Poll: Democrats with slight edge in two key Senate races
July 15th, 2014
11:54 AM ET
3 months ago

Poll: Democrats with slight edge in two key Senate races

(CNN) - The Democrats have a slight lead in two crucial Senate showdowns that could decide whether the party keeps control of the chamber this November, according to new polling.

And NBC News/Marist surveys released Tuesday also indicate that two important gubernatorial races are all knotted up.

According to the poll, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado leads his GOP challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, 48%-41%, among registered voters, with one in ten undecided. In the state's gubernatorial contest, Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has a 49%-43% edge over Republican challenger Bob Beauprez, a former congressman. Seven percent are undecided.

In the Senate race in Michigan, the poll indicates that Democratic Rep. Gary Peters has a 43%-37% edge over Republican candidate Terry Lynn Land, a former Michigan secretary of state, with a high 19% undecided. The winner in November will succeed longtime Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, who is retiring. In the gubernatorial contest, GOP Gov. Rick Snyder holds a 46%-44% margin over Democratic nominee Mark Schauer, with 9% undecided.

Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the Senate (53 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the party). But in the midterms, the party is defending 21 of the 36 seats up for grabs, with half of those Democratic-held seats in red or purple states.

"The early edge goes to the Democrats" said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "But these are not states they can put into their win column just yet."

When it comes to governors' races, the Republicans are defending 22 of the 36 seats up for grabs in November. And some of them are in states that Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012, such as Michigan, as well as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Maine, Nevada and New Mexico. But Democrats also have some vulnerable seats to defend, in Colorado, as well as Arkansas and Illinois. And they won't have cakewalks in Connecticut and Massachusetts.

In the Senate races, the poll indicates that a gender gap is helping the Democrats. Udall tied up with Gardner among male voters, but is up by 12-percentage points among females. In Michigan, Peters' holds a 13-point lead over his female opponent among women voters.

In Colorado, big leads among Latino voters are helping Udall and Hickenlooper.

The GOP candidates appear to be getting a lift from perceptions about President Barack Obama, and the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. Fifty-two percent of Colorado voters and half of Michigan voters say they view the national health care law as a bad idea. And while the President carried both states in the 2012 election, Obama's approval rating in both states now stands at 40%. Republicans are trying to frame the midterms as a referendum on the President and Obamacare.

Complete Coverage: 2014 Midterm Elections

The NBC News/Marist polls were conducted July 7-10, with 914 registered voters in Colorado and 870 registered voters in Michigan questioned by telephone. The Colorado survey had a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The Michigan poll had a sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report


Filed under: 2014 • Colorado • Michigan • Poll • Senate Race
soundoff (28 Responses)
  1. Lynda/Minnesota

    Oh hey. Democrats have the lead (and Republicans have the momentum) because well, you know .... Mittens is out and about drumming up speculation that this momentum thingy is the real deal.

    July 15, 2014 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  2. Rick McDaniel

    CNN would say that........whether it was even remotely true or not. Democratic Party propagandists..........always.

    July 15, 2014 12:03 pm at 12:03 pm |
  3. Tommy G

    "The early edge goes to the Democrats" said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "But these are not states they can put into their win column just yet."
    --

    Wow... I'm shocked! A Democrat friendly poll showing Democrats up slightly on defending two of the Senate seats they already had in the bag. The fact that they can't put them in the win column is itself bad news for the Democrats. Barely ahead in these states means really bad news in those red states Democrats. Red states need to belly up to the bar and do their duty and get of the Democrats. That's NINE seats right there so these seats are meaningless and would be gravy to the Republicans. Good to see Republicans are still in the hunt there. Obama still has time for a few more disasters before the election.

    July 15, 2014 12:05 pm at 12:05 pm |
  4. Fauxcahontas for President

    November 2014 will be critical for the fate of this country and the direction we are heading.

    July 15, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  5. Luc

    GOP trying to frame midterm elections around Obama care again. What imagination. America likes the ACA overwhelmingly even republicans favor by 73%. Is there not any brains running the GOP party they are crazy to think that Americans will put up with the same platform for another election. Come up with some original ideas to move the country forward and I am not talking about more tax breaks for the rich. se you in 2024

    July 15, 2014 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  6. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Another useless poll. However since I am a Michigander I can tell you many of us are supporting Gary Peters and we don't want Terry Lynn Land the Kock flunkie. And I make sure I tell everyone to get out and vote!

    July 15, 2014 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  7. Hector Slagg

    Well Shucks,
    If you like how the country is going, 29 hour work week, 50 million on food stamps, high unemployment, floods of illegals for the tax paying public, health care for all, 18 Trillion Dollar Federal Debt, roads and bridges needing repairs, electric grid failing then the liberal democrat plan is for you. You will like the 1930's re-visited !!

    July 15, 2014 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  8. Gurgyl

    Republican Party is in a mess, defunct.

    July 15, 2014 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  9. Rudy NYC

    Tommy G

    "The early edge goes to the Democrats" said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "But these are not states they can put into their win column just yet."
    -

    Wow... I'm shocked! A Democrat friendly poll showing Democrats up slightly on defending two of the Senate seats they already had in the bag.
    ========================================================
    I was really shocked, too, when a poll conducted by the Boston Herald showed a plurality of people thinking that we would be better off had Romney won. Imagine that.

    July 15, 2014 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  10. Much thunder...little rain

    If the illegals keep coming across the boarder. Kiss Harry Reid's senate goodbye

    July 15, 2014 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  11. Silence DoGood

    Dems get out the vote!
    Say no to the corporate theocracy.
    If we don't stand up to the minority radical right, they will be telling us all what to do, eat, think, and believe.

