Virginia poll: Obama 48% – Romney 47%
November 5th, 2012
07:57 AM ET
2 years ago

Virginia poll: Obama 48% – Romney 47%

(CNN) – A new poll released Monday indicates that President Barack Obama has a razor thin margin over Mitt Romney in Virginia, a crucial battleground state with 13 electoral votes.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters in the state back the president, while 47% support the GOP presidential nominee, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey. The one-point margin is well within the poll's sampling error, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied.

Watch CNN's comprehensive coverage of Election Day starting at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday on CNN TV and follow online at CNN.com or via CNN's apps for iPhone, iPad and Android. For up-to-the-minute results, go to cnn.com/results and for our real-time Election Day live blog, check out cnn.com/conversation. Need other reasons to watch Election Day coverage on CNN's platforms? Click here for our list.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

One percent said they favor a different candidate, while three percent said they had not made up their minds.

The poll was conducted entirely after Superstorm Sandy hit the U.S. East Coast and damaged parts of Northern Virginia and the commonwealth's shoreline.

Among independents, Romney has a five-point edge over the incumbent president, while Obama has a modest advantage over his Republican challenger among women, 51%-45%. The gender gap, however, is half the amount from the same poll last month.

Geographically, Obama is leading in the densely-populated Washington, D.C. suburbs, while Romney has the edge in other parts of Northern Virginia, the central/western part of the state, the Richmond area and eastern part of the state, according to the poll.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll falls in line with a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac survey, which was released last week and indicated Obama had a slender two-point margin over Romney in Virginia. However, two earlier polls showed Romney with the advantage over Obama. A Roanoke College poll had the GOP nominee ahead by five points, while a FOX News poll indicated Romney had a two-point edge.

Both campaigns visit the Old Dominion on Monday, one day before the election. Romney makes two stops in Virginia, while Vice President Joe Biden also travels through the state.

Obama narrowly carried Virginia in 2008 by six percent over Sen. John McCain, becoming the first Democrat in four decades to win the state. In the last four years, however, Republicans have taken several statewide seats, including the governorship.

In the high-profile Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine, a former governor of the state and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has a three-point margin over Republican George Allen, a former U.S. senator from the state and also a former governor. Kaine has the support of 49% of likely voters, compared to Allen at 46%, the survey found.

For the survey, 1,165 likely voters were interviewed by telephone from November 1 through November 2, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Virginia
soundoff (12 Responses)
  1. BetterDaysAhead

    Virginia will definitely be Romney, take a ride through any neighborhood and you'll see where the support is.

    November 5, 2012 08:15 am at 8:15 am |
  2. Rick McDaniel

    Polls mean nothing. Votes do.

    November 5, 2012 08:21 am at 8:21 am |
  3. UBS, WILLARD & 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    We, the silent majority, will make sure that the President wins Virginia again. If Willard thinks he's going to win Virginia, he's in for a rude awakening.

    November 5, 2012 08:51 am at 8:51 am |
  4. Pete

    Romneys falling behind in Ohio,Florida as well because they've created a monster in republican led states in voter supression and more Democrates than in 2008 are coming out to vote to show they're against it!!Now there's a tift between Romney,Ryan just like the McCain,Palin debacle just before they went down,can't handle the pressure boys just wait till Tuesday it'll all be over for yah!!Obama/ Biden2012 ,yes we will rebuild with or without republicans help!!

    November 5, 2012 08:55 am at 8:55 am |
  5. sherman

    don't you dare loose this election!!!!!

    November 5, 2012 09:21 am at 9:21 am |
  6. chilly g

    TOMORROW will be a great day at our house because we will be celebrating the reelection of the president.

    November 5, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  7. Chris

    I'm so nervous! Please reelect Obama Americans! The world needs him!

    November 5, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  8. Critical Thinking

    CNN, get real.

    Monday, November 05, 2012

    Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%.

    November 5, 2012 09:44 am at 9:44 am |
  9. Expat American

    White Collar K Street versus Blue Collar Rural Virginia.
    Bring in home in VA Mr. President!

    November 5, 2012 10:14 am at 10:14 am |
  10. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    It is a toss up and should be fun to watch. Romney really needs to win it in order to be compedative. If he loses VA and FL, then he'd have to make it up with a lot of other states that he doesn't look like he is going to win.

    November 5, 2012 10:28 am at 10:28 am |
  11. GI Joe

    It's a shame they have to wait 2 more years to get rid of Gov. Ultra-Sound.

    November 5, 2012 10:33 am at 10:33 am |
  12. v_mag

    On Wednesday, we may see which side disappears from these CNN comments. Maybe the progressives, maybe the right wingers. Either way, very few people will be truly satisfied. Obama-haters will have a president-elect that they are not enthusiastic about, or Bush/Romney-haters will still have a president who has not lived up to expectations totally.

    If we get Obama again, it may be more of the grid-locked same if Repugnants still control Congress. If we get Womney and a Repugnant or compliant Democratic Congress, it could get very bad very quickly. Either way, we will have a very long way to go before things are generally good for America and people can begin to speak to each other civilly again. Most of what changes by Wednesday will depend on who sits in Congress.

    November 5, 2012 10:55 am at 10:55 am |