-Nov. 1) and NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist (Oct. 31-Nov.1). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

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Both campaigns have been barnstorming Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, in recent days, as many political observers consider the state a must-win for an overall victory on Tuesday. Obama, Romney and Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, will each appear in the Buckeye State to make their pitch on Monday.

The latest Ohio survey, from the University of Cincinnati, has the closest margin of the three polls, with 50% of likely voters in the state supporting Obama, while 49% back Romney. The one-point margin falls well within the sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, leaving the two candidates statistically tied. The university interviewed 901 likely voters by telephone.

The new Ohio poll comes a few days after the CNN/ORC International poll, which had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47%, mirroring Monday's Poll of Polls.

The University of Cincinnati poll–its final survey of the cycle–also gave numbers on the tight U.S. Senate race in the state, showing incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, at 51%, while his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, the state treasurer, comes in at 47%.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (58 Responses)
  1. tee1227

    Mitt is not at 47% and CNN knows it more like 44-45 %

    November 5, 2012 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  2. Wire Palladin, S. F

    In Florida, it apprears our extremely unpopular un indicted medicare fraud criminal governor has stolen an election for Mittens with his voter suppression. No more Scott.

    November 5, 2012 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  3. JM

    REVENGE That is what the President wants you to vote for. ROMNEY/RYAN 2012

    November 5, 2012 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  4. bob

    i voted for obama in 2008 an was basically a democrat but how in the world can i vote for him again.he says last nite to vote for REVENGE.all the broken promises,nothing like clinton.failed leader.high unemployment,wont, like clinton work with republicans.doubled in 4 years the debt.on an on.how can we blame rommey when he is not in power? i voted for obaMA HOPE AN CHANGE.where is it.he is up to his neck with govt control. stops the keystone pipeline.stops coal production.gas doubled.what more can we say.i hear rommey an he speaks about america,now im not buying it all but much better than what he have now. im an independent now an was a dem for 50 years. i will vote for the much better good.rommey an ryan.joe biden showed his true colors over an over,very sad.

    November 5, 2012 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  5. tee1227

    Just reported the Mitt will be holding a campaign rally in Ohio Tomorrow on election day, So what do that tell you about his so call 47% poll numbers in Ohio it tells me he not at 47% he under 47%

    November 5, 2012 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  6. EJ

    In no way should this country allow Mitt Romney nor the republican party into the white house. Regardless if you are racist, you must snap out of it and realize you are supporting a party that is willing to use voter suppression to win. If you start with corruption, what do you expect once they are in office? If you start with a liar, what do you expect once in the white house? These are the same people who are responsiple for the country being in the condition it is in now – why would anyone want to yurn it back over to them? These are the same people who allowed the banks and credit card companies to charge you outragous fees that President Obama stopped, why would you allow them to start doing this to you again? There is no reason to replace the president, we need to replace the obstructionist members of congress- those who signed on with Grover Norquist after promising to represent you.

    November 5, 2012 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  7. Eric

    I would like to see the methods, mathematics, and assumptions CNN made while trying to average these polls. With all variables being equal, you are still under the assumption that all polls were conducted in the same manner. Why not increase your sample size by 4 instead of relying on the "law of averages" and "CNN poll of polls"? This would shrink your margin of error considerably and give you a closer approximation of what is really going on. I know this article is for ratings and dramatic effect but come on.

    November 5, 2012 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  8. Name

    Obama Victory 2012 or we all will be put in binders unless we are part of the wealthy club

    November 5, 2012 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  9. Woman In California

    @meannie52

    In Response To Marie-
    I'm from Ohio and Mitt Romney is getting my vote-and the vote of everyone I know. I believe he will make a far better President than Obama, he has a much better record of turning things around and working with both sides. There is so much "spin" out there, I think you need to look at what both men have accomplished minus all the hype to get a true picture. I'm not into demonizing the opposition. If you can look at both men's records and say Obama's your guy, then go for it!!! But personally, for me, I choose Romney-Ryan!!!

    Have fun sending your sons and daughters INTO another war and remember to smile real BIG when the Romney "boys" pose for pictures.

    November 5, 2012 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  10. gondo t

    obama is gonna make it.im predicting between 285 to 300 electoral votes for him.he will get both ohio&florida.mark my word

    November 5, 2012 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  11. Woman In California

    HATRED. That is what Willard wants you to vote for.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    November 5, 2012 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  12. Marie MD

    @johnriel, really? That's all you have? As if nobody has ever said yes, I can or yes, we can.
    The twit did STEAL it from the Omaba campaign. Is this like retroactively retiring from bain in 1999 even if he was still listed as CEO, president and some other silly title?

    November 5, 2012 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  13. NoKidding

    Romney's track record of 0.9% JOB GROWTH IN MA when he was governor, and the very recent Bain Capital shutting down of the Sansata plant to ship all the plant's jobs to China, are enough for any fool to vote for him, believing he will do good for America!

    November 5, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  14. Name SPacific

    The good people of Ohio will not be "swiftboated" again and will vote to re-elect President Obama... and thereby be THE electoral votes necessary to put the Dems and America over the top....

    November 5, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  15. Malory Archer

    meannie52

    In Response To Marie-
    I'm from Ohio and Mitt Romney is getting my vote-and the vote of everyone I know. I believe he will make a far better President than Obama, he has a much better record of turning things around and working with both sides

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Oh, if only voters get informed PRIOR to going to the voting booth on November 6. The right likes to whine that a great number of businesses that got stimulus funds went bankrupt. Truth of the matter is only 8% went bankrupt vs. 24% of businesses cannibalized by bain capital. Additionally, when the challenger was governor of MA, the STATE'S DEMOCRATIC HOUSE & SENATE overrode his vetos more than 800 times. He didn't work with them – they just had the majorities to prevent him completely destroying the state.

    November 5, 2012 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  16. JM

    Why shouldn't your record reflect your campaign, and why wouldn't you use it? Because most everything Obama has done in the past has not made our Country better. It has gotten worse. So what does he do , he attacks Romney. What does Romney do, he fights back. And what does the Country do? ROMNEY/RYAN 2012

    November 5, 2012 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  17. M

    Why polls done by liberal organizations (such as CNN) always show Obama leading but independent polls (Rasmussen) show Romney's lead?

    November 5, 2012 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  18. jeff

    Voting despite the GOP attempts at voter suppression is the best REVENGE you can have. Wait out the long lines, barge in on your voter registrar offices, demand your voice be heard.

    November 5, 2012 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  19. David in FL

    Excited for a Romney Presidency!!

    November 5, 2012 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  20. Anonymous

    Romney/Ryan are masters of lying and taking comments out of context. Anything to win the White House.

    November 5, 2012 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  21. chet smith

    let's see 48,345 polls so far and now another one. I am impressed, not.

    November 5, 2012 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  22. major

    there are soo many things that have happened in this country the 9 11 crash, natural disasters like tonados n sandy t have never seen romney trying to do anythin to show that he cares action speaks better than words he would have done something be4 he get nominated 2 show that he concerned abt developing this nation. alot of residents suffered bt he didnt even spent a single dollar to help aleast one. do u think he make the economy much better?

    November 5, 2012 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  23. gimmesometruth

    I don't know who will win but I sincerely beileve it would be a very sad day for the future of America if Obama wins reelection. The incentive to work one's butt off will be gone for sure.

    November 5, 2012 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  24. carolina corpus

    I can't believe voters are so blind to see that the economy has gotten worst instead of better. Obama had 4 years to prove us all that he could do the job and all he's done is to prove how incompetent he is. Romney and Ryan have my vote.

    November 5, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  25. Vishwa Bhargava

    Here is a worthy cause for long term prosperity of the US and the rest of the world.
    From Wikipedia: “On January 15, 2009 the idea to appoint a secretary of peace in a Department of Peace [14]was voted as one of the top 10 Ideas for Change in America.[15] This project was part of a nationwide competition following the election of Barack Obama to identify the best ideas for change in America. A total of 7,875 ideas were submitted and 675,943 votes were cast. On January 16, 2009 the idea to appoint a secretary of peace in a Department of Peace was one of 10 ideas delivered to President Obama's transition team. The online community and media network for social issues Change.org and the Case Foundation co-hosted this event at the National Press Club in Washington, DC to announce the top 10 rated ideas.”
    “The 2009 U.S. military budget accounts for approximately 40% of global arms spending. The 2012 budget is 6-7 times larger than the $106 billion of the military budget of China, and is more than the next twenty largest military spenders combined.” Per Wikipedia.
    This is our biggest expense and needs to be reined in.
    Whosoever is closer to the above position gets my vote.

    November 5, 2012 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
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