Polls: Clinton still ahead, GOP field wide open
January 30th, 2014
09:23 AM ET
11 months ago

Polls: Clinton still ahead, GOP field wide open

(CNN) – A new national poll released Thursday morning indicates potential Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton continues to have an overwhelming lead over other possible 2016 Democratic candidates, while former frontrunner Gov. Chris Christie is still losing ground among his potential GOP rivals.

Separately, a New Hampshire survey shows a similar outcome, with Clinton ahead and no clear GOP frontrunner in the crucial primary state.

National poll

According to the Washington Post/ABC News poll, the former secretary of state comes in with 73% support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, setting a record lead in an early primary matchup in 30 years of polling by the two news outlets.

At a distant second, Vice President Joe Biden has 12%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who’s said she's not running in 2016, has 8%.

On the GOP side, a range of potential candidates all come in at 20% or less, making the Republican primary less predictable.

Twenty percent of Republican and Republican-leaning independents back 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan, a Republican congressman from Wisconsin and House Budget Committee chairman.

CNN Exclusive: Watch Jake Tapper's interview with Rep. Paul Ryan Thursday at 4 p.m. on "The Lead."

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush appears to be climbing in the polls, as he comes in slightly behind Ryan at 18%. Three other polls in the past two months put him in the 8%-12% range.

Embattled Gov. Chris Christie falls to 13%. While polls at the end of 2013 showed Christie as the frontrunner, multiple surveys conducted this month indicate he has lost support amid the allegations of abuse of power dogging his administration in New Jersey.

In the Post/ABC News poll, 12% back Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative favorite from Texas, while 10% back Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 11% support Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

Looking more closely at the ideological divide in the GOP, Cruz appears to have the most support among tea party backers, with 28%, followed by Ryan at 18%. Christie comes in last at 6% in the group, which represented about one-fifth of the Republicans polled, according to the survey.

The Post/ABC poll was conducted January 20-23, with 1,003 adults interviewed by telephone. The overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

New Hampshire poll

Another poll released Wednesday night showed similar results in the important voting state of New Hampshire, which typically holds the first primary in presidential election years.

The WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, showed few voters have made up their mind about the 2016 primary, but Clinton remains the favorite among Democrats in the state while the GOP lacks a clear frontrunner.

If the election were held today, 74% of likely Democratic primary voters say they'd vote for Clinton, compared to 10% for Biden, 2% for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and 1% for Virginia Sen. Mark Warner.

The potential Republican primary looks much different in New Hampshire than in the national poll. According to the WMUR survey, which included a wider range of potential Republican candidates, 16% of likely GOP primary voters would support Paul if the election were held today. Thirteen percent would support home Sen. Kelly Ayotte and 11% would back former Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who's mulling a Senate bid in New Hampshire.

Continuing down the list, 9% would support Christie, while 6% would back Ryan, with just as many picking Rubio.

Bush, who came in second in the national poll with 18%, would get 3% in New Hampshire. Four percent would back billionaire Donald Trump, while 2% would vote for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and 2% would support Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Twenty-one percent say they are undecided.

The University of New Hampshire surveyed 584 New Hampshire adults by telephone between January 21 and January 26. The overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton • Polls • Uncategorized
soundoff (18 Responses)
  1. drake mallard

    Um, Ted Cruz's father was not American at the time of his birth. He was Cuban. That's right... who happily fought alongside Fidel Castro as a teen TED CRUZ's FATHER IS A CUBAN. Rafael Bienvenido Cruz, who immigrated to the U.S. from Cuba, told NPR that though he came to the country legally, he essentially bribed an official to get out of Cuba so he could come over.In an interview near his home outside Dallas, the elder Cruz says that as a teenager, he fought alongside Fidel Castro’s forces to overthrow Cuba’s U.S.-backed dictator, Fulgencio Batista. He was caught by Batista’s forces, he says, and jailed and beaten before being released. It was 1957, and Cruz decided to get out of Cuba by applying to the University of Texas. Upon being admitted, he adds, he got a four-year student visa at the U.S. Consulate in Havana. And his mother was an American. And he was born in Calgary Alberta. I don't know how having a Cuban father makes you more American than Obama somehow.

