Potomac Primaries

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Call it the political Battle of the Potomac: today is primary day in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia - an unaccustomed star turn for a region defined by national politics but rarely courted by presidential hopefuls.

Coming off of his clean sweep of Hillary Clinton in the five Democratic contests this weekend, Barack Obama will be aiming for a political hat trick Tuesday. The area is home to large populations of African-Americans, affluent and well-educated voters – all voting blocs that have turned out at the polls in huge numbers for Obama so far this year. And Virginia allows independents – who have also gone for the Illinois senator by significant margins this cycle – to vote the state's Democrat contest.

In short: today's Potomac Primary seems demographically tailor-made for the Illinois senator.

Yesterday, Clinton downplayed Obama's weekend victories. And in conference calls and campaign memos, her team was still looking past the miserable month of February, which has so far delivered a string of losses, the revelation of short-term fund-raising headaches, and a headline-grabbing leadership shuffle. March 4 seems to feature some friendlier demographic terrain, at least, with a significant union and blue collar voting electorate in Ohio, and a heavy Latino presence in Texas – though the fact that both states allow independents to participate in the Democratic contest makes for a potential wild card.

(Still, the CNN delegate count – at least for the next few hours - gives the edge to Clinton: 1,148 to 1,121 over Obama due to her support from superdelegates).

On the Republican side, John McCain may be, statistically, the likely GOP winner - although he lost two contests this past weekend. The Arizona senator lost to underdog Mike Huckabee Saturday - by double digits in the Kansas caucuses, and in a squeaker in Louisiana. Even his lone victory came with a question mark, since 13 percent of the votes in the Washington state caucuses weren't counted – a decision Huckabee is challenging.

McCain may find some solace in results along the Chesapeake today, but the conservative unrest apparent in the weekend's Republican results would seem to raise major questions about his viability in the general election.

– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Barack Obama won two battles with a Clinton yesterday.

He pulled out a victory over Democratic presidential rival Hillary Clinton in the Maine caucuses, a result that defied the most recent polling. And he beat out former President Bill Clinton in a slightly less snowy contest: the Grammy Awards.

Obama's win in the spoken word category for the audio book version of his book "The Audacity of Hope" - his second Grammy - ties him with President Clinton, who's also won two. Hillary Clinton has also taken top honors in that category, for "It Takes a Village."

The latest CNN count now finds Clinton holds a narrow 27-delegate lead over Obama, 1,148 to 1,121, ahead of Tuesday's votes in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. - but there are enough delegates at stake in tomorrow's Potomac primary to shift the balance.

(Obama has won 986 delegates in voting so far this year - compared to 924 for Clinton - but she maintains a lead thanks to greater support among "superdelegates," an elite group of almost 800 Democratic Party officials and leaders who also will cast votes at the nomination convention this summer. CNN Political Research Director Robert Yoon and CNN Polling Director Keating Holland will lay out the latest in the hunt for delegates in a new story later today at http://www.CNNPolitics.com)

Meanwhile, Republican Mike Huckabee's campaign - fresh off of two stunning weekend wins - is "exploring all available legal options regarding the dubious final results" in the one state the former Arkansas governor didn't come out on top, Washington State. (Hours earlier, Huckabee had complained to reporters that the vote in Louisiana was "a weird deal" and "kind of cooked" in favor of John McCain. He ended up taking the top prize in that state's GOP primary, 43 to 42 percent over likely Republican nominee McCain - though that won't mean he gets the delegates at stake, because he failed to meet the 50 percent threshold required under state party rules.)

Weekend results aside, the GOP nomination may be just about out of statistical reach for the former governor - but reports of his campaign's demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Yesterday, the first day of this year's Conservative Political Action Conference, was about the movement's present and future. Today, it's all about the past, as President Bush makes his first – and final – visit to the conference as commander-in-chief.

