Poll: Clinton vs. TBA Republican in 2016
July 24th, 2013
01:01 PM ET
9 months ago

Poll: Clinton vs. TBA Republican in 2016

Washington (CNN) - A new national poll adds more evidence, if it were needed, that Hillary Clinton would start out as the overwhelming frontrunner in the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, if the former secretary of state makes a second run for the White House.

And the McClatchy-Marist survey, released Wednesday, is also in line with other polls in suggesting the race for the Republican nomination, at least in this early pre-season, is a wide open contest, with no obvious frontrunner among the possible contenders.

According to the poll, 63% of Democrats and independents who lean toward the party say they would back Clinton as their presidential nominee. Vice President Joe Biden comes in a distant second, at 13%, with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6%, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley at 1%, and nearly one in five unsure.

Even though the next race for the White House is a long way away, there's already intense speculation over whether Clinton will make a second bid for president. When asked just before she stepped down earlier this year as secretary of state whether she was thinking of making another run for president, Clinton said, "I am not thinking about anything like that right now."

Asked in an interview with CNN later that day if she had decided against another presidential candidacy, Clinton responded that "I have absolutely no plans to run." But she added: "I am lucky because I've been very healthy. I feel great. I've got enormous amounts of energy that have to be harnessed and focused, so I'm very fortunate. I'm looking forward to this next chapter in my life, whatever it is."

And the profile on her new Twitter account, which was unveiled this spring, listed her future as "TBD," which only fueled speculation she's not finished with presidential politics.

There's also lots of speculation about Biden making a third bid for the Democratic nomination.

"I can die a happy man never having been president of the United States of America. But it doesn't mean I won't run," the vice president said in an interview with GQ magazine that was published online last week.

Governors Cuomo and O'Malley are also considered possible 2016 contenders.

The poll also asks whether Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a nominee who will continue President Barack Obama's policies. Forty-six percent say they do, with 44% saying they want a nominee with a new vision.

The survey indicates no obvious frontrunner on the GOP side. Fifteen percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would support New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as their nominee, with Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, at 13% and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 12%.

One in ten say they would back former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 9%, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 7%, Texas governor and 2012 GOP presidential candidate Rick Perry at 4%, 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 2%, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 2% and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez each at 1%. One in four remains undecided.

According to the survey, by a more than two to one margin, Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they'd prefer a nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win.

The McClatchy-Marist poll was conducted July 15-18, with 1,204 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The sampling error for questions of Democrats is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points for questions of Republicans.


Filed under: 2016 • Polls
soundoff (19 Responses)
  1. Wake up People!

    Jesus Christ! Didn't we JUST have a Presidential election less than 9 months ago??? Can we get some things done before we start speculating about 2016, which is more than 3 years away??? Is this what we have to look forward to for the next 40 months????

    I'm really getting sick of the MSM.

    July 24, 2013 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  2. Woman In California

    2016. Whose in and whose not? One thing is for sure, I will never vote republican. Even if that means I might have to stay home, skip the election and regret my decision. Oh well, time will tell.

    July 24, 2013 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  3. Marie MD

    Can we wait a couple more years?

    July 24, 2013 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  4. Borderless

    Not surprising.

    July 24, 2013 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  5. Fair is Fair

    She was the "overwhelming favorite" in 2008, if I recall.

    July 24, 2013 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  6. just sayin

    by the time the election cycle starts, the truth about benghazi will be out. clinton, obama and the democrats cannot cover it up forever. now some of the survivors are starting to speak out. it will become painfully obvious that hillary clinton was derelict in her duties and did nothing to help her employees that were under attack and eventually died.

    July 24, 2013 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  7. Gurgyl

    I am too sick and tired of these idiots, not even half year–waiting for fight. First these idiots better work for nation, one guy was WARS, this guy is bringing a whole lot of foreigners on IU, Doctors–ignoring the consequences, they come to rob our benefits. Congress idiots are not at all working. Shame, pathetic–in USA.

    July 24, 2013 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  8. Data Driven

    Article sez that by a more than 2 to 1 margin, Republicans prefer a whackjob, any whackjob, to a nominee who can win.

    Hope you like Democratic presidents, conservatives, cuz that's what yer gonna get, with that attitude.

    I think even Biden can beat Paul, for instance.

    July 24, 2013 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  9. Al-NY,NY

    According to the survey, by a more than two to one margin, Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they'd prefer a nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win.
    ----

    well then the gop had better get used to NOT occupying the WH because that description fits ALL mentioned above except Christie and none of those have a chance in Hades of winning

    "Benghazi, Whitewater, Vince Foster.....Benghazi, Whitewater, Vince Foster......" too bad righties but none of these bogus claims will prevent her from beating the pants off your "consrvative" candidate

    July 24, 2013 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  10. Donna

    Well, if it isn't Clinton, it is the Gaff-O-Matic Joe Biden. Besides those two, who do the Democrats have? Nobody. Their bench is not weak, it is non-existent.

    July 24, 2013 02:04 pm at 2:04 pm |
  11. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Benghazi, Whitewater, Vince Foster.....Benghazi, Whitewater, Vince Foster......"

    Ditto that, Al. She hasn't even announced yet, and that is all we hear from Hannity's crowd of talking parrots. We might just as well get used to it now ... it's going to be a long, long (and very boring) 3 years.

    July 24, 2013 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  12. Donkey Party

    Shouldn't it be "TBAG" instead of "TBA"?

    July 24, 2013 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  13. simplyput

    Well, why have an election then, right CNN?

    July 24, 2013 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  14. Downhill We Go

    Great – more years of failure. We only need to look at the working models of leftist ideological policies (see Detroit amongst others). It doesn't work and is monetarily unsustainable. This is not how we were founded. Nation best best prospers under a center-right ideology. Its been proven. Not far right – not far left (or even left) [See History]

    July 24, 2013 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  15. Mikey

    "by the time the election cycle starts, the truth about benghazi will be out"
    ***********************************************************
    This coming from a right wing cheerleader who has absolutely no clue as to what the "truth about Benghazi" is. Too funny. You teabuggers are just too funny.

    July 24, 2013 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  16. California Gary

    Not true Donna.........the Dems have a few very impressive governors out there to put on the bench.......any one of which would outshine whoever emerges from the GOP blood letting and who can move furthest to the right and say the craziest things contest (the primaries).

    July 24, 2013 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  17. Rudy NYC

    I loved the Republican presidential polls from 2011 the kept showing "unnamed candidate" in the lead over whomever was the favorite of the month.

    July 24, 2013 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  18. Mike B

    It's a little premature to be talking about 2016. Back in 2005, '06 and '07 Hillary was supposed to be a lock for the nomination in 2008.

    July 24, 2013 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  19. Palin Power

    Hillary will stand no chance against Sarah Palin in 2016! Sarah Palin will easily dismantle and PWN Hillary. We are going to have 8 years of President Palin.

    July 24, 2013 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |