November 26th, 2013
06:00 AM ET
8 months ago

CNN/ORC poll: Democrats lose 2014 edge following Obamacare uproar

Washington (CNN) – What a difference a month makes.

A new CNN/ORC International poll indicates a dramatic turnaround in the battle for control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.

Democrats a month ago held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.

That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.

But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge.

The new survey was conducted last week and released Tuesday.

The 10-point swing follows a political uproar over Obamacare, which included the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov and controversy over insurance policy cancelations due primarily to the new health law.

The turnaround in the CNN/ORC poll follows similar shifts in recent national surveys from Quinnipiac University and Fox News.

At a news conference two weeks ago, President Barack Obama acknowledged that problems plaguing the startup of the new healthcare law could hurt Democrats.

"There is no doubt that our failure to rollout the ACA smoothly has put a burden on Democrats, whether they are running or not because they stood up and supported this effort through thick and thin," Obama said.

The CNN/ORC poll, released as the President makes a West Coast campaign fundraising swing on behalf of fellow Democrats, indicates both parties making gains within their base.

"It looks like the biggest shifts toward the Republicans came among white voters, higher-income Americans, and people who live in rural areas, while Democrats have gained strength in the past month among some of their natural constituencies, such as non-white voters and lower-income Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

"If those patterns persist into 2014, it may indicate that Obamacare is popular among those who it was designed to help the most, but unpopular among the larger group of voters who are personally less concerned about health insurance and health care," Holland said.

Republicans currently have a 17-seat advantage in the U.S. House with the Democrats holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate.

While the generic ballot question is one of the most commonly used indicators when it comes to the battle for Congress, the poll results are a long way from predicting what will happen next November.

"There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast and the 'generic ballot' question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections," Holland cautions.

"A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a six-point lead on the generic ballot but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup," he said.

The poll was conducted November 18-20 for CNN by ORC International, with 843 adult Americans, including 749 registered voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2014 • CNN/ORC poll • Congress
soundoff (885 Responses)
  1. Peach

    EVERYTHING this president touches turns to C R A P--now he has a trust problem, which is a HUGE issue, plus he's a pathological liar.

    November 26, 2013 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  2. wm Scot

    What a bunch of uninformed idiots. Who are the these people. The party that wanted to put us back into another recession a month ago change because of the media drum beats against problems with the implementation of something that will benefit our nation !
    We are a nation of sheep !

    November 26, 2013 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  3. Biff Omney

    Wow, you mean the Republicans made gains among rich white people? I can't believe it.

    November 26, 2013 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  4. time2wakeup

    Obama 2011: "Shovel-ready was not as ... uh .. shovel-ready as we expected."
    Obama 2014: "Affordable Care Act was not as ... uh .. affordable as we expected."

    November 26, 2013 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  5. Rudy NYC

    BCF wrote:

    OK....so you have no clue what you're talking about. Almost every European nation including Russia provided the US with their own information stating they believed that Iraq had WMDs. Bush disclosed this to the Senate and House and people like Hillary Clinton and a number of others agreed that the evidance was conclusive that Iraq had WMDs and voted in favor of war especially when Saddam held U.N. WIs outside of facilities and had military vechicals leave the back of the facilities with unknown contents.
    ------------------------–
    Bush did not disclose any of his sources of information. Claimed that he needed to extra protective and cautious because of the 9/11 attacks, and did not want to compromise the intelligence sources.

    Almost every other European nation was working with intelligence provided to them by the U.S. The Russians didn't have anything to do with it. To suggest that the Russians, who Bush adamantly would not speak to, would share intelligence with the U.S. is ridiculous. Did they share intel about the Boston Marathon bombing suspects? No. Wow, you right wingers live in an alternate, confabulated reality.

    November 26, 2013 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  6. KeninTexas

    I had always thought that those who have called for Obama to be impeached, were extreme. But he continues to show blatant disregard for the law and the people he is supposed to represent. So I say to all, it is time to impeach Obama for these outrageous actions. Corruption, lying to congress and the American people and failure to uphold the laws of the United States by ordering them either ignored or just not enforced

    November 26, 2013 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  7. SamT

    Does anyone else have the uneasy feeling that we are given two options, and only two options? Does anyone else feel that's by design? Don't buy into the false left/right/liberal/conservative/Republican/Democrat paradigm. Unless of course you're a Socialist, because even the Republicans are for a Socialist Republic (socialism through big business) vs. Social Democracy (socialism through government). If that doesn't make sense to you, wake up and look around.

