May 1st, 2014
08:47 AM ET
8 months ago

2016 Poll: Clinton tops Bush in key state

(CNN) - Jeb Bush has a wide lead over other potential 2016 Republican White House contenders in the battle in Florida for GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll of Sunshine State voters.

But a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday also indicates Hillary Clinton topping the former two-term Florida governor in a hypothetical 2016 general election showdown in the nation's most populous swing state.

Clintons' relationship with media still testy after all these years

According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%.

Seven percent say they'd back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican White House contender, each at 6%. No other potential candidate tested tops 4%, and 16% are undecided.

The poll indicates that Clinton, the former secretary of state, remains the overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nomination, as previous national and state polling has also indicated. Sixty-four percent of Florida Democrats say they'd back her, with Vice President Joe Biden at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who says she's not running in 2016) at 6%. No other candidate tops 1% and 13% are undecided.

Americans agree with Barbara Bush

In a possible general election matchup, Clinton tops Bush 49%-41%. And she holds larger double-digit leads in matchups against Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can’t get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent," Brown added.

Among the Republicans tested, Bush (at 53%) had the highest favorable rating among Florida voters.

One caveat, of course, is that polls conducted so early in a presidential election cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition, and tend to be more beauty contests than actual indicators of what may happens a year or two down the road.

Battleground Florida

With 29 electoral votes, Florida's the largest of what are considered the swing or battleground states in presidential contests. The state's controversial results in 2000 gave the election to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas over Vice President Al Gore.

Bush won the state by five percentage points over then-Sen. John Kerry in his 2004 re-election. But then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois topped Sen. John McCain of Arizaon in the Sunshine State by three points in the 2008 election. Obama narrowly carried the state in his 2012 re-election, edging out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just 65,000 votes.

Mitt Romney strikes again

CNN special coverage: 2014 midterm elections

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 23-28, with 1,413 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

 

 


Filed under: 2016 • Florida • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Poll
soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    Dems in PA

    Clinton and Bush are both losers, we going to need a real business person, real leader to fix the mess created by this version of the Democratic Party and Obama over the last 6 years.
    --------------------------------
    We have had a handful of people, CEOs of large companies, that I think you might call "a real business person". It turns out that the most recent were all Republicans: Bush, Hoover, Coolidge. Their economic records are a legacy of the worst financial crisis that this nation has ever faced.

    No, history has shown that CEOs have been some of the worst presidents for our economy.

    May 1, 2014 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  2. Cin99

    If HRC runs she will win. I want to see either a Clinton/Warrant ticket or a Clinton/Castro ticket. Julio and/or Juan Castro from TX. There have been 3 different investigations and 3 different reports on Benghazi. Enough already.

    May 1, 2014 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  3. tom l

    Everyday, you parrot out a new RW talking point (some quite crazy like the Bundy issue). Seriously- what about Mr. Bundy- did that little gaffe resonate with you at all- or did you really just drop that in leu of the next Benghazi lie? Who lied there Tom? Hannity? Rush? The host of GOPpers in Congress who supported Bundy? Bundy himself?
    =====

    Dude, calm down. If I oppose something from this administration it is not a right wing talking point. I must be the worst right winger ever since, and I have repeatedly said this, I am opposed to the repubs on so many levels that I can't possibly be a right winger. Would a right winger be our foreign interventions? I'm not. Would a right winger be against gay marriage? I'm for gay marriage. Would a right winger be for the NSA and Patriot Act? I'm against the spying and the Patriot Act. Would a right winger be for a woman's right to choose? I find it abhorrent that the govt tries to make that decision. I could go on and on.

    The desperation on the hardcore left and hardcore right is palpable. I have issues that I agree with dems on. I have issues that I agree with repubs on. The current administration is the one that has to answer to us now and they happen to repubs. Rudy asked me if I could tell him anything that I thought Obama did that was positive and I really had a hard time coming up with one. However, I can't find one thing that Bush did that I support either.

    Just because someone opposes the decisions of Obama does not make them a right wing nut job. It just means that we oppose these decisions. You are too emotionally attached to this administration and president; that's obvious to me. I can easily criticize Bush just as much as Obama so you just have to lay off the RWNJ talking points line. Just relax and take it easy.

    As far as Bundy, he should have paid his taxes and he was wrong. I just feel that there could have been a much better way to handle this and it concerns me that a govt agency has this much ammunition and firepower. That's it, man. Chill out.

    May 1, 2014 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  4. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    @ tom l: You slipped up yesterday tom l and referred to this administration as a "corrupt administration". Direct quote.
    And that was the moment when I waved good-bye to your purported "objectivity" before I slammed the door closed.
    You need to bear in mind tom l that many of us read more than we comment on what we read on this site...

