September 25th, 2008
03:55 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: Obama up 4 points

Sen. Obama is ahead by four points in Thursday's CNN poll of polls.
Sen. Obama is ahead by four points in Thursday's CNN poll of polls.

(CNN) – As the fate of the first head-to-head debate between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain remains uncertain, CNN’s latest poll of polls shows the Democratic nominee with a 4 point advantage over his Republican rival. Obama has the support of 47 percent of voters to McCain's 43 percent, with and 10 percent unsure about their choice for president. In CNN’s previous poll of polls, released Wednesday night, Obama was ahead by 5 points – 49 percent versus 44 percent.

“Since the start of the financial crisis, Sen. Obama has held a small but clear edge in the horserace,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Sen. McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign in the midst of this crisis can be seen as an attempt to regain the upper hand on the economy — an issue which so far continues to work to Obama’s advantage. The overwhelming majority of Americans are more concerned with the state of the economy than with any other issue.”

Thursday’s national general election poll of polls is comprised of the following four surveys: Marist (September 22-23), Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 22-23), Gallup (September 22-24), and Diageo/Hotline (September 22-24). CNN’s poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

September 17th, 2008
02:30 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN POLL OF POLLS: Obama ahead by a single point

Sens. McCain and Obama put politics aside recently to come together and observe the 7th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks at Ground Zero.
Sens. McCain and Obama put politics aside recently to come together and observe the 7th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks at Ground Zero.

(CNN) – The race for the White House remains virtually neck-and-neck, according to CNN’s latest poll of polls.

For the first time since September 7, Sen. Barack Obama is ahead of Sen. John McCain in CNN’s national poll of polls. Obama has the support of 46 percent of registered voters compared to 45 percent for McCain, while nine percent are unsure about their choice for president. In Tuesday’s CNN poll of polls, the two men were tied at 46 percent each.

“The presidential race has been a virtual dead heat since the end of the conventions,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “At the moment, the McCain and Obama campaigns’ advertising strategies appear to be cancelling each other out. What we can’t yet measure, however, is the impact of the crisis on Wall Street. Economic issues favor Obama, but voters tend to support McCain more in terms of overall leadership and crisis management. The bottom line is that, with 48 days to go, this race is a toss-up.”

Wednesday’s poll of polls is comprised of the following four national general election surveys: IPSOS-McClatchy (September 11-15), Gallup (September 14-16), Diageo/Hotline (September 14-16), and American Research Group (September 13-15). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

September 13th, 2008
09:16 AM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: McCain holds one point lead over Obama

Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by one points in Saturday's CNN poll of polls.
Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by one points in Saturday's CNN poll of polls.

(CNN) - Saturday’s CNN national Poll of Polls - which includes the new Newsweek survey - shows McCain leading Obama by one point (46 to 45 percent). Friday’s Poll of Polls showed McCain leading Obama by two points (46 to 44 percent).

The national general election "Poll of Polls" consists of four surveys: Newsweek (September 10-11), Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 8-9), Gallup (September 9-11), and Diageo/Hotline (September 9-11). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

September 12th, 2008
04:15 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: McCain ahead by two points

Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by two points in Friday's CNN poll of polls.
Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by two points in Friday's CNN poll of polls.

(CNN) – Sen. John McCain continues to have a slight advantage over rival Sen. Barack Obama in the latest CNN poll of polls released Friday afternoon. McCain is now ahead by 2 percentage points – 46 percent to Obama’s 44 percent - with 10 percent unsure about their choice for president. In Thursday’s CNN poll of polls, McCain was ahead by one point – 46 percent to 45 percent.

“The race for the White House has essentially been a dead heat since the Republican Convention,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Barring something dramatic and unexpected, the horserace numbers are not likely to change very much at least until the debates. As we inch closer to Election Day, the pool of truly undecided voters continues to shrink.”

Friday’s CNN poll of polls is comprised of the following three surveys: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 8-9), Gallup (September 9-11), and Diageo/Hotline (September 9-11). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

September 10th, 2008
03:55 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: McCain ahead by one point

Sens. Obama and McCain are separated by a margin of just one point in Wednesday's CNN poll of polls.
Sens. Obama and McCain are separated by a margin of just one point in Wednesday's CNN poll of polls.

(CNN) – Sen. John McCain continues to hold onto a slim advantage in CNN’s latest poll of polls.

In Wednesday’s Poll of polls, McCain’s margin over Obama is one point, with McCain at 46 percent, Obama at 45 percent and 9 percent unsure about their choice for president.

In Tuesday’s poll of polls, the two rivals were also separated by just one point, with McCain at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent.

"Why is the race so close? The GOP convention energized the Republican base - but it also helped solidify Democratic opposition to the GOP ticket,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. “Enthusiasm grew among Democrats and Republicans after the Republican convention. Also, the favorable ratings for Obama and McCain are almost identical - and virtually unchanged from where they were in mid-August, before either party's convention began."

Wednesday’s poll of polls is composed of the following five national general election surveys: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (September 8-9), NBC/Wall Street Journal (September 6-8), American Research Group (September 6-8), Gallup (September 7-9), and Diageo/Hotline (September 7-9).

The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

September 8th, 2008
05:24 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll of polls: McCain continues to move ahead

A New CNN Poll of polls show McCain ahead.
A New CNN Poll of polls show McCain ahead.

(CNN) – John McCain’s edge is growing in the latest CNN Poll of polls - the first comprised of surveys conducted entirely after the Republican convention.

