December 26th, 2013
04:00 PM ET
7 months ago

2016 CNN Poll: Clinton deadlocked with Christie but leads other GOP presidential possibilities

Washington (CNN) - In a potential preview of the next presidential election, a new national poll suggests Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie would be neck and neck if the 2016 contest were held today.

But a CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates Clinton leading eight other possible Republican White House hopefuls in hypothetical general election matchups.

According to the poll, 48% of registered voters say they would support support Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, if he were the GOP nominee, with 46% saying they would back Clinton, the former secretary of state, U.S. senator, and first lady, if she captured the Democratic nomination. Christie's 2-point margin is within the survey's sampling error. The CNN poll is the third non-partisan, live operator national survey conducted this month to indicate a possible matchup between Clinton and Christie basically all tied up.

If she decides to run, Clinton would instantly become the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. And Christie, fresh off his landslide re-election last month as New Jersey governor, is on top of the pack in recent polls of the race for the Republican nomination.

So what's the secret of Christie's strength against Clinton?

"He performs particularly well among independents, winning nearly six in 10 in that key group," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland siad. "He also wins a majority of suburbanites and older voters, something that no other GOP hopeful [that was] tested was able to do against Clinton."
"Christie doesn't win in the Northeast, although he does hold Clinton to a bare majority there, but he has a solid edge in the Midwest while playing Clinton to a draw in the South and West," Holland said.

Not surprisingly, the survey indicates a gender gap: Christie has a 14-point lead among men but loses women to Clinton by 10 points.

Clinton leads in other 2016 showdowns

The statistical tie between the Garden State governor and the former secretary of state is pretty remarkable compared to how Christie's potential GOP rivals do against Clinton in the CNN poll at this early stage of the game.

Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget Committee chairman and 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, loses to Clinton by eight percentage points. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky trails by 13 points. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, is down by 15 points.

And it doesn't get any better for the GOP from there.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who ran for the nomination in the last election, is down 17 points to Clinton; freshman Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas trails by 18 points; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rick Santorum, a 2012 GOP presidential candidate and former senator from Pennsylvania, are 19 points behind; and former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush faces a 21-point gap between himself and Clinton
.
One thing to remember: Surveys taken this early in a presidential cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

"Keep in mind that polls taken so many years before an election have little or no predictive value," Holland said.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from December 16-19, with 950 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • CNN/ORC International poll
soundoff (462 Responses)
  1. jinx9to88

    Dems sit back and grab some popcorn because the wackos birds Cruz and Ryan will not go quietly. LMAO!!!

    December 26, 2013 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  2. Lindsey

    The Republicans will cease to exist as a party if they run Cristie. The Tea Party will not support him and will run a candidate that will take most of Cristie's votes and Clinton will be the next president. However, the Tea Party will own both houses of Congress and Clinton will then make deals to get our country straightened out just like Bill Clinton did. (Actually, Bill Clinton will be the president because Hillary is not too bright.)

    December 26, 2013 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  3. Robert N. constant

    Once again CNN has violated the rules of ethical journalism. It continues to commission political polls to ORC International. ORC International is owned by Lake Capital, which is controlled by TERENCE M GRAUNKE. Mr. Graunke is a major Tea Party Contributor to the Republican Party. Most notably, he withdrew support from Mitt Romney because of Mitt Romney's position on health care.
    At best , ORC International is suspect because of its being controlled by a Tea Party activist. Given the "do whatever it takes" fanaticism of these people, this is completely unacceptable. For CNN to choose such a polling company shows a complete disregard of responsible and ethical journalistic practice or perhaps something worse.

    December 26, 2013 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  4. loudmusic

    If, (or should I say "when") Hillary announces, then it's game over, because the GOP will NOT get behind Christie as a candidate. They're a fractured party, and the rift won't close in time for the next presidential election.

    December 26, 2013 06:08 pm at 6:08 pm |
  5. Robert N. constant

    ORC International, CNN's polster, is owned by Tea Party Contributor , Terence M Graunke. Does CNN really expect the public to believe the poll is not rigged?

    December 26, 2013 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  6. Daktari

    Stop it!!! Christie will not be the GOP nominee.

    December 26, 2013 06:11 pm at 6:11 pm |
  7. Sniffit

    "little or no predictive value,"

    That's how you know it's mouthbreather approved.

    December 26, 2013 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  8. Tim

    Any American would need to be an idiot to vote for Hillary Clinton for any position.

    December 26, 2013 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  9. dyde

    3 people years =
    21 dogs years =
    a hundred trillion politics years

    December 26, 2013 06:16 pm at 6:16 pm |
  10. TYRANNASAUR

    2016 CNN Poll: Clinton deadlocked with Christie but leads other GOP presidential possibilities................

    THAT'S 3 YEARS AWAY.....who gives a blank...give me a break.....is this the best you can do and call it news?

    December 26, 2013 06:16 pm at 6:16 pm |
  11. Worship Warrior

    This might present some awkward situations. Can you just imagine Bill having lunch dates with former first ladies...

    December 26, 2013 06:18 pm at 6:18 pm |
  12. adm12

    How about taking care of NJ first. Have you read the news lately.

    December 26, 2013 06:19 pm at 6:19 pm |
  13. Frank Nash

    So, who is representing the Republican Party?

    December 26, 2013 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  14. Hmmmm

    Jeb Bush is the next President.

    December 26, 2013 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  15. Silence DoGood

    @Carol "I know many women of all age groups that are Independents, and Republicans that will not vote for Clinton."
    But any undecided women out there should Google "slap" "Hillary" "game" to see what conservatives think is OK to do to women who get a little too much power.

    December 26, 2013 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  16. Arkaden

    Oh nice, mass media is already telling us who we're allowed to vote for in two years. Let the brainwashing begin! Grab some popcorn and let the monkeys entertain us.

    December 26, 2013 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  17. Uncle Sam

    Well, they deserve each other.

    December 26, 2013 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  18. GOP_R_Traitors

    Gristie will NOT be the GOP candidate. PERIOD

    December 26, 2013 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  19. Martha in CF

    Oh my God-stop it CNN

    December 26, 2013 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  20. Jack 2

    That's like choosing between democrats.

    December 26, 2013 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  21. rh

    Cuomo vs. Christie would be hilarious and get the Southern folks up in arms.

    December 26, 2013 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  22. Silenius

    Both of these candidates really suck.

    December 26, 2013 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  23. meki60

    2 losers in 1 box

    December 26, 2013 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  24. Tom

    This is GREAT..........both candidates are PRO GUN Laws and PRO CHOICE............now what ????

    December 26, 2013 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  25. Carl

    Move over Liberals – first the Senate and then the President, and then we clean house!!!

    December 26, 2013 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19