Poll of Polls: Margin is thin in New Hampshire, Iowa
November 5th, 2012
02:52 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll of Polls: Margin is thin in New Hampshire, Iowa

(CNN) – New polls released Monday indicate the presidential race is neck and neck in two battleground states.

A CNN Poll of Polls show President Barack Obama has a narrow two-point edge over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 50%-48%, and a three-point edge over his Republican challenger in Iowa, 48%-45%.

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In New Hampshire, the Poll of Polls is an average of three polls of likely voters in the Granite State conducted in the past week: American Research Group (Nov. 2-4); WMUR/University of New Hampshire (Nov. 1-4); and NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist (Oct. 28-29). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

The latest survey was released by American Research Group on Monday and showed Obama and Romney tied at 49%. Earlier Monday, a separate survey indicated the president was up by three points, 51% to 48%, over his Republican challenger.

With four electoral votes, New Hampshire has been a contested battleground throughout the presidential race. Romney launched his White House bid in the state in 2011 and will hold a rally there Monday night, on the eve of the election. Obama traveled to the state Sunday.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

In Iowa, The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of three Iowa polls of likely voters conducted in the past week: American Research Group (Nov. 2-4); Des Moines Register (Oct. 30-Nov. 2); and NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist (Oct. 28-29). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

The latest survey, from American Research Group, was released Monday and showed Romney with a one point edge over Obama, 49%-48%. The Des Moines Register poll on Saturday, however, indicated the president had a 47%-42% advantage.

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

With six electoral votes, the state has long been considered a toss-up and coveted territory by both campaigns. Obama holds his final campaign rally Monday night in Iowa, a state he credits with launching him on a path to winning the Democratic nomination in 2008. GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan will also be in Iowa Monday.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN Poll of polls • Iowa • New Hampshire • Pennsylvania • Polls
soundoff (28 Responses)
  1. Dave

    This polls are a crack up!!! They are used to try and sway the public. Funny how they seldom seem accurate on election day. Gotta love the two-party scam.

    November 5, 2012 02:59 pm at 2:59 pm |
  2. truth hurts

    Geez.... All the battle ground states that Obama won handily in 2008 are now statistical ties. Where has all the love gone for the Messiah??? If he was doing such a great job, why wouldn't he be getting the same votes in 2012??? Or could it be that a lot peopl ehave caught on to his smoke and mirror, lie and smear show? Sure looks like it....

    November 5, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  3. CBP

    Mr. Romney and education: THis letter says it all and really does capture the feelings of those of us who were parents of children in the schools in 2004-2008.
    Open Letter to Educators:

    In the third presidential debate Mitt Romney proclaimed twice, “I love teachers!” As a middle school teacher in Massachusetts while he was governor and now president of the Massachusetts Teachers Association, I can assure you that we never felt Romney’s “love.” Our former governor never once met with the MTA to find out our views on education issues. He listened to business leaders and ideologues, not to classroom teachers, support staff or public higher education faculty and staff.

    We roll our eyes when Romney tries to take credit for our high-performing students. Massachusetts is a relatively affluent state that has always had good schools. Those schools were made even better as a result of a major education overhaul and increased funding for low-income districts adopted in 1993, 10 years before Romney took office. No major education initiatives were enacted while he was governor. In fact, Massachusetts cut funding for public schools by a higher percentage than any other state during his tenure.

    Romney’s boast that top-scoring students can attend any public college or university in Massachusetts “tuition-free” as a result of the John and Abigail Adams Scholarship he sponsored also elicits groans from educators, parents and students alike. In Massachusetts, our public higher education campuses charge very low tuition and very high fees, so the break these students get is way less than meets the eye. For example, this year tuition, fees, room and board at the University of Massachusetts come to $23,436. Of that, only $1,714 is tuition, so the Adams Scholarship winner still has to pay $21,722 to attend. In addition, fees rose by $3,000 under Romney, more than swallowing up any small benefit from the scholarship.

    Romney was a frequent critic of those of us who call for smaller class sizes. He claimed that there is no correlation between class size and student performance even while he sent his own sons to the Belmont Hill School – an exclusive prep school that costs $37,000 a year and that touts “class size averaging 12 students per section” as one of its selling points. Truly, Mitt Romney is out of touch with the needs of low- and middle-income students.

    Mitt Romney has never liked unions. He especially dislikes teachers’ unions. While governor, he once told The Boston Globe, “We should put together all the stakeholders at the table, but not the unions. Individual teachers, yes, but not the unions.” It’s no surprise that today he believes that teachers’ unions should be barred from making political contributions. Not oil companies. Not tobacco companies. Just teachers and other educators.

    As with so much in life, it’s important to get information from people close to the source to cut through the spin, rumor and misinformation. Romney’s popularity is extremely low in Massachusetts, the state where he served as governor until he got Potomac fever mid-way through his term and started roaming the countryside bad-mouthing our Commonwealth and bad-mouthing teachers’ unions, even while proclaiming his “love” for teachers. We hope others can learn and benefit from our experience.

