CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?
June 16th, 2014
04:00 PM ET
6 months ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?

What do you want to ask Hillary Clinton? Send your questions here and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour might ask it during CNN's town hall meeting with Clinton at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Newseum in Washington.

Washington (CNN) - Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party's standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it's very likely the former secretary of state wins her party's presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it's somewhat likely she'll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it's not likely she'll win.

Poll: Clinton tops Obama on every issue

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party's nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it's very likely she'll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it's somewhat likely, and 31% saying it's not likely.

How enthusiastic are Democrats about Clinton as nominee?

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency.

There's one caveat.

"We've gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton's new memoir, "Hard Choices." In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (123 Responses)
  1. Yawn

    Another Clinton story. Hey CNN? We get it. You want her to win. Can you return to being journalists again? I dont like cheerleading with my news, its why I dont watch Fox or MSNBC.

    June 16, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  2. O'drama ya Mama

    You know what would be really funny? If Republicans try and spin it and say "well thats the same poll that predicted Romney would win".

    June 16, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  3. dave

    Looks like America hasn't had enough abuse from the statist D's and and statist R's yet.

    June 16, 2014 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  4. Chris-E...al

    I would'nt get your hopes up ? I just hope we all can still afford to feed our families and god protects us till 2016 democrates and 0bama want .

    June 16, 2014 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  5. duane - st.pete FL

    that would be the worst.....she is a loon

    June 16, 2014 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  6. iceload

    Are these the same pollsters who worked for Cantor? They can keep hawking this and hope it comes true. But they are just as likely to pick the 2016 NFL Championship team.

    June 16, 2014 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  7. sonny chapman

    "Turn out the lights, the party's over."

    June 16, 2014 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  8. Lizzie

    Lets just declare her President and be done with

    June 16, 2014 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  9. steve-o

    She might win if someone could keep her from opening her mouth, or doing anything.

    June 16, 2014 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  10. jonline

    I wish your polls made any sense beyond pop polls

    June 16, 2014 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  11. John

    Funny how they poll the low information voters. Who in their right mind would vote for this two faced clown. Alls it will take is one black liberal women, and Clinton will be left dancing alone...again

    June 16, 2014 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  12. Commonsense

    CNN, your level of propaganda would make Goebbels blush.

    June 16, 2014 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  13. Friends

    hahahahaha Was this poll taken outside a DNC convention ? hahahaha

    June 16, 2014 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  14. Ralph in Orange Park FL

    Let us take a few more polls and see what they say.

    June 16, 2014 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  15. sly

    It's grown from Mitt's 47% to over 75%?

    These are great times, as we witness the elimination of the Republican Party.

    Spent 15 years doing nothing but saying 'no' and waste $5 TRILLION chasing WMD's that never existed, and this is the result.

    Good times for America!

    June 16, 2014 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  16. Mike D.

    Who is most? Most people also thought Rudy Guilliani would take the GOP nomination in 2007 and most thought Clinton would take the nomination in 2007. Most people thought Rick Perry would do well in the last presidential election cycle. Most people are obviously wrong on these things which means Clinton won't make it.

    I am sick of the dynasties as are many people. No more Bushes or Clintons.

    June 16, 2014 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  17. Fiona

    I would vote for anyone - absolutely anyone, no matter how extreme - to keep a Clinton out of office.

    June 16, 2014 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  18. bill

    Killery the pants suit queen needs to get on her broom and fly away.

    June 16, 2014 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  19. jrm03063

    I'm glad the baggies on here aren't using this as an opportunity to get used to another four years of a Democrat it the WH – or perhaps – to adopt political strategies more suited to national elections.

    June 16, 2014 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  20. 1776usa2016

    With the Republicans now seeking permission to have unlimited amounts of campaign monies pour into all these untraceable rightwing shadow groups NOTHING is a given.

    .

    June 16, 2014 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  21. BobAD

    She should have been POTUS in 2008 and we would not have the divide we suffer under today, Obama supporters thanks to you we now have a TeaParty that will destroy the GOP.

    June 16, 2014 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  22. James

    It honestly is so early.

    June 16, 2014 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  23. Jerry

    They were all Democrats. CNN just said it was a cross section of voters nationwide.

    June 16, 2014 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  24. John

    That's a fact. We shouldn't waste all that money on an election when we already know what the result will be.

    June 16, 2014 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  25. kenman14

    Wow, you liberal lemmings are totally incapable of thinking on your own! The liberals roll out this recycled life-long feminist czar in a pantsuit, and you all drool and fawn about her like you think she's every accomplished anything worthwhile, but hook her buggy to the good ole boy southern governor who was and is a misogynist that your own liberal "women" still idolize!

    The horde of uninformed drone voters in the Democrat Party would see us have another 8 years of rule by one family, when the last 20 of 25 years have been ruled by the same family and ONE other! NO MORE Clintons or Bushes! We're not running a monarchy!

    June 16, 2014 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
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