2016 Iowa Poll: Clinton vs. TBA Republican
April 9th, 2014
02:54 PM ET
4 months ago

2016 Iowa Poll: Clinton vs. TBA Republican

(CNN) - There's no frontrunner in the very early hunt for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in the state that votes first in the race for the White House, according to a new survey.

A Suffolk University poll of Iowa voters also indicates what just about every other national and state survey has indicated, that Hillary Clinton would be the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, should the former secretary of state launch a second campaign for the White House.

According to the poll, which was released Wednesday, there's a massive traffic jam among the potential GOP presidential contenders in Iowa. Eleven percent of Republicans likely to take part in the 2016 Iowa caucuses said that former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, would be their first choice for their party's nomination.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were both one point back, at 10%.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Dr. Ben Carson, a renowned neurosurgeon and a popular figure among conservatives, were each at 9%, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7%.

Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a 2012 Republican presidential candidate, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice were all at six percent.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and longtime Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who also ran for the nomination in 2012, were both at 3%.

With a sampling error of plus or minus 8.7 percentage points for likely GOP caucus goers, the entire potential field is basically all knotted up.

"The results of this poll show a wide-open race for Republicans in Iowa, with an opportunity for any number of candidates to catapult out of here on caucus night. For a candidate to do well here, they need to come to the state often, get to know Iowans and answer their questions, and work to turn out voters on a cold caucus night," Iowa Republican strategist Tim Albrecht told CNN.

"With no apparent frontrunner, expectations are low for candidates visiting here, and nowhere to go but up," added Albrecht, a former longtime spokesman for GOP Gov. Terry Branstad.

The survey is the second straight of Iowa Republicans to find Huckabee on the top, although well within the sampling error. He was also in first place in a recent poll by Republican-leaning WPA Opinion Research. The former Arkansas governor was in the Hawkeye State on Tuesday to keynote a major fundraiser for a leading Iowa social conservative group, and for meetings with leading Republicans.

Huckabee, thanks to strong support from social conservatives, won the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses.

Hillary, Hillary, Hillary

When it comes to the Democrats, it's the same old story - Clinton by a long shot.

Sixty-three percent of self-described Democratic Iowa caucus-goers said the former secretary of state, senator from New York State and first lady would be their first choice for their party's presidential nomination. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts placed second at 12%. The freshman senator, a favorite of many progressives, has said she won't run in 2016.

Vice President Joe Biden finished third at 10% in the survey, with everyone else registering at 1% or less.

Clinton was the frontrunner in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination when she came in third in the caucuses, behind then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. Then-Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware came in fifth place, grabbing just 1% of the Democratic vote.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 3-8, with 800 likely voters in Iowa (including 224 likely 2016 Republican caucus voters and 135 likely Democratic caucus goers) questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Hillary Clinton • Iowa
soundoff (15 Responses)
  1. NATHAN WIMBERLY

    Can't wait to see Sheldon Adelson,Rove,Grover Norquist and the GOP stuff Jeb Bush down the tea party's throats 2012 Mitt Romney style.

    April 9, 2014 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  2. The REAL Truth...

    If Jeb get's the nod from the RNC elitist financiers, he'll get the swift boot crowd at the election too.. (pun intended)

    April 9, 2014 03:11 pm at 3:11 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Why don't you take a poll that looks the other way? How about Rand Paul versus "TBA Democrat"? How about any one of those conservatives the article cites in the middle of it versus "TBA Democrat"? Better yet, "TBA Republican" versus "TBA Democrat."

    April 9, 2014 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  4. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Who wants to bet by Friday there will be a new anti-Hillary faux ad???

    Any takers??

    Booga Booga Booga Benghazi!!

    April 9, 2014 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  5. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA - Take Back the House

    Jeb can't win the nomination because he embraces hispanics. Rand Paul can't win the nomination because the neocons are going to destroy him. Huntsman & Portman are too moderate and establishment. Which means, the nominations goes to one of these 3 nuts: drumrolllllllllll

    Huckabee
    Santorum
    Cruz

    April 9, 2014 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  6. Rudy NYC

    Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Who wants to bet by Friday there will be a new anti-Hillary faux ad???

    Any takers??
    --------------------–
    I'll bet ten thousand Romney bucks that you're wrong. There'll be more than one.

    April 9, 2014 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  7. bobo

    All I know is that I'm sick of Democratic leadership.... if you call it that. :(

    April 9, 2014 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  8. Sniffit

    "Democrats only had 44 votes. Thats not the GOP standing in the way. It's the Democrats not passing it"

    No, sorry, but what it means is that the GOP/Teatrolls had enough to filibuster it anyway so a few red state Dems, cowardly as they are, took the opportunity to avoid registering an inconvenient vote that their next election opponent might use against them in an appeal to the conservatives in that red state.

    April 9, 2014 03:47 pm at 3:47 pm |
  9. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    You win Rudy!!! How are you feeling btw??

    April 9, 2014 03:55 pm at 3:55 pm |
  10. Chris-E...al

    I Think many americans on both sides would vote for Col. Allen West he has shown he has good ethics morals and takes responsibility for himself . And that would be a great change These days in D.C. dont you think ?

    April 9, 2014 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  11. Silence DoGood

    I wanna see a true pure white male Tea Partier go for it. I want to hear all about the great future christian take over of the country under corporate control. And how the hard working folks out there are lazy and stupid when they get sick or have to change jobs. And how the country was great at some ancient time but the liberals and women and minorities and other religions wrecked it all.

    There is no better progressive promotion than a tea party guy with no filter.
    Please....

    April 9, 2014 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  12. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    I'd vote for Lucifer and Sadaam before I would vote for Uncle Al-tom West!

    April 9, 2014 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  13. Rudy NYC

    Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    You win Rudy!!! How are you feeling btw??
    ------------------------
    Good, but I've been better. I'm broadcasting from The Mothership. I've made several "anonymous" posts because this machine rejects all cookies.

    April 9, 2014 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  14. Rudy NYC

    Chris-E...al

    I Think many americans on both sides would vote for Col. Allen West he has shown he has good ethics morals and takes responsibility for himself . And that would be a great change These days in D.C. dont you think ?
    -------------------------------
    The voters in the FL district that voted him out of the House disagree. I'll take their advice over yours. West sees communists hiding behind closed office doors in the halls of The Capitol Building. Don't want to know what's next, either.

    April 9, 2014 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  15. Al-NY,NY

    Chris-E...al
    I Think many americans on both sides would vote for Col. Allen West he has shown he has good ethics morals and takes responsibility for himself . And that would be a great change These days in D.C. dont you think ?
    ------

    would you say that after he convenes the House Unamerican Activities committee and does the McCarthy act on those "200 members of the communist party?"

    April 9, 2014 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |