Florida poll: Clinton, Bush neck-and-neck
November 22nd, 2013
08:42 AM ET
8 months ago

Florida poll: Clinton, Bush neck-and-neck

(CNN) - In the crucial swing state of Florida, former Gov. Jeb Bush appears to be the top contender among a crop of potential GOP presidential candidates, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite for Democratic voters, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University survey also indicates that if the two were to square off in an election held today, Clinton would barely edge out Bush, 47%-45%.

The 2-point margin falls well within the poll's sampling error.

Released Friday, the poll shows Bush would top a GOP primary race in the state at 22%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio slightly behind at 18%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 14%, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 12%.

No other Republican candidate would get more than 9%, with 12% undecided, according to the poll.

On the Democratic side, the primary would be far less divided. Clinton would take 70% of the Democratic vote, with Vice President Joe Biden at a distant second with 9%. Ten percent would be undecided.

"Florida Democrats have eyes for no one but Hillary; seven in 10 back her for the nomination in 2016 and no one else is in double digits," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a news release.

"The GOP nomination fight is another story," he added. "It is a forgone conclusion that the 2016 GOP nomination fight in Florida will be very competitive."

Related: Hillary, Jeb in spotlight before Bush library dedication

In general election matchups, Clinton would be two percentage points ahead of Bush in Florida, but she would have a wider advantage over other potential GOP candidates. If the general election were held today, Clinton would best Christie by a margin of 45%-41%; Rubio, 50%-43%; and Cruz, 52%-36%.

"She is neck-and-neck with former Gov. Jeb Bush and has a narrow lead over Chris Christie," Brown said. "Another Florida favorite son, Sen. Marco Rubio, doesn't fare as well."

If she were to compete against Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, she'd topple him, 51%-41%, and she would defeat Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 50%-42%, the poll shows.

None of the polled candidates have announced White House bids, but many have fueled speculation with high-profile speaking engagements or flat-out stated that they're considering a run for president.

Bush ginned up more attention around a potential campaign when he touted his conservative credentials this week at a public forum. The former Florida Governor, however, said he hasn't yet made up his mind about running for president.

"There's a time to make a decision," he said Monday. "You shouldn't make it too early, you shouldn't make it too late. There's a time. There's a window. And this is not the time for me. This is the time to show a little self-restraint."

In an interview with Jay Leno on Tuesday on NBC's "The Tonight Show," former President George W. Bush said his brother should "run for president if he wants to. He'd be a great one."

For the survey, Quinnipiac interviewed 1,646 registered voters by telephone from November 12-17. The overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Florida • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Polls
soundoff (16 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    It would seem that Rant Paul is not a popular guy in the state of Florida. No wonder he's been making so much noise, trying to pick fights. Paul finished among the miscellaneous, exactly where he belongs.

    November 22, 2013 09:07 am at 9:07 am |
  2. Gurgyl

    Never vote for another Bush in USA History–are these idiots buying USA or what. Mess is enough. Be educated–don't be bunch of idiotic Morgans.

    November 22, 2013 09:14 am at 9:14 am |
  3. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    I'm not a follower of polls, but that's two polls that Hillary edges out the hometown guy in their own state. Can you say INEVITABLE?

    CLINTON/WARREN 2016

    November 22, 2013 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  4. current state of the union

    Anyone even considering a bush vote owes it to themselves and others a quick Google of their family, and then we won't have to worry about going through the worst time in 75 years all over again, tiger can't change its stripes no matter what its saying

    November 22, 2013 09:24 am at 9:24 am |
  5. ST

    Will you CNN please stop all these fantasies? It is time consuming for nothing.

    November 22, 2013 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
  6. current state of the union

    Will it be hot in Daytona beach on new years holiday?

    November 22, 2013 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  7. Rick McDaniel

    Clinton is an example of what's wrong in America..........nothing but a symbol of the political corruption that pervades all of the Democratic party.

    November 22, 2013 09:41 am at 9:41 am |
  8. Randy, San Francisco

    The latest poll numbers must be discouraging for Republican Tea Party candidates. It must be frustrating for Republiocan political operatives and conservative talk show entertainers to see little return for their attacks against Hillary. Changing demographics and Hillary's popularity will lead to the first woman president in 2016!

    November 22, 2013 09:41 am at 9:41 am |
  9. jinx9to88

    Funny how a representative can't win in their own state. Take Mittens for example.

    November 22, 2013 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  10. Data Driven

    Sorry, Jeb. You may be popular in Florida, but eve so, you're only tied with Clinton down there.

    You won't be president. Blame your brother.

    November 22, 2013 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  11. RIchard Long

    “I think whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, it’s important not to vote for people who proudly say they will never compromise,” – Hillary Clinton

    After stabbing Obama squarely in the back, it is time to ride the Hillary 2016 train!

    November 22, 2013 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  12. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Oh puleeze, even his mother said no more bushes in the White House, and she was not referring to shrubs.
    This poll was taken in the state of Florida, what would you expect?
    Oh wait..there was that situation with Mittens NOT taking his state own state.

    November 22, 2013 10:04 am at 10:04 am |
  13. Larry in Houston

    Oh CNN, give it a Break !! You guys have been putting her on a pedestal ever since Cafferty left, and he was doing the same thing.....WoW !! Do you guys think she 's going to throw her hat into the ring "IF" or "when" (whichever applies) there is a Republican majority in Congress, come 2014 ? huh ? Come on, get real....

    Hat to break the bad news to you, CNN, but the Obama regime has just sealed the deal.....The # 1 failure is the health care rollout, and may stay that way, til it gets repealed......The # 2 failure is the "nuclear option" that 'ol harry opted with.......Hope you see what I mean.....The Voters aren't going to forget that stuff, when November 2014 rolls around, believe me.

    November 22, 2013 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  14. smith

    Well, Jeb might have a chance considering how bad Obama is doing.
    Bush(2000-2008)=bad.
    Obama(2009-)=worse.

    November 22, 2013 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  15. conniesz

    So Jeb isn't ahead even in his home state of Florida – that doesn't sound promising at all.

    November 22, 2013 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  16. Thomas

    It's down to another Clinton or another Bush .

    I'll go with a clinton.

    The new aristocracy

    November 22, 2013 10:47 am at 10:47 am |