2016 Poll: Christie edges out Clinton in Iowa
December 17th, 2013
10:22 AM ET
12 months ago

2016 Poll: Christie edges out Clinton in Iowa

(CNN) - It's arguably the most important state in the race for the White House.

And a new poll suggests that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, Republican Chris Christie would narrowly top Democrat Hillary Clinton in the crucial swing state of Iowa.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, 45% of registered voters in the Hawkeye State say they would back Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, if he were the GOP presidential nominee, with 40% saying they would support Clinton, the former Secretary of State and Senator from New York, if she were the Democratic party's nominee. Christie's five point lead is just outside the survey's sampling error.

Christie and Clinton were deadlocked at 41% in Quinnipiac's July survey. Since then Christie made national headlines for his landslide re-election victory last month in New Jersey over a little known Democratic challenger.

"There is a large gender gap as women back Clinton 49%-39%, while men back Christie 51%-30%. Independent voters back the Republican 44%-35%," according to a release from Quinnipiac University.

Iowa holds an important spot in presidential politics, as its caucuses kick off the caucus and primary calendar. But the state also plays an important role in general elections, as it's considered an much watched swing state with six electoral votes up for grabs. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in his 2004 re-election victory. Then Sen. Barack Obama won Iowa by 10 percentage points over Sen. John McCain in 2008. President Obama carried the state by a smaller six point margin in his 2012 re-election.

Both Christie and Clinton are mulling bids for the White House. If Clinton makes a second run for president, she would instantly be considered the overwhelming frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. And two recent national polls, from CNN/ORC International and Marist-McClatchy indicated that Christie now leads the pack of possible GOP White House hopefuls.

In other hypothetical 2016 general election matchups, the survey suggests Clinton at 45% and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 44%, Clinton topping freshman Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48%-41%, and Clinton leading former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 47%-40%.

The poll indicates by a 46%-30% margin, Iowa voters say Christie would make a good president. The feel the same thing about Clinton by a 53%- 42% margin. Paul, Cruz, Bush and Vice President Joe Biden are underwater when it comes to the question of how they would perform in the Oval Office.

A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend indicated that Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin is the most popular of the possible GOP presidential candidates right now. Seventy-three percent of Iowa Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of the House Budget Chairman and last year's Republican vice presidential nominee, with 2008 GOP presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 66%, 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 58%, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 55% and Christie at 51%.

Eighty-nine percent of Iowa Democrats tested in the poll said they had a favorable view of Clinton, with Biden in second place at 71%.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Dec. 10-15, with 1,617 registered voters in Iowa questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

The Des Moines Register poll was conducted Dec. 8-11, with 650 adults in Iowa questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton • Iowa • Jeb Bush • Joe Biden • Rand Paul • Ted Cruz
soundoff (41 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    I listened to MoJoe in the car this morning as they discussed Christie's growing bridge lane shutdown controversy. They were very good at playing dumb, feigning any awaremess the facts. They downplayed the entire issue without once mentioning the reason for the lanes beilng shutdown, which was for a trafic study. Not once were the words "traffic", "study", or "traffic study" ever mentioned. I know who MoJoe wants to be POTUS-45, Chris Christie. Christie harbors too many skeletons, though.

    December 17, 2013 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  2. Thomas

    narrowly ?

    I think not , this is the same poll that said Mitt Romney would win the white house .

    Wait till we see the corn dog at the fair photos .

    December 17, 2013 10:30 am at 10:30 am |
  3. current state of the union

    Romney in a landslide,... we can still win Ohio, really?

    December 17, 2013 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  4. current state of the union

    Chrusty will be toast by the time primary voting is done, he has a lot of baggage he can't ignore.the gop will be in full benghazi mode, fools. Typical gop not knowing when to abandon a topic that is based on lies.

    December 17, 2013 10:42 am at 10:42 am |
  5. Sniffit

    "1,617 registered voters in Iowa questioned by telephone"

    And we're surprised at the results after Iowa's GOP/Teatrolls changed registration requirements and engaged in voter purges?

    December 17, 2013 10:45 am at 10:45 am |
  6. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    George Washington Bridge.......SCANDAL

    December 17, 2013 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  7. Ol' Yeller

    "It's arguably the most important state in the race for the White House."

    And who would argue that it is? 6 electoral votes. The ONLY reason Iowa is ever considered as anything but what it is (a small state which sometimes goes red and sometimes goes blue) is because of the timing of it's caucuses and it's closeness to the general election. Not as big as deal as it used to be, and tea reading a poll of people regarding who they would vote for... people who have not even announced any bid for the nomination, is like polling them about what the weather will be on Nov. 22nd 2014... the answer being, they have no clue.
    Meaningless...

    December 17, 2013 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  8. jinx9to88

    And Iowa pick Mittens. Enough said. Iowa is a non factor.

    December 17, 2013 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  9. Fair is Fair

    Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves.

    December 17, 2013 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  10. Dallas

    Three years out and already they're starting this up! Why not concentrate on what's going on now and moving the country forward but since 2014 is a mid term election once again nothing will get done in D.C. because the tea bags hate Pres. Obama so much! Throw them all out and start fresh and start with Boehner and Canter! Speaking for myself, I will proudly cast my vote for Hillary Clinton!

    December 17, 2013 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
  11. Gurgyl

    Hillary16. Period.

    December 17, 2013 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  12. Sniffit

    "It's arguably the most important state in the race for the White House."

    That's inarguably the silliest "this article is very important" hyperbole I've seen on CNN in a long time.

    December 17, 2013 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  13. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    The lane closing on the George Washignton will be the least of his problems.
    The man couldn't sail past a Romney vetting.
    Let's be serious here.
    After all Christie is being brouhg to you by the same people that gave you Herman "Where-are-all-the-white-women-at Cain".
    Clowns. The whole lot of them.

    December 17, 2013 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  14. Sniffit

    "Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves."

    She screamed breathlessly after alternately yelling "Benghazi" and "Vince Foster" until blue in the face...

    Did you know that one of Christie's buddies that just resigned as a result of this scandal has been scooping up ownership rights to domain names using the names of Christie's biggest Dem opponents? We'll see where this goes.

    December 17, 2013 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  15. Sniffit

    "Why not concentrate on what's going on now and moving the country forward "

    Because CNN and the MSM are not in the business of journalism, they are in the business of selling advertising time/space.

    December 17, 2013 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  16. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    They are feeding us Chris Christie as an appetizer and to throw us off the scent, so to speak.
    I fully expect Turd Cruz to follow as possibly a main course.
    Until they uncover the Huntsmen in their Party the GOP is nothing but a necessary joke in the electoral process.

    December 17, 2013 11:10 am at 11:10 am |
  17. Malory Archer

    Fair is Fair

    Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves.

    December 17, 2013 11:13 am at 11:13 am |
  18. The Real Tom Paine

    Christie's victory last month came without coattails, so the idea that he has fundementally changed the state of NJ is a singles term is grossly misleading. NJ still ranks close to the bottom in terms of job creation, and there is a definite arrogance in the Christie adminstration that makes him and his cronies believe they are beyond criticism. I wonder how his style will go over in a caucus environment that favors Rick Santorum more than him? I really can't see him attending services at an evangelical church and attempting to allay their fears that he is not one of them. He does not perform well when he is on the defensive, and Des Moines is not Trenton.

    December 17, 2013 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  19. Rudy NYC

    Fair is Fair

    Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves.
    ------------------------
    I don't know about that. The smoking gun is undeniable. It's Christie's own words being used against him. In layman's terms, that means that they seem to have caught Christie in an obvious lie.

    Gov. Christie claimed that there was a traffic study being conducted at rush hour on the first day of the new school year. State law requires that the local municipalities, targeted Mayor of Ft. Lee, MJ be made aware of such things. The Mayor was not informed about the study. It seems that the only people besides Christie who were aware of the study were the two Christie appointees, who ordered the lane shutdowns. The two former state officials have made themselves most inconveniently unavailable for comments or interviews.

    December 17, 2013 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  20. Lynda/Minnesota

    "A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend indicated that Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin is the most popular of the possible GOP presidential candidates right now."

    Chris Christie tops Clinton and Paul Ryan tops Chris Christie. Well ... OK, then.

    December 17, 2013 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  21. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    The GWB lane closings are the least of his problems. His lavish lifestyle while he was a U.S. attorney is going to hurt him. Along with his Bernie Madoff ties and special favors for his political allies. Whacko bird conservatives are going to paint him as a RINO and an east coast liberal. He doesn't stand a chance of getting the nomination.

    December 17, 2013 11:15 am at 11:15 am |
  22. Malory Archer

    Fair is Fair

    Anyone who thinks some lane closures on the GW bridge is going to have ANY significant bearing on whether someone votes for Chris Christie is deluding themselves.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    However, the explanation of the so-called "traffic study" that nobody knew about and his flippant response to it won't help his cause. It's about character, which he sorely lacks (here's your chance to toss in a "Bill Clinton" nugget). That and the fact that the vast majority of Americans don't like bullies.

    December 17, 2013 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  23. Malory Archer

    Rudy NYC

    Gov. Christie claimed that there was a traffic study being conducted at rush hour on the first day of the new school year.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You would think there would be some sort of paper or email trail. Yet, there's nothing.

    December 17, 2013 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  24. smith

    Sorry guys, you might want to start getting used to hearing, "President Christie". 2016, a fresh start.

    December 17, 2013 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  25. The Real Tom Paine

    -smith

    Sorry guys, you might want to start getting used to hearing, "President Christie". 2016, a fresh start.
    ***************
    Won't President Romney be upset over that statement?

    December 17, 2013 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
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