April 13th, 2014
09:00 AM ET
8 months ago

The 'Inside Politics' forecast: Can Kansas City beat Vegas?

CNN's John King and other top political reporters empty out their notebooks each Sunday on "Inside Politics" to reveal five things that will be in the headlines in the days, weeks and months ahead.

1. VEGAS VS KANSAS CITY

Vegas glitz or Midwestern calm?

No, not your spring vacation dilemma. It’s a challenge facing the committee charged with picking the site of the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Las Vegas is the early favorite in part because GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson is signaling he’s ready to organize a deep-pocketed welcoming plan. But some in the party aren’t sure “Sin City’ is the best choice, and Jonathan Martin of The New York Times shared why he is being told by a key member of the RNC committee weighing the bids that he should keep his eye on Kansas City.

“You’ve got two states that can provide money: Kansas and Missouri, there is no NBA team there so the arena is going to be free in June,” said Martin.

“And earlier this week in the capital, Jefferson City, the state senate committee put 5 million dollars in next year’s budget in Missouri –public dollars - to help fund a possible convention in Kansas City.”

2. DOUBTS ABOUT A JEB BUSH RUN

Jeb Bush is the flavor of the month among GOP establishment figures looking for a 2016 presidential candidate, and the former Florida governor has been more visible of late as he explores a candidacy.

In her notebook this week, Politico’s Maggie Haberman shared some reservations from Bush fans that he is a little rusty, and perhaps not as up to speed as he will need to be about changes in his party and changes in campaign media and technology.

It is worth noting that Bush was last on the ballot in 2002, when he won a second term as governor.

3. ANOTHER WAVE ELECTION LESS LIKELY?

As we get closer to Election Day, you will hear more and more talk about the “intensity gap” in the midterm polling. If one party’s base is more motivated to vote than the other party’s, well, it’s fairly obvious what that means about the outcome.

At the moment, it’s pretty clear Republicans have the advantage. Obamacare motivates the GOP base, and the President’s party – in this case the Democrats – traditionally have a turnout problem in midterm years.

But Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report shares some insight from her sources about a dynamic that, if it holds up through November, could result in some missed opportunities for the GOP.

A television graphic showing the changeover to Republican control in the House –called a “wave election” by many– the day after voters went to the polls in 2010:

4. TRYING TO AVOID A GOP CIVIL WAR IN GEORGIA

Georgia is one of just two 2014 Senate races where Republicans are nervous about losing a seat they now hold. (Kentucky is the other).

And Politico’s Manu Raju shared with us the Republican strategy of marshaling resources for what is likely to be a reasonably close race with Democrat Michelle Nunn and also trying to avoid primary nightmares that have plagued them in the last two cycles in Senate races.

“In Georgia what the NRSC has done is create a joint fundraising committee so whoever wins that primary will get that cash,” said Raju.

“They’re trying to stay out of it altogether to make amends with even the most conservative members in that primary, people that might not be in favor of the Washington establishment, but also try to help them out so when they come out of the primary they’ll actually have unity behind them and money to run.”

5. REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT TAKING AIM TO PROTECT COCHRAN

Finally, look for a busy week in Mississippi, home of the Senate race that the GOP establishment is MOST worried about at the moment.

There, tea party challenger Chris McDaniel is challenging veteran Sen. Thad Cochran.

The conservative Club for Growth is spending heavily to boost McDaniel, who has been thrust into the national media spotlight this week after some controversial clips from old episodes of his radio show were unearthed.

In recent days sources familiar with the race shared reliable polling showing the challenger sometimes within single digits. Significantly, the data show Cochran below 50 percent, always a danger sign for an incumbent.

So, even though the primary is in June, Cochran allies have decided to wait no longer. Look for attacks ads against McDaniel to begin early this week.

Cochran more moderate that 85% of the Congressional Republican caucus according to roll call data compiled by FiveThirtyEight:


Filed under: Inside Politics
soundoff (24 Responses)
  1. J'Cincinnati'Redd

    Republicans strike back! Sorry liberals,but your base is to lazy to get off the sofa and vote in the midterms. Its time to stop all the hand outs and put people back to work,so they can feel about who they are and proud when the collect the check that they 'WORKED' for.

