May 1st, 2014
08:47 AM ET
5 months ago

2016 Poll: Clinton tops Bush in key state

(CNN) - Jeb Bush has a wide lead over other potential 2016 Republican White House contenders in the battle in Florida for GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll of Sunshine State voters.

But a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday also indicates Hillary Clinton topping the former two-term Florida governor in a hypothetical 2016 general election showdown in the nation's most populous swing state.

Clintons' relationship with media still testy after all these years

According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%.

Seven percent say they'd back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican White House contender, each at 6%. No other potential candidate tested tops 4%, and 16% are undecided.

The poll indicates that Clinton, the former secretary of state, remains the overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nomination, as previous national and state polling has also indicated. Sixty-four percent of Florida Democrats say they'd back her, with Vice President Joe Biden at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who says she's not running in 2016) at 6%. No other candidate tops 1% and 13% are undecided.

Americans agree with Barbara Bush

In a possible general election matchup, Clinton tops Bush 49%-41%. And she holds larger double-digit leads in matchups against Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can’t get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent," Brown added.

Among the Republicans tested, Bush (at 53%) had the highest favorable rating among Florida voters.

One caveat, of course, is that polls conducted so early in a presidential election cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition, and tend to be more beauty contests than actual indicators of what may happens a year or two down the road.

Battleground Florida

With 29 electoral votes, Florida's the largest of what are considered the swing or battleground states in presidential contests. The state's controversial results in 2000 gave the election to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas over Vice President Al Gore.

Bush won the state by five percentage points over then-Sen. John Kerry in his 2004 re-election. But then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois topped Sen. John McCain of Arizaon in the Sunshine State by three points in the 2008 election. Obama narrowly carried the state in his 2012 re-election, edging out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just 65,000 votes.

Mitt Romney strikes again

CNN special coverage: 2014 midterm elections

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 23-28, with 1,413 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

 

 


Filed under: 2016 • Florida • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Poll
soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. Lynda/Minnesota

    "According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%"

    This is as good as it gets GOPerville. Beware my Democratic friends. GOPerville hand-ringing and gnashing of teeth will soon become a nonstop headache producing whine of the largest proportions yet to be seen or heard in America.

    May 1, 2014 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  2. smith

    Unless something crazy happends in the next couple of years H, Clinton will be the next potus.I think she will win alot of Independent votes cause of the distance she is putting betwwen herself and the Obama admin. If you think the Clintons and Obamas are chums just wait and see. She is going to throw Obama under the bus big time.

    May 1, 2014 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  3. Denise

    Poor Jeb, his shennanigans back in 2000 might have gotten him a head seat at the Bush Thanksgiving table, but no go in a general election.....Wait, is there another Bush sibling Governor in a key swing state?

    May 1, 2014 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  4. The Real Tom Paine

    Aside from the fact that we are over 2 years away from the General Election, its pointless to talk about Jeb Bush because he can't win the GOP nod. The whackadoodles control the nominating process, and they will put up someone else that meets their ideological wish list, rather than find someone who can actually have win the General. They have wounded their candidates with primaries that only serve to damage them and their brand.

    May 1, 2014 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  5. Chris-E...al

    Bush should listen to his mother and Mrs . Clinton should watch Bill . Or maybe ride off on a donkey into the sunset singing yeepy yi ye .

    May 1, 2014 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  6. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Ok. When it comes to Benghazi. First of all I'm a firm believer that there are many things the government should not divulge. There are things that shouldn't be divulged in the interest of National Security. Why tell the terrorists we know it's a terrorist act? Is that going to change the outcome of the situation? Would the Ambassador and the others mysteriously come back to life? No. Like Hillary said. What difference did it make what was the reason for the attack? And yes I would feel the same no matter who was in the WH. The messed up part is... You had Mitt hoping for something to politicize and politicize it they did. They could care less about the 4 people that died. They wanted to use this act as a way to criticize the POTUS. And now millions have been wasted to try and put the blame for the attack on the administration. I'm just wondering how much has been spent to actually find the people that actually perpetrated this atrocity??

