December 26th, 2013
04:00 PM ET
11 months ago

2016 CNN Poll: Clinton deadlocked with Christie but leads other GOP presidential possibilities

Washington (CNN) - In a potential preview of the next presidential election, a new national poll suggests Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie would be neck and neck if the 2016 contest were held today.

But a CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates Clinton leading eight other possible Republican White House hopefuls in hypothetical general election matchups.

According to the poll, 48% of registered voters say they would support support Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, if he were the GOP nominee, with 46% saying they would back Clinton, the former secretary of state, U.S. senator, and first lady, if she captured the Democratic nomination. Christie's 2-point margin is within the survey's sampling error. The CNN poll is the third non-partisan, live operator national survey conducted this month to indicate a possible matchup between Clinton and Christie basically all tied up.

If she decides to run, Clinton would instantly become the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. And Christie, fresh off his landslide re-election last month as New Jersey governor, is on top of the pack in recent polls of the race for the Republican nomination.

So what's the secret of Christie's strength against Clinton?

"He performs particularly well among independents, winning nearly six in 10 in that key group," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland siad. "He also wins a majority of suburbanites and older voters, something that no other GOP hopeful [that was] tested was able to do against Clinton."
"Christie doesn't win in the Northeast, although he does hold Clinton to a bare majority there, but he has a solid edge in the Midwest while playing Clinton to a draw in the South and West," Holland said.

Not surprisingly, the survey indicates a gender gap: Christie has a 14-point lead among men but loses women to Clinton by 10 points.

Clinton leads in other 2016 showdowns

The statistical tie between the Garden State governor and the former secretary of state is pretty remarkable compared to how Christie's potential GOP rivals do against Clinton in the CNN poll at this early stage of the game.

Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget Committee chairman and 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, loses to Clinton by eight percentage points. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky trails by 13 points. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, is down by 15 points.

And it doesn't get any better for the GOP from there.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who ran for the nomination in the last election, is down 17 points to Clinton; freshman Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas trails by 18 points; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Rick Santorum, a 2012 GOP presidential candidate and former senator from Pennsylvania, are 19 points behind; and former two-term Florida Gov. Jeb Bush faces a 21-point gap between himself and Clinton
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One thing to remember: Surveys taken this early in a presidential cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

"Keep in mind that polls taken so many years before an election have little or no predictive value," Holland said.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from December 16-19, with 950 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • CNN/ORC International poll
soundoff (462 Responses)
  1. heathcare

    Wow, you have to be kidding. Gov. Chris Christie is not Presidential material in any way. Can you imagine him meeting with international dignitaries and Christie talking to them the way he talks to teachers? Gov. Christie is just inappropriate and rude. The conservatives do not like him and probably will not vote for him. Do not forget that Jeb Bush is running and the Bush 'train' appears to have way more pull although he is inappropriate for the President's office as well.

    December 26, 2013 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  2. john

    Hillary has got skills but she doesn't have charisma to be the top leader. She is a better fit for other roles.

    December 26, 2013 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  3. Doo doo brown

    After 8 years of Obama ,I will never vote for a democrat again.

    December 26, 2013 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  4. Jeff

    Yay, two more partisans that no one in the middle wants to see, yet will be forced to choose between because no third party is competent enough to put together a run.

    Seriously, 2016 is WIDE open for a solid moderate centrist with no partisan ties and demonstrable leadership experience to kick down the door and get elected.

    December 26, 2013 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  5. rs

    ust asking
    what exactly has hillary clinton accomplished? nothing, nada, zilch. not one accomplishment to her name. all that we do know is that two of her employees and two others were killed due to her incompetence and negligence. she has zero executive experience, just like obama. she's going to be an old hag that has already been refused by a majority of demorcats in 2008. sure, run her democrats. do you honestly think the american people are going to gamble another 8 years on somebody with zero executive and leadership abilities? obama redux?? hahahaha…
    _________________
    Spend 5 minutes on the interwebs, and you'll find she has had quite the career. As to the Benghazi thing- I guess that means because 61 foreign service officers died on Bush's watch (ignoring momentarily the whole unpleasantness in Iraq), and countless hundreds under Reagan, that they are failures too?

    December 26, 2013 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  6. bob

    Hilary – Phooey!

    December 26, 2013 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  7. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA -aka- Take Back The House -aka- No Redemption Votes

    GWBgate

    -NJ Office of Inspector General Investigation
    -NJ Senate & Assembly Hearings
    -Pending Federal Investigation

    This scandal isn't going away.

    December 26, 2013 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  8. tsocrates

    Google "Operation Mockingbird" – still in operation.
    Presidents aren't 'elected' they are selected.