    May 1, 2014 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  5. Rudy NYC

    tom l

    Let's not veer off course and talk about Bush. Let's talk about Benghazi. For over a year you have said that they didn't lie to us. You were adamant that they were being honest and open.
    ----------------------------------
    No, let's no veer off course. We'd rather talk about you and the false image you're projecting. We'd rather like to talk about the broad brush that you use to paint everyone with insults. We'd rather discuss your hypocrisies, tom. Ready?

    May 1, 2014 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  6. Sniffit

    "now the tagline is that it was in the interest of national security. "

    No it's not. Not a single person in the administration has said anything of the sort. Just because one or a few folks on a commenting board make that argument (and I'm not one of them) doesn't make it what the administration or Dems or liberals are saying. You're really REALLY desperate to shoehorn this memo into your narrative, but it's really just not working. It's going to be fun watching you get more and more shrill about it....wandering in logic circules mumbling "5 minutes to Benghazi" like a conservative rainman.

    May 1, 2014 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  7. Sniffit

    "and now we find out they did indeed lie to us "

    We've "found out" nothing of the sort. You're pushing a very strained interpretation of the memo and most people recognize that, which is why it's not gong anywhere. This is more about Graham's re-election campaign than anything enlightening about Benghazi.

    May 1, 2014 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  8. Danny Shannon

    Clinton was right on Benghazi.
    A diplomat and several others had been killed.
    The Repubs wanted a head on a stake.
    It didn't matter if it was a video or a planned attack.
    The fact was people died, and it should never happen again.

    How many embassy attacks under George Bush ?
    Not a whimper from the Right.
    But now this is some HUGH conspiracy,
    that has been investigated for almost a year and a half, and.........NOTHING.

    You running out of things to throw at the
    wall, to see what sticks ?
    52 times to repeale ACA ?
    Waste of human flesh.

    May 1, 2014 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  9. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Looks like the gang has had its' fill of the usual crap from the usual suspects...
    Praise the Lawd and pass the peas.

    May 1, 2014 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  10. tom l

    DMFO,
    I'm sorry but I meant it. It is a corrupt administration. So was Bush's. They have done things to deceive us. I'm sorry if we don't see eye to eye on this but it's just too obvious to me that they are corrupt. I am against big govt of any sort and from any administration. Bush grew the power of the govt and so has Obama. I don't like that.

    May 1, 2014 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  11. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    These are good times for America – the 1st President in 50 years to not start a war. Record stock markets and 401K's. No foreign terrorist attacks.

    Good times. Enjoy them.
    -------------------------------------------------
    Sure are and sure will.
    Grateful and blessed we are indeed.

    May 1, 2014 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  12. jack2

    The worst thing the republicans can do for themsleves is have a Bush run. That woukld be the dumest move they could ever make.

    May 1, 2014 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  13. Dean

    A Hillary presidency after 8 years of Obama and you can kiss this country goodbye. Third world here we come.

    May 1, 2014 11:42 am at 11:42 am |
  14. Rudy NYC

    tom l wrote:

    The desperation on the hardcore left and hardcore right is palpable. I have issues that I agree with dems on. I have issues that I agree with repubs on. The current administration is the one that has to answer to us now and they happen to repubs. Rudy asked me if I could tell him anything that I thought Obama did that was positive and I really had a hard time coming up with one. However, I can't find one thing that Bush did that I support either.
    ------------------------------------
    I guess that means that you oppose one of the first actions the Obama administration took, The Lily Ledbetter Act. You're a shining example of a conservative libertarian, tom. Please, carry on, chap. Enlighten us some more.

    May 1, 2014 11:43 am at 11:43 am |
  15. Concerned

    SHE will never win. She has too many skeletons in her closet besides benghazi. The clinton's are over.

    May 1, 2014 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  16. The Real Tom Paine

    @ tom l, you claim your opposition to the Obama administration is your own, but your words are not. They are a recitation of FOXbot talking points, word for word in many instances. They are propagandists of the worst kind, employed by Roger Ailes: anyone with even a passing knowledge of Recent American Political History knows that he is nothing more than a megaphone for the Right. You repeatedly recite, word for word, their talking points, and then you are surprised when your objectivity and viewpoint is questioned. How can you be surprised? You have rarely gone after people on here from the Right who are serial liars, you have never taken them to task for their stands on gay marriage, or foreign policy, or anything else in any systematic way. What you have done is demonstrated a form of OCD with stands that are designed to inflame people on here. No matter how many times people admonish you, or try to point out that you are crossing lines, you keep doing it. Maybe in your mind, you are what you say you are, but to the rest of us you are all too predictable, and ideologically driven. You approach issues in a very predictable way, and its usually disrepectfull and intellectually dishonest. Sorry to be so blunt, but I don't know of any other way to tell you this.

