CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?
June 16th, 2014
04:00 PM ET
2 months ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?

What do you want to ask Hillary Clinton? Send your questions here and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour might ask it during CNN's town hall meeting with Clinton at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Newseum in Washington.

Washington (CNN) - Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party's standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it's very likely the former secretary of state wins her party's presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it's somewhat likely she'll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it's not likely she'll win.

Poll: Clinton tops Obama on every issue

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party's nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it's very likely she'll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it's somewhat likely, and 31% saying it's not likely.

How enthusiastic are Democrats about Clinton as nominee?

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency.

There's one caveat.

"We've gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton's new memoir, "Hard Choices." In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (123 Responses)
  1. Bill Johnson

    I doubt if anyone is truly excited about her winning...it is just a case of the Republicans having zero viable candidates. At least as of today.

    June 16, 2014 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  2. srcactus

    third Hillary story today? Yup CNN = Clinton News Network

    June 16, 2014 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  3. greenaxe

    Hey Yawn, why don't you spend a little time in the Faux news blogs so you can commisserate with your own kind. BTW you lost in 2008 AND 2012....Hillary winning isn't too much of a stretch y'know.

    June 16, 2014 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  4. Rightster

    The velvet glove treatment of her by almost all of the warmongering media, will probably result in her nomination, and if she is elected, she'll make Dick Cheney look like Gandhi.

    June 16, 2014 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  5. joe

    Ummmmm... OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO WIN!

    When you look at the morons that make up the current Republican party, it's a slam dunk, no contest win for Clinton. I'm not saying that because I'm a fan one way or the other. It's just a fact that the current Republican party is completely saturated with stupidity and incompetence. They have no one that can realistically compete with Clinton.

    June 16, 2014 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. rjsenterp

    God help us.

    June 16, 2014 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  7. Abdulthebucher

    She is a million times better than they guy we have now. I just hope she can keep her pants on and do her job unlike her husband.

    June 16, 2014 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  8. jason

    The rightside looks like a horror show from a bgrade movie

    June 16, 2014 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  9. jjohnoh

    Who is most people? Liberals perhaps?

    June 16, 2014 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  10. Polar Bear

    Noooooooooooooooo! Please tell me it ain't so!

    June 16, 2014 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  11. sirk

    Don't hold your breath lol

    June 16, 2014 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  12. liberal disease

    As they did in 2008

    June 16, 2014 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  13. Brickell Princess

    I don't even know why Republicans are going to try for a win in 2016. They should just sit back, enjoy the show, and not make bigger fools out of themselves. The White House belongs to Hilary in 2016.

    For the love of God, Republicans, don't embarrass yourselves in the race for 2016.

    June 16, 2014 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  14. Deb

    It's tough to play the estrogen card convincingly when you thought it was funny getting the molester of a 12 year old little girl released on a technicality. Hillary is done. You heard it here first.

    June 16, 2014 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  15. Jason Biggs

    the gop does not have any promising candidate, of course clinton is going to win

    June 16, 2014 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  16. sirk

    EWWW policing the dissenting comments extra hard to day?

    June 16, 2014 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  17. Chuck

    I she runs she will win. The Republicans have noone that could beat her unless something unforseen occurs. It's a shame that the republican party is being destroyed by the tea party. It will solidify Americans view that the republican party is dysfunctional and cannot even guarantee that the tea party isn't taking over. Problem is if the tea party continues to win primaries, the left will have more fodder than they could ever need to scare Americans into the voting booths. Remember, the right and conservative base is the MINORITY in America now. The only way they will win elections is because of all the re-districting that was done under Cheney / Bush.

    June 16, 2014 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  18. Chris-E...al

    We are all republicans some just dont know it yet ?

    June 16, 2014 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  19. Freedom Storm

    FROM THE REALITY NEWS CHANNEL
    In her new book, Hillary Clinton falsely claims that Marines were guarding U.S. personnel in Libya just prior to the Benghazi terror attack began. As Secretary of State, she was responsible for the safety of all in the compound, so it makes perfect sense that she would lie about the forces that could have protected all in the compound.
    Hillary’s Marxist Socialist Orchestra and Chorus, of “Vitriol Against Truth” fame, will now present one of its greatest hits … the “Revision of History” concerto in b-flat.

    June 16, 2014 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  20. sirk

    I love Hillary!

    June 16, 2014 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  21. LR

    And this is why the GOP is so afraid of her-all they have is a clown car and they know it.

    June 16, 2014 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  22. judith

    I'll definitely vote for Hillary if she's the Democratic nominee. The Republicans have all crawled into the Rush Limbaugh Clown Car and I wouldn't consider voting for any of them. The further they drive over the lunatic fringe, the less chance they have of ever regaining the White House.

    June 16, 2014 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  23. cal usa

    By 2016 we can be sure that any Republican who may have chance of appealing to the rational majority of voters will have been drummed out of the party. After all, they're even purging the ones with NRA/Anti-Obama-care/Anti-immigration Street creds now. Who will they be able to put up vs Hillary, Ted Nugent?

    June 16, 2014 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  24. Joe

    Just what the country needs...another progressive president that thinks they know better than you how your life ought to be run. four more years of more taxes, more government, more foreign wars, more social engineering... and more destruction of our once great land.

    Kind of a shame really.

    June 16, 2014 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  25. betterdays

    Almost anyone would be an improvement, with the notable exceptions of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.

    June 16, 2014 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
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