2016 Poll: Clinton vs. [Insert Republican here]
October 2nd, 2013
10:56 AM ET
12 months ago

2016 Poll: Clinton vs. [Insert Republican here]

Washington (CNN) - A new national poll offers more evidence that Hillary Clinton, if she runs, would be the overwhelming frontrunner in the battle for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

A Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday also indicates that the fight for the Republican nomination would be a wide open contest, and that Clinton holds double digit leads over potential GOP contenders in hypothetical general election matchups.

According to the poll, just over six in 10 Democrats and independents who lean toward the party say they would back the former secretary of state for their party's nomination, far ahead of the 11% supporting Vice President Joe Biden. Seven percent say they'd back Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with  2% saying they'd vote for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. No other candidate topped 1% in the survey.

The poll is very similar to a CNN/ORC International survey on the potential 2016 race that was conducted in early September, and with previous polls from other organizations conducted earlier this year that also indicated Clinton, who has not said whether she'll run, standing far above of all the other possible Democratic candidates.

Even though the next race for the White House is a long way away, there's already intense speculation over whether the former first lady, senator, and 2008 Democratic White House candidate, will make a second bid for president.

"I'm not in any hurry. I think it's a serious decision, not to be made lightly, but it's also not one that has to be made soon," Clinton told New York Magazine last month, in her first interview since retiring as secretary of state at the beginning of this year.

"As she watches the hand-to-hand political combat in Washington, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains above the fray and the queen of the 2016 mountain," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "We've got a long way to 2016, but at this point she looks very, very strong."

As with the CNN survey from earlier in September and other polls from earlier this year, the new Quinnipiac survey also indicates no GOP frontrunner among the potential Republican White House hopefuls.

Seventeen percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they support Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, with 13% backing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 12% supporting Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 11% backing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 10% each supporting Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget chairman and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, with 3% backing Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

The Quinnipiac poll did not ask about former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a 2012 Republican presidential candidate who battled eventual nominee Mitt Romney deep into the GOP primary season.

Rubio's number stands out. The first-term senator, considered a rock star among many Republicans, dropped seven percentage points from Quinnipiac's April poll on 2016, when he stood at 19%.

Rubio's support of immigration reform - he was a high profile member of a bipartisan group of senators who pushed immigration reform passage through the Senate this spring - may have hurt his standing with many conservative voters opposed to such efforts.

Ryan also dropped seven points, from 17% to 10%, since Quinnipiac's April survey. Cruz, who stands at 10% now, was not included in the April poll.

In potential general election showdowns, the poll indicates Clinton leading Christie 49%-36%, topping Paul 53%-36% and beating Cruz 54%-31%.

While such early surveys are eye catching and interesting to read, polls taken two to three years before an election have absolutely no predictive value and should not be treated as a barometer of what will happen in 2016.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted September 23-29, with 1,497 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (17 Responses)
  1. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    Hillary v. Bush, Romney, Christie, Paul, Cruz

    What difference does it make? We know that after this week, that we're no longer entrusting responsibility into the hands of republicans.

    CLINTON/WARREN 2016

    October 2, 2013 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  2. Wake up People!

    Good lord, isn't this the exact same article from about a month ago? I like Hillary as much as the next person but why don't we concentrate on the here and now? We just had a presidential election 11 months ago. Don't you think it's time for you to concentrate on the current POTUS and the problems he's having with the traitors in the GOP?

    I get it now. Fox-lite was for Hillary in 2008, which explains a helluva lot. You could at least wait until she makes her announcement. With all of this constant coverage of Hillary, I'm beginning to hope someone else steps up. I don't even know if I want her now. Thanks Fox-lite.

    October 2, 2013 11:03 am at 11:03 am |
  3. Data Driven

    CNN is already bored with the shutdown story, so it's back to ClintonWatch.

    "Polls taken two to three years before an election have absolutely no predictive value"

    Why upload this story, then? Here's an idea: explain to your readers what the "Hastert rule" is. There are many elements of the shutdown crisis that you haven't reported on.

    October 2, 2013 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  4. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Here's an idea: explain to your readers what the "Hastert rule" is. There are many elements of the shutdown crisis that you haven't reported on."

    Hear! Hear! I'll second that ...

    October 2, 2013 11:10 am at 11:10 am |
  5. Sniffit

    Uh oh, GOPers/Teatrolls...you better get back to the drawing board and pass more voter suppression laws! Make sure you send your predictions on how it will change Dem turnout to all the polling companies so they can alter their definitions of "likely voter" accordingly.

    October 2, 2013 11:12 am at 11:12 am |
  6. kirk

    And this is why the gop absolutely hates her, they wet themselves at the thought of having to run against her, but its a long ways off. Its funny how one little woman can inspire soooo much fear, glad to hear it.from black man to a woman, no wonder the rich old white guys are pissed, its their own fault, people are tiring of the mass scale inequality, and the gop has no other plan, what choice do I have?

    October 2, 2013 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  7. Randy, San Francisco

    After this stupid shutdown stunt by the Republican Tea Party, the majority of Americans will be so angry that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency by a landslide in 2016. She will have a supportive US Senate and House of Representatives controlled by Democrats.

    October 2, 2013 11:18 am at 11:18 am |
  8. freedom

    Is CNN that desperate to get Hilary elected that they have to inject her name in the middle of a government shut-down? Don't think that's gonna work out so well. She left American diplomats and soldiers to die in Benghazi, and Obama is wanting to arrest WWII veterans for visiting a Memorial site dedicated to them. The legacy of Obama is turning from first black president to anit-American narcissist pretty fast. Although many of us knew this already. Doesn't matter what color or gender you are. Either you have the integrity to lead this great nation, or you don't.

    October 2, 2013 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  9. Rudy NYC

    In potential general election showdowns, the poll indicates Clinton leading Christie 49%-36%, topping Paul 53%-36% and beating Cruz 54%-31%.
    ------------------------
    Gee, look at that. The guy who is supposed to have a reputation for reaching across the aisle and compromising appears to have the best chance of winning an election, not the "no compromise" right wing hard liners. Makes sense. Too bad the Tea Party will probably dismiss this poll as flawed. I know for a fact that their polling shows differently.

    I think that people need to understand that the hard right is winning the argument within the GOTP. The far right have a stronger argument than more moderate conservatives, because "facts" seem to be on their side. Republicans picked a conservative more moderate than most in 2008, and lost. Republicans went hard to the right in 2010, and won. Republicans picked a seemingly moderate conservative in 2012, and lost. The hard line results speak for themselves.

    October 2, 2013 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
  10. Fair is Fair

    Dems better hope she runs. Pretty weak bench otherwise.

    October 2, 2013 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  11. Fair is Fair

    Randy, San Francisco

    "She will have a supportive US Senate and House of Representatives controlled by Democrats."
    --------
    Wanna bet?

    October 2, 2013 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  12. GSMITH

    Anybody that votes for a Democrat ever is out of there mind. Barack Obama is the worst and most dangerous human being ever to become President.

    October 2, 2013 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  13. Silence DoGood

    @freedom "Benghazi"

    You said the magic word again thanks. Between public view of Repub's shutting down government over a legal law already on the books which didn't stop the law, and zombies wandering around mumbling "benghazi", a Republican will have a very tough time getting elected to anything.

    October 2, 2013 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  14. tiffinS

    WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES THIS STORY MAKE NOW! (fingernails on chalkboard)

    Billary – On similarities to Bengahzi

    October 2, 2013 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  15. Silence DoGood

    @GSMITH "Anybody that votes for a Democrat ever is out of there mind."
    Are you trying to be a stereotype? Tell me you want Creationism taught instead of science as well.

    October 2, 2013 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  16. Rick McDaniel

    That will be a NO vote for Clinton, I don't care who runs against her.........they will have to be a better option.

    October 2, 2013 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  17. freedom

    @Silence

    You are mocking Benghazi and the heinous neglect of our Sec of State and President is just wrong – just like Hilary did. This travesty is not going to go away.... until someone is held accountable. And – any American has the right to oppose a law that's on the books and fight that it be taken off. That's the free country we live in – we are not a dictatorship.

    October 2, 2013 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |