July 6th, 2014
08:47 AM ET
6 months ago

The ‘Inside Politics’ Forecast: Hillary Clinton’s European road test

CNN's John King and other top political reporters empty out their notebooks each Sunday on "Inside Politics" to reveal five things that will be in the headlines in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Washington (CNN) – This week’s final trip around the "Inside Politics" table unearthed some glimmers of Democratic hope this midterm election year, a potential replay of sorts in Kansas and a glimpse at Hillary Clinton’s hopes for the Europe leg of her book tour.

1. Hillary Clinton’s European road test

Hillary Clinton spent her Fourth of July across the Atlantic, selling “Hard Choices” to a European audience and, as Politico’s Maggie Haberman shares, looking to move past some of the rocky moments of her book roll out tour.

Clinton has a few more interviews where her allies expect she's going to continue cleaning up a lot of the fallout from the dead-broke gaffe and some of her other missteps.

Then she's going to disappear for most of the summer - in the Hamptons.

And the hope from her allies, according to Maggie, is that she has learned something from what went wrong in the last couple of weeks and will demonstrate that in the fall.

2. Will more incumbents fall?

Leading strategists in both parties say no, or not many, anyway. The question is a hot one since the surprising defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in his primary.

From the Democratic side, leading officials suggest no Democratic incumbents still facing primary challenges are at risk.

One race the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is keeping close tabs on is in Massachusetts, where Rep. John Tierney has a crowded primary. At the moment, though, a top Democrat involved in House strategy says polling and other indicators suggest Tierney will survive the September primary.

On the GOP side, there are long shot challenges to a couple of Senate incumbents still to come – in Kansas and Tennessee. On the House GOP side, there are some concerns raised about two or three incumbents facing challenges in Michigan and Tennessee.

One other wildcard: a looming Florida court ruling on a suit by Democratic leading groups challenging the congressional district lines drawn by the GOP-controlled Florida legislature. That conceivably could reshape a race or three.

3. Will Kansas replay in 2016?

The Kansas Senate GOP primary still to come pits incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts against conservative challenger Milton Wolf.

As of now, odds are Wolf loses next month. But Manu Raju of Politico, just back from Kansas, tells us Wolf is unlikely to go quietly – and that could impact the 2016 re-election bid of the other Kansas senator, Jerry Moran, who also happens to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

One of Wolf’s “red meat” tweets evoking Mississippi:

milton wolf

4. The Democrats’ secret 2016 strategy

Beyond the battle for control of the House and Senate, it is the governor’s races that will get the most attention this year.

But CNN’s Peter Hamby suggests we look down the state ballot a notch or two – at races for secretary of state in key 2016 presidential battlegrounds.

Peter reports the Democratic National Committee and a couple friendly Super PACS are quietly getting involved in secretary of state races in places like Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico and Colorado.

“The goal here obviously is to protect what they see as the rights of voters,” said Hamby. “But also those are all very important states for 2016 to have friendly secretaries of state running elections in big battleground states next year.”

5. All politics is local

Molly Ball of The Atlantic took us inside another down ballot Democratic strategy: looking for gains at the state legislative level.

“Democrats have really gotten their butts kicked in state legislatures in the last couple of cycles,” said Ball. “And that was a lot of what led to the redistricting gains that the Republicans were able to make because of course it is the state legislatures who draw those maps.”

Many of the party’s flip targets are in blue states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and their fundraising is up about 25 percent over the last cycle so they think they can finally turn the tide.

But the GOP is confident that the Democrats’ goals will be an uphill climb in an midterm election year.


Filed under: Inside Politics
soundoff (36 Responses)
  1. king

    lesson folks, our capitalistic system is preditorial. business depends on business here in america to start and grow. big corporations, are looking abroad, and moving their resources their. if we don't get something in this country so they can feed on, they will leave us and go to china in an instant. obamacare is one of the big program that are keeping them here and allowing other businesses to come to our shores. if the repubs will stop blocking and obstructing our infrastructure modernization, that will pull in a whole lot of businesses to either spend their resources here or move back to our shores, will be nice. compares with the repubs so called bills, which is cut cut cut, along with the dirty pipeline that will hire about 800 Canadians is all they can come up with trying to fool the american people that they have been doing their jobs. remodeling america can take the next 15 to 20 years of steady and enormous amount jobs and businesses flowing in from everywhere to get some of the pie. the repubs will rather see us lose our number one status to china than give this president a win.

    July 6, 2014 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
  2. Spgfld Tom

    No Obama third term!!! Hillary should bow out of her quest for the presidential nomination and concentrate on lifting her family out of poverty.

    July 6, 2014 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
  3. Gurgyl

    -if you love USA, get rid off all republican trash and ask every senator and congressman to Freeze on immigration for twenty years or so. These foreigners are sending our dollar to India, it is a bad sign, imbalance our trade. These guys are shipping our jobs to India, restrict this. Do not bring this medical trash, because these India guys are buying medical degrees and coming here. Focus on infrastructure, Jobs for only American Citizens. Nab, bust if employers hire non-citizens, non-green-card holders. Put a stop to immigration for a while. Good lucks.

    July 6, 2014 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  4. Gunderson

    Um, sorry king,
    Just read where Walgreens, Drug Stores, etc, are Incorporating Overseas to reduce their tax rate. You can only get so much out of the system. Many businesses move Off shore or go bankrupt because of tax burden. You like political atmosphere in Washington? You voted for it. If you look carefully you will see the Obama Administration has done eveyrthing backwards, uh make that Obama his self. Un employment is still bad. But you keep voting the way you do now. If you aren't in dior poverty now you will soon get there. Republicans are trying to help you, but when you vote against yourself there ain't much they can do. The great unwashed have spoken, and you don't like the results. Wise up.

