Poll: Republicans slightly behind Clinton in key 2016 states
July 17th, 2014
11:04 AM ET
2 months ago

Poll: Republicans slightly behind Clinton in key 2016 states

(CNN) – A new poll indicates Hillary Clinton is either tied with or holds a narrow advantage over potential Republican presidential contenders in Iowa and New Hampshire.

According to a new NBC News/Marist survey, Clinton is tied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 45% in Iowa and barely edges out New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 44%-43%.

The poll also included a hypothetical matchup between Clinton and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who's considering a 2016 run. Clinton is slightly ahead of Bush in Iowa, 46%-42%.

The survey comes as Christie travels to the Hawkeye State on Thursday - his first trip in two years to the state that holds the first presidential nominating contest.

2016 hovers over Christie Iowa trip

In New Hampshire, another key primary state, Clinton leads Paul, 46%-43%, and holds a 47%-42% margin over Christie. She's also ahead of Bush in the Granite State, 47%-42%.

Here's how the numbers line up for the potential GOP caucuses in Iowa:

Bush 12%
Paul 12%
Paul Ryan 11%
Rick Santorum 9%
Christie 8%
Rick Perry 7%
Ted Cruz 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Scott Walker 5%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Undecided 20%

Paul and Christie fare better in a potential New Hampshire GOP primary. Like in Iowa, however, a sizable portion of the Republican electorate is undecided:

Paul – 14%
Christie – 13%
Bush – 10%
Cruz – 9%
Ryan – 7%
Rubio – 7%
Walker – 6%
Perry – 5%
Jindal – 4%
Santorum – 3%
Undecided 22%

As for the Democratic side, the Iowa poll asked about Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden, leaving out other potential contenders, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts:

Clinton 70%
Biden 20%
Undecided 10%

And Clinton also holds a massive lead among Democrats in New Hampshire:

Clinton – 74%
Biden – 18%
Undecided – 8%

The Iowa survey was conducted July 7-13, with 558 potential Republican caucus-goers and a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll included 538 potential Democratic caucus-goers, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. For questions about the general election, 1,599 potential voters were interviewed, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.5%.

The New Hampshire survey was also conducted July 7-13, with 544 potential GOP primary voters and a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. For questions about the potential Democratic primary, 479 potential voters were interviewed, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. On the general election, 1,342 registered voters were questioned, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Rand Paul
soundoff (43 Responses)
  1. Lynda/Minnesota

    Well, I'll give this poll all the credit it deserves. It managed to find an equal number of Dems, Indies, and Repubs to question.

    July 17, 2014 11:15 am at 11:15 am |
  2. Sniffit

    This is a somewhat bizarre attempt at analysis. The focus is on "key PRIMARY states", and then polling comparing support for people in different parties is presented...sort of implying that those states being key primary states makes the polling comparing people in different parties more important. It doesn't. In fact, that implication (yes, it's there) doesn't even make any sense.

    July 17, 2014 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  3. smith

    Its going to be very difficult to knock out Clinton. Hard to say who have the best shot. Maybe Jeb?

    July 17, 2014 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  4. Silence DoGood

    I find it very funny that Republicans choose "undecided" over the top guy.
    They're like: "Which version of crazy do I choose? Pro-rich, Religious Theocracy, or both?!"

    July 17, 2014 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  5. Rudy NYC

    What are they talking about here? I saw a couple of polls this morning and just like in 2012 the "Other" candidate is leading all Republican polls. The "Other" candidate is leading by double digits in many of them over every conservative name in this article.

    July 17, 2014 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  6. It must be said

    Sure looks like Hillary Clinton is NOT the runaway, no-contest winner in 2016 as many of the whack job lefties in here claim she is. Once the country knows all the facts about this empty pants suit, you can stick a fork in her.

    July 17, 2014 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  7. Bill from GA

    Poll Hillary against Romney.

    Mitts WILL run again if he thinks he is certain to win.

    With Hillary's balloon slowly deflating, the Dems had better start looking for a 'Barack Obama – version 2016'.

