CNN Poll: Romney tops Obama but loses to Clinton
July 27th, 2014
08:29 AM ET
2 months ago

CNN Poll: Romney tops Obama but loses to Clinton

Washington (CNN) - If a rematch of the 2012 presidential election were held today, GOP nominee Mitt Romney would top President Barack Obama in the popular vote, according to a new national survey.

But a CNN/ORC International poll also indicates that if Romney changes his mind and runs again for the White House, Hillary Clinton would best him by double digits in a hypothetical showdown.

The survey, released Sunday morning, also suggests that more Americans see Clinton as a strong and capable leader than those who feel the same way about Obama. But Clinton's numbers on five personal characteristics have slightly edged down the past few months.

And the poll points to a jump the past month in support among Republicans for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

How Romney fares

According to the poll, if the 2012 election were somehow held again, Romney would capture 53% of the popular vote, with the President at 44%. Obama beat Romney 51%-47% in the popular vote in the 2012 contest. And he won the all-important Electoral College by a wider margin, 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206.

Last November, an ABC News/Washington Post survey indicated that if the 2012 election were held again, Romney would have had a 49%-45% edge over Obama in the popular vote.

Romney has said numerous times that he won't run for the White House again. But what if things changed and he ended up as the GOP nominee in 2016? The CNN poll indicates that 55% of Americans would support Clinton, with Romney at 42%.

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"Politically speaking, there is an interesting group of people who would not vote for Obama but would pick Clinton over Romney," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It turns out that nearly seven in ten of them are women, and 56% are Independents."

The CNN poll – just like almost every national and state survey preceding it – indicates that the former secretary of state remains the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Clinton is seriously considering a second White House run.

Two-thirds of Democrats and independents who lean toward the party say they would most likely support Clinton for the presidential nomination. One in ten say they'd back freshman Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a super star among liberals. And eight percent support Vice President Joe Biden. That's a slight swap from last year, when Biden stood at 12% and Warren at 7% in CNN polling.

Like Clinton, Biden is mulling another presidential bid, while Warren has said numerous times that she's not running in 2016.

Did book tour hurt Clinton?

The poll was conducted more than a month into Clinton's book tour for her new memoir "Hard Choices."

Did Clinton's well publicized book tour – including her controversial remarks that she and her husband Bill Clinton were "dead broke" when they left the White House in 2001 – hurt her standing with the public?

The number who say that Clinton shares their values dropped from 56% in March to 51% now, and the number who say she cares about people edged down from 56% to 53% in the same time period.

"But it's tough to tell whether Clinton's remarks were the reason for any change that might have happened. The number who believe that Clinton agrees with them on issue and can manage the government effectively also dropped, and those are not qualities that you would expect to be affected by any concerns over Clinton's wealth," said Holland. "The more likely explanation is that the book tour hurt Clinton - if it did so - not because of any specific comments that she made but because more Americans now view her as an active candidate for the White House."

GOP field all knotted up, but big jumps for Christie and Perry

The poll also indicates the race for the 2016 GOP nomination remains a wide open contest with no obvious frontrunner among the potential Republican White House hopefuls.

Thirteen percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they'd likely back Christie, with Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican presidential candidate, each at 12%. Perry – who ran for the White House last time around – and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin – the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee – are both at 11%.

Christie and Perry have each jumped five percentage points from CNN's last Republican nomination poll, which was conducted in June.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas are both at 8%, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 6%, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin at 5% and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who battled Romney deep into the 2012 GOP primary calendar, at 3%.

Turnout key in midterms

The poll's release comes with 100 days to go until November's elections. And the biggest question surrounding this year's midterms is how many people will turn out to vote.

The answer is crucial, because a smaller, more typical midterm electorate should favor the Republican Party. That's because single women, and younger and minority voters, who are big supporters of Democrats in presidential election years, tend to cast ballots in smaller numbers in the midterms.

That's the problem facing Democrats this November, as they try to hold onto their 55-45 majority in the Senate (53 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the party). The party is defending 21 of the 36 seats up this year, with half of those Democratic-held seats in red or purple states. In the House, the Democrats need to pick up an extremely challenging 17 Republican held seats to win back the majority from the GOP.

The new CNN poll illustrates the turnout problem for the Democrats.

In the generic ballot question, the Democrats have a four percentage point 48%-44% edge over the Republicans among registered voters. The generic ballot asks respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.

But when looking only at those who say they voted in the 2010 midterms – when the GOP won back the House thanks to a historic 63-seat pick up and narrowed the Democrats' control of the Senate – Republicans hold a two-point 48%-46% margin.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from July 18-20, with 1,012 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.


Filed under: 2014 • 2016 • CNN Polls • CNN/ORC International poll • CNN/ORC poll • Hillary Clinton • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (622 Responses)
  1. ABarker

    Excuses, lies, distraction...

    Thought I was talking about obama? Well, true, he's all that too but I'm actually talking about many of the respondents on here. Lets see – the poll only called people with land lines which must be old white people, if the republicans hadn't gotten in obama's way, if, if, if.... Personal responsibility seems to have fallen off the face of the country.

    Sad y'all.

    July 27, 2014 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  2. mbaron1949

    2014 is not 2012.
    2016: Mitt vs. Hillary?
    2024: Rubio vs. Michelle O?

    July 27, 2014 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  3. Anonymous

    How was the poll made?

    July 27, 2014 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  4. Shannon

    Romney won't be the nominee. I think we are wishing for a man with some integrity and leadership, though. Had about enough of the pothead adolescent in the White House....poll reflects we have had enough.

    July 27, 2014 07:17 pm at 7:17 pm |
  5. Cindy

    Will you people ever learn to think outside the Obama fabricated bubble? You can't keep taxing the rich and corporations without driving them elsewhere. When the rich are taxed to death it ultimately drives many corporations abroad and it is the middle class and poor who really do pay the price. I am not saying the elitists are right, I am just saying that that is how it works. Romney for all his perceived faults is far more experienced and aggressive for these troubled global times. I am not saying we should go to war, we've all had it with that but America needs to show strength and let the world know we are on the job, not asleep at the switch like Obama is..............

    July 27, 2014 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  6. Roger Greenberg

    I dont trust any poll such as these. Most Americans cant find Iraq or Ukraine on a map. The American public is fickle and lets face pretty stupid. Im to trust these polls? Its like asking a bunch of preaschoolers questions LOL

    July 27, 2014 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |
  7. ANNIER

    That's a no-brainer! He alienated the working backbone of this country with his "47%" remark. There is no way whatsoever he and his simpering twit of a wife identify in any way with any average Joe in this country; plus his magic underwear beliefs make him a subject of derision.

    Hilarious, the "lack of leadership" comment above. The POTUS inherited a bankrupt country, and in my estimation has done a valiant job in stopping the USA going RIGHT over the edge! He will never be given credit for ANYTHING, because the right is bound and determined to vilify him at every opportunity. Why he wanted to be the first black POTUS of the USA will FOREVER be a mystery to me!

    July 27, 2014 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  8. scott

    amazing....you all forget that mittens said during vietnam he got daddy to get him a deferment so he could ride his bike through the paris country side, nor has any of mittens sons ever served in the military,,,,,so when push comes to shove and the e/u says go pound sand to sanctions what would mitt do??? zero,,,,i believe bush sr said it best about all flip floppers...they wet their finger to see which way the wind is blowing and they still dont know what to do....america doesnt need mittens

    July 27, 2014 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  9. Will

    Sad it took America's this long to realize they made a colossal mistake.

    July 27, 2014 07:29 pm at 7:29 pm |
  10. caseyhd

    Is this the same poll that said Romney was going to win in 2012? It's truly a worthless poll to begin with. Firstly Romney would have been a terrible POTUS. Since no one has heard him for a while he does not get the 24 hr a day attacks like Obama gets from Fox.

    July 27, 2014 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  11. GI Joe

    Sooo – wasn't he supposed to win by a landslide in 2012? So much, in fact, that he didn't bother with a concession speech.
    /
    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    July 27, 2014 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  12. Dave

    I think we'd all be a little sick of our return to Iraq, presence in Syria and impending entrance into Gaza if Romney were actually President at this time.

    July 27, 2014 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  13. shane

    The conservative vote is split though among about 8 candidates, and as those candidates drop out conservative voters will eventually rally around one candidate.

    Christie is at 12% but he's a moderate, whose other voters could he get? Jeb Bush's? that's only another 10%, that's not enough to win the primary.

    July 27, 2014 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  14. Carolle

    And if Romney had won, the results may show the same "buyer's remorse" with him. It's hard to tell how much further in debt he would have taken this country with more wars, and tax breaks for his rich buddies.

    July 27, 2014 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  15. sam118

    Nit-Mitt over Obama - not a chance! Actually, the current GOP prospects won't have a chance against Hillary or even PeeWee Herman!

    July 27, 2014 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  16. Chuk

    Nonsense! How many decisions that has consequences has Romney made since the election. Every candidate is "perfect" just before they take office. Once they cross the line from theory to practice, they lose their "perfection".

    July 27, 2014 07:40 pm at 7:40 pm |
  17. john

    What a pointless exercise in futility Obama isnt running for any office in the future, get over it.

    July 27, 2014 07:40 pm at 7:40 pm |
  18. Saddlin Up

    All this proves is that liberals haven't learned their lesson.

    July 27, 2014 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  19. Lars

    Didn't "the Polls" show Romney besting President Obama the night of the last 2012 presidential election?

    What do "Political Polls" matching President Obama against Mitt Romney matter anyway, CNN...since neither will be running in the upcoming 2016 presidential election.

    July 27, 2014 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  20. Steve

    Liberals are afraid and they keep on hoping in empty promises. Come Fall 2014 and in 2016 Liberals will fall

    July 27, 2014 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  21. kzooresident

    A poll showing Romney beating Obama with (assuming) the same participants preferring Clinton over Romney is suspect at best.

    July 27, 2014 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  22. Jim

    Obama hasn't created millions of jobs. People quit looking for work and fell off the rolls. The Market is propped up by Federal $$$$$ which is taxpayer money. And then theres gas. Its higher than when Obama took office along with food prices and power bills. More people on EBT than ever in this country. Doesn't look like things are so rosey in Obama Land unless your one on the dole and getting the freebies. Then its a biscuit train on gravy wheels. But if have to work for a living then its been a h##lahish 6 years.;

    July 27, 2014 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  23. R Owen

    A ridicules poll and irrelevant.

    July 27, 2014 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  24. Patriot

    A lot of people in the GOP are sore at Rick Santorum, because they think his persistent attempts to beat Romney in 2012 weakened Romney for the general election. But the truth is, Rick Santorum represents the core beliefs and sentiments of the Republican Party, especially when compared to Romney who essentially invented Obamacare.

    July 27, 2014 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  25. Grumpster

    This just goes to show that the majority of people are simply ignorant beyond comprehension. CNN is really becoming like Fox News just reporting more and more idiocy.

    July 27, 2014 08:08 pm at 8:08 pm |
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