    November 26, 2013 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  8. Me

    Malory Archer

    YeahRight

    Romney led Obama by 5 points going into the 2012 election, too. The rule of thumb is that, in order to overcome the ballot-stuffing, cheating, and voting dead democrats, republicans need a 10 point margin in the polls to win an election.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Right, because all those voter purge and suppression efforts (for which there is proof) in rethug states just weren't enough to sway the pendulum. BTW, can you provide CREDIBLE proof of your "ballot-stuffing, cheating, and voting dead democrats" claims? No? Didn't think so, but thanks for playing!
    _____________
    Just as blind as ever malory, YES there are people ON CAMERA stating they voted for Obama multiple times so yes there is proof of cheating!!! Second, your suppression claims have been proven FALSE based on the election this year, voter turnout increased SIGNIFCANTLY (hundreds of percent increases in many states that approved voter ID laws) compared to the previous off year elections (and yes it is apples to apples because they compared it to the same type of election previous!!!) so the PROOF you talk about PROVES YOU WRONG!!! LOL

    November 26, 2013 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  9. steve

    They have an advantage till they have to tell the voters about their own healthcare ideas thenall anyone hears is ultrasound and drug testing.

    November 26, 2013 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  10. Rudy NYC

    Dave

    "Batrix",

    The government shut down is all on Obama a d Reid. Anyone paying attention now understand this. It was their refusal to negotiate just the MANDATE implementation schedule with the Republicans which forced the shut down. The republicans had already compromised and conceded to let the ACA go into effect. They only wanted to delay the MANDATE portion because, as they stated over and over, it was not ready.
    ----------------------
    NICE TRY. You cannot "let the ACA go into effect" and delay the MANDATE portion at the same time. The mandate is the law. Oh yeah, BTW, Sen. Ted Cruz has taken full credit and ownership for the shutdown. He did it shortly after the shutdown ended. Anyone paying attention would have known this.

    November 26, 2013 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  11. dannyCali

    "A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge". I disagree with this poll, what is GOP has done for this country???? none...... nothing at all. All the GOP done is no and no, for me I'm going to vote for DEM in 2014.

    November 26, 2013 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  12. dorsh44

    I'd be happy if anyone had an advantage for actually doing good and accomplishing something for the people. That its seemingly always one or the other hurting this country to give the other the "advantage" is very telling of the sorry state of our politics and politicians.

    November 26, 2013 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  13. jn122736

    If everything follows the usual course republicans will take over all branches of the government in 2016 because voters are easily manipulated into either forgetting the fiascoes of their previous leadership (bush/Cheney) .

    Over the past 3 decades republican administrations have cut taxes and drove the country into the gutter and when democrats are reelected they raise taxes to bring the economy back. When Reagan took office in 1981 the national debt was less than $1 trillion allowing him to cut taxes and (without much objection) borrow the money to cover the loss of revenue, and when Bush Jr took office the economy was booming and the budget deficits were greatly reduced and his administration was able to again cut taxes and borrow the money to cover not only the loss in tax revenur but the costs of the Iraq/Afghanistan fiascoes, and when anyone mentioned the fast growing national debt Cheney famously claimed that “Reagan proved that the debt doesn’t matter”.

    The greatest difference this time is that Democrats (Obama) hasn’t raise taxes, indeed they didn’t even let the previous Bush tax cuts to expire as scheduled, and the national debt is now at or near $17 trillion and rising and the economy has not recovered from the Bush Cheney great recession and tax cuts. Which means that the ONLY way a republican administration can follow their usual course will be to totally eliminate any un funded welfare programs and gut the income tax-founded SS and Medicare and drastically reduce returns to those who have already paid into the programs for 50+ years and were promised by their government that they could count on it to help in their retirement

    November 26, 2013 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  14. Easterniron

    As those who were not in favor of Obamacare tried to say, this is a redistribution of wealth scheme, taking from the former middle class giving to the even poorer classes. No one wins with this. Jobs are being lost, hours cut and no one is going to get decent healthcare because the exceptional hospitals and drs. are not accepting Obamacare, or are not on plans due to insurance companies having to cover what the government deems non-substandard benefits. And telling people just to "chill" and let it happen, is the most ignorant and uninformed partisan statement. You go and chill. I want the security of GOOD healthcare not the substandard crap the middle class is going to have to settle for.