    July 17, 2014 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  8. just asking

    Sniffit
    This is a somewhat bizarre attempt at analysis. The focus is on "key PRIMARY states", and then polling comparing support for people in different parties is presented...sort of implying that those states being key primary states makes the polling comparing people in different parties more important. It doesn't. In fact, that implication (yes, it's there) doesn't even make any sense.
    ---

    i don't think I have ever seen a person so consumed with trying to find hidden meanings and motives and racism as you. might want to see somebody about this problem.

    July 17, 2014 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  9. Lynda/Minnesota

    @ Rudy: They're trying to get under your skin by doing to you what gets under their skin, and expecting you to react in kind.

    Thanks, Rudy. I know it and you know it. The last person who ever got under my skin was one of my brothers ... oh, I don't know ... probably 30 years ago. We grandmas have many, many years of experience under our belts dealing with "things".

    Rocking chairs or no rocking chairs.

    July 17, 2014 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  10. Tony D

    What is striking is the long list of young, energetic Republican candidates with a lot of good experience and ideas.

    And then there are the two Democrat Dinosaurs, Biden and Clinton. One considered by many to be a clown show and the other running just to be the first woman to hold the office, as if we haven't learned our lesson about voting for somebody just because it would be a novelty. Both are rejected Democrat candidates. I am sure the media will portray them both as old white people right? Or in Hillary's case, rich old white people.

    July 17, 2014 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  11. Rudy NYC

    Fair comment with regards to Valerie Plame. You are correct, this administration is very similar and just as vindictive as the Bush. But since Bush is no longer president, I'm not sure what your point is other than to try and deflect what you just acknowledged. As far as the ad hominem attack, not sure what your complaint is or maybe I'm wrong and not almost every one of your comments contains some form of "demographic Armageddon" or "they can't stand seeing a black man as president" or "the fear brown people".
    ------------------------------–
    What else should minorities think when they see an angry mob of white people shouting out stuff like, "He's not one of us. We need to take our country back?" Bachmann and Palin have made their political careers out of saying stuff like that. Can you think of any other conclusion that can be drawn? I can't.

    July 17, 2014 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  12. Tampa Tim

    Hillary's balloon is deflating? She sure beats the republicans running a recycled condom.

    July 17, 2014 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  13. Ol' Yeller

    Paul – 14%
    Christie – 13%
    Bush – 10%
    Cruz – 9%
    Ryan – 7%
    Rubio – 7%
    Walker – 6%
    Perry – 5%
    Jindal – 4%
    Santorum – 3%

    The clown car.... likely the percentage they would get in the general election, if the Dems ran a toaster oven.

    July 17, 2014 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  14. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Ol' Yeller
    The repulicants are sooo scared of Hillary and wetting their pants over her... yet they can't field a candidate worth a plug nickel
    ----------------------------------------------------–
    As one of the Usual Suspects likes to say on this thread "They've got NOTHING".
    I would add that they have LESS than nothing.
    It stands to reason that the Party that has nothing to offer the country by way of ideas finds itself in the unenviable position of not having a viable nominee for the presidency....YET AGAIN

    July 17, 2014 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  15. excuse my rant

    Lynda/Minnesota
    Well, I'll give this poll all the credit it deserves. It managed to find an equal number of Dems, Indies, and Repubs to question.
    ___________________________
    But is an equal number a representative number? If it is not the results may be biased.

    July 17, 2014 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  16. Lynda/Minnesota

    @ Sniffit

    I'll agree with bizarre. I'm not understanding the significance of breaking down registered vs resident voters? Generally polls have been categorized as registered vs likely voters.

    What is the likelihood of folks being truthful when broken down into such categories? Yeah, I'm a resident that hasn't bothered to ever register but I'm all for (A) (B) or (C).

    Weird.

    July 17, 2014 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  17. salty dog

    IMBS, dud you check out states most dependent on the federal government, from wall street cheat sheet? Guess who tops the list, 3 of 4, miss, Alabama, Louisiana, all take over 3$ for every one they earn, miss, 46% of income is from the government, Louisiana, 3.35 for every dollar, 44.3% of income from feds, yup,,your red states got it all figured out, sad, they are hardcore gop, and yet?

