Poll: Republicans slightly behind Clinton in key 2016 states
July 17th, 2014
11:04 AM ET
1 month ago

Poll: Republicans slightly behind Clinton in key 2016 states

(CNN) – A new poll indicates Hillary Clinton is either tied with or holds a narrow advantage over potential Republican presidential contenders in Iowa and New Hampshire.

According to a new NBC News/Marist survey, Clinton is tied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 45% in Iowa and barely edges out New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 44%-43%.

The poll also included a hypothetical matchup between Clinton and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who's considering a 2016 run. Clinton is slightly ahead of Bush in Iowa, 46%-42%.

The survey comes as Christie travels to the Hawkeye State on Thursday - his first trip in two years to the state that holds the first presidential nominating contest.

2016 hovers over Christie Iowa trip

In New Hampshire, another key primary state, Clinton leads Paul, 46%-43%, and holds a 47%-42% margin over Christie. She's also ahead of Bush in the Granite State, 47%-42%.

Here's how the numbers line up for the potential GOP caucuses in Iowa:

Bush 12%
Paul 12%
Paul Ryan 11%
Rick Santorum 9%
Christie 8%
Rick Perry 7%
Ted Cruz 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Scott Walker 5%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Undecided 20%

Paul and Christie fare better in a potential New Hampshire GOP primary. Like in Iowa, however, a sizable portion of the Republican electorate is undecided:

Paul – 14%
Christie – 13%
Bush – 10%
Cruz – 9%
Ryan – 7%
Rubio – 7%
Walker – 6%
Perry – 5%
Jindal – 4%
Santorum – 3%
Undecided 22%

As for the Democratic side, the Iowa poll asked about Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden, leaving out other potential contenders, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts:

Clinton 70%
Biden 20%
Undecided 10%

And Clinton also holds a massive lead among Democrats in New Hampshire:

Clinton – 74%
Biden – 18%
Undecided – 8%

The Iowa survey was conducted July 7-13, with 558 potential Republican caucus-goers and a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll included 538 potential Democratic caucus-goers, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. For questions about the general election, 1,599 potential voters were interviewed, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.5%.

The New Hampshire survey was also conducted July 7-13, with 544 potential GOP primary voters and a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. For questions about the potential Democratic primary, 479 potential voters were interviewed, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. On the general election, 1,342 registered voters were questioned, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.


Filed under: 2016 • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Rand Paul
soundoff (43 Responses)
  1. Malory Archer

    Lynda/Minnesota
    Well, I'll give this poll all the credit it deserves. It managed to find an equal number of Dems, Indies, and Repubs to question.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Which means it's skewed as more Americans identify themselves as dems than they do reds, and more Americans identify themselves as indies than they do reds. However, more Americans identify themselves as dems than they do indies.

    July 17, 2014 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  2. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Tampa Tim

    Hillary's balloon is deflating? She sure beats the republicans running a recycled condom
    -----------------------------------------------------
    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAomg!gasp!choke!HAHAHAHAHAHAHAbreathe!breathe!HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

    July 17, 2014 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Ol' Yeller
    The repulicants are sooo scared of Hillary and wetting their pants over her... yet they can't field a candidate worth a plug nickel
    ------------------–
    As one of the Usual Suspects likes to say on this thread "They've got NOTHING".
    I would add that they have LESS than nothing.
    It stands to reason that the Party that has nothing to offer the country by way of ideas finds itself in the unenviable position of not having a viable nominee for the presidency....YET AGAIN
    ================================================================
    The reason the Republicans do not have a viable candidate is because they don't have anyone who has done anything of legislative significance for over a decade. They've allowed themselves to be led by the likes of The Grand Limbaugh, and other folks who could not possibly mount a credible campaign for any elected office.

    July 17, 2014 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  4. Gary

    Nothing to worry about here. Just wait til the Republican debates. Once America see's the clown show in full view, that gap will widen.

    July 17, 2014 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  5. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    salty dog says:
    July 17, 2014 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm
    It must, did you check out the statistics I mentioned? Its from the wall street journal, so its not a left leaning source, they have thing called cheat sheet, you really should check it out. Sad, but true the deep red states just don’t get it,they vote in the party that’s trying to eliminate their existence

    Salty.... With all due respect my brotha... Don't you remember the 2012 election when the GOP stated publicly.... This campaign will not be dictated by facts! Facts smacts, they say what they want whether it's a lie or not and their rabid uneducated base eats it up.

    July 17, 2014 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  6. Rudy NYC

    salty dog

    Tony, just can't see the forest for the trees, lmao
    ------------------------------–
    Tony would be the person who, in a Tea Party huff and a puff, so proudly asserted that The House controls spending. Everything was fine until I agreed with him and pointed out that the Tea Party House has been the biggest deficit spending House in U.S. history. Blew the roof off, i did.

    July 17, 2014 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  7. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    The reason the Republicans do not have a viable candidate is because they don't have anyone who has done anything of legislative significance for over a decade
    -----------------------------------------------------
    Quite frankly Rudy, there are reason aplenty why the Republican Party is swirling down the crapper.
    Too many to mention.
    They've become the Party of sore losers and petulance.
    The Party of self-serving flag wavers.
    The Party of lip-service to God and country whilst willingly, and wilfully ignoring Christian tenets and destroying our country.
    The Party of Greed Over People.
    I know good when I see it and evil when I see it.
    What passes for a Republican today can KMA.

    July 17, 2014 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  8. texasnotea

    Being republicon/teaparty, means the only information you get comes from the slanted gop propaganda side without real facts and very little truth so the base can't make an actual informed decision about anything,ever. Case in point,the 2012 Presidential election. Gop'ers were led to believe by fake fox and many gop talking heads that Romney was ahead by fifteen points or more. Of course he wasn't and they lied on purpose and Obama won by just exactly what the regular polls said he would win by. Same for 2014 coming up,just watch and see

    July 17, 2014 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  9. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Which means it's skewed as more Americans identify themselves as dems than they do reds, and more Americans identify themselves as indies than they do reds. However, more Americans identify themselves as dems than they do indies
    -----------------------------------------------------
    Correct Malory.

    July 17, 2014 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  10. Rudy NYC

    texasnotea

    Being republicon/teaparty, means the only information you get comes from the slanted gop propaganda side without real facts and very little truth so the base can't make an actual informed decision about anything,ever. Case in point,the 2012 Presidential election. Gop'ers were led to believe by fake fox and many gop talking heads that Romney was ahead by fifteen points or more. Of course he wasn't and they lied on purpose and Obama won by just exactly what the regular polls said he would win by. Same for 2014 coming up,just watch and see
    ========================================================
    SHH

    July 17, 2014 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  11. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Correct Malory."

    X 2

    July 17, 2014 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  12. salty dog

    I know, I know Rudy, but he called me on it, so I feel obliged to respond, and got the usual crickets, facts are not kind to the rwnj, you can lead a horse to water.... I do remember, Jeep actually had to buy airtime to set the record straight, how many right wing lunatics refused to believe the CEO, because the gop was refusing to man up, with predictable results. I'll say it again, their party's existence is 100% dependent on ignorance, if the deep south were to wake, they would be irrelevant, very quickly.

    July 17, 2014 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  13. Rick McDaniel

    Clinton may not be able to win her own primary.

    July 17, 2014 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  14. Rogue351

    A vote for ANY GOP member will most certainly result in yet another war for America. A Vote for the Tea Party or the GOP will result in the rich getting richer, not passing any profits down to the middle class, no healthcare and more guns on our streets. The reason being, responsible gun owners are NOT responsible. A responsible gun owner secures their weapon and does everything they can to not allow it to be stolen. A Tea Party gun owner buys and sells to whomever they want, when they want. Regardless of that persons intention or past history.

    July 17, 2014 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  15. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Dominican mama 4 Obama says:
    July 17, 2014 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm
    Tampa Tim

    Hillary’s balloon is deflating? She sure beats the republicans running a recycled condom
    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————
    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAomg!gasp!choke!HAHAHAHAHAHAHAbreathe!breathe!HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

    Ok Tim that was hilarious!!😄😄😄

    July 17, 2014 02:02 pm at 2:02 pm |
  16. tomdavie

    So, Hillary Clinton is still winning despite of the fact the others have been campaigning on and off there for about 6 months now and Hillary has not done any campaigning in these states at all.

    I have no idea how this spells good news for anyone except Hillary Clinton.

    And by the way, there is a whole raft of the tea party / libertarians hiding as 'independents' so they are asking a lopsided group of folks who lean to the right.

    So the fact is Clinton is leading even more than the polls show.

    July 17, 2014 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  17. Rudy NYC

    tomdavie wrote:

    "And by the way, there is a whole raft of the tea party / libertarians hiding as 'independents' so they are asking a lopsided group of folks who lean to the right. "
    ------------------------------
    There are a few "independents" without any declared ideology roaming around here who deny being Rand Lubbers.

    July 17, 2014 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  18. fareed247

    It looks like "undecided" is way out front of the rest of the republican wanna bees. That is par for the course for Obstructionist that support nothing for the good of America. Get back to us when the Pee Pot republican party can come up with a candidate who can beat "undecided" and then we will talk about potential presidential candidate. Right now Hillary is "undeclared" and she is 20+ ahead of "undecided" who is nearly 10 points ahead of all the usual suspects.

    July 17, 2014 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
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