President Bush was absent from last year's CPAC gathering in more ways than one. Not only did the president himself not make an appearance – his would-be successors barely mentioned his name. (For the record: a year ago, the five major GOP presidential candidates mentioned the current White House occupant roughly half a dozen times between them, mostly in passing. Ronald Reagan's name came up more than four times as often.)

The president's speech early this morning is a valedictory – the conservative version of his final State of the Union address. It's his account for the history books, with a focus on how he has been the movement's standard-bearer on tax cuts, stem cells and national security – and a familiar, defiant apologia of his administration's Iraq war policy: "We refused to yield when the going got tough. And when the history of our actions is written, it will show that we were right."

As for the race to succeed him: Mitt Romney is out - but the candidate who may gain the most from his exit isn't Mike Huckabee (the beneficiary of a sudden endorsement from a James Dobson) or even John McCain (whose path to the Republican nomination now seems secure). That distinction actually goes to Barack Obama, who no longer has to compete with McCain for independents in suddenly-competitive primary states like Virginia, Texas and Ohio, where independent voters are eligible to vote in upcoming Democratic contests.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Looking back, last year’s Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll provided a pretty good preview of the Republican race so far. The contest is a reliably headline-grabbing test of the conservative base’s preferred candidates -– and with hundreds of activists gathered in Washington for the final CPAC vote before the primary season, Mitt Romney’s team poured thousands of dollars into the event. Scores of Romney volunteers sporting identical campaign T-shirts, bused in at the campaign’s expense, stumped hard in the halls of the Omni Shoreham.

In the end, his campaign bankrolled one of the most ambitious and well-funded grassroots efforts in CPAC straw poll history -– only to come away with just 21 percent of the vote, and a costly, underwhelming victory over runner-up Rudy Giuliani, who essentially spent nothing at all. (When both first- and second-place votes were weighed, Romney did even worse - coming in third behind both Giuliani and Newt Gingrich.)

Mike Huckabee was a sentimental hit at the 2007 conference, drawing an enthusiastic reception from the conservative crowd –- then, as now, battling the idea that his relatively low-profile, cash-poor campaign was doomed from the start. ("My dear friends,” he said, “may I say to you that if celebrity and money are the criteria to be President of the United States, then Paris Hilton might be our next president.")

Finally, John McCain, who tended to avoid the annual gathering, was in the midst of a campaign to thaw his frosty relationship with many of the conservative power brokers in attendance. Last year, he weighed a last-minute CPAC appearance - before a rumored logistical showdown with organizers short-circuited the plan.

Today –- fresh off his strong Super Tuesday showing - McCain’s speaking on the first day of this year’s CPAC, just a few hours after Romney. Huckabee and Ron Paul will also address the conference - along with the man they’re trying to replace, President Bush.

Hillary Clinton’s team might have raised eyebrows yesterday as they tried to tag Barack Obama as the new “establishment candidate” – but as news of her campaign’s shrinking war chest continues to mount, it may be growing just a bit easier to imagine her in the role of Democratic underdog. Today, she stumps in newly-competitive Virginia, where Obama has dispatched his South Carolina turnout squad in advance of next Tuesday’s vote. Meanwhile, Obama continues to mine for delegates in red state territory with a stop in Nebraska, where Democrats weigh in this weekend.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

The race goes on...

NEW YORK (CNN) - Months ago, “Super Tuesday” was supposed to be the finish line in the race for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. With the dust still settling, it looks more like the halfway point for Democrats – and the Republican contest may not have entered the home stretch either.

Most of the candidates have reason to wake up with smiles on their faces this morning. John McCain, who won California and New York, cemented his status as the GOP frontrunner; Mike Huckabee swept four Southern states on a shoestring budget; Hillary Clinton strung together wins from the Northeast to the South and capped it off with a win in California; Barack Obama walked away with more than a dozen wins. Only Mitt Romney found little consolation in last night’s results.

For full coverage of the biggest primary night in U.S. history, check out the CNN Political Ticker and CNNPolitics.com.