    July 17, 2014 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  18. salty dog

    Tony, just can't see the forest for the trees, lmao

    July 17, 2014 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  19. salty dog

    It must, did you check out the statistics I mentioned? Its from the wall street journal, so its not a left leaning source, they have thing called cheat sheet, you really should check it out. Sad, but true the deep red states just don't get it,they vote in the party that's trying to eliminate their existence

    July 17, 2014 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  20. salty dog

    States most dependent on the government, from wall street cheat sheet, read it and weep, and maybe learn a little something about the gop

    July 17, 2014 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
  21. Silence DoGood

    Tony D
    What is striking is the long list of young, energetic Republican candidates with a lot of good experience and ideas.

    And then there are the two Democrat Dinosaurs, Biden and Clinton. One considered by many to be a clown show and the other running just to be the first woman to hold the office, as if we haven't learned our lesson about voting for somebody just because it would be a novelty. Both are rejected Democrat candidates. I am sure the media will portray them both as old white people right? Or in Hillary's case, rich old white people.
    -------------–
    What is striking is the long list of young, energetic Republican candidates with a lot of good experience and ideas.
    ---–
    GOP and TP ideas boil down to a few simple philosophies. Take your choice:
    – remove all corporate controls and responsibility & assume corporate nannies will take care of workers (Walmart!!)
    – establish a Christian Theocracy with moral laws and assume everyone is the same religion
    – de-evolve into the gun-totin' wild west and give people "freedom" to shoot, abuse, steal, poison nature & discriminate at will

    July 17, 2014 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
  22. Lynda/Minnesota

    excuse my rant
    Lynda/Minnesota
    Well, I'll give this poll all the credit it deserves. It managed to find an equal number of Dems, Indies, and Repubs to question.
    ___________________________
    But is an equal number a representative number? If it is not the results may be biased.
    --------------

    In this poll? Who knows. Its been so broken down into various subcategories it's hard to decipher. From what I gather, Indies outpace both Dems and Repubs. Which could be an oversampling considering how many Repubs are too embarrassed to call themselves such, but will in all likelihood still vote Repub.

    July 17, 2014 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  23. Rudy NYC

    Tony D

    What is striking is the long list of young, energetic Republican candidates with a lot of good experience and ideas.
    ---------------------------–
    Paul – He cannot run from his own record, nor his father's, whom he has defended. He had to purge his staff of racists.
    Christie – He's a Yankee from the North. He'll never win the Republican nomination.
    Bush – He's your best bet, but he has to answer for what he did in the 2000 election. They delayed the recount.
    Cruz – Once he officially applies for U.S. citizenship he'll be eligible in about 14 years.
    Ryan – The budget wonk who say what the debt would finally be after his budget balances in 2050. "I didn't run the #s."
    Rubio – You're joking, right? He's such an obvious panderer, anyway. No idea what he stands for, only who pays him.
    Walker – One look at his numbers and you will see why he's in the bottom half of this poll.
    Perry – Perry has far too many evangelical friends that are filled with hate for most folks.
    Jindal – One look at his numbers, and that rebuttal speech, and you will see he's a bottom poller, too.
    Santorum – Theocracies-R-Us.. Does not believe in separation of church and state. "The 1st Amendment is wrong."

    No wonder "Other Candidate" is leading all of the polls. Don't hold out hope for another run by Flip Flopney, either. He would have to answer for the estimated tax return that he let us glimpse in 2012, and that's not happening. Nahp.

    July 17, 2014 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  24. kobrakai7474

    I realize there is demand for such information so the pollsters go out and meet that demand, but this will almost certainly end up as among the most meaningless information gathered in the entire 2016 election cycle. The simple fact is that a poll like this... more than two years before the election and a year and a half before even semi-serious primary campaigning begins... is simply about name recognition. Love her or hate her, Hillary Clinton is well known in the this country including among those who are NOT political junkies so, of course, she will score well. Such numbers will continue to be meaningless and have little correlation to how we eventually vote for at least another year.

    July 17, 2014 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  25. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Tony D

    What is striking is the long list of young, energetic Republican candidates with a lot of good experience and ideas.
    -----------------------------------------------------
    Yes indeed, about as striking as that long list of energetic wannabe-but-going-nowhere-unqualified list of clowns you tried to shove down people's throats in 2012.
    What is really, REALLY striking is your unabated and apparently insatiable need for self-delusion.
    Whatever helps you fall asleep at night.... you and Karl Rove and the rest of the Usual Suspects.

    July 17, 2014 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
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