2016 Poll: Christie edges out Clinton in Iowa
December 17th, 2013
10:22 AM ET
9 months ago

2016 Poll: Christie edges out Clinton in Iowa

(CNN) - It's arguably the most important state in the race for the White House.

And a new poll suggests that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, Republican Chris Christie would narrowly top Democrat Hillary Clinton in the crucial swing state of Iowa.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, 45% of registered voters in the Hawkeye State say they would back Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, if he were the GOP presidential nominee, with 40% saying they would support Clinton, the former Secretary of State and Senator from New York, if she were the Democratic party's nominee. Christie's five point lead is just outside the survey's sampling error.

Christie and Clinton were deadlocked at 41% in Quinnipiac's July survey. Since then Christie made national headlines for his landslide re-election victory last month in New Jersey over a little known Democratic challenger.

"There is a large gender gap as women back Clinton 49%-39%, while men back Christie 51%-30%. Independent voters back the Republican 44%-35%," according to a release from Quinnipiac University.

Iowa holds an important spot in presidential politics, as its caucuses kick off the caucus and primary calendar. But the state also plays an important role in general elections, as it's considered an much watched swing state with six electoral votes up for grabs. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in his 2004 re-election victory. Then Sen. Barack Obama won Iowa by 10 percentage points over Sen. John McCain in 2008. President Obama carried the state by a smaller six point margin in his 2012 re-election.

Both Christie and Clinton are mulling bids for the White House. If Clinton makes a second run for president, she would instantly be considered the overwhelming frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. And two recent national polls, from CNN/ORC International and Marist-McClatchy indicated that Christie now leads the pack of possible GOP White House hopefuls.

In other hypothetical 2016 general election matchups, the survey suggests Clinton at 45% and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 44%, Clinton topping freshman Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48%-41%, and Clinton leading former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 47%-40%.

The poll indicates by a 46%-30% margin, Iowa voters say Christie would make a good president. The feel the same thing about Clinton by a 53%- 42% margin. Paul, Cruz, Bush and Vice President Joe Biden are underwater when it comes to the question of how they would perform in the Oval Office.

A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend indicated that Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin is the most popular of the possible GOP presidential candidates right now. Seventy-three percent of Iowa Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of the House Budget Chairman and last year's Republican vice presidential nominee, with 2008 GOP presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 66%, 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 58%, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 55% and Christie at 51%.

Eighty-nine percent of Iowa Democrats tested in the poll said they had a favorable view of Clinton, with Biden in second place at 71%.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Dec. 10-15, with 1,617 registered voters in Iowa questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

The Des Moines Register poll was conducted Dec. 8-11, with 650 adults in Iowa questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton • Iowa • Jeb Bush • Joe Biden • Rand Paul • Ted Cruz
soundoff (41 Responses)
  1. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Rudy NYC
    It seems that the only people besides Christie who were aware of the study were the two Christie appointees, who ordered the lane shutdowns.
    -------------------------------------------------
    Qute true.
    I caught a snippet of what appeared to be some kind of hearing in New Jersey where an agency head flat out stated that they couldn't even find an e-mail trail on this study and who authorized it, and, she went on to say, that quite frankly the people in this room were not believing the story that they were being told.
    New Jersey politics. Christie style. And some folks want him to take THAT act on the road?

    December 17, 2013 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  2. Gurgyl

    Look at NJ, with deficit before coming to conclusion, and it's foreigners ruling there....Hillary16.

    December 17, 2013 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  3. Malory Archer

    Sorry smith, but 2016 is a long time away.

    December 17, 2013 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  4. patNY

    A lot can happen in the next couple of years. As the unemployment rate continues to shrink, the stock market continues to rise, economic growth continues to improve, etc., Obama's approval rating will rebound and the next Dem. nominee will have an improved chance of winning the White House in 2016.

    December 17, 2013 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  5. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Sorry guys, you might want to start getting used to hearing, "President Christie". 2016,
    -------------------------------------------------
    Nothing to be sorry about because that's not going to happen, and you know it.