Here’s a few highlights from the night that was:

How Clinton and McCain won California

Obama runs strong in caucus states

Democrats shatter turnout records

Huckabee: Don’t count me out

Bill Schneider: How trends played out nationally

NEW YORK (CNN) – Super Tuesday’s here, and with it the mandatory – and competing - lowball predictions from the deadlocked Democratic field.

First came the memo from Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe, which highlighted the senator’s worst recent poll showing in every Super Tuesday state, and made conservative delegate projections that seemed to bear little relation to the last-minute poll numbers pouring in from February 5 states.

But that bid to lower expectations was dwarfed by the afternoon conference call with Hillary Clinton campaign advisers Howard Wolfson and Mark Penn, who tried to dismiss today’s results altogether - along with those of the contests to follow in March and April – hours before polls opened, pointing instead to relative readiness for convention fights.

Over to a race with a clear frontrunner: John McCain faced a negative radio spot from Republican rival Mitt Romney yesterday – and launched a last-minute TV attack ad in return.

Romney’s spot aired during Rush Limbaugh’s show, in a bid to reach listeners as disaffected with the Arizona senator as the talk show host himself. Limbaugh faced a hard sell of his own yesterday, in the form of a personal letter testifying to McCain’s conservative bona fides, from none other than former GOP presidential candidate Robert Dole.

At the start of the race, the Super Tuesday contests figured to be the likely finish line. Now, February 5 feels more like the half-way mark – and today a grueling marathon. West Virginia’s GOP convention will wrap up sometime this afternoon, but official results won’t start pouring in until American Samoa’s Democratic caucuses end at 6:30 p.m. ET, and keep coming until California’s polls close at 11 p.m. ET (although the outcome in that race may not be known until well after midnight).

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

NEW YORK (CNN) - The weather, oddly enough, may be the most dependable element of the primary day equation heading into Super Tuesday: so far this year, mostly-localized, turnout-dampening storms have reliably hit on Election Day – and tomorrow is looking likely to fit that pattern, with miserable winter weather predicted to reach areas of some primary states from Illinois to Alabama. Another predictable primary eve arrival: the barrage of negative campaign e-mails flooding our inboxes - this time from Barack Obama's team, slamming Hillary Clinton on everything from health care mandates to the Iraq war.

(Some other pre-vote developments were a bit more unexpected. In a stunning display of confidence, or hubris - we’ll tell you which on February 6 - the Obama campaign unloaded a chunk of its $32 million January haul on a Super Bowl ad buys last night, airing local spots in states voting February 5-12.)

Weather aside, there's just one remotely safe guess as the week begins: short of an unprecedented last-minute shift - and this year, we’re not ruling anything out - neither of the Democratic candidates is likely to emerge from tomorrow's vote with the ability to claim a decisive advantage.

Granted, some of the polls in our rearview mirrors today may not be quite as close as they appear. The narrowing margin between the two Democratic frontrunners in most California surveys would mean a lot more if Clinton didn’t have a double-digit lead among votes cast via early balloting – meaning Obama would have to boast a record-breaking turnout operation just to keep that race close.

Of course, this year it’s not about states - it’s about reaching the nomination, one district and delegate at a time. Today, Hillary Clinton is looking to nail down her advantage in the Northeast, with stops in Connecticut, Massachusetts and a national town hall hosted live from New York City. Obama is spending the day taking her on on her home turf, with stops of his own in Connecticut and Massachusetts, and a Meadowlands rally in the shadow of the Big Apple.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney isn’t ready to concede John McCain’s inevitability just yet. The former Massachusetts governor’s recent ad buys may be in the low range (for him). And for the third week in a row, he hasn’t pulled the trigger on any hard-hitting contrast spots. But post-Florida, Romney has picked up a few high-profile base-pleasing nods as the anybody-but-McCain forces coalesce around him, with Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Rick Santorum rallying to his side. Some recent California polls show the GOP race there tightening to a virtual dead heat. And the Maine caucuses may not make for much momentum, but it looks like Romney will pull in another 18 delegates in that state – meaning he and McCain are still, technically, just about neck-and-neck in the all-important delegate count ahead of Tuesday’s contests.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Schneider: The bottom line

The audience response at last night’s debate was the same as that of Democrats across the country: they’re happy with their choice this year, but they don’t want to have to make it.

I thought overall Barack Obama’s position was still that of the challenger, and Hillary Clinton was effectively the incumbent. He needed to peel votes away from her - and he did make some progress on the Iraq issue. But how many Democrats are still so concerned about the war than about anything else?

Six months ago, being right on Iraq would have been enough. Now? I’m not so sure. It took a while for the issue to take center stage last night, and that’s no accident: other concerns have come to the forefront.

The debate doesn’t kill momentum for either one. But does it help build any? Obama’s strong showing could very well help him. But how much - enough to overtake Clinton? I just didn’t see that.

To the extent that the debate was a draw, it helps Clinton.

Why? Because holding his own wasn’t enough. Obama’s task was to make the case that there were huge differences between them. Just holding his own and looking presidential was not enough: He had to convince Democrats who like Clinton that there’s a reason she shouldn’t be the party’s nominee.

In all, it was an unhelpful debate. They minimized their differences. Last night’s showdown will rally Democrats, no question – but won’t help them make a decision. The biggest applause line of the evening came for the idea of the two of them together on the same ticket.

– CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

SIMI VALLEY, California (CNN) - Mike Huckabee, I think, stood out in this debate as the one who made sense, talked as ordinary people do, and rose above politics. They may have scored. He connected.

And that’s a problem for Romney, who would like to become the alternative to John McCain among conservatives who oppose the Arizona senator. But he has very tough competition from Huckabee, who’s forcing people to re-think his run at a time when he was supposed to be out of the game.

But this has always been the way he’s worked: Romney uses money to stay competitive. Huckabee has debates.

I don’t think McCain made many gains – and I think he may have caused people to re-think the race. I don’t think this was his strongest night, not because he was under attack, but because he wasn’t a straight talker. He sounded very much like a typical politician. He was aiming a lot of attacks at Romney – some of which, like the charge that he had set a strict timetable for Iraq withdrawal, seemed very questionable.

A couple of Romney’s answers were quite good, particularly when he struck back at McCain over the Iraq timetables issue. I don’t think he did himself any harm. But to the extent that Huckabee may have made any gains from his performance, Romney’s got bigger worries out of tonight than the Arizona senator.

All in all: Huckabee gained ground, McCain probably lost ground, and Romney didn’t help or hurt himself – although he did effectively defend himself. McCain sounded petty – and that’s not the McCain voters know and like.

– CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Some observers view the current Democratic contest as a dizzying multi-state brawl.

If only it were that simple.

Take New York City. Recent surveys have shown Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a stiff fight for the Big Apple - whose huge numbers of young people, educated professionals and black voters have formed the Illinois senator’s base in each of the presidential contests to date.

If we are to believe the New York polls, if Obama simply holds on to his current standings - and fails to gain a single vote in the week ahead - he’d still capture, at a bare minimum, at least a third of the state’s pledged delegates. Not a bad haul in a state that’s supposed to serve as a Clinton firewall.

(Another Clinton bloc being eyed by the Obama team this week: Hispanic voters. Yesterday, his campaign released a brand new Spanish-language spot that featured Ted Kennedy’s image, and a new appeal based on a shared outsider status. "We know what it feels like being used as a scapegoat just because of our origin and last name,” says the announcer in the radio ad, which will run in California and Arizona. “And no one understands this better than Barack Obama.")

