NYC mayoral poll: Democrat holds near-historic lead
October 28th, 2013
08:40 AM ET
11 months ago

NYC mayoral poll: Democrat holds near-historic lead

Updated 10/28/2013 at 9:58am

(CNN) - With just over a week to go until Election Day, Democrat Bill DeBlasio maintains his overwhelming lead in the race for New York City mayor.

According to a New York Times/Siena College Poll released Monday morning, 68% of likely voters say they're backing DeBlasio, the city's public advocate, with 23% supporting Republican candidate Joe Lhota, the former chairman of the city's transit authority and deputy mayor to then-GOP Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

DeBlasio's 45-point lead is down slightly from his 49-point lead in the previous New York Times/Siena College poll from early October, and similar to his 44-point leads in Quinnipiac University survey from last week and an NBC New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey from two weeks ago.

"Approaching the homestretch of the campaign to choose New York's first new mayor in 12 years, Bill de Blasio is poised to win a lopsided victory over Joe Lhota," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. "Over the last few weeks, Lhota has picked up a few undecided voters, however, he has failed in cutting into the more than two-thirds of likely voters who continue to support de Blasio."

If DeBlasio's lead holds up, it would be the largest margin of victory by a non-incumbent in New York history. And a DeBlasio victory on November 5 would make him the first Democrat to win a mayoral election in nearly 25 years.

There's still a third and final debate left in the race, but the poll suggests the contest is over, with 87% of likely voters, including three-quarters of Lhota supporters, saying they think DeBlasio will win.

"De Blasio is supported by three-quarters of Manhattan and Bronx voters, and two-thirds of Brooklyn and Queens voters," Greenberg said. " He leads Lhota 55%-38% among white voters, and de Blasio is backed by 90% of black and 76% percent of Latino voters. While Lhota has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, de Blasio does even better among Democrats, and has a two-to-one lead among independents, in a city with six times as many Democrats as Republicans."

The final debate was rescheduled from Tuesday, October 29 to Wednesday, October 30 when the two candidates issued a rare joint statement asking that their last showdown not coincide with the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy.

The winner of the election will succeed three-term Republican turned independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

The New York Times/Siena College Poll was conducted October 21-26, with 701 likely voters in New York City questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.


Filed under: Bill de Blasio • New York • New York mayoral race
soundoff (17 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    The polls were much tighter two weeks ago. What changed? The easiest conclution to draw is that the mayoral debates changed everything. I guess voters got a good look at Lhota and are deciding against a Tea Party mayor.

    October 28, 2013 09:01 am at 9:01 am |
  2. Tampa Tim

    49 point lead has evaporated to 45. By this time next week, it could be 41, if Sarah Palin gets involved.

    October 28, 2013 09:03 am at 9:03 am |
  3. Data Driven

    More gloomy news for Republicans. NYC has been known to elect Republican mayors. The fact that Lhota isn't even close is probably indicative of a general distaste for Republicanism rather than a comment on De Blasio's awesomeness. Add this to McAuliffe's surprising lead in Virginia, and you don't have to be an augur to see which way the sacred chickens are dancing in 2014.

    October 28, 2013 09:13 am at 9:13 am |
  4. cumulus

    Paying attention yet Republicans? Here's your sign, Virginia is going Democratic too .could it be America is waking up? Remember 95% of wealth went to the top 1%, so don't fall for the trickle down economic b.s., or the gop fighting against tax hikes for the wealthy, the record inequality today is a result of that mentality started by Reagan. And the trend is getting worse, this is class warfare whether you want it or not. Ike had the tkl tax rate at over 90%, the rich were still rich the poor still poor, but the working class had a much higher standard if living, taken away for record profits and astronomical earnings for the bankers and big business, the gop does nothing for you

    October 28, 2013 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  5. ST

    I am glad to hear these good news. We, Dems, always make history and will continue to do so. Anyone to remind me when was history made from our friends on the other side?

    October 28, 2013 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  6. Norma Vessels

    So good to hear!

    October 28, 2013 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  7. Durundal

    Shocking, a Democrat mayor coming ahead in a blue state....what will they think of next.

    October 28, 2013 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  8. Rick McDaniel

    The corrupt and criminal, are happy to vote in a candidate, who will look the other way, and not interfere with their criminal activities.

    October 28, 2013 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  9. smith

    Home of the occupy movement, not a big surprise. Westren Ny is awesome the eastren part is a pile of poop.

    October 28, 2013 10:10 am at 10:10 am |
  10. Malory Archer

    Rick McDaniel

    The corrupt and criminal, are happy to vote in a candidate, who will look the other way, and not interfere with their criminal activities.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    What are you talking about?! The rethug is losing – and by an embarrassingly GINORMOUS margin no less!

    October 28, 2013 10:10 am at 10:10 am |
  11. Lolo

    Hey GOP/TP do you believe in polls now? LOL!!!!!!!!!! We are not voting the nuts back in to keep destroying America. If you can't get with the program we will not re-elect you period. Can't wait until the mid-terms so that we can see the GOP/TP meltdown again, not unless they get away with stopping the vote and stealing them, since they are trying to change the voting laws to favor them. If they can't beat you they will surely cheat you. That is the GOP/TP slogan.

    October 28, 2013 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  12. bill

    think chicago or detroit.

    October 28, 2013 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  13. Ol' Yeller

    @Rick McDaniel

    "The corrupt and criminal, are happy to vote in a candidate, who will look the other way, and not interfere with their criminal activities."

    Yeah, but that was only 23%, so they probably won't win.
    Probably why he is losing.... but otherwise, good point (sheesh)

    October 28, 2013 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  14. rs

    Durundal

    Shocking, a Democrat mayor coming ahead in a blue state....what will they think of next.
    ______________________
    Duh. Their current mayor is a three-term Republican.

    October 28, 2013 10:28 am at 10:28 am |
  15. rs

    Rick McDaniel

    The corrupt and criminal, are happy to vote in a candidate, who will look the other way, and not interfere with their criminal activities.
    ________________________
    Absolutely correct! However, there just aren't enough of them (TEA Partiers) in NYC to vote in the GOP candidate, so your assessment is wrong (again).

    October 28, 2013 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  16. cumulus

    Are all the gop bloggers on here idiots or what? Not one has said one true statement, wow! No wonder they are losing big time, that darn messaging problem, their messaging works fine for those who don't want facts interfering with their hatred, the rest of us know the dems aren't good, but the gop is pure evil.

    October 28, 2013 10:36 am at 10:36 am |
  17. wendel

    thank goodness New Yorkers see the light.

    October 28, 2013 10:39 am at 10:39 am |