    April 13, 2014 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  2. Gurgyl

    -–those hand-outs are Rich Tax Evasions, putting money in Cayman Islands for further tax evasions, Bermuda, Swiss accounts, free earmarks, free benefits to Congress, this so-called corporate welfare, etc, war money to GI, just to have worked for a year in Iraq etc. Free money to Pakistan to have kept Bin Laden there. Nonsense. This nation needs Education. There the problem lies. Vote straight Democratic ticket if you love USA. GOP takes away your SS, Medicare, now healthcare. God bless.

    April 13, 2014 10:14 am at 10:14 am |
  3. brownbuttonglutton

    Lol. A vote for dems is a vote for illegal aliens and the nsa.

    April 13, 2014 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  4. brownbuttonglutton

    Gop doesn't take away any of those things gurgle. Dems take those things away from Americans (sick poor and elderly Americans) and give it to illegal alien invaders.

    April 13, 2014 10:28 am at 10:28 am |
  5. Chris-E...al

    Yes sir . Dems think they can rob Peter to pay Paul forever ?! Dems have did this to you and me in many ways and i just dont think the horror or the scope of it has sank in yet . The drunken spending has got to end be 4 we endup like the USSR ! 0r maybe thats what they are trying to do it seems ? The free handouts and phone orders has got to stop we need jobs to live not hand me downs .

    April 13, 2014 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
  6. bill

    Gurgyl would you mind telling us where you got your 'facts' from?

    April 13, 2014 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  7. brownbuttonglutton

    If you love America vote strait gop ticket. Dems have had control since 2008 and where has that.gotten is? Record number of people on food stamps. Record spending and deficit. Record unemployment. Division and racial hatred. The.democrats are ruining America. Vote for change. Vote Republican.

    April 13, 2014 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  8. Name. willard

    Dems are stupaid

    April 13, 2014 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  9. Tampa Tim

    Republicans rob the poor, seniors, veterans and working Americans and give to the rich.

    April 13, 2014 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
  10. don in albuquerque

    J'Cincinnati"Redd

    Funny, I can remember the last time the Right ran on a platform of Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. How did that work out? Obstruct, obstruct, obstruct. Certainly they had the votes to create jobs, and congress disposes of the funds (meaning they decide how to spend it). So what happened? More lies from the same group that want to destroy education in this country. Reason–much easier to get people to vote against their own best interest if they remain uneducated. Many posting here are a shining example of that theory at work. A vote for the GOTP is a vote for a Banana Republic.

    April 13, 2014 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  11. Tampa Tim

    Republican bumper stickers: Iraq has WMDs, Mission Accomplished, the war in Iraq will only last a few weeks, tax cuts for the wealthy create jobs, trickle down is cool, country first, government shutdowns are good, women cannot be trusted to make the right decision, remove the social hammock for seniors, war is good, jeep is leaving the USA, deficits don't matter, death panels, death spiral, if you are an unemployed veteran get a job.

    Republican lies are better, they have been doing em longer.

    April 13, 2014 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  12. Tommy G

    Democrats have been destroying this country for 8 years now. Anybody that looks objectively and the facts and figures cannot deny Obama and the Democrats have been an abject total FAILURE. They were in control of Congress and brought us the Great Recession and have proven they are clueless about how to get the country working again. In their brain dead world, they taking from working people, people producing and giving to others helps create prosperity and growth.

    If it did then the Soviet Union would still exist and the USA would have folded. But one thing is for sure, just as the communists destroyed Russia, the far left Democrats will destroy this country if given the chance. They are halfway there now. Leaving them in control of our government for much longer will spell the demise of this country.

    April 13, 2014 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  13. Thomas

    @Tommy G
    Democrats have been destroying this country for 8 years now. Anybody that looks objectively and the facts and figures cannot deny Obama and the Democrats have been an abject total FAILURE. They were in control of Congress and brought us the Great Recession and have proven they are clueless about how to get the country working again. In their brain dead world, they taking from working people, people producing and giving to others helps create prosperity and growth.

    If it did then the Soviet Union would still exist and the USA would have folded. But one thing is for sure, just as the communists destroyed Russia, the far left Democrats will destroy this country if given the chance. They are halfway there now. Leaving them in control of our government for much longer will spell the demise of this country.

    ======

    When you find the WMD's in IRAQ give us a call , then you can sing your version of Don't Worry Be Happy !

