December 26th, 2013
04:00 PM ET
9 months ago

2016 CNN Poll: Clinton deadlocked with Christie but leads other GOP presidential possibilities

Washington (CNN) - In a potential preview of the next presidential election, a new national poll suggests Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie would be neck and neck if the 2016 contest were held today.

But a CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates Clinton leading eight other possible Republican White House hopefuls in hypothetical general election matchups.

According to the poll, 48% of registered voters say they would support support Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, if he were the GOP nominee, with 46% saying they would back Clinton, the former secretary of state, U.S. senator, and first lady, if she captured the Democratic nomination. Christie's 2-point margin is within the survey's sampling error. The CNN poll is the third non-partisan, live operator national survey conducted this month to indicate a possible matchup between Clinton and Christie basically all tied up.

If she decides to run, Clinton would instantly become the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. And Christie, fresh off his landslide re-election last month as New Jersey governor, is on top of the pack in recent polls of the race for the Republican nomination.

So what's the secret of Christie's strength against Clinton?

"He performs particularly well among independents, winning nearly six in 10 in that key group," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland siad. "He also wins a majority of suburbanites and older voters, something that no other GOP hopeful [that was] tested was able to do against Clinton."
"Christie doesn't win in the Northeast, although he does hold Clinton to a bare majority there, but he has a solid edge in the Midwest while playing Clinton to a draw in the South and West," Holland said.

Not surprisingly, the survey indicates a gender gap: Christie has a 14-point lead among men but loses women to Clinton by 10 points.

Clinton leads in other 2016 showdowns

The statistical tie between the Garden State governor and the former secretary of state is pretty remarkable compared to how Christie's potential GOP rivals do against Clinton in the CNN poll at this early stage of the game.

Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget Committee chairman and 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, loses to Clinton by eight percentage points. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky trails by 13 points. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, is down by 15 points.

And it doesn't get any better for the GOP from there.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who ran for the nomination in the last election, is down 17 points to Clinton; freshman Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas trails by 18 points; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rick Santorum, a 2012 GOP presidential candidate and former senator from Pennsylvania, are 19 points behind; and former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush faces a 21-point gap between himself and Clinton
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One thing to remember: Surveys taken this early in a presidential cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

"Keep in mind that polls taken so many years before an election have little or no predictive value," Holland said.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from December 16-19, with 950 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • CNN/ORC International poll
soundoff (462 Responses)
  1. Samson Roxas

    I am not a US Voter, but Hilary Clinton can make more Big Change .

    December 27, 2013 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  2. bobbi

    Hilary is my girl

    December 27, 2013 06:50 pm at 6:50 pm |
  3. oldladycitizen

    Both are bad choices that have been propped up by the media. I'm sure the Clinton attack machine is already strategizing a hit to put out on Christie.

    December 27, 2013 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  4. Mable J McCall

    I would support Hillary.

    December 27, 2013 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
  5. Bea

    Christie is up because he just won his reelection by a wide margin. Hillary is down because "Obamacare" is dragging down all Democrats, including Obama. If the ACA proves to be successful in the long run, then the Democrats will have the advantage once again, only time will tell.

    December 27, 2013 11:16 pm at 11:16 pm |
  6. Prince Adu/Tokyo

    Hillary Clinton,1st America Female President In Waiting....We Love You.

    December 28, 2013 12:04 am at 12:04 am |
  7. Palin Power

    Sarah Palin will easily beat Hillary in the polls. Sarah Palin will run and she will easily become our next president!

    December 28, 2013 12:21 am at 12:21 am |
  8. boogaloos69

    Hilary would get my vote as well. This is is not even close. Who do you think your fooling?

    December 28, 2013 02:50 am at 2:50 am |
  9. Mattie Brown

    Hillary Clinton will definitely get my vote

    December 28, 2013 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  10. Ray

    She wasn't good enough for Obama, sad she is even being mentioned after all her scandals.

    December 29, 2013 03:47 am at 3:47 am |
  11. Jarwinken Wiah

    While I support Clinton's presidential run, I will not dwell on early polls at this stage. Both Clinton and Christie should not celebrate any lead at this time; particularly for Clinton because of the historical experience, with the Democratic primaries which propelled Obama for the presidency.

    December 29, 2013 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  12. Wendell Coleman

    Christie looks good now because the Republican conservative base is so fragmented among numerous potential primary candidates. As soon as the primaries start and some of these lesser candidates start to drop out, their supporters will start to coalesce behind one or two of the more viable conservative candidates and Christie will start to fall farther and farther down the list. Compounding his problem is the fact that Christie isn't polling well in Iowa (he's currently 5th according to a recent Des Moines poll) or South Carolina, two of the early primary states, which will make it hard to generate any early momentum.

    December 29, 2013 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
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