    July 15, 2014 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  12. Tony D

    Interesting, two Democrat candidates barely hanging on to Democrat seats in two blue states. And the Democrats think this is wonderful news? Well, when all of these illegals start flooding into these states you can kiss that slight lead good bye. Thanks Obama!

    July 15, 2014 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  13. Rudy NYC

    Much thunder...little rain

    If the illegals keep coming across the boarder. Kiss Harry Reid's senate goodbye.
    --------------------------------
    Seeing how the House Republicans have refused to take up any votes, they will eventually be blamed for flood of humanity coming at our southern border. Republicans rejected the comprehensive immigration reform bill passed in the Senate, claiming that they wanted a smaller piecemeal approach.

    Where's the PIECE? The first piece, where is it? So far, Republicans have done absolutely nothing. They haven't even voted to fund their highly touted wall, which they claim is the solution to all of our problems.

    July 15, 2014 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  14. O'drama ya Mama

    If a poll favors the Republican narrative they come out here in full force while Democrats disregard the legitimacy of the poll.

    If a poll favors the Democratic narrative they come out here in full force while Republicans disregard the legitimacy of the poll.

    Same polls, different outcomes, same partisan responses. And around we go!!

    July 15, 2014 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  15. Tommy G

    Rudy NYC
    I was really shocked, too, when a poll conducted by the Boston Herald showed a plurality of people thinking that we would be better off had Romney won. Imagine that.
    --

    That is truly shocking since Massachusetts is about as brain dead blue as it gets. I guess they must have occasional bouts of reality intrude on their liberal coma.

    July 15, 2014 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  16. Thomas

    Ted Cruz is a real Texan ?

    Rick Perry loves California !

    July 15, 2014 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  17. The Republican Party Is Dead To Me

    Hard to understand how adults can be told the truth but ignore it, then hear lie after lie, and believe it with every fiber of their being. How else would any republican with nothing to offer but convoluted logic and hate based problem solving techniques get elected.

    July 15, 2014 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  18. Bill from GA

    Hector Slagg – " Well Shucks,
    If you like how the country is going, ... "

    if you like how the country was going when Obama first took office and didn't have repubs obstructing his agenda every chance they got (like they have done the last 4 years), then return the House, and a 60 seat majority in the Senate, to the Dems.

    July 15, 2014 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  19. Silence DoGood

    @Tony D
    Interesting, two Democrat candidates barely hanging on to Democrat seats in two blue states. And the Democrats think this is wonderful news? Well, when all of these illegals start flooding into these states you can kiss that slight lead good bye. Thanks Obama!
    -----------–
    Wait. I thought the tin foil narrative was that the "illegals" would all be allowed to vote and thereby help Dems.
    You guys should have a web page somewhere that keeps all the conspiracy theories consistent.
    Although I guess that is really not the purpose.

    July 15, 2014 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  20. a concerned citizen

    Oh the polls again, I think the gop is in for a big surprise this year, I'm going yo do my part, rent a few buses, and go get me sum illegals, well bus around the state voting at every stop yee haw!! That's why we need voter suppression laws, gotta keep them from voting, at all costs, you guys are sad, let's pass laws, addressing a problem we don't have and refuse to pass laws addressing problems we do have, brilliant!

    July 15, 2014 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  21. Ray E (Georgia)

    Ha,Ha.
    Bill from Georgia. Sorry to break it to you but the state switched to Republican after Sonny Perdue, former democrat turned republican got elected. All the democrat representives change parties. why haven't you. I have a buddy, like you here is still hanging onto the past. When Obama took office the country was going to hell in a hand basket because the democrats allowed everybody to get a mortgage with nothing down and no means to pay for it. Plenty of takers on that. So all that money that was supposed to be paid, by the borrowers, was nowhere to be found. Another big liberal plan bit the dust. But keep hanging onto that idea. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

    July 15, 2014 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  22. Would You Look at That

    If Quinn wins the Illinois race again, I'm moving across the river to Missouri. Quinn's net approval rating is/was (haven't checked on it in a while) -26%. There has never been a bigger dolt be voted in as governor

    July 15, 2014 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  23. a concerned citizen

    Oh yeah, you guys are just to smart, elect two omrich Republican oil men, and by the end if the first year whalla, were at war and invaded an oil rich country, giving then vast wealth through their companies many no bid government contracts worth tens of billions, big surprise they're. Only to find out they created the war, just for the profits your kids die, they get rich sounds like a deal worth doing again, cause that's their goal.

    July 15, 2014 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  24. SliiCcc

    Ted Cruz "Rafael Edward Cruz" is a Cuban-American that was born in Canada and definitely a fraud whose taking all of the brain-dead Repugs for a ride. Perhaps you all will wake up one day before this Wacko Bird leads you too far down the beaten path with hate-filled speech and useless rhetoric which confuses you to the point of voting against your own interest and what's REALLY good for your family and this country. Good luck on the Cuban-Canadian's path...

    July 15, 2014 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  25. it must be said

    Bill from GA
    Hector Slagg – " Well Shucks,
    If you like how the country is going, ... "
    -–
    if you like how the country was going when Obama first took office and didn't have repubs obstructing his agenda every chance they got (like they have done the last 4 years), then return the House, and a 60 seat majority in the Senate, to the Dems.
    --

    And instead of addressing pressing economic and unemployment issues, Obama and the Democrats spent a year jamming Obamacare down our throats and lying to the country about it. That is why the American people through the Democrats out of office in record numbers in 2010, costing Pelosi her job (thank God!). But the full extent of the Obama-Democrat Obamacare lies were not revealed until AFTER the 2012 election thanks to your propaganda wing, the MSM. Obama and the Democrats will held accountable this November for those massive lies. After being lied to repeatedly by Obama and the Democrats, the American people have no intention of handing the keys back to a bunch of lying crooks hell bent on wrecking this country.

    July 15, 2014 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
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