    Rick Perry / Sarah Palin 2016
    We must Destroy America to Save America ?
    Mega Church of Tax Exemption .

    April 13, 2014 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  14. don in albuquerque

    Tommy G

    Run everybody, run! The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Shriek on little man, people are beginning to quit listening the garbage delivery truck.

    April 13, 2014 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  15. Tampa Tim

    Tommy G – Gee Tommy, not much into facts are you. The Great Recession of 2008 with record job loss and bank bailouts is not Pelosi's fault. The turn around of the stock market, the jobs created, all began before the GOP obstructionists took over in 2011. The terrorist attack of 9-11-2001, 15 embassy attacks with 50 killed, 4500 American soldiers killed in unnecessary wars, run away spending are all thanks to the GOP. You are welcome.

    April 13, 2014 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  16. Seems Obvious To Me

    How about people not vote by politcal party, and instead vote by who is more respectable and more likely to make decisions to better the country? Or is everyone too lazy and stupid to function in an intelligent manner?

    April 13, 2014 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  17. JC

    It will be interesting to see how the GOP presents it's supposed "rebranding". Perineal moderates have leaned much further right to appease the growth of the tea party, but with the gop growing tired of the tea parties antics I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those moderates lean back toward the middle where they belong. The best thing for the GOP would be to trend more moderate. It would drive the left cray-cray. With the left becoming more progressive and liberal extremism being the course, seeing the GOP base be more appealing to libertarians and undecideds will make the far left rethink its antics. Honestly it's the GOP's fault that the left has become more progressive. Minimize the tea party and the left will follow suit and become more accommodating and willing to compromise. Watching Obama be the least compromising president has been highly disappointing. Several liberal friends of mine have expressed the same frustration lately, which makes me hope that the swell of extremism on both sides will decrease running up to the 2016 election. If Hillary is the nominee, and seeing her go from moderate liberal to full on progressive basket case in the past 6 years, the election will be interesting if the right puts up a moderate that can express his or her ideals in a manner that doesn't completely alienate the far right. What both sides seem to forget is that the extremists in their party will still vote straight ticket no matter how moderate the candidate is. They'd rather have a moderate from their own party than anyone from the other side.

    April 13, 2014 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  18. Common Sense

    Seriously? For a bunch of adults your ideas are rather narrow minded. By blaming a single political party for every single misdoing, you're blinding yourself. Yes, there are awful democrats, but there are also awful republicans. Do your research before you vote (unless you're really too lazy to) and vote for whatever candidate not only fits your ideals, but also would be a good representation to our country.

    April 13, 2014 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  19. brownbuttonglutton

    Dems care more about illegal aliens than American citizens.

    April 13, 2014 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  20. daviddavid

    I thought everyone wanted "change". Why do we want to elect dynasty families. Have the Clintons not have enough of the White House after 8 years? Is America dumb enough now to elect one family to 16 years in the White House? Good grief people.

    April 13, 2014 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  21. GODZILLA1

    If the right-wing GOP fundamentalists don't want Vegas as the site of the convention then it won't go there – Adelson has the money but the fundamentalists have the votes.

    April 13, 2014 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  22. rs

    Vegas is perfect for the Right- all imagery and promises for gold (eel at least for the casino owners like Mr. Adelson).

    Although, I think to keep from becoming distracted by those bright lights, show girls and shows, they ought to hold their "convention" at the Regal 8 on Flamingo and use the Public Library across the street for their presentations.... it just *might* show them something a little more like real America.

    Of course stockyards could be appropriate as well.

    April 13, 2014 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  23. Gurgyl

    --facts are facts, is it not true as to Tax evasions by corporate thugs? Is it not true Pakistan is paid 30 billion to have kept Bin Laden in Abbotabad? Is it not true with 2wars looted this treasury? Is it not true Trickle-down looted? Is it not true Pre-existing condition patients denied by insurance thugs? What proof you need? I think you need Education–Obama is DARN RIGHT in saying so.

    April 13, 2014 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  24. mike

    When Obama took over, the country was facing the greatest economic crisis since the great depression. Today the markets are at record highs, unemployment went from -500,000 per month to a positive every month. Obama ended to useless wars put on a credit card that are great grand kids will still be paying for. And now for the first time millions will not die from no healthcare. Obama did all that in five years, incredible.

    April 13, 2014 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |