June 3rd, 2008
07:30 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: What will Clinton’s voters do in November?

  It is still not clear whether Clinton supporters are likely to throw their support to Obama.
It is still not clear whether Clinton supporters are likely to throw their support to Obama.

(CNN) - Will angry Hillary Clinton supporters take their disappointment out at the polls this November by voting for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain over Barack Obama, or staying home altogether?

Roughly three out of five Clinton’s South Dakota supporters said they’d vote for Obama this fall, in early exit polls. Sixteen percent said they’d vote for McCain; roughly the same number, 17 percent, said they’d stay home altogether.

Among all Democratic primary voters in South Dakota, 55 percent said the party had been energized by the long primary season; 39 percent said it had had the opposite effect.

The tough primary slog may have taken a toll on party unity – is it temporary, or will it cost Democrats dearly this fall? Time will tell.

UPDATE: One more quick note: Clinton’s Montana voters were even more leery of Obama - one in four said they’d vote for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain this fall. And just over half in both states said they were not pleased with the party’s evident presidential pick.

Obama has his work cut out for him – and the level of Hillary Clinton’s support for him will be the big variable in this election-year equation.

June 3rd, 2008
06:51 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Split on issue priorities shows up at the polls

(CNN) - In South Dakota, domestic-minded Democratic primary voters had a different pick than their foreign-policy focused peers.

Voters who said their top concern was the state of the nation’s economy voted for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, 58 to 42 percent. But those who said the war in Iraq was their No. 1 concern supported Obama over Clinton by an even wider margin: 61-39 percent.

Obama’s early opposition to the Iraq war has made him the top pick for voters most worried about that conflict – but are international concerns taking a back seat to economic woes?

June 3rd, 2008
06:42 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Obama's blue-collar problem persists

  A woman casts her ballot in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
A woman casts her ballot in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

(CNN) - We've talked all season about Barack Obama's problem with those white working class voters, those blue collar voters. Is that problem persisting?

Yes, it is. South Dakota’s Democratic primary voters with no college degree voted as their peers in previous contests had: for Hillary Clinton over Obama, 60-40 percent. Meanwhile, well-educated, white collar voters continue to back the Illinois senator. Take a look at college graduates in the state: they voted for Obama, 53 to 47 percent.

The effort to win over these working-class voters is just beginning for Obama – and it looks like he has his work cut out for him.

June 1st, 2008
04:00 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: A clean sweep for Clinton

 Sen. Hillary Clinton greets patrons Sunday at a San Juan, Puerto Rico, bakery.
Sen. Hillary Clinton greets patrons Sunday at a San Juan, Puerto Rico, bakery.

(CNN) - It was a clean sweep for Hillary Clinton in Puerto Rico in every demographic group, even those groups that are usually firmly in Barack Obama's camp.

The Illinois senator usually wins among males, young voters, those who attended college, and those with higher incomes.

But in the Puerto Rico primary, Clinton won 70 percent of the male vote, 65 percent of voters under 30, 70 percent of voters who attended college, and 66 percent of voters with an income of over $50,000.

Clinton also performed strongly among those demographic groups that have long constituted the backbone of her base.

She won 70 percent of female voters, 77 percent of those over 65, 69 percent who did not attend college, and 71 percent of voters with an income of $15,000 or less.


Filed under: Exit Polls
June 1st, 2008
03:18 PM ET
5 years ago

Schneider: How did Clinton win big?

(CNN) – CNN has projected that Hillary Clinton will win big in Puerto Rico. Why did she do so well there?

Two of the key reasons are her strong performance among those voters who favor statehood for Puerto Rico and her husband's popularity on the island.

According to CNN's exit polls, 60 percent of Puerto Ricans who participated in the primary favor statehood, and Clinton won 82 percent of those voters. Neither Clinton or Barack Obama have directly said they favor statehood for the island, but Clinton said earlier this week she thinks Puerto Ricans should be able to vote in the general election.

Bill Clinton's overwhelming popularity in Puerto Rico also gave the New York senator a boost. Just over 80 percent said they had a favorable view of the former president, and those voters went for Clinton by a 56 point margin, 78 percent to 22 percent. (Among the 15 percent who hold an unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton, 76 percent voted for Obama.)


Filed under: Exit Polls • Schneider analysis
June 1st, 2008
02:55 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Clinton's heavy campaigning appears to pay off

(CNN) – Hillary Clinton appears to be benefiting from her extensive campaigning in Puerto Rico.

The New York Democrat spent 6 of the last 7 days campaigning on the island, while Barack Obama only made one visit to the territory. Among those Puerto Rican voters who decided in the last week, Clinton has a 31 point advantage, 67 percent to 33 percent.

The vast majority of Puerto Rican voters (78 percent) also said the candidates' personal visits to the island - a rarity in previous presidential contests – had a big impact on how they voted.


Filed under: Exit Polls
June 1st, 2008
02:53 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Bill Clinton is big in Puerto Rico

(CNN) - Bill Clinton is a very popular figure among voters in Puerto Rico's Democratic primary, CNN's exit polls show.

Just over 80 percent give the former president a favorable rating, while only 15 percent hold a negative view of him.

The majority of Puerto Rican voters hold an unfavorable view of his successor, President Bush - but to a much lesser extent than Democrats on the mainland. According to the exit polls, 59 percent say they aren't happy with President Bush, while 39 percent hold a favorable rating.

Among Democrats in the United States, Bush's disapproval rating is above 90 percent. Why is he more popular among Puerto Rican voters? He ended the very unpopular Navy bombing exercises on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques in 2003, after six decades of escalating local opposition.


Filed under: Exit Polls
June 1st, 2008
02:41 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Puerto Rican voters rank economy as No. 1 issue

(CNN) - Puerto Rican voters appear to hold views in line with Democrats on the mainland.

According to CNN's exit polls, voters on the island rank the state of the economy as their top concern, and they overwhelmingly disapprove of the war in Iraq.

Sixty percent say the economy is the top issue, and 82 percent say they disapprove of the war in Iraq. Those numbers are nearly identical to what Democrats on the mainland have said in previous primary contests.


Filed under: Exit Polls
June 1st, 2008
02:04 PM ET
2 months ago

Schneider: Puerto Ricans have strong ties to United States

(CNN) - A majority of Puerto Rican voters have strong ties to the U.S. mainland and particularly to New York, according to CNN's exit polls.

Nearly 60 percent said they've lived on the mainland at one time, and 78 percent reported having family members who lived in New York, a fact that clearly advantages Clinton.


Filed under: Exit Polls
June 1st, 2008
01:44 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: Statehood question divides Puerto Rican voters

Puerto Rican Dems are divided over statehood.
Puerto Rican Dems are divided over statehood.

(CNN) - An issue unique to Puerto Rico appears to be dividing supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: whether the current U.S. territory should become a state or not.

Neither candidate has taken a direct position on the issue, though Puerto Rico's former governor, who has advocated statehood, supports Clinton.

According to CNN's exclusive exit polls, Clinton supporters there heavily back statehood for the commonwealth, while Obama's do not. Among Clinton supporters, 72 percent want it to be a U.S. state, 23 percent want it to remain a commonwealth, and 2 percent want it to be an independent country.

But among Obama supporters, 57 percent want Puerto Rico to stay a commonwealth while only 34 percent want it to be a U.S. state. Eight percent want it to be an independent country.


Filed under: Exit Polls
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