CNN/ORC Poll: Christie's loss appears to be Clinton's gain
February 3rd, 2014
04:01 PM ET
3 months ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Christie's loss appears to be Clinton's gain

Washington (CNN) - What a difference two months makes.

In late November and early December, in the wake of Chris Christie's landslide re-election victory, the Republican governor from New Jersey was riding high in the polls.

Christie topped the other potential GOP 2016 White House hopefuls in surveys of Republicans' choice for their next presidential nominee, and he was knotted up with Hillary Clinton in hypothetical general election showdowns.

Now, after month of intense media scrutiny over a couple of controversies in his state, Christie's numbers have faded, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey.

In a possible 2016 matchup with Clinton, the poll indicates Christie trails the former secretary of state by 16 percentage points, with Clinton at 55% and the Governor at 39% among registered voters nationwide. That's a dramatic switch from December, when Christie held a 48%-46% edge over Clinton.

"Christie has also lost ground among independents, who were the key to his strong showing late last year," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.  "Christie got 59% support among Independents in December.  Now that has dropped to 39%."

Race for GOP nomination

The survey released Monday indicates that the hunt for the GOP nomination is back to where it was before Christie's rise in the polls late last year: a pack of potential White House contenders with no obvious frontrunner.

But according to the poll, there is a new name on top of the list in hunt for the GOP nomination: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican presidential candidate.

Fourteen percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would likely support Huckabee for their party's nomination if he runs.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is next at 13% followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Christie tied at 10%.

Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget Committee chairman and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida are tied at 9%.

One point behind are Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and longtime Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a 2012 GOP presidential candidate, stands at 4%.

That's a change from November, when Christie was 11 points ahead of the rest of the field. Huckabee was not tested in the November survey.

Christie is facing allegations that some of his aides closed access lanes to the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee last September to punish that town's mayor for not endorsing his re-election.

Separately, Hoboken's Democratic mayor alleges that Superstorm Sandy recovery aid for her hard-hit city was dependent on support for a development project backed by the governor – an assertion denied by top Christie officials.

"Because Huckabee was not included in the November poll, any drop in Christie's support among Republicans may be partly due to Huckabee as well as recent news stories. So it's impossible to calculate exactly how much support Christie lost as a result of the bridge controversy.  But it's a pretty safe bet that the drop in Christie's support against Clinton is due to the recent news stories about the bridge," added Holland.

For all his problems, Christie matches up better against Clinton in the CNN poll than any other possible GOP contender tested. Clinton has a 20-point, 57%-37%, lead over Bush, an 18-point, 57%-39%, advantage over Paul, a 17-point, 56%-39%, lead over Huckabee, and a 55%-40% advantage over Ryan.

Clinton in strong polling position

Clinton says she'll decide whether to make a second run for the White House by the end of the year. If she does launch a candidacy, just about every poll indicates she would start her campaign as the overwhelming front runner to win the Democratic nomination.

According to the CNN poll, seven of 10 Democrats and independents who lean toward the party say they'd be likely to support Clinton as their nominee, with 15% likely to support a more conservative Democrats and one in 10 more likely to back a more liberal candidate.

"The CNN poll did not name specific Democrats who might run against Clinton, in part to test whether Clinton's strong position is due to dislike or unfamiliarity with the standard roster of potential Democratic candidates," says Holland. "The fact that Clinton tests so well against generic rivals is is a strong indication that Democrats are not shopping around, hoping that another candidate will throw his or her hat into the ring."

While Christie deals with the bridge and Sandy funding controversies, Clinton continues to deal with the September 2012 killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans in an attack in Benghazi, Libya. The attacks came during her watch as secretary of state, and some Republicans have Clinton heavily over the attack and its aftermath.

But according to the poll, 62% approve of the job she did at the State Department, down 4 points from December 2012, a month before Clinton stepped down as American's top diplomat.

Nine in 10 Democrats and just over six in 10 independents said they approve of the job she did as secretary of state. That approval drops to 29% among Republicans.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International January 31-February 2, with 1,010 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton
soundoff (156 Responses)
  1. Jeff Brown in Jersey

    I love it when a rotten political party falls apart!

    February 3, 2014 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  2. David

    More evidence that polls mean absolutely squat.

    February 3, 2014 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  3. Brian

    Wake me when either of these 2 officially announce they are running...