So in a presidential contest that’s rapidly turning into a district-by-district delegate hunt, Clinton’s Florida win - which resulted in zero delegates – might not be quite the springboard to Super Tuesday she’d hoped. (One more slightly uncomfortable thought for the Clinton team to ponder: if the Florida fight hadn’t been the Democratic story of the evening, the Obama campaign’s late-night revelation that it had decided to jettison tends of thousands in additional Rezko cash might have gotten just a bit more play.)

A dwindling Republican field meets tonight in what could potentially turn into a John McCain-Mike Huckabee tag team bout with Florida runner-up Mitt Romney.

The McCain campaign pulled its tough anti-Romney social issues robo-call late yesterday – but the former governor’s concession speech last night managed to work in just enough veiled anti-McCain references to keep the duo’s relations somewhere on the emotional spectrum between strong dislike and pure distilled hatred.

Fresh off his Florida win, McCain is now surveying a fresh Super Tuesday landscape, with Rudy Giuliani – whose concession last night, possibly his last of the race, was interrupted mid-speech by Romney’s - as a motivated new campaign surrogate.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - It’s a measure of the drama surrounding the current campaign that the State of the Union isn’t the biggest political headline of the morning: It’s primary day, and according to Rudy Giuliani, there’s only one ticket out of Florida.

The grabber, of course: this assessment comes from a candidate who hasn’t held first place in the GOP standings here since voting began.

"This is a place where we have to test ourselves," Giuliani told reporters yesterday. "The winner of Florida will win the nomination; we're going to win Florida."

So would a loss here end his White House run? "When it’s Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision," he said.

The high-stakes Republican contest is grabbing most of the attention - but early voting in Florida’s no-stakes Democratic contest is still on a pace to break turnout records. And while Barack Obama was sharing a Washington stage with three new Kennedy family backers, Hillary Clinton’s campaign revealed a pair of high-profile Florida endorsements: U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and former attorney general Janet Reno.

The Florida endorsements, tonight’s Miami rally, the last-minute candidate calls for a reprieve from national party penalties on the state – denials aside, squint hard and it’s not hard to see the outlines of a non-campaign campaign. The grassroots faithful of “Florida for Hillary” see it too – they’re still busy recruiting convention delegates through noon today (“Signing up to run is simple but you have to act fast,” says their Web site. What you will find in the announcement: exclamation points! What you won’t: any hint that the state’s delegates won’t exactly find a warm welcome in Denver – or party-reserved hotel rooms, or space on the convention floor.)

As the polls get ready to open across Florida, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are already focused on contests far beyond the state.

Yesterday, the Clinton campaign announced the launch of their Super Tuesday Rapid Responders, their official 22-state media surrogate network. And the Obama team spent the day laying out a post-February 5 plan of their own: a single-minded focus on padding the delegate count. They’re counting on a full-court superdelegate press from John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, and a grassroots push to draw on isolated areas of support - chipping away at Clinton’s pledged delegate haul in states that are supposed to act as her firewall.

Still, they admit they’re stronger in some areas than others – conceding to CNN yesterday that Latinos in general, and New York in particular, are currently in Clinton’s corner. They’re not wrong: the senator has dominated polls of Democratic primary voters in her home state, and can credit Latino voters with her Nevada win.

Still, with a 22-state playing field to cover, it doesn’t exactly send a message of confidence when her campaign lays out resources for a Spanish-language radio buy in the Big Apple. Those spots will reportedly begin running today.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Tonight is President Bush’s final State of the Union address - but there may be nearly as much attention paid to another Washington speech a few hours earlier and a few stops up the Red Line.

Meanwhile, as Barack Obama takes that American University stage with both Ted and Caroline Kennedy today, Hillary Clinton will hold an event back in the Massachusetts senator’s home state. Clinton had a substantial lead over Obama there in polls taken before the South Carolina vote – but the Illinois senator, fresh off his overwhelming weekend win, now sports the backing of the February 5 state’s Democratic governor and both U.S. senators, with just over a week to go until Super Tuesday.