After averaging in new survey results from CBS, ABC/Washington Post, and Gallup, CNN’s national Poll of polls now shows McCain leading Obama by 2 points, 47 to 45 percent. The CNN Poll of polls released earlier Monday showed McCain ahead of Obama by 1 point, 47 to 46 percent. Eight percent are undecided.

“John McCain is riding high after an extremely successful Republican Convention,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “For the first time all year, McCain is ahead of Obama in the Poll of Polls. The GOP base is energized. The so-called ‘convention bounce’ is alive and well, and has resulted in an overall swing of seven percentage points in McCain’s favor since the Republicans met in St. Paul on September 1. This historic race for the White House will now likely remain tight all the way to Election Day.”

The national general election "Poll of Polls" consists of five surveys: CNN (September 5-7), ABC/Washington Post (September 5-7), CBS (September 5-7), Gallup (September 5-7), and Diageo/Hotline (September 5-7). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

September 7th, 2008
06:03 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: Obama's lead shrinks to just one point

Sens. McCain and Obama appeared briefly on stage together last month during a forum moderated by Pastor Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church in California.
Sens. McCain and Obama appeared briefly on stage together last month during a forum moderated by Pastor Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church in California.

(CNN) - Sen. Barack Obama’s lead in national polls has shrunk to one point, according to CNN’s latest “poll of polls.”

Sunday’s poll of polls shows Obama leading John McCain 44 to 43 percent.

Obama held a three-point lead in Saturday’s poll of polls. The senator from Illinois was leading McCain 45-42 percent.

"All of the surveys included in our national polling average were conducted at least in part during the Republican Convention," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "It's still too early to know exactly how much of a bounce McCain has received. That said, the daily tracking numbers indicate that the [Sarah] Palin pick has clearly energized the GOP's base. We have an extremely tight race for the White House on our hands."

CNN’s most recent poll of polls consists of three surveys: CBS (September 1-3), Gallup (September 4-6), and Diageo/Hotline (September 2-4). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

The Republican convention took place last week in St. Paul, Minnesota. Democrats held their convention during the last week of August in Denver, Colorado.

September 2nd, 2008
05:07 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls update: Obama ahead by 6

A CNN poll of polls shows Obama up.
A CNN poll of polls shows Obama up.

(CNN) - Barack Obama holds a six point lead over John McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls.

The poll of polls, an average of five recent national surveys, shows the Illinois senator at 49 percent among registered voters nationwide with McCain at 43 percent.

“When you average the latest national polls, Obama appears to be slowly expanding his lead. He was ahead by four points before the Democratic Convention, and now he’s up by six,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.

“That said, we’ve seen swings of a point or two on a regular basis over the couple of months. The jury is still out on whether Obama will benefit from any sustained convention bounce. We’re also still waiting to see what — if any — impact the Palin pick and the Republican Convention will have on the race.”


Filed under: CNN Poll of polls
September 1st, 2008
04:05 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN Poll of polls: Obama holds slim lead

ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Roughly nine weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll of polls shows Barack Obama holding a five point lead over John McCain. Only four days after Obama’s acceptance speech and three days after McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is now ahead of McCain, 49 to 44 percent.

CNN’s previous poll of polls, released August 24, showed Obama leading McCain by four points, 46 to 42 percent.

“Any bounce Obama might have received out of his party’s convention appears to have largely negated by McCain’s surprise selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate,” said CNN Political Editor Mark Preston. “This race has been close all along, and is unlikely to change.”
The three polls included in CNN’s latest national survey average were conducted by CBS, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, and Gallup. They were each conducted from August 29 to 31. The poll of polls does not have a margin of error.

August 20th, 2008
06:15 PM ET
6 years ago

Poll of polls: Obama's once-comfortable lead gone

Obama's lead is down to 1 point over McCain.
Obama's lead is down to 1 point over McCain.

(CNN) - For Barack Obama, the Democratic convention and the bump in the polls that is expected to follow couldn't come soon enough.

According to a new CNN poll of polls, the Illinois senator's once-comfortable lead over McCain is down to only 1 point nationwide - potentially troubling news for Obama as he gets set to accept his party's nomination in Denver.

Obama now leads McCain 45 percent to 44 percent, down from a 3-point margin in a CNN poll of polls yesterday and down from an 8-point lead in mid July.

The seemingly rapid drop in the polls could be due to the reemergence of national security issues following the crisis in Georgia, giving McCain an anvil to hammer away at Obama's inexperience. When Russian troops invaded Georgia two weeks ago, McCain vigorously denounced the action and warned of consequences. Obama's reaction was more measured, and potential voters noticed, CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider said.

"Which candidate do voters believe is better qualified to deal with Russia? McCain by better than 2-1," Schneider said. "More experience in military matters and foreign affairs."

CNN Election Center: Check out the latest polls

In a year when the Republican brand is reeling, CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib says the Obama campaign officials should be concerned their lead appears to have become so tenuous.

“This ought to be a landslide Democratic year, but right now the Obama campaign is at risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory," Silverleib said. "They’ve been slow to respond as McCain has successfully raised a series of questions about Obama’s basic fitness for the presidency."

"The pressure is mounting for Obama to regain the initiative as he heads to Denver for what is certain to be one of the most critical weeks of his campaign

But can the Democratic presidential candidate rely on the post-convention bounce? Maybe. From 1976 to 2004 every major party nominee has gained ground - 8 points on average - in polls taken immediately after the convention. But in the last presidential cycle, neither President Bush nor Sen. John Kerry received any bounce from either of their conventions.

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