    American 'democracy' is a scam; a lie; nothing but a PR campaign to make you think you have a voice/vote. You don't.

    December 26, 2013 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  9. Belz

    Get a grip media!!! election is 2 years away... this means less than nothing.

    December 26, 2013 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  10. Cozy Warmer

    I can't believe we spend so much time years ahead when we have so much to deal with now! It's not even 2014 yet! Is it just natural to find anyway possible to not have to live and deal with the now? LOL. Can we just cover things that are needed to be covered in the now, and get to the future when the future gets here? Us readers are going to have to get through a lot of stew for the next few years... we know that. Please hold off... a little longer. And be better people!

    December 26, 2013 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  11. Truth

    A turncoat or an accomplice in the murder of an ambassador, sounds like you can't lose with either one!

    December 26, 2013 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  12. Demigod Vadik, CA

    At this time 8 years ago, Clinton was locked with John McCain...

    ...neither became President...

    December 26, 2013 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  13. Ol' Yeller

    @just asking/just saying etc...
    I've posted a very long response listing many of Hillary Clinton's accomplishments in the past, yet you still make these insane posts how she has done nothing bu kill people.
    Glad I don't live in your dark, cramped, smelly bubble.
    And , Bob.... there are other countries you can go to. I hear Somalia is nice and government regulation free...
    You could be rich! And gun control... non-existent. You can get an RPG.
    Good Luck.

    December 26, 2013 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  14. rs

    Frankly, I am betting the GOP will wind up running Mr. Romney again. Shoot he can pay for his own campaign.

    December 26, 2013 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  15. Darwin

    The previous TWO YEAR presidential campaign was annoying enough. A THREE YEAR campaign will drive us all CRAZY. STOP IT!!!!!! I reject all candidates who are so clueless that they even THINK ABOUT campaigning now for an election more than 1000 days away!

    December 26, 2013 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  16. Sugarmama

    Hillary is going to beat about 50lbs off Christie! Who comes up with these scenarios? The republicians are done, done done done. Where does CNN get these polls from? The republicians hopefully and prayerfully will be going home to their geriatric districts. Chile boo!

    December 26, 2013 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  17. Richard Long

    Just wait till the 2014 Democrat Purge, then Hillary will really start stabbing Barack in the back.

    December 26, 2013 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  18. thanks but no thanks

    Hillary is so 1990s. She's a dinosaur. We already said she wasn't as good as Obama and we all see how bad Obama has been. Or do you think the country will just vote for her to say we've had a woman president? Yeah, the first black president has taught us that was a mistake, big time. Qualifications is what matters and I see nothinbg about Hillary Clinton that says she is qualified to be President. Sorry, but the bar needs to be higher than she owns a skirt.

    December 26, 2013 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  19. Obvious choice

    What a joke (referring to either Clinton or Christie for POTUS). They both STINK. How about a candidate NOT connected to big oil or big banking? How about a candidate who will carry out the will of the people, cut pork, support term limits and support recall?

    December 26, 2013 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  20. abnguy

    It would be a mistake to run Christie, the past two presidential cycles the GOP has tried running a liberal Republican and it has not worked out so well this time would not be different unless the country has liberal fatigue.

    December 26, 2013 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  21. Sam

    WHO CARES!! it's 2013, soon to be 2014....Why should we be worried about 2016!!

    December 26, 2013 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  22. Ayyaz

    How about a Clinton / Christie Ticket & we can put everything else to rest. They both work well across the isle & both will put people interest before personal or party interest :)

    December 26, 2013 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  23. joseph

    Hillary is not the right choice, I hope we find better Female Role Models for the next president. Almost anyone is better than Clinton, who is clearly compromised like her husband. These candidates are puppets, not leaders. They allow corruptions no normal person would allow.. and if they step out of line, JFK is the example of what happens to puppets. These leaders are all under pressure behind the scenes and the sheeple have no clue of it... even the puppets don't know the game.. only the evil ones seem to know the plan... decades of false wars, false bank scandals, and all manner of corruptions – please people, don't vote them BACK IN ? for more years? please no.

    December 26, 2013 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  24. James

    Just Asking, she was a US Senator, Secretary of State, worked for a decade at a prestigious law firm, spent 8 years in the White House, the list goes on. How bout you do some research next time before you start sputtering crap?

    December 26, 2013 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  25. Hags for Hillary

    Hillary ha shown she one tough women. Name one man that would get 4 people killed and then shout "what difference does it all make?". Now THAT is cold hearted toughness. The kind of cold cruel disregard for life is what we need in a Commander in Chief.

    December 26, 2013 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
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