    February 3, 2014 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  4. paul reynolds

    One of the most Sick aspects of the Christie Corruption is that He directly used his knowledge as NJ's most successful State Prosecutor against Corruption to know
    Exactly How to avoid leaving Clues as NJ's most Corrupt Governor with his grubby Paws on All the $$Money, Leverage and Controls..!!!
    priceless!

    February 3, 2014 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  5. traveler

    Why is the media determining for us who will be our next president? It's almost 3 years away! Who cares about Hillary or Christie!!?

    February 3, 2014 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  6. Stop the Madness

    Just a wee little bit premature....

    February 3, 2014 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. deflateddome

    Looks like the 24-7 Bridgegate coverage has had very little effect from MSNBC

    February 3, 2014 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  8. Tom

    GOP, we never liked him. Don't double down with support for unsupportable. Drop him and move on to a real candidate!!

    February 3, 2014 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  9. Sonny

    Congratulations CNN !! Your persistent negative coverage seems to have paid off and helped you accomplish your goal. The real political machine in America – the media

    February 3, 2014 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  10. Guest

    Christie closed down 4 lanes: Hillary let 4 men die at Benghazi. Neither is fit for the presidency.

    February 3, 2014 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  11. Truth

    CNN the arm of the HDNC picks off the first of Hilliary's contenders
    Dare anyone from the Democrat party challenge her?
    Wouldn't CNN will ruin you

    February 3, 2014 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  12. sly

    Crook Christie will certainly not run for President. The Republicans lose a candidate a week to crime, suicide, pedophility.

    I'm guessing the best the Party of 15% will come up with is Sarah Palin, teamed with John McCain.

    I think we all look forward to 8 more years of great progress with Hillary Clinton as President.

    Hillary is good for America. These indeed are good times to be an American.

    February 3, 2014 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  13. mannycl

    Thanks! I didn't know they were running.

    February 3, 2014 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  14. ThinkAgain - If you want Congress to actually do something FOR the American people, vote OUT the Repub/tea bag majority

    CNN, is this the most recent photo you have of Christie? He looks like such a food addict, incapable of self-control. Been there, done that with the dry alcoholic (Bush); last thing this country needs is a rerun of THAT.

    February 3, 2014 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  15. Ghung

    Hopefully, whoever it is will encourage some radically different thinking. The status quo isn't going to cut it much longer.

    February 3, 2014 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  16. Wheels

    the cookie monster

    February 3, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  17. John

    Huckabee?? LMAO!! The country should just prepare itself for 4 more years of a dem pres! Sad!

    February 3, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  18. conchytonker

    Benghazi. Compulsive liar as Sec of State. As for Christie, swaping spit with Barack......what comes around goes around. RINO

    February 3, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  19. JBD

    Gee I wonder which candidate CNN will support?

    NEWSFLASH ... the guy with a bunch of scandals surrounding him and his staff is behind our gal in the ratings! Thank goodness CNN was here to report it for me!

    February 3, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  20. Sonny

    This also proves that you are not innocent until proven guilty, you are guilty until proven innocent...and once the media even mentions something negative, the damage is already done.

    February 3, 2014 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  21. paul reynolds

    When Christie's OWN Team and Direct Deputy is BUSTED sending POLITICAL VENGEANCE EMAILS
    to another Crony who says "GOT IT" .....

    What do YOU suppose they All GOT then.!???

    Clearly this was a pre-meditated Crime, or Wildstein would have responded with confusion – What Traffic Problems?

    February 3, 2014 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  22. Silence DoGood

    If Ms.Clinton runs, Benghazi will be the new Birth Certificate. And hopefully with the same results.

    February 3, 2014 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  23. Wake up People!

    Another useless poll.

    Benghazi! Benghazi!! Hillary shut the bridge down Christy was completely in the dark.
    I just thought I'd add that.

    And btw, I'm being facetious.

    February 3, 2014 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  24. SC

    Why vote for this fatty? He would be bullying and eating doughnuts once in office.

    February 3, 2014 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  25. Alan

    Hillary Clinton is looking better by the day. Let's see, vote for a lady with a proven track record in government and diplomacy, or vote for a political Al Capone gangster whose political escapade in orchestrating a major artery shutdown, could have cost people their lives if emergency responders were unable to provide service from 911 calls, or if military could not respond to an act of terrorism in that city! Shutting down public arteries needed by the public, police and military on a moment's notice - relied on by ambulances, police, fire department and possibly the National Guard - is criminal activity. A criminal terrorized a city for personal political (and possibly financial) gain, threatening national security from blocking access by the Federal Government to a major metropolis.

    February 3, 2014 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
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