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“People have a right to be grouchy,” Obama adviser David Axelrod said on CNN’s State of the Union when asked about Obama’s sagging approval rating, which is now just below 50 percent.

“There’s ten percent unemployment,” the top presidential adviser also pointed out. “These are tough times.”

“We took over in January in the midst of an unprecedented economic crisis, fiscal crisis, financial crisis, two wars,” Obama also told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. “The president has had to make a lot of tough decisions to try and rescue our economy from collapse, to move this country forward and we are going to reap the benefits of that.”

Although Axelrod acknowledged that Obama’s approval ratings had fallen considerably during his first year in office, Axelrod also said that the White House was not focused on polling data.
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Washington (CNN) – Polls show a rising anti-Washington sentiment, less-than-stellar approval ratings for a newly-elected Democratic president, and even worse for Congress - just as they did the last time Democrats lost control of the House and Senate – but there's no déjà vu among party leaders, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said Thursday: "This is not going to be 1994 all over again."

A spate of recent retirements among Democrats representing potential swing districts – including John Tanner of Tennessee, Dennis Moore of Kansas, Brian Baird of Washington and Bart Gordon of Tennessee – have also given political observers some 1994 flashbacks. But Van Hollen denied the moves signaled a trend. "We absolutely do not expect a large surge (in retirements) on the order of 1994," he said.

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Republicans argue that retiring House Democrats are avoiding tough re-election bids next year.

Washington (CNN) – House Democrats are pushing back against GOP claims that Rep. Brian Baird's decision to not seek re-election signals that the party in power is in store for a drubbing in 2010.

With his announcement Wednesday, Baird, a six-term Congressman from Washington state, became the third Democrat this year to announce plans to retire. Six other House Democrats are leaving at the close of the 111th Congress to seek another office.

The National Republican Congressional Committee heralded Baird's decision as a sign that "Democrat incumbents are feeling the ground shaking underneath them" as they head into the next cycle.

Not so fast, argues Ryan Rudominer of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Rudominer pointed out that at this time in 2007, roughly one year before the GOP took a beating for the second straight election cycle, 15 House Republicans had announced their retirement. Three more Republicans had chosen to leave their seats in pursuit of higher office.

"All year long, national Republicans have predicted a tidal wave of Democratic retirements and just like they falsely predicted winning last month in a seat that had been Republican since the Civil War, we haven't seen anything like the number of Republican retirements at this point last cycle," Rudominer said in an e-mail.

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CNN poll: GOP has erased party popularity gap in Congress

Washington (CNN) – Eleven months before crucial midterm elections, a national poll indicates that the public is divided over whether the country would be better off with Democrats or Republicans controlling Congress.

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday, 40 percent of people questioned say the U.S. would be better off if Democrats ran Congress while 39 percent feel things would be better if Republicans took charge on Capitol Hill. The 1-point margin is a statistical tie.

Full results (pdf)

Support for Democrats is down from a 10-point advantage in August and a 25-point margin in January.

"As the debate over health care continues, the Democrats may have lost the competitive advantage that they enjoyed earlier this year," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Since August, the number who support Democratic control of Congress has fallen farthest in the Northeast and the Pacific Rim - two regions that have been Democratic strongholds for many years."

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Washington (CNN) - Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to leave the Republican Party in April handed President Obama a key vote in the Senate, and Specter was rewarded by quickly being endorsed by the president and Democratic leaders in his bid for re-election next year.

But not every Democrat got in line behind Obama.

In Kentucky, GOP leaders spent the first half of the year hoping that Sen. Jim Bunning would retire, thereby allowing a more popular Republican to run and giving the GOP a better chance to hold onto the seat.

For months, Bunning refused to say he was retiring, but by midsummer the Hall of Fame baseball pitcher relented and provided Republican leaders an opening to rally around the candidacy of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

But not every Republican got in line behind the GOP establishment.

Primaries are complicating matters for Democratic and Republican Senate leaders, who would prefer to focus all of their attention on the 2010 general election, not internal battles for party nominations. Republicans have more primaries to sort out than Democrats next year, but Democrats have their own set of issues to address in the midterm elections.

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Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is the chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

Washington (CNN) – In the early days of his campaign for governor in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell hired veteran GOP pollster Glen Bolger to take the pulse of the state's notoriously independent-minded voters.