    January 30, 2014 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  2. The Republican Party Is Dead To Me

    How could any person with half a brain vote republican, after being witness to the tirade brought forth by the esteemed representative bearing the republican banner from New York. His response to media questions proves one thing. He believe he's above being accountable for any and all actions, either by his party or himself. The entire republican party is littered with empty headed people, believing they and they alone are the keepers of the flame of American society. They are so wrong, it's laughable. Hillary's a lock. Bet against it and lose your shirt.

    January 30, 2014 09:47 am at 9:47 am |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Want to know why the GOP polls are lacking for a clear front runner? Because the GOP has no clear leader. The closest that they have for someone to look to for ideas is Ryan, but we all know that he isn't the leader of the party. The pary's real leader is not even a politician. He's a comedian, the Grand Limbaugh. I find it absolutely incredible just how seriously that conservatives, and GOP as a whole, take whatever this man says. For a party that prides itself on strong character, they sure get all weak in the knees when it comes to Rush.

    January 30, 2014 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  4. smith

    Christie falls and Jeb Bush is rising. All depends on the ACA, if the trend continues like it is could be bad for Hil-dogg. Another Bush, that would be funny.

    January 30, 2014 09:56 am at 9:56 am |
  5. MaryM

    It does not matter who or what the republicans run. Madam President Hillary will be elected in 2016

    January 30, 2014 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  6. ChrisM

    Madam President Hillary Clinton and First Gentleman, President Bill Clinton

    January 30, 2014 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  7. don in albuquerque

    Another Bush would be tragic. Wanna take bets on who he would start a war with? Maybe Canada, or Iceland.

    January 30, 2014 10:12 am at 10:12 am |
  8. on streetwise

    On the issue of Jeb4Prez; "Mrs. Bush says it's time to let other families have a chance." Which 1%'ers "Family" was Barbara mentioning any way? The Koach Brothers?!?!?!?

    January 30, 2014 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  9. Tampa Tim

    Like most Americans, I tolerate the brain dead right wing nut jobs. But like most Americans, I realize they should not hold any elected office.

    January 30, 2014 10:32 am at 10:32 am |
  10. amber

    The GOP doesn't have anybody...again.

    Why is it that they keep refusing to develop their candidate pool and policies for the people (both go hand in hand)?

    Almost looks like they want the left to keep controlling the Executive Branch – and this time the Supreme Court may shift because of it.

    January 30, 2014 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  11. Warren

    ChrisM
    Madam President Hillary Clinton and First Gentleman, President Bill Clinton

    Sounds good to me....

    January 30, 2014 10:36 am at 10:36 am |
  12. S.B. Stein

    This is too far out. Can we wait until the mid-terms are over, please?

    January 30, 2014 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  13. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    ChrisM

    Madam President Hillary Clinton and First Gentleman, President Bill Clinton
    -------------------------------------------------
    It is of course too early to tell, but gee, it sure looks that way doesn't it?

    January 30, 2014 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  14. steve

    I'm up for anything the gets former President Clinton walking around the White House again.

    January 30, 2014 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  15. Rudy NYC

    don in albuquerque

    Another Bush would be tragic. Wanna take bets on who he would start a war with? Maybe Canada, or Iceland.
    ----------------------
    If he started a war with the Tea Party, one that he could win, then I'd consider voting for him....but only in the polls if they called me. He'd never get my vote at the ballot box. I no longer trust Republicans to do what is right for average Americans, not since they destroyed entire industries, and my business, with their "help the job creators" deregulation under Bush-41. Yes, deregulation can not only kill jobs, but it can destroy businesses and even entire industries that support those regulations.

    January 30, 2014 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  16. AHC

    Jeb Bush, Rick Scott, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee................

    Dismal pickings there, GOP. Just flat out awful what the Republican Party has become.

    January 30, 2014 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  17. American Worker

    There are no relevant challengers yet on the Democrat ticket.
    At this time, Clinton is the anointed one of the party.

    Perhaps a Tea Party Democrat will get on the ticket.

    January 30, 2014 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  18. Fair is Fair

    S.B. Stein

    This is too far out. Can we wait until the mid-terms are over, please?
    --------
    It would be nice, since the makeup of congress after the mid-terms will have a huge say in who actually decides to throw their hat in the ring. I have serious doubts that Hillary Clinton, at her age, is going to go through with it if she's looking at a republican congress. My opinion, anyway.

    January 30, 2014 11:03 am at 11:03 am |