October 15, 2008
Posted: 05:01 PM ET
CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map — and chip away at McCain's territory — thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls — including our own — now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Barack Obama • CNN's Electoral Map • John McCain


September 15, 2008
Posted: 12:45 PM ET

From
CNN now considers Minnesota a tossup state.
CNN now considers Minnesota a tossup state.

(CNN) — As evidence of a tightening presidential race mounts, CNN is altering its Electoral Map, shifting Minnesota and its ten electoral votes from leaning towards Barack Obama to a toss up state.

With the shift of Minnesota, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

A CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted two weeks ago had Obama up 12 points over McCain in Minnesota. But a Minneapolis-St.Paul Star Tribune poll released Sunday suggests the race is tied, with each candidate getting the support of 45 percent of Minnesota voters questioned in the survey. The poll was conducted entirely after the end of the Republican National Convention, which was held in St. Paul, Minnesota.

"Events are moving so quickly in the presidential race that polls taken before the Republican convention probably aren't accurate reflections of what is going on in swing states today," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "The pace of the campaign means that we may see more shifts, in either direction, in states like Minnesota."

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

Filed under: Barack Obama • CNN's Electoral Map • John McCain • Minnesota


September 3, 2008
Posted: 05:50 PM ET

From
CNN

Check out CNN's electoral map.

ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Barack Obama may be inching closer to the magic number of 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House, according to the most recent update to CNN’s electoral map.

Based in part on newly released public opinion surveys, CNN has now re-classified the states of Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Iowa (7 electoral votes) as states leaning in favor of Obama. Both states were previously categorized as toss-ups. If the election were held today, CNN currently projects that Obama would carry 19 states and the District of Columbia, for a combined total of 243 electoral votes. McCain would carry 23 states worth a combined total of 189 electoral votes.

Eight states worth a combined 106 electoral votes remain in CNN’s tossup column.

Related: Poll measures race in three key states

“Iowa and Minnesota look good for Obama at this point in time. He is winning whites with no college degree in Iowa and splitting them evenly with John McCain in Minnesota," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But today's polls don't reflect any boost McCain might get from his convention, because nearly all the interviews were done before the festivities started in St. Paul. This could be Obama’s high-water mark in those states.”

Four years ago, George W. Bush carried Iowa by less than one percentage point; John Kerry won Minnesota by less than four points. The last Republican to carry Minnesota in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972.

Obama won both the Iowa and the Minnesota Democratic caucuses this year. McCain finished fourth in Iowa’s GOP caucuses and second in Minnesota’s GOP caucuses.

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists.

Filed under: Barack Obama • CNN's Electoral Map • John McCain • Popular Posts


July 24, 2008
Posted: 01:59 PM ET
CNN's new electoral map.
CNN's new electoral map.

(CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.

Filed under: Barack Obama • CNN's Electoral Map • John McCain



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