Bolger asked voters if they'd rather elect of governor who would work with President Obama to implement his plans for the economy, or a governor who would serve as a check on Democrats in Washington.

Fifty-five percent wanted a governor who planned to stand up the president, Bolger discovered, while just 35 percent desired someone who would help the White House. It wasn't what he'd expected to find.

"I was kind surprised by that result, because I thought people would say that's not really a factor in the governor's race," Bolger said, noting that McDonnell won the race by a similar margin. "But people saw it as almost like Democrats are oversteering too much in one direction, and they wanted correction."

After dismal election cycles in 2006 and 2008, Republicans are hoping that signs of discomfort with President Obama's agenda will translate into big gains in governor's mansions around the country next November. They point to off-year wins this month in Virginia and New Jersey as early proof that a backlash against Democratic overreach in Washington is underway.

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A new poll suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in next year's midterm elections.

Washington (CNN) - When it comes to Congress, a 'throw the bums out' attitude appears to be alive and well.

According to a new Pew Research Center poll, 52 percent of registered voters would like to see their own member of the House of Representatives re-elected next year, while just over one in three say that most members of Congress should be returned to office. Both numbers come close to the all-time lows seen just prior to the 1994 election, when the Republicans won control of Congress, and the 2006 contest, when the Democrats returned to power in both chambers.

The survey indicates that only 42 percent of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected in 2010, and just one in four independents think most members of Congress should be returned to office.

The poll suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats. Fifty-eight percent of people who say they plan to vote for Republican in next year's elections say they are very enthusiastic about voting. That's 16 points higher than the 42 percent of people of plan to vote for a Democrat who describe themselves as enthusiastic.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released last week also indicated that Republicans are more energized right now than Democrats.

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A new poll suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in next year's midterm elections.

Washington (CNN) - When it comes to Congress, a 'throw the bums out' attitude appears to be alive and well.

According to a new Pew Research Center poll, 52 percent of registered voters would like to see their own member of the House of Representatives re-elected next year, while just over one in three say that most members of Congress should be returned to office. Both numbers come close to the all-time lows seen just prior to the 1994 election, when the Republicans won control of Congress, and the 2006 contest, when the Democrats returned to power in both chambers.

The survey indicates that only 42 percent of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected in 2010, and just one in four independents think most members of Congress should be returned to office.

The poll suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats. Fifty-eight percent of people who say they plan to vote for Republican in next year's elections say they are very enthusiastic about voting. That's 16 points higher than the 42 percent of people of plan to vote for a Democrat who describe themselves as enthusiastic.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released last week also indicated that Republicans are more energized right now than Democrats.
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(CNN) - CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley said that Tuesday night's Republican victories in Virginia should be looked at as a political poll.

"I think the take-away is that you have to look at tonight as a poll. We always say a poll is a snapshot in time," she said. "This is a snapshot in time. It does tell Barack Obama something."

Crowley added, "However, a lot can happen between now and 2010. To extrapolate too much and superimpose this over what's going to happen in 2010 is a mistake."

TOPICS: 2010 midterms, Congress, Democrats, Republicans

Full results (pdf)

DeMint is running for a second term in 2010.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint's sharp attacks on President Obama - including his memorable line that conservatives can "break" the president by blocking health care reform - have put him in the Democratic crosshairs.

Now national Democrats think they've found the candidate with the best shot at unseating the first term Republican: Chad McGowan, a 38-year-old trial lawyer from conservative York County who officially announced his candidacy on Monday.

Said one Democratic leadership aide in Washington: "Is DeMint more vulnerable than [Richard] Burr or David [Vitter]? Probably not. But McGowan is a self-funder and from the right part of the state. He could give a Republican a run for his money."

McGowan said in an interview with CNN that South Carolina "can do better" than DeMint, but he refrained from any outright attacks against the Republican on the day he jumped in the race. "I don't want to get into bashing any sitting senators at this point," he said. "These races are marathons. I'll just try to keep it positive for now."

