(CNN) – John McCain’s edge is growing in the latest CNN Poll of polls - the first comprised of surveys conducted entirely after the Republican convention.
After averaging in new survey results from CBS, ABC/Washington Post, and Gallup, CNN’s national Poll of polls now shows McCain leading Obama by 2 points, 47 to 45 percent. The CNN Poll of polls released earlier Monday showed McCain ahead of Obama by 1 point, 47 to 46 percent. Eight percent are undecided.
“John McCain is riding high after an extremely successful Republican Convention,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “For the first time all year, McCain is ahead of Obama in the Poll of Polls. The GOP base is energized. The so-called ‘convention bounce’ is alive and well, and has resulted in an overall swing of seven percentage points in McCain’s favor since the Republicans met in St. Paul on September 1. This historic race for the White House will now likely remain tight all the way to Election Day.”
The national general election "Poll of Polls" consists of five surveys: CNN (September 5-7), ABC/Washington Post (September 5-7), CBS (September 5-7), Gallup (September 5-7), and Diageo/Hotline (September 5-7). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.
(CNN) - Sen. Barack Obama’s lead in national polls has shrunk to one point, according to CNN’s latest “poll of polls.”
Sunday’s poll of polls shows Obama leading John McCain 44 to 43 percent.
Obama held a three-point lead in Saturday’s poll of polls. The senator from Illinois was leading McCain 45-42 percent.
"All of the surveys included in our national polling average were conducted at least in part during the Republican Convention," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "It's still too early to know exactly how much of a bounce McCain has received. That said, the daily tracking numbers indicate that the [Sarah] Palin pick has clearly energized the GOP's base. We have an extremely tight race for the White House on our hands."
CNN’s most recent poll of polls consists of three surveys: CBS (September 1-3), Gallup (September 4-6), and Diageo/Hotline (September 2-4). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.
The Republican convention took place last week in St. Paul, Minnesota. Democrats held their convention during the last week of August in Denver, Colorado.
(CNN) - Barack Obama holds a six point lead over John McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls.
The poll of polls, an average of five recent national surveys, shows the Illinois senator at 49 percent among registered voters nationwide with McCain at 43 percent.
“When you average the latest national polls, Obama appears to be slowly expanding his lead. He was ahead by four points before the Democratic Convention, and now he’s up by six,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.
“That said, we’ve seen swings of a point or two on a regular basis over the couple of months. The jury is still out on whether Obama will benefit from any sustained convention bounce. We’re also still waiting to see what — if any — impact the Palin pick and the Republican Convention will have on the race.”
ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Roughly nine weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll of polls shows Barack Obama holding a five point lead over John McCain. Only four days after Obama’s acceptance speech and three days after McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is now ahead of McCain, 49 to 44 percent.
CNN’s previous poll of polls, released August 24, showed Obama leading McCain by four points, 46 to 42 percent.
“Any bounce Obama might have received out of his party’s convention appears to have largely negated by McCain’s surprise selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate,” said CNN Political Editor Mark Preston. “This race has been close all along, and is unlikely to change.”
The three polls included in CNN’s latest national survey average were conducted by CBS, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, and Gallup. They were each conducted from August 29 to 31. The poll of polls does not have a margin of error.
(CNN) - For Barack Obama, the Democratic convention and the bump in the polls that is expected to follow couldn't come soon enough.
According to a new CNN poll of polls, the Illinois senator's once-comfortable lead over McCain is down to only 1 point nationwide - potentially troubling news for Obama as he gets set to accept his party's nomination in Denver.
Obama now leads McCain 45 percent to 44 percent, down from a 3-point margin in a CNN poll of polls yesterday and down from an 8-point lead in mid July.
The seemingly rapid drop in the polls could be due to the reemergence of national security issues following the crisis in Georgia, giving McCain an anvil to hammer away at Obama's inexperience. When Russian troops invaded Georgia two weeks ago, McCain vigorously denounced the action and warned of consequences. Obama's reaction was more measured, and potential voters noticed, CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider said.
"Which candidate do voters believe is better qualified to deal with Russia? McCain by better than 2-1," Schneider said. "More experience in military matters and foreign affairs."
CNN Election Center: Check out the latest polls
In a year when the Republican brand is reeling, CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib says the Obama campaign officials should be concerned their lead appears to have become so tenuous.
“This ought to be a landslide Democratic year, but right now the Obama campaign is at risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory," Silverleib said. "They’ve been slow to respond as McCain has successfully raised a series of questions about Obama’s basic fitness for the presidency."
"The pressure is mounting for Obama to regain the initiative as he heads to Denver for what is certain to be one of the most critical weeks of his campaign
But can the Democratic presidential candidate rely on the post-convention bounce? Maybe. From 1976 to 2004 every major party nominee has gained ground - 8 points on average - in polls taken immediately after the convention. But in the last presidential cycle, neither President Bush nor Sen. John Kerry received any bounce from either of their conventions.
(CNN) - In what could be an ominous sign for Barack Obama just days before he is formally named the Democratic presidential nominee, a new CNN poll of polls out Tuesday shows the Illinois senator's lead over John McCain has been cut in half in recent days.
According to CNN's average of several recent national surveys, Obama's lead is now a slim 3 points over the Arizona senator, 46-43 percent - half of his advantage in a CNN poll of polls one week ago, and down from a high of 8 points in mid-July.
Election Center: Check out CNN's electoral map
The latest poll results come amid increased attacks from McCain on Obama's readiness to be commander-in-chief and the re-emergence of national security worries among voters in the wake of the Georgia crisis.
“Over the last week, we’ve seen Sen. Obama’s lead in the poll of polls cut in half,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “This change was likely driven by a renewed focus on foreign policy after Russia’s invasion of Georgia, as well as by Sen. McCain’s willingness to launch more aggressive attacks against Obama on issues such as off-shore drilling."
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out Tuesday evening was the latest national survey to indicate Obama's lead is dwindling, putting the Illinois senator ahead of McCain by only 2 points, well within the poll's margin of error. The CNN Poll of polls also includes new surveys from Quinnipiac and Gallup.
But the recent downturn in the polls for Obama may not last - the Democratic White House hopeful is headed for a week of what is likely to be overwhelmingly postive coverage as he names his running mate and officially accepts his party's presidential nomination.
"The big question now is whether Obama can successfully regain control of the campaign agenda as we head into the Democratic convention," Silverleib also said.