    July 6, 2014 10:35 am at 10:35 am |
  5. luke,az

    Joe Biden for President and Elizabeth Warren as his Vice Presidential running mate. Hillary is not presidential material. She does not have what it takes to be the leader of the free world.

    July 6, 2014 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  6. Liberal_garbage

    Europe can keep her.
    BTW campaigning in Europe for the American presidency? Real in touch there.

    July 6, 2014 10:43 am at 10:43 am |
  7. Name JK. SFL. THE GOP HOWDEE GOWDEE SHOW with special guest ISSA the CLOWN

    The GOP conservatives stacked the court and this is what you get for ever voting for the GOP, the SHAFT!!!!!!!

    July 6, 2014 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
  8. Gurgyl

    Yes, on Hillary16.

    July 6, 2014 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  9. king

    Gunderson
    our corporations pay less taxes than most industrial countries right now. which corporations pay over 30 percen of taxes, or even 20 percent of taxes research that. the repubs crap of less taxes doesn't know a thing about business or globalization. do you think that our corporations have 3 trillion dollars off shore just to bring it back to america. i don't care if Obama gave them 0 percent on taxes they will not bring that money back, that money is for globalization, that is investing in china and India, building their economies and war machines against us. we only have 300 million folks for crying out loud, china and India has almost 3 billion. which business man see a growing sector like especially china, with all those spenders, and modernization and wouldn't jump on the opportunity. especially when they look back at our country and see the repubs blocking every modernization to our infrastructure obama throws at them. come out of your fox news dream world and look at the the large picture. this is globalization folks and every one is prepared and ready to burst out from the starting point.

    July 6, 2014 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  10. Hugo

    Gurgyl- You are an idiot and a racist, congratulations you get your progressive liberal ID card.

    July 6, 2014 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  11. Chris..E.al

    And just think about it ? 0bama beat her out 6 years ago ? ? ?

    July 6, 2014 11:44 am at 11:44 am |
  12. rs

    Well, at least she won't embarrass America they way Romney did in his big "European Vacation" prior to the last election. The GOP talks a good game and loves to whine about the situation of world politics and foreign affairs, but foreign policy is much harder than it looks, and simply repeating their idiotic demands on the other nations of the world rarely turns out well.

    July 6, 2014 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  13. Tony D

    Does her book tour take through Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Ukraine, etc.? You know, all the places she turned into a disaster zone as Secretary of State?

    July 6, 2014 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  14. just asking

    rs
    but foreign policy is much harder than it looks
    -–

    yes, obviously way too much for the community organizer in chief to grasp, comprehend and handle.

    July 6, 2014 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  15. Tommy G

    Good move to get out of the USA Hillary! The more you toured the US, the more you stuck your foot in your mouth and the lower your poll numbers went. I'm sure the Europeans will make sure they protect you and build you up again.

    July 6, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  16. Thomas

    Hillary Clinton spent her Fourth of July across the Atlantic, selling “Hard Choices” to a European audience .

    Then she's going to disappear for most of the summer – in the Hamptons.

    Life Is Hard , sounds like some “Hard Choices” !

    July 6, 2014 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  17. Just

    Has Hillary (Obama 2.0) been able to communicate anything that would qualify her for POTUS besides a lucky marriage?

    July 6, 2014 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  18. DaveinIL

    Ah, Hillary doing what she does best. Jetting around the world, shaking hands with government officials and looking like she knows what she's doing in photo op'swithout actually achieving anything. Kind of a like her Secretary of State road trips.

    July 6, 2014 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  19. Gurgyl

    I tell this nation truth, not racist. O.k, do not bull.

    July 6, 2014 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  20. Robert N. constant

    The European community looks on George W. Bush and his heritage as a world tragedy. Europe will be content with anybody other than another jingo imperialistic martinet the Republican Party created in George W. Bush.

    July 6, 2014 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  21. Tampa Tim

    And the brain dead cry, "We need more Bush Doctrine!" What the GOBaggers have yet to realize, is that when W and Cheney destabilized Iraq, it became an Al Qaida recruiting ground. No Republican is fit to be president (except Huntsman.)

    July 6, 2014 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  22. saltydog77

    So Hillary,I hear you donate your speaking fees to charity. The Clinton Foundation you say. Isn't that run by YOU. And how much pay do you accept to run the Clinton Foundation? How much of each donation actually goes to the charity and how much goes to the foundation(your speaking fee)?My dear Hillary, isn't that the same as the fox having a key to the hen house? You arequite the sneaky one my dear!!!

    July 6, 2014 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  23. don in albuquerque

    Tommy G
    Bet she doesn't turn into a national embarrassment like MittWitt.

    July 6, 2014 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  24. don in albuquerque

    Gunderson
    "Republicans are trying to help you"???????????? Bwahahahahahahaha! You need to stop drinking. Why not ask about 4500 graves how much help they were.

    July 6, 2014 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  25. Harry Howzen

    Hillary is a bigger liar, is more devious, and is a much more power-hungry Alinsky-ite than Barack has ever dreamed of being. As bad as Obama has been for America...another Clinton in the WH would be much worse.

    July 6, 2014 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
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