DeMint has nearly $3 million in the bank for his campaign, not to mention a loyal network of conservative activists in South Carolina and nationwide willing to support him. McGowan wouldn't say if he plans to contribute his own money to pay for the campaign, but promised to raise "whatever it takes" to win. The last competitive statewide campaign in South Carolina - the 2002 governor's race between Mark Sanford and Jim Hodges - cost more than $12 million.

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Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway announced Thursday his campaign for Senate raise over $2 million.

WASHINGTON (CNN)– Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway announced Thursday that his campaign has raised more than $2 million so far this year for his U.S. Senate bid.

Conway is one of four Democratic candidates and five Republican candidates vying to fill Republican Sen. Jim Bunning's seat when he retires in 2010.

In a statement announcing their numbers, Conway's campaign claimed a two-to-one money advantage over their main Democratic primary opponent - Kentucky Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo - but did not provide a breakdown of how much their campaign raised during the most recent fundraising period.

"Mongiardo still has not raised in nine months what the Conway campaign collected in the first nine weeks," the statement read.

According to Mongiardo's team, their campaign has raised $1.25 million so far and just concluded their "best" quarter, raising $515,000 over the last three months.

"We have outraised Jack Conway prior to this quarter, and we have outraised him in Kentucky," Mongiardo's spokesman Kim Geveden told CNN, claiming the majority of Conway's donors are from out of state.

"Daniel Mongiardo's campaign of Kentuckians, by Kentuckians and for Kentuckians stands in sharp contrast to Jack Conway's campaign for and by the silver spoon crowd in New York and Hollywood," Geveden added in an e-mail. He noted that Conway's announcement is "vague" because it does not provide details of how much the campaign raised in the third quarter.

Conway and Mongiardo are facing off against law student Darlene Fitzgerald Price and businessman Maurice Sweeney in the Democratic primary.

UPDATE: Conway campaign manager Charles Halloran said Conway has raised 80 percent of his money - over $1.5 million - from donors inside Kentucky. Halloran also pointed out that Conway has over $1.6 million on hand compared to Mongiardo's $751,000.

Foley highlights vicious cycle in first TV ad (photo credit: www.tomfoley2010.com).

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Promising to get the "economy moving again," Connecticut Republican Senate hopeful Tom Foley released his first television ad Wednesday.

The ad entitled "Cycle", a referrence to what Foley calls a "vicious cycle" of contributions and political favors flowing between special interest groups and politicians, says longtime Connecticut Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd is "one of the worst offenders."

Suggesting that Connecticut does not need another career politician, in the 30-second spot, Foley highlights his 25 years as a businessman.

The Foley campaign would not release details about the amount of ad dollars supporting "Cycle," but the campaign tells CNN the new ad is running statewide.

Foley, the former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland, is one of 7 Republican candidates vying for Dodd's seat.

The Connecticut primary will take place August 10.

Menendez: GOP's August gains will translate to 2010 losses.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A Senate Democratic leader acknowledged Tuesday his party failed to move quickly enough to counter Republican critics over the summer, but predicted that GOP gains based on town hall pushback to President Obama's health care plan would cost Republicans at the polls next November.

"To be honest, we needed to be more aggressive in August," New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told reporters. "We saw Republicans led by extremists in their party mobilize and make a lot of noise. There's no question some momentum was lost during that period of time.

"But the Republican strategy is for the president and the Congress is to be defeated in policy... It may seem like a strategy, but it is a strategy that's going to backfire on them" in the long term, he predicted.

Menendez is responsible for the Senate Democratic campaign operation and his job has been complicated by primary battles in Colorado, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.

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Danny Tarkanian, pictured in this 1998 file photo with his father in the background, is currently the frontrunner in a crowded GOP field in Nevada's 2010 Senate race.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Danny Tarkanian sailed into Washington this week on a wave of polling data that indicates he - and other Republican Senate prospects - could defeat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid next year.

Reid is a top target for national Republicans in 2010 - but the GOP faces a big problem: it has not settled on a candidate to challenge the Democratic leader. The GOP's best prospect, Rep. Dean Heller, took a pass on the race.

Now, Tarkanian is one of several Republicans who have either declared their candidacies or are eyeing a challenge to Reid in 2010. As the son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, the younger Tarkanian has immediate name recognition in the state - and is the frontrunner, at least for now, in a crowded GOP primary field.

