CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?
June 16th, 2014
04:00 PM ET
5 months ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?

What do you want to ask Hillary Clinton? Send your questions here and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour might ask it during CNN's town hall meeting with Clinton at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Newseum in Washington.

Washington (CNN) - Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party's standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it's very likely the former secretary of state wins her party's presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it's somewhat likely she'll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it's not likely she'll win.

Poll: Clinton tops Obama on every issue

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party's nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it's very likely she'll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it's somewhat likely, and 31% saying it's not likely.

How enthusiastic are Democrats about Clinton as nominee?

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency.

There's one caveat.

"We've gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton's new memoir, "Hard Choices." In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (123 Responses)
  1. robjh1

    Why does the liberal media keep bothering this woman? Stop with the smoke screens. The same rhetoric was spewed in 2008. The only way Clinton will win is if the media not do a hatchet job on her or if Elizabeth Warren doesn't run or some other media darling.

    June 16, 2014 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  2. Anonymous

    Hillary is who CNN wants to win therefore YOU READERS OF CNN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUCH BS TRIPE OOOZING FROM UNDER THEIR PAGES......."WIFE OF SLICK WILLIE GETS EARLY ENDORSEMENT OF CNN" (EVEN MONTHS BEFORE CAUCUSES!!!!! DOESN'T ANYBODY SMELL A RAT IN THE ROOM???)
    LETS LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE INSTEAD OF THE NEWSPAPERS.........Go get her Mr. Gowdy--now she's waving a red flag!!!

    June 16, 2014 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  3. Fraco

    This is what always get me with the Clintons thinking that they are smarter than all of us. No one can tell or convince me that she does not know if she is running. Why early next year to tell us. Everyday for months now,you open the newspaper, you see her face. You hardly can miss her on TV doing or trying to say something and backing off her previous comments positioning herself to run for the democratic nomination. What a Sham

    June 16, 2014 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  4. Flush the US Congress

    So this is the best candidate that the great Uhmerikwan people can come up with?

    June 16, 2014 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  5. CryBabies

    You're right Sniffit....I need more "pantsuit".... Can we get more "pantsuit?"

    June 16, 2014 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  6. doug walker

    There is so much that can happen between now and 2016 that a poll like this is useless.

    June 16, 2014 05:29 pm at 5:29 pm |
  7. Hillary

    Carnival Cruz and Chris Chrusty. That would be fun, tons of fun.

    June 16, 2014 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  8. Too Scruffy

    If we must have another affirmative action president, can't we get one with some relevant qualifications? Maybe some management 101 classes?

    June 16, 2014 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  9. Maarten

    She is not winning because she is the "perfect" candidate, but because the current Republican Party is too divided. They have "tea party" candidates on one end, who to a large degree want to hold fast to the values of days gone past, while other Republicans realize that if the party wants to win, they have to gain the votes of the young people.

    Mitt Romney lost the votes under 30 by a margin of 37 to 63, and younger voters seem to be more attracted to the Democrats then to the Republicans. If the GOP wants to win an election they have to 1) appeal to young voters. 2) appeal to women. 3) appeal to Latinos, and of course 4) have a candidate that will at least appeal to 2 out of 3 of those points.

    Unfortunately, the "tea party" candidates are hurting the GOP more then they are helping. They are not going to throw their support behind a Republican candidate who has a much broader appeal, and can lure votes from both the Democrats and independent voters, especially in the three categories described above.

    The GOP just doesn't have a good candidate..... They don't even have an AVERAGE candidate at the moment.

    June 16, 2014 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  10. Billie L

    Four brave heros died protecting our Embassy and others were wounded...yet the terrorists who organized this attack are still on the loose? Don't think working at the Embassy is quite as appealing as it once was?

    June 16, 2014 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  11. OrmondGeorge

    Society has two years to find someone in either party – or not yet IN a party that is more well known, more charismatic, more politically aware and better able to communicate all of that with better political underpinnings.
    I don't see how it can happen and when you add in the distrust and dislike for many of the policies and politicians in the Republican party, the odds get a lot longer.

    She would have to do something utterly abhorrent, unimagineable to put off the voting public.

    June 16, 2014 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  12. Tampa Tim

    Billie L – the person responsible for 3000 deaths on 9-11-2001 was brought to justice by a democratic president. There were 15 embassy attacks under W's reign of error with 50 killed, his two unfunded republican wars cost 4500 soldiers killed and 45,000 wounded. Even Taliban Tom knows that.