    December 17, 2013 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  6. Sniffit

    "the explanation of the so-called "traffic study" that nobody knew about "

    Senate Chairman of Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation is now calling for an investigation.

    *ahem*...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

    December 17, 2013 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  7. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Even if Christie started owning up to all the skeletons in his closet via a well-puciblized mea culpa, he wouldn't shut up until well past the 2016 election.
    The guy who gets asigned to dig up the grave to bury all of Christie's skeletons would dig a hole to China.
    Christie for President. I wish they would.

    December 17, 2013 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  8. smith

    @Dutch- Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said.

    December 17, 2013 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  9. Ol' Yeller

    @Fair is Fair
    "Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves."

    You may be right... but I doubt it. This will mean a lot to some people. Hard line righties like yourself could care less because it is your guy and you'd discount this even if his sm art a ss answer about placing the cones was in fact the truth (if this were a Dem... you'd be- 'outraged, simply outraged!').
    Many people will see this as the worst thing a politician could do. He used his power for payback for some silly political wrangling and endangered the lives of the people he has sworn to protect and serve. Even regular conservatives (albeit there aren't that many left) would not stand for this.
    Lie during a campaign- easily forgivable- they all do it.
    Cheat on your spouse- oh well, that's between them (It ain't like he is Bill Clinton)
    Racist- Oh, he was taken out of context.
    But to use the power of your position to get petty political payback (especially considering the danger this put some of those people in)... not as easily forgivable.
    Except for hard line righties who would defend their guy if he threw schoolchildren off a 12 story building in broad daylight... on video tape.

    December 17, 2013 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  10. Sniffit

    "New Jersey politics. Christie style. And some folks want him to take THAT act on the road?"

    Assuming the accusations are true, which I'm not willing to say yet, then proof that he vengefully abused his power to bully a Dem mayor and that mayors' entire constituency might just be the help Christie needs in winning over the Teatrolls for the primary.

    December 17, 2013 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  11. Malory Archer

    smith

    @Dutch- Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    What kind of messed up individual uses the death of four Americans to score political points? What kind indeed...

    December 17, 2013 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  12. Al-NY,NY

    smith

    @Dutch- Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said.
    ----

    you forgot Vince Foster and Whitewater in your conspiracy diatribe. Get over it.....

    December 17, 2013 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  13. Ol' Yeller

    @smith

    " Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said."

    Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- turned out it was made up by political foes and went nowhere despite House hearings and a later disgraced 60 Minutes episode where they aired a guy telling some fantasy story he made up AFTER he had told accurate accounts to the actual Investigating agencies.
    Christie`s scandal- a week long traffic nightmare which endangered untold American lives including schoolchildren; all as political payback for a percieved slight by a Mayor of an American city in the state he has sworn to protect and serve. Despite efforts to make this go away, Christie has dug the hole even deeper by trying to enlist the assistance of other Govenor's in the attempted cover-up. The story has now grown to the point even RWNJ's on the political ticker feel the need to try and defend poor Christie . Enough said.
    FIFY

    December 17, 2013 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
  14. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    smith

    @Dutch- Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said
    -------------------------------------------------
    Actually false narrative on Clinton, willful misuse of his political power on Christie. Truthfully said.

    December 17, 2013 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  15. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    smith
    @Dutch- Let`s see, Clinton`s scandal- four american`s died. Christie`s scandal- a minor traffic delay. Enough said.
    ---------------------------------------------–
    It's a scandal in the eyes of those who want it to be a scandal. Even the biggest critics of Benghazi has turned that rhetoric down because there was no scandal. And to use the deaths of 4 Americans to score political points is very pathetic and shows the type of human being you truly are.

    December 17, 2013 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  16. Rudy NYC

    Malory Archer wrote:

    You would think there would be some sort of paper or email trail. Yet, there's nothing.
    --------------------
    Yup, that fact is just more smoke rising out of the gun. It seems the only people who knew were Christie and his two appointees that have both resigned in the past week. Not even the people who did the actual lane closures knew why they were being shutdown. They were just following orders from their immediate superiors. The trail stops at the appointees, who answer only to Christie.

    December 17, 2013 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
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