    And like I said. I support my POTUS no matter who it is. And yes I supported Bush after 9/11 even though I never voted for him but I still wanted to see him get the perpetrators responsible for 9/11.

    The GOP are the biggest sore losers in history. This is about nothing but jealousy and their belief that President Obama does NOT belong or should not be in the WH. Unless he's cleaning up. Then he'd be welcome and entitled to his position like they think they are entitled to the WH.

    This GOP makes me sick to my stomach. I can't believe how they have made me forget my core beliefs over the past 5.5 years... I've changed and I can thank the GOP for it.😡

    May 1, 2014 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  7. smith

    @Denise-Still mad about 2000? Dumb conspiracy theories and denial won`t change anything.

    May 1, 2014 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  8. Gunderson

    Well,
    We already have the nominees do we? Does anyone want to clean up the mess the Liberal's, (inmates), have left us these last 100 years? We need to slide down a bit more for any real recovery becomes a requirement. We are only at 47 percent. Not there yet.

    May 1, 2014 09:45 am at 9:45 am |
  9. Rudy NYC

    I think Democrats have too many eggs in a single basket named Hillary Clinton.

    May 1, 2014 09:45 am at 9:45 am |
  10. Peace

    If Jeb Bush is not overwhelmingly be supported in the State where he was a Governor, what about the other States which are still very bitter to hear the name Bush. Poor GOP, I do not know when the searching for the right candidate will end.

    May 1, 2014 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  11. MikeinMT

    Hillary Clinton, simply a waste of oxygen. Her many accomplishments while Secretary of State are............that's right, nothing. Whether it was Russia, the Syria, the Israel, the Saudis, enemies or friends, her tenure at State has set American prestige and power throughout the world has set America back decodes. She ran like a little girl from her position at post when Benghazi heated up, and now look at the new information. Her go to girl Victoria Nuland was involved up to her eyeballs in colluding with the AP promoting the video lie about the attack. To borrow part of an earlier comment, poor Hillary her last name got her a seat at the Obama cabinet table, but her lack of character and her lies in support of this administration will cost her the election in 2016.

    May 1, 2014 09:50 am at 9:50 am |
  12. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    That's right Foxlite get em all riled up... Yesterday it was the Benghazi smoking gun... Today it's Hillary leading in the polls....

    IMO there is a lot of information that shouldn't be released to the public. When it is you're telling the bad guys too. So I could care less what story the WH released. What I do care about is who did it, getting them and let's try to prevent it from happening again.

    This was strictly political and the MSM is horrible for giving this non-story legs. And yes I would feel this way no matter who was in office. But then I'm a patriotic American.

    President Clinton was right about the MSM. Nothing but gossip columnists now.

    May 1, 2014 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  13. tom l

    @Wake Up,

    I'm truly sorry that you have so much anger towards this nation now. I know you feel that Obama has been slighted and you mention that the GOP is a bunch of sore losers but I want you to remember that to this day, and even in a post here, people complain about how Bush never won the election. Wouldn't that be a sore loser as well to continue to harp on settled issues? It's the nature of the two party system and how each side now only wants more control and power and will do anything to do that; including dividing us farther apart and demonizing the other side. We are all being played by our "mis"representatives.

    As far as being ok with being lied to, I think you're doing everything in your mind to justify Benghazi. For over a year now, many of you on these boards have said there was no cover up and we were just howling at the moon and hate our president. I hate being lied to. You are rationalizing away a very serious issue. Have you now heard that the administration is saying that the recently uncovered emails weren't even about Benghazi? Do you honestly believe that?

    I am not trying to fight you. We are fellow Americans and I respect your right to your opinion. All I'm trying to point out is that our politicians have done us all wrong. And it just sounds like your trying to justify something that is wrong. It's not the attack that happened (that's totally understandable when we're in hostile territories) but the cover up is inexcusable. I really hope this comment finds you well and we can have a rational discussion about it.

    May 1, 2014 09:56 am at 9:56 am |
  14. Lizzie

    No need to go out and vote in 2 years, you already decided that Mrs. Clinton will be President.