    November 26, 2013 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  15. oldguy68

    The Democrats had Bush in 08, the Republicans will have Obama in 16. IMO the party that is elected makes the mistake of thinking that the voters like them, when in fact they abhorred the present administration

    November 26, 2013 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  16. Victor Cuadra

    Rudy NYC said: "NICE TRY. You cannot "let the ACA go into effect" and delay the MANDATE portion at the same time. The mandate is the law. Oh yeah, BTW, Sen. Ted Cruz has taken full credit and ownership for the shutdown. He did it shortly after the shutdown ended. Anyone paying attention would have known this."

    Rudy... then why is President Obama delaying the mandate now? If you were paying attention you would have known this....

    November 26, 2013 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  17. Me

    mcp123

    "Record on food stamps, record on SSI disability, record in poverty, highest black unemployment in generations, debt doubled, highest deficits in history"

    Food stamps / SSI / Poverty all increased because of the recession which started under Bush. Don't try to rewrite history... no one is going to forget that.

    Did you expect him to be able to fix unemployment for blacks in just eight years? There are many reason young black people are unemployed not just the fact that in some areas they live there really aren't decent jobs.
    The manufacturing base left long ago... and the jobs that are left don't pay all that well.

    However unemployment has gone down and the situation is continuing to improve.
    ____________
    HELLO the recession supposedly has been over for years LOL. And yes, the unemployment rate recovered for the 2001 recession in less than 2 years but then again we had a republican in the WH so that just makes sense!! Your kind talks out one side of your mouth how good the stock market is and then the other side saying unemployment is still low cause it takes time....can't you keep your lies straight??

    November 26, 2013 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  18. southerngent

    ME
    Not only did some admit it they were proud of it. This is the liberal mentality we see here.

    November 26, 2013 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  19. Mike

    ohhhh the horror !!! no another tea party, Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld kind of people out there .... nooooooo

    November 26, 2013 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  20. Truck

    @ Rudy NYC,the stock market is up because the Fed is printing 85 BILLION$$$$$ a month of worthless $$$$$. The dollar is worth about 60 cents,U moonbat.

    November 26, 2013 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  21. Malory Archer

    Me

    ____________

    Just as blind as ever malory, YES there are people ON CAMERA stating they voted for Obama multiple times so yes there is proof of cheating!!! Second, your suppression claims have been proven FALSE based on the election this year, voter turnout increased SIGNIFCANTLY (hundreds of percent increases in many states that approved voter ID laws) compared to the previous off year elections (and yes it is apples to apples because they compared it to the same type of election previous!!!) so the PROOF you talk about PROVES YOU WRONG!!! LOL

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Anyone can stand in front of a camera and say whatever they've been paid to say. As for your claims that voter suppression claims are false, what do you call the rethugs' attempts to purge voter rolls, and in the case of texass, making voters use provisional ballots (which may or may not be counted, depending on how the vote count is shaping up among other factors) because their name on their voter ID card isn't EXACTLY the same as on their driver license or other state issued ID (something that especially effects women, BTW)?

    November 26, 2013 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  22. vatoloke

    Not to worry Dems. Sooner or later a prominent Repubican mouthpiece will say something stupid and inane, or something ridiculous against women and they will be back to square one. Mark my words.

    November 26, 2013 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  23. str009

    The GOP has one strategy: Tear down the government, then run on the premise that government doesn't work. Cinical. But, when you represent the interests of the very rich, whose only counter to their power is a democratic government of nasty, unwashed, commonfolk, you have a huge vested interest in government not working.

    November 26, 2013 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  24. Dave H

    The scariest part is that these people actually vote. They throw their ideologies to the wind because they want to "send a message" or because a single issue caught their attention. This two party system is a joke. It's designed to keep the real power in place. Big money = big power. Go watch the Matrix. Choice is an illusion, man. Making new tin foil hat this afternoon.

    November 26, 2013 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  25. The Trev

    @dannyCali, what do you mean you disagree with the poll, you retard? you don't make any sense

    November 26, 2013 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
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