The real estate entrepreneur described himself as a "fiscal and social conservative" during a visit to CNN Wednesday, painting Reid as out of touch with Nevada voters. He echoed national Republicans on ideas to reduce the cost of health care, such as tort reform and insurance portability; said the way to revive the economy is to invest in the private sector; and said that the United States needs to stay in Afghanistan to finish the job.

While Tarkanian did not embrace disgraced Sen. John Ensign and embattled Gov. Jim Gibbons, he stated that it would not be right to "turn your back" or "shun" the two highest-ranking Republicans in the state. But, he said, both are "separate from my race."
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WASHINGTON (CNN) – Republican Rep. Mark Kirk may make his run for the Senate in 2010 official next week.

His office said Wednesday that the congressman would announce a "statewide candidacy" Monday morning at a suburb outside Chicago.

Kirk has reportedly been seriously weighing a bid for the seat currently filled by embattled Sen. Roland Burris, who announced on Friday that he would not run for election. Burris was appointed by former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who was arrested on corruption charges that he tried to sell President Obama's Senate seat.

The state Republican Party chairman, Andy McKenna, was also considering running for the Senate seat, but announced Monday that would "not oppose" Kirk if the congressman decided to run, as GOP officials have hoped.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Rep. Jim Gerlach, a four-term Republican from Pennsylvania, announced Tuesday that he will give up his congressional seat and run for governor in 2010.

Gerlach is the first Republican to formally jump into the race, but former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett have also formed exploratory committees. The current governor, Democrat Ed Rendell, is term-limited and cannot run again.

"I have been on the front lines for years fighting for smaller government and greater efficiency in Harrisburg and Washington," Gerlach said in a statement released Tuesday. "Our next Governor must employ those values and put them to work in Harrisburg, and make Pennsylvania a competitive place to do business so we can create jobs and put families back to work. It's that simple."

Gerlach said he has "secured" over $1 million in financial commitments and raised more than $200,000 in his bid to become governor.

"I did not want to wait any longer to make this announcement," Gerlach said in the statement. "I know our team will need plenty of time to formalize our support and organize the campaign's infrastructure. In addition, I know full well how competitive a 2010 open seat congressional race will become, and I owe it to our Party's candidates to ensure they have enough time to raise the money and support to be successful."

With Gerlach leaving his seat, GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder announced his decision to throw his hat into the ring to replace the incumbent in the state's 6th congressional district. Democrat Doug Pike, who is expected to have a significant cash advantage to start, is considered to have the edge heading into the race in this increasingly Democratic district.

Sen. Dodd's new ad focuses on his role in getting recent credit card reform legislation passed.

(CNN) - Nearly 18 months before voters head to the polls, Sen. Chris Dodd is out with his first campaign ad.

The 30-second television spot, entitled "Years," relies heavily on the image and voice of President Barack Obama.

The ad opens with an image of Obama from last week when he signed credit card reform legislation. Roughly half of the ad also features a recording of the president discussing the recently enacted bill and Dodd's role in getting the legislation passed.

"I want to give a special shout-out to Chris Dodd who has been a relentless fighter to get this done," the president says in the ad as an image of Obama, Dodd, and several other Members of Congress appears on screen.

The ad then details aspects of the bill designed to protect consumers in their use of credit cards.

The ad begins airing Friday on broadcast and cable outlets across much of Connecticut, according to Dodd's campaign manager Jay Howser. The spot will run for one week.
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WASHINGTON (CNN) - Chris Kennedy, the son of the late Robert F. Kennedy, is taking steps to run for Senate and could announce his candidacy as early as next week, a source close to the Kennedy family told CNN Wednesday.

"He is building an organization and telling family and friends that he is in fact going to be a candidate for the Senate from Illinois," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity this person was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

A spokeswoman for Chris Kennedy, an Illinois businessman, would not go as far as to say he is in the race, but acknowledged that he is "seriously considering" a Senate bid.

"He has conducted polling which indicates a strong interest," said Kasey Madden, Kennedy's spokeswoman. "But there is no timeline for a decision or an announcement."

But a second source, an Illinois Democrat also speaking on the condition of anonymity, told CNN that Kennedy's political allies are telling state Democrats that he will indeed seek the Democratic nomination for the seat once held by President Obama.
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