2016 polls: Clinton tops Christie in three major states
March 4th, 2014
08:51 AM ET
6 months ago

2016 polls: Clinton tops Christie in three major states

(CNN) - Hillary Clinton tops Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan in hypothetical showdowns in three states, according to new multi-state survey.

And a majority of voters questioned the polls by Roanoke College in Virginia, Rutgers-Eagleton in New Jersey and Siena College in New York state, say they have a favorable view of the former secretary of state and name her most often as the one eligible person that they'd most like to see as the next president.

The surveys indicate Clinton topping Christie, the two-term New Jersey governor, by 36 percentage points in New York, where she served eight years as a U.S. senator, by 8 points in Virginia, and by 10 points in Christie's home state, in possible 2016 presidential election matchups.

According to the polls, which were released Tuesday, Clinton leads Paul, the first-term senator from Kentucky by 43 points in New York, 14 points in Virginia and 29 points in New Jersey. And she's ahead of Ryan, the House Budget Chairman and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, by 37 points in the Empire State, 11 points in the Old Dominion, and 25 points in the Garden State.

New York and New Jersey are reliable states for Democrats in presidential elections, with Virginia a crucial battleground.
The survey indicates Clinton with a 64% favorable rating in New York, 59% in neighboring New Jersey, and 56% in Virginia.

"It's early, very early, but in these three states worth 56 of 270 electoral votes needed to win, Hillary Clinton is well-liked, the top choice by margins of four or five to one in New York and Virginia and named more than twice as often in Governor Christie's home state," said Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute.

"Head to head, she is untouchable in New York, has majorities in New Jersey and a lead in the potential battleground state of Virginia over not only two lesser known Republican hopefuls, Paul and Ryan, but over Christie who can no longer muster 50 percent favorable in any of the three states."

Clinton and Christie were basically all tied up in Virginia in a separate survey from Christopher Newport University that was released Monday.

Clinton's said she'll decide by the end of this year whether she makes a second bid for the White House. Virtually every poll indicates she'd become the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination if she runs. Christie, Paul and Ryan are among a large group of Republicans who are considering 2016 campaigns for president.

Polling indicates no real frontrunner among the potential GOP contenders. Christie's poll numbers both nationally and in his home state have taken a hit because of the George Washington Bridge controversy that's ensnared his administration.

The next race for the White House officially doesn't get under way until after November's midterm elections. It's fair to say that at this point, such surveys are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

The Roanoke/Rutgers-Eagleton/Siena College Study was conducted jointly by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers, and the Siena College Research Institute and were conducted February 22-28, 2014. A total of 707 Virginia registered voters were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Seven-hundred and twenty-nine New Jersey registered voters were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. And 814 New York residents were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of 3.7 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this story


Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton • New Jersey • New York • Paul Ryan • Polls • Rand Paul • Virginia
soundoff (149 Responses)
  1. Lynda/Minnesota

    "It's fair to say that at this point, such surveys are often heavily influenced by name recognition."

    Thus the basis for said polling is what exactly?

    March 4, 2014 09:50 am at 9:50 am |
  2. salty dog

    Really, tell me about the experience George w had, and how did that turn out, Obama is viewed in a much more favorable light globally. Why? George and cheney can't even travel to certain regions, for fear of arrest, your clueless, no surprise there.

    March 4, 2014 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  3. Tony in Maine

    Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi say the Republican chickenhawks since Tora Tora Tora doesn't sound good.

    President Hillary Clinton. It has a good sound to it. Of course, if the voters don't go to the polls in 2014 and vote in their own best interests, Boehner, McConnell et al will once again obstruct everything from the purchase of TP to the nomination of justices to fill any seat on any federal court anywhere.

    March 4, 2014 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  4. Randy, San Francisco

    Hillary Clinton has over one third of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency if you add in California's 55 electoral votes. No need to take a poll in California where Republicans are only 29 percent of all registered voters.

    March 4, 2014 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  5. ST

    Folks, don't focus on what polls say. Concentrate on how to avoid voter suppression and stopping all mischiefs the other side do. Without taking that path, they can never win any election.

    March 4, 2014 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  6. salty dog

    So many clowns, nary a king amongst them? The gop line up looks abysmal at best, all are considered crazy, or a Koch puppet, or both .

    March 4, 2014 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  7. Silence DoGood

    @Really?
    "It would be great to hear her speak the truth about Benghazi. "
    ---------
    Again? Why don't you read the transcript? Oh that's right, you don't like her politics so that means there is a vast government conspiracy cover up. Benghazi – the new birth certificate.

    March 4, 2014 10:12 am at 10:12 am |
  8. Thom

    Randy in SF, you're right.....then add in the other 3 big Dem states, and they love her in FL too.....and she has the White House in a cake walk. The House and Senate will both be about 50/50 ....so this should go pretty well for the left.

    March 4, 2014 10:14 am at 10:14 am |
  9. Thom

    The only change I see here is that the Koch brothers are going to be about $50M poorer.

    March 4, 2014 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  10. Name jk. Sfl. GOP CRUZ lee&rubio 24billion dallar LOSS of your tax money conservatives,the garbage of America.

    Christi's a thug and not electable nationally, maybe in New Jersey !!!!!!

    March 4, 2014 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  11. Thom

    Don't think for even one minute that the left isn't saving the best on Christie for last.............

    March 4, 2014 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  12. Thom

    Ted Cruz would not even win his home state in the GOP Primary........ The guy is a cartoon....a Looney Tune. "Teddy Cruzamatic.

    March 4, 2014 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  13. Rudy NYC

    Maybe we should take a page out of Isaac Asmiov's books. He had written a short story about the nation's leader being selected by a computer. The choice was not entirely random, as the computer considered all extenuating circumstances and the person's character. The person served only one term, and was then permanently retired for life on a government pension, ineligible to receive any money from any other source for the rest of their life. It was not a job that many people envied.

    March 4, 2014 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  14. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Folks, don't focus on what polls say. Concentrate on how to avoid voter suppression and stopping all mischiefs the other side do. Without taking that path, they can never win any election."

    OH, but ST we are supposed to take these polls seriously. Its what keeps each side fuming at each other and forgetful of all the mischief that is done to win elections. Take 2014 for example. We are to throw all the bums out. Which was a recurring theme in 2010. That we got worse bums than we had isn't mentioned. The code words worked, but not how the majority wanted.

    At any rate, we threw the bums out in Minnesota in 2010 and a few TeaPers were voted in. THAT didn't work (they were so much worse than what we had originally) so we threw them out again in 2012. I suspect we will be keeping those we have in office with our 2014 vote (i.e. No TeaParty folks).

    So, yes. I agree with you. Concentrate on 2014 first.

    March 4, 2014 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  15. Gurgyl

    I practically don't care Benghazi, I cared Tora Bora and Bin Laden wanton escape known to rethuglicans.

    March 4, 2014 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  16. The Real Tom Paine

    -Really?

    Too Bad Tom P. the reason no one backs up Obama is because he doesn't know what he's doing. he never had experience for this type of thing being a community organizer and all. the International community doesn't trust him since he will not follow through on any of his positions (remember no support for the Iranian protestors and the red line in Syria?). Always two different stories for Americans and foreign leaders (i.e. The Canadian Prime Minister when he was "Candidate" Obama and Medvedev on his second run). It's his bed, not the GOP's, and Hillary helped change the sheets.
    ********************
    Who on the GOP side has experience? Anyone? Cruz? Paul? Christie? Jeb Bush? The lack of support for the President on this is very telling, because the GOP sees everything within the prism of domestic politics. The community organizer charge only tells me that the GOP is once again reduced to name-calling as opposed to working with him. They were the ones praising Putin a few months ago, and they are now having to explain their support for him as he seizes the Crimea. Are you prepared to send troops there? Are you willing to have Americans fire on Russian troops? Stop thinking like a child and start thinking about the consequences of what you are implying.

    March 4, 2014 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  17. Smitty

    Good work on that reset button Hilly !!!!! You and Lurch should be ashamed.

    March 4, 2014 10:32 am at 10:32 am |
  18. Getoverit

    Good job CNN. Any other polls of people who haven't announced that they're running for anything yet?

    March 4, 2014 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  19. Giuseppe

    Can we have an election where we're not voting on the lesser of two evils for once!? Neither of these two deserve a nomination.

    March 4, 2014 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  20. Palin Power

    There is only one person that people need and should vote for: Sarah Palin!

    March 4, 2014 10:44 am at 10:44 am |
  21. S.B. Stein

    This is still too early. I hope that everyone focuses more on getting people out to vote in November of 2014 so that we don't have poor voter turn out. Every citizen needs vote in every election to make this a more representative government.

    March 4, 2014 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  22. Ol' Yeller

    " the International community doesn't trust him since he will not follow through on any of his positions"

    A nice little talking point, but entirely untrue. The 'international community' certainly trusts Obama more than his predecessors, but then again, they don't have active war crime warrants for him, but I digress.
    Ask Osama Bin Laden if President Obama doesn't 'follow through' with 'his positions'.
    This is a ridiculous game the right is playing... If President Obama does something like say in Libya, then your heads all explode because he did something. If he takes a more cautious and reflective approach, then again, exploding heads because he needs to do something. He can't make the right happy and I for one wish he would stop even trying. It's like dating a crazy girlfriend, eventually you are going to have to stop being the nice guy.
    It may be amusing to do this during conflicts with small lesser significant countries and regions, but for the republicants to be playing politics in something as serious Ukraine, well all I can say is 'Remember the Dixie Chicks'?

    March 4, 2014 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
  23. Brian

    How about we get an actual nominee from both parties before we start polling? Last I checked, we have other issues we need to address as a country first...

    March 4, 2014 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  24. Yes It's Not

    I really wish the media would stop perpetuating the myth that Clinton or Christie should be candidates for president.

    March 4, 2014 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  25. Alan

    I'm unclear who the Republicans think would be a Presidential candidate. They all seem like whining babies to me.

    March 4, 2014 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
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