    May 1, 2014 09:56 am at 9:56 am |
  15. tom l

    And, by the way, the White House hid this email from the investigation. Why would they hide this email? And now, why are they saying it's not even about Benghazi so your comment about being ok with them lying to us in the name of national security just doesn't really matter now because they are telling us it wasn't about Benghazi. Why did they not release this email and why was the email only to internal white house staff and not to the military?

    May 1, 2014 09:58 am at 9:58 am |
  16. rs

    Bush is probably way too moderate for the current membership of the GOP, although he would likely do better in the general populace than, say, Ted Cruz, or the other Clown Car members.

    Meanwhile however, as long as the GOP members in Congress and the Senate are more willing to create sanctions against the poor in America, instead of, say, Mr. Putin in Russia over the Ukraine issue (that has them cranky), they really won't be popular with Americans again. And no, it won't matter how long or how loud they chant "Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi".

    May 1, 2014 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  17. Denise

    First black president, then first woman president will be a hard act to follow for another shrub in the bush!

    May 1, 2014 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  18. Rudy NYC

    smith wrote:

    @Denise-Still mad about 2000? Dumb conspiracy theories and denial won`t change anything.
    -------------------------–
    It's no conspiracy theory, just the facts. Jeb Bush's actions, and those of his madam Sec'y of State, are documented. Credit Al Gore for not making an issue out of it by taking them both to court for seemingly criminal actions.

    May 1, 2014 10:04 am at 10:04 am |
  19. rs

    tom l
    And, by the way, the White House hid this email from the investigation. Why would they hide this email? And now, why are they saying it's not even about Benghazi so your comment about being ok with them lying to us in the name of national security just doesn't really matter now because they are telling us it wasn't about Benghazi.
    ___________________
    Gee, Tom, you're about 24 hours late in the news cycle. Virtually every news outlet has said "sorry, no smoking gun here" on this one. You should keep on it though, clearly this new conspiracy theory of the Right has reinvigorated you after all that effort you put in to trumpeting the wonderfulness of welfare rancher Mr. Bundy just last week.
    Got your "gang" tattoo yet?

    May 1, 2014 10:06 am at 10:06 am |
  20. Rudy NYC

    tom l

    @Wake Up,

    I'm truly sorry that you have so much anger towards this nation now. I know you feel that Obama has been slighted and you mention that the GOP is a bunch of sore losers but I want you to remember that to this day, and even in a post here, people complain about how Bush never won the election. Wouldn't that be a sore loser as well to continue to harp on settled issues?
    ------------------------–
    They, Florida's Sec'y of State, stopped the recount and settled the issue in court. Is that your idea of a "settled issue"? Settling an election, not by counting the votes, but by letting a court decide the outcome based upon a partial count? Yeah, Bush won the election, but he lost the vote.

    May 1, 2014 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  21. GOP = Greed Over People

    While I do not believe Jeb will run, due to his "mixed" marriage, and not wanting to subject his wife and his "little brown ones" to the GOP base bigots, I am pleased Hill handed him his butt in this poll, in which should be his best state showing.

    May 1, 2014 10:12 am at 10:12 am |
  22. Tom l

    Rudy,
    Your statement just proves that there is no difference today between the opposition of Obama and the opposition of Bush. Never mind the fact that there were several news outlets that all looked into this and not one found it to be the other way. As you guys love to say MoveOn

    May 1, 2014 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  23. smith1

    republicans repeat and repeat the same old talking points over and over and the party faithful come to believe that they are true. They are really worried about Hillary and if she chooses to run I think she would make a fine president. And that is because she is smart and knows her stuff. Unlike the people the repos are putting forward .Maybe if they had someone worth voting for but at the moment they are all pretty much the same dumb and dumber. So what choice do we have????

    May 1, 2014 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  24. Tom l

    rs,
    Whatever makes you feel better, buddy. If you're cool with being lied to then that's on you.

    May 1, 2014 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  25. Denise

    Shrub and his minions (party of state rights) went whining to USSC for their 'selection." When they can't win fair and square, GOP is infamous for USSC appointments, recall elections and impeachments.....

    May 1, 2014 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
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