    Paul Toner

    President of the Massachusetts Teachers Association and middle school social studies teacher in Cambridge, Massachusetts

    November 5, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  4. jkane sfl a vote for lady parts romney the tax cheat and lyin lady parts ryan willcut your moms medicare and soc sec . .can you afford to pay for them???

    Only sane people vote for president Obama ,he has brought us back from the gop caused brink while the gop has done nothing but obstruction the economic for obamas whole term !!!!!! So why would anyone vote gop ,romney with his 17. Bush advisors ,the gop caused the whole meltdown and cost 3000 American lives on 9-11 and 4500 more in a useless war in Iraq , so your going to vote for a replay ?????

    November 5, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  5. LIP

    Republicans and Independants and middle of the road Democrats who do not want this country to become a Socialist state where everyone is poor, get out the vote for Romney

    November 5, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  6. SOUTHERN HOTTIE

    Even if Romney wins the 70 electoral votes that are a toss up, he does not have the 270 required to win.

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012 is the clear winner.

    November 5, 2012 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  7. Cee Gibbus

    Queston for everyone else living in "battleground" states (Ohio, here):
    Do you answer the polls correctly? I mean, the first 10 or twenty, sure, but after that, do you also start playing with them? (I've been a young, black, low-income, women for Romney, a well off, aged, white male for Obama, and on and on. Tha automated ones are the best because they cant hear you're real gender/age)
    Polls -- really, does it make a difference until the votes are counted?

    November 5, 2012 03:07 pm at 3:07 pm |
  8. pcalif

    Because CNN is so partisan, their polls are just not reliable. CNN seems desperate to garner watchers for Election Day. One thing is for sure, most of their commentators are Republican, not non-partisan. When one sees how radically partisan, Ari Fleisher and Ana Navarro are, it's grab the remote time. Why would you put two people like this on a panel which supposedly wants a diverse discussion.

    November 5, 2012 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  9. Critical Thinking

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. (ROMNEY WIN)

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. (ROMNEY WIN)

    November 5, 2012 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  10. BetterDaysAhead

    The margin is thinner than a liberals back bone....and thats real thin!

    Show up for Mitt Romney America and he will show up for you! We need a president that can be trusted , ROMNEY 2012!

    November 5, 2012 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  11. Gurgyl

    Obama12.

    November 5, 2012 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  12. Chris in NY

    Any poll that has President Obama at 50 or 51% seals it for me. It is hard to cover the gap and over take such number within a day or two. So, the media can keep saying the race is tied. We know what they are doing.

    November 5, 2012 03:19 pm at 3:19 pm |
  13. UBS, WILLARD & 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    CNN, when it comes to these poll numbers, you should start with the disclaimer that "all of these polls are within the margin of error." Regardless, Iowa and New Hampshire are going in the President's win column.

    November 5, 2012 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  14. REGinAZ

    Is America experiencing a moral and ethical decline much like the Roman Empire did after their rise to greatness? We elect politicians who are grossly dishonest just because they are aggressive and allude that they’ll provide “more”. We applaud financial success no matter how it is achieved and ignore quality without it. We follow clergy who excite with hype created over being “holier than thou” when all religious doctrines teach humility is God’s true way. We rationalize that we individually deserve “more” based on others having it and seek to attain it however we can. We have political movements shouting and demonstrating with their “more for me for nothing” mentality. We have a political party that just gives the 99% subterfuge as they self-servingly concentrate on catering to the 1% for their support. We have activists who are on national media constantly ranting and raving about how justified it is for the few to always be gaining “more” and rationalize that those needing are just looking for a handout. We have media, owned by billionaires and staffed by millionaires, who work to influence, at the minimum subtly, the public’s thinking, thereby failing their responsibility and the public’s trust. We have politicians who want to even cut benefits for children in order to give “more” to the very wealthy. ...

    ... We have politicians, with strong support from the “money”, who manipulate public opinion with deceptions aimed to excite emotions and appeal to selfish interests. They fault “big government”, which didn’t cause our problems, to distract from and condone the aggressive exploitation by the few, which does constantly cause our problems. We rationalize that our religious beliefs should dominate and control yet we fault countries who have followed those same paths. We have business, community and government leaders who demonstrate self-aggrandizing without ever conscientiously serving more than their own interests. We see many who take pride in their financial gains, with pride in real quality disappearing. We see the 1% constantly pushing for “more”, without concern for the 99% and then they propagandize that the 99% are at fault for needing more. On and on with the measurement and the motivation always being for material success, without any guilt or concern for neglecting compassion or for being dishonest. No, this isn’t true of everyone but there is little evidence of it not being tolerated by everyone. Where is the honesty, the conscience, the compassion, the humility and the striving for personal quality that made America great? Is America in a drastic moral decline – I don’t know, but maybe you can tell by your own reaction to this and by how you vote.

    November 5, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  15. Reggiedw

    A CNN poll of polls means absolutely nothing because CNN always polls more democrats than republicans. This will likely tell me that Romney is leading Obama in these 2 states. CNN stop being so bias!!!!!! Romney/Ryan in 2012!!!!!!!!!!

    November 5, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  16. al in memphis

    November 7th has never look so good– that when all this madness will be over with. Other countries can stop laughing at us when they see how a good process has been turned into a media circus of mis-information and half truths.

    November 5, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  17. truth hurts

    People, people, people.... There isn't enough koolaide in America to get Obama re-elected. Only fools like Obama, Biden and the Democrats would even TRY to spin the last 4 years as being a success and something that people should want for another 4 years. They keep saying the job isn't done. Well guess what, you had 4 years and you created a NET of 171,000 jobs. If we had put two monkeys throwing darts at a board they could have done better than that. And to add insyult to injury, we (as in OUR KIDS) are $5 TRILLION deeper in debt.

    Obama, Bideb, Democrats, lefties, koolaide drinkers..... you can spin all you want but you can't spin a tale of success from such a miserable tale failure. The American people are not morons and you will find that out tomorrow.

    November 5, 2012 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  18. tee1227

    CNN with the spin they always lean right. Just like the debates polls,

    November 5, 2012 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  19. Bleebo

    I am TOTALLY confused, as to how Americans thinks that Romney is GOOD for America. OMG. This DUDE is scandalous, and the BIGGEST LIAR i have EVER in my life time had the unfortunate opportunity to listen to as he attempts to lie his way in the Highest Job of this NATION. Come on PEOPLE WAKE UP. Stop being RACIST!!! Look BEYOND the POTUS Skin color. He cares about you too, and of course you know, YOU JUST so DARN angry that a BLACK Man is helping you. Substance or SMEARS. WAKE UP!!! OBAMA/BIDEN 2012. You all know he has help you in the last 3 1/2 years. You know those FOOD stamps, (white people) have increased for you. STOP it, (in my Annie Romney voice, LLS)

    November 5, 2012 03:39 pm at 3:39 pm |
  20. TheVoice2

    Rasmussen is a GOP leaning poll. Most of their polls have Romney winning. Not CNN's fault.

    November 5, 2012 03:40 pm at 3:40 pm |
  21. The Situation

    Critical Thinking
    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. (ROMNEY WIN)

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. (ROMNEY WIN)

    November 5, 2012 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |

    Rasmussen is useless. Everyone knows that it's a right wing leaning poll. Maybe that's why they were 9th in their prediction in the 2008 election.

    November 5, 2012 03:41 pm at 3:41 pm |
  22. al in memphis

    I wonder want the polls would be if Obama has done the following
    1. Disparge 47% of the nation as irresponsible, victims
    2. Suggest that the function FEMA serves be turn over to the states and when possible privatized
    3. Suggested an debt reduction plan that adds more military spending, taking back deduction for the middle class, and think that if you eliminate capital gains tax that it will spur the economy.
    4. Thinks the poor will be fine, because there is a safety net and volunteer organizations will step up to the plate to cover the difference. The poor especially like that capital gains will be tax less, because most of the income of the poor and middle class does come from capital gains ( yeah right)
    5. On day one , give the states a wavier from Obamacare - that will allow them to instantly do less for their citizens. But the military can count on it budget going up by 2 trillion over the next 4 years.

    Yeap, that would be a formula for the polls to be tied.

    November 5, 2012 03:44 pm at 3:44 pm |
  23. Outside observer

    Yes, CNN has been leaning to the right for a while. I agree with Pcalif comment at above that clearly states our frustration with CNN partiality as follows “One thing is for sure, most of their commentators are Republican, not non-partisan. When one sees how radically partisan, Ari Fleisher and Ana Navarro are, it's grab the remote time. Why would you put two people like this on a panel which supposedly wants a diverse discussion”. Really Great perception.

    November 5, 2012 03:45 pm at 3:45 pm |
  24. UBS, WILLARD & 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    How is it a "Poll of Polls" when it still has a margin of error based off of other polls that have margins of error? Enough with the polls.

    November 5, 2012 03:49 pm at 3:49 pm |
  25. al in memphis

    @ truth hurts

    ....... Well guess what, you had 4 years and you created a NET of 171,000 jobs. If we had put two monkeys throwing darts at a board they could have done better than that. And to add insyult to injury, we (as in OUR KIDS) are $5 TRILLION deeper in debt. ...........The American people are not morons and you will find that out tomorrow.
    _______________________
    You must have really been excited when the economy was losing 850,000 jobs a month at the end of a 8-year Bush administration of tax breaks and two wars that. Especially considering Bush had 8 years and started out with a good economy, a balance budget, no financial crisis that cripple all business growth, and a housing industry in the tank.

    Plus this debt thing should have been fixed in the worst recession since the depression (the government always has more money coming in during a recession). And for good measure, let's just add two wars – because the last time I check WAR IS FREE.
    I will agree with you on the Americans are not morons - we just know how to identify them. Your opinions are comfortable in the upper 1% moronic.

    November 5, 2012 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
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