    May 1, 2014 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  17. Fair is Fair

    Sniffit

    "now the tagline is that it was in the interest of national security. "

    No it's not. Not a single person in the administration has said anything of the sort. Just because one or a few folks on a commenting board make that argument (and I'm not one of them) doesn't make it what the administration or Dems or liberals are saying.
    ------–
    Oh man, Rudy... that's gotta sting...

    May 1, 2014 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  18. Sniffit

    "The narrative ended and the majority of folks have moved on (in more ways than just Benghazi)."

    Which is a very good point and really gets to the crux of it: the only folks who haven't moved on are the GOP/Teatrolls and their base. It's the same with the ACA, including their recent attempt in the House to use extremely faulty numbers and methodology to try to "disprove" the 8M enrollments number (particularly in light of several major insurance CEOs coming out with numbers about what percentage of people paid their first premiums). It's now just an echo chamber feedback loop and design SOLELY to keep the base riled for November. They know these things aren't going anyway...that "there's no there, there"...that they won't prove their baseless accusations, etc. BUT, if they can keep the MSM broadcasting a constant stream of their talking points and daily spin, they get to have an agitated and enthused base that will show up at the polls.

    May 1, 2014 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  19. Concerned

    Once CNN gets on board and reports the truth about this President and Benghazi, the good old Dem. Boys will throw Clinton under the bus. Watch!!!!!

    May 1, 2014 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  20. Rudy NYC

    Dominican mama 4 Obama

    @ tom l: You slipped up yesterday tom l and referred to this administration as a "corrupt administration". Direct quote.
    And that was the moment when I waved good-bye to your purported "objectivity" before I slammed the door closed.
    You need to bear in mind tom l that many of us read more than we comment on what we read on this site...
    -----------------------
    [co-sign]

    The signals have always been there, mama. Now he's backpedaling away from ever having supported Bundy, the man who threatened to shoot to kill if the government ever came to his ranch to enforce the court decisions against him.

    "As far as Bundy, he should have paid his taxes and he was wrong. I just feel that there could have been a much better way to handle this and it concerns me that a govt agency has this much ammunition and firepower. That's it, man. Chill out."

    May 1, 2014 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  21. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    I co-sign with Rudy. He has been the same from the first day he started posting here.

    May 1, 2014 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  22. Lynda/Minnesota

    "We'd rather discuss your hypocrisies, tom. Ready?"

    You mean the hypocrisy of pandering for a candidate who can't seem to pull himself up by his Libertarian bootstraps without worshiping the altar of the fat cat Republicans? You know. That 50 year hypocritical infant named Rand Paul who's going to spend the next two years pandering his soapbox ideology to a crowd who can't seem to grasp that the dude is nothing more than a Republican hanger-on?

    May 1, 2014 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  23. Silence DoGood

    Back then:
    – Obama does not have a birth certificate
    – OK but that is not the Real birth certificate
    – OK it looks real but there is a another more real super-secret birth certificate
    – the Real birth certificate is stored in Area 51
    Today:
    – wait until the Truth come out about Benghazi
    – OK wait until the hearing where the Real truth comes out for Real
    – OK – the next hearing will reveal new Real truth
    – when there is another hearing the Real super secret truth will be a shocker
    – the Real truth about Benghazi is hidden in Area 51

    May 1, 2014 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  24. Rudy NYC

    Fair is Fair

    Sniffit

    "now the tagline is that it was in the interest of national security. "

    No it's not. Not a single person in the administration has said anything of the sort. Just because one or a few folks on a commenting board make that argument (and I'm not one of them) doesn't make it what the administration or Dems or liberals are saying.
    --–
    Oh man, Rudy... that's gotta sting...
    ============================================================
    Nah. You know me. You say I make stuff up all of the time. It's just a bone that I threw out there to see which dog would pick it up and run with it. Besides, I don't think that I ever said that was the administration's position. I posted my opinion, which some folks regard as facts. I feel that if deception was in the best interests of national security, not letting the attackers know just how much we knew, then I don't have a problem with that. Tom has the black eye, not me.

    May 1, 2014 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  25. Sniffit

    "Oh man, Rudy... that's gotta sting..."

    Why would it sting? I don't think I've ever seen Rudy claim that the administration was making that argument. I understood it to be a hypothetical argument Rudy was making to illustrate that he thinks there may be some circumstances in which an administration is justified or excused for keeping things from the public....and I think it was pretty clear that's what the intended argument was.

    May 1, 2014 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
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