    June 16, 2014 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  13. eddieb41923

    Pathetic, People actually pandering to the ruling elites who take your money, freedoms and property. These people are so disconnected from REAL Americans who get up everyday and strive to better themselves and do not let thier race,sex or religion stand in the way and certainly do not hide behind the role of victim. Her Barbara Walters interview was a fuming dogpile, feel sorry for her because she had to get a mortgage and they were " broke" after leaving the W.H.? The Clintons have made over 100 million since leaving the W.H. she is the consumate Elitist B.S. peddler.

    June 17, 2014 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  14. TJeff1776

    Although the usual GOP squeals, one-thousand embassies can't be 100% successfully guarded against 100% of all terrorist attacks. The way it is. Times when a nation puts it back together and moves on. AND by "putting it back together" I mean that heads don't have to roll every time mistakes are made. Battle of the Bulge was a prime example of that. Every inch of a 1000 mile battle line can't be successfully guarded ALL the time. And the loss of a few battles is not the war- Union proved that in the CW.

    June 17, 2014 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  15. MAP

    Hillery chances are much better at winning the nomination and the presidency this time around cause no one else is qualified. And the GOP doesn't have a chance with the division in their party with Tea Party and the Establisment. And not to mention the gridlock they put this country through in the last 8 years.

    June 17, 2014 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  16. dave

    Remember back to 2006, and Hillary was a SURE winner of the WH, and then she couldn't even win the DNC nomination against a first term congressman with little record. What makes anyone think she will have a different outcome this time? She is older, even more political baggage, little positive record over the past eight years, appears to have an even hotter temper than 8 years ago, and no new ideas. Outside a far left wing feminists (which will vote democrat anyway), she is uninspiring to the youth and minorities. to win the WH (as ALL records show), the democrats must get the youth and minorities to go vote in much larger numbers than they have historically, (ex the last two elections. These show that Obama did inspire these demographics to get out and vote, and had they not voted in record high numbers, he would not have won). The democrats cannot win with Hillary. Elizabeth Warren would be a much stronger candidate for the dems.

    June 17, 2014 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  17. dave

    Remember back to 2006? Hillary was THE SURE winner of the WH, and then she couldn't even win the DNC nomination against a first term congressman with little record. What makes anyone think she will have a different outcome this time? She is older, even more political baggage, little positive record over the past eight years, appears to have an even hotter temper than 8 years ago, and no new ideas. Outside a far left wing feminists (which will vote democrat anyway), she is uninspiring to the youth and minorities. to win the WH (as ALL records show), the democrats must get the youth and minorities to go vote in much larger numbers than they have historically, (ex the last two elections. These show that Obama did inspire these demographics to get out and vote, and had they not voted in record high numbers, he would not have won). The democrats cannot win with Hillary. Elizabeth Warren would be a much stronger candidate for the dems.

    June 17, 2014 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  18. MAP

    Hillary chances are much better at winning the nomination and the presidency this time around because no one else is qualified. And the GOP doesn't have a chance with the division in their party with Tea Party and the Establishment. And not to mention the gridlock they put this country through in the last 8 years.

    June 17, 2014 11:42 am at 11:42 am |
  19. sly

    Hillary Clinton is one of the most respected leaders in Washington, and she will make an excellant President. There simply is no opposition after Obama decimated the Republican party.

    These are good times for America with our stock market booming, Obama killed America's #1 enemy, no foreign terrorist attacks, health care for 50 million war veterans and teachers who were banned from care.

    Only Clinton has the experience to continue America's resurgence from the Bush Economic Collapse of 2007 and the Bush Oil Genocide in Iraq.

    June 17, 2014 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  20. Jim H

    No one is inevitable. CNN does not "want" Hillary to win; they're a mindless, soulless corporation, throwing out clickbait that get the pro- and anti-Hillary forces upset. They're not like the conservative conspirators that run FOX with one ridiculous theory after another. CNN just doesn't care, or they wouldn't have reintroduced "Crossfire."

    June 17, 2014 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  21. Jamal

    Once again, CNN NOT allowing free posting, cowards. Hillary gave up Her chance at the Presidency because George Soros TOLD Her to WAIT.

    June 17, 2014 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  22. Mike S., New Orleans

    Of course it is Clinton v. Bush in 2016. Americans love their aristocrats.

    June 17, 2014 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  23. togetherinparis

    Not everybody likes Hillary Clinton, but 99% know that she is competent and would do a great job. Far and away she is the person who will lead America through eight years of both peace and prosperity. Ask anybody. There's no real question about that. The pure delight that so many people feel when interacting with Hillary Clinton is the pure delight one gets when one speaks to the leader of one's country. This is not some kind of top down boss push for a candidate, that's what the republicans are accustomed to, Hillary Clinton is a phenomenon of nature. God Almighty created Hillary Clinton. God gave her vision, then the training, and the track record that draws the intense admiration of all the world.

    June 17, 2014 11:23 pm at 11:23 pm |
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