Both the Democratic frontrunners will be on hand to vote against FISA cloture today, and stick around for SOTU this evening.

Down south, there’s just 24 hours until the presidential primary, but already nearly a million Floridians have cast their ballots in early and absentee voting – which makes late surveys there an even more uncertain results roadmap than usual.

(Of note: more than 400,000 of those votes have been cast in the Democratic primary-that-isn’t, according to the state party. That’s more than four times the total number of Democratic early and absentee ballots in the 2004 presidential primary – one sign the national party’s penalties haven’t affected the passion of the base in this key swing state.)

Recent polls also give Clinton the advantage here – but the ongoing argument over whether or not the contest will actually count for anything heading forward (whether in the real, delegate-granting sense the Clinton campaign has called for, or via some indefinable edge heading into Super Tuesday) has taken on an esoteric, angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin quality. (The answers right now are: who knows? And: it depends.)

Turning back to a contest that counts – at least halfway – the question of the day is whether Mitt Romney has successfully managed to turn the focus of the Florida GOP contest back to the economy, despite John McCain’s best efforts over the weekend. Mike Huckabee is already looking past the state to friendlier territory, spending much of the day in Tennessee.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - At last night’s Republican debate in Florida, Rudy Giuliani told Tim Russert he’ll mount a come-from-behind win, like the New York Giants. Unfortunately, his recent finishes have looked a lot more like the New York Knicks.

Giuliani hopes to jumpstart his candidacy in Florida - a state that is crucial to his bid for the GOP presidential nomination. He directed his criticism at the Democrats seeking their party's nomination. And he wasn't the only White House hopeful on stage in the Sunshine State who was holding back from launching a full-out assault on his GOP rivals. There were a few sharp elbows, but none of the roundhouse punches the Democrats threw Monday night. In fact, the mood on-stage was, for the most part, oddly civil for a critical primary season faceoff. Even McCain (the new national front-runner, according to recent polls) and Romney (who told a crowd just hours before the debate that “most of the guns will be aimed at me”) escaped mostly unscathed.

It was the first debate of the post-Fred Thompson era, and it’s worth noting that his exit seems have had an unexpected effect on the race. Before he dropped out, some observers thought Mike Huckabee, who draws from the same evangelical base as Thompson, would benefit. Others predicted that John McCain, a close friend of the former Tennessee senator, would get a boost.

Still, while his chief fundraiser has joined Sen. John McCain's team already, Thompson has yet to back any of his former rivals – and the candidate who’s seen the biggest Florida gains since his exit has been Mitt Romney, with a small but significant uptick in the most recent surveys.

If Thompson were to back his former colleague McCain before Tuesday’s primary vote there, it might make a difference. But with the state’s primaries closed to independents, the Arizona senator has to be hoping the latest assessment from notoriously straight-talking mom Roberta McCain is off the mark this time. (When asked by C-SPAN’s Steve Scully this week how much support her son had from the GOP base, her immediate response was: “I don't think he has any.”)

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Former President Bill Clinton told a group of South Carolina voters Wednesday night that one of the perks of leaving the White House was the ability to say whatever's on his mind.

He seems to be taking full advantage of it.

His four-minute lecture to CNN’s Jessica Yellin on misplaced media priorities might have been more convincing if it hadn’t come surrounded by a day’s worth of headline-grabbing attack lines. The method to the week’s campaign trail madness is undeniable, and impressive: his wife hasn’t stumped in South Carolina since the debate, but the Clinton name hasn’t budged from the state’s front pages since she left. Today, she returns to South Carolina for a final 48-hour push.

By all rights, John McCain should be a marked man as the Florida race winds down. The primary season isn’t over if McCain loses the state – it just might be if he wins. But credit his opponents’ shrinking cash reserves, or the soothing effect of the Florida sunshine: the Arizona senator has yet to face a negative ad since the race shifted there. A few opposing campaigns are coasting on fumes, so a last-minute gut-check wouldn’t exactly be the race’s the biggest shock - but with less than a week to go until Election Day, the odds of actually landing a knockout punch grow slimmer by the hour.

Tonight, McCain watches his back as the Republican field faces off for the final time before Florida’s voters head to the polls.

All the Democrats are in South Carolina; Republicans are in Florida.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - All the pieces were there, from base-pleasing social stands to an undeniable (and inescapable) TV presence. But somehow, Fred Thompson’s campaign whole was never the sum of its parts – with a sell-by date that passed long before Saturday’s disappointing South Carolina showing.

The remaining Republican contenders are all staking their claim to their share of Florida real estate today - though Rudy Giuliani yesterday downgraded the state he’d wagered his presidential bid on from a “must-win” to a mere “important win” (a distinction that may be raising the question in the minds of some of his donors: just when does the White House hopeful believe it’s absolutely necessary to start, you know, winning something?)

Meanwhile, John McCain’s strong showing on the former mayor’s home turf in New York polls released this week – and the Arizona senator’s trip to the Big Apple yesterday to pick up a million dollars’ worth of campaign cash - can’t help Giuliani’s frame of mind heading into that Super Tuesday contest.

On the Democratic side: Barack Obama’s tough new persona is out in full force, with the Illinois senator telling the Christian Broadcasting Network last night that the waves of below-the-radar e-mail rumors that have hounded his campaign for months are part of a “systematic political strategy,” conveniently timed according to the primary calendar.

In more socially-acceptable slash-and-burn campaign news, Hillary Clinton’s oppo team went into overdrive with yesterday’s effort. The approach: Why bet the news cycle on just one attack of the day when you can send out half a dozen, all helpfully summarized and bullet-pointed in a single e-mail?

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Bill Schneider’s take on last night’s Democratic debate:

MYRTLE BEACH, South Carolina (CNN) - It's obvious who the Democrats think will win the Republican nomination: They’re all talking about who will run strongest against John McCain.

This is new - and it's likely the result of his South Carolina win on Saturday. Now each of his potential general election opponents is laying out their strategy to beat a Republican candidate who has repeatedly shown he appeals to independents.

At the CNN/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate in Myrtle Beach last night, Hillary Clinton held strong on her mantra that she's a fighter who has withstood the "Republican attack machine." Barack Obama and John Edwards, on the other hand, stressed their broad appeal to voters not usually inclined to vote for a Democrat.

And Obama injected Iraq - his strongest issue - into the debate, saying he can draw a powerful contrast with John McCain on the issue. On the other hand, McCain is likely to win any debate on national security - it's his strongest issue too, and he speaks on it with a degree of authority that virtually no other politician has.

Edwards got himself back in it last night - he showcased his style and his key issues, and is clearly back in the game. He showed he continues to deserve to share a debate stage with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama; thanks to that performance, voters here in South Carolina will likely give him another look heading into Saturday’s primary vote.

The debate also showcased the remarkably different primary strategies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. She's going for the partisans that have historically constituted the overwhelming majority of primary voters. This is clear over and over again in her language, every time she talks about "fighting Republicans."

Obama, on the other hand, talks a very different game - he repeatedly said last night he can forge consensus, and will work with Republicans.

Clinton's strategy of going for the partisans in the primaries has shown itself to be a winning one time and again. But this election season has been anything but normal - and it's possible that after eight years with one of the most partisan presidents in history, even partisan Democrats want a consensus builder.

Clinton is running as the anti-Bush, while Obama is running as the un-Bush. Which will primary voters prefer?

–CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

***

Meanwhile, post-debate: What were they talking about?

Hillary Clinton and John Edwards met privately backstage following a very contentious Democratic presidential debate in this coastal city, sources with both campaigns confirm to CNN.

The meeting took place in the Edwards campaign green room.

One of the sources said the meeting happened by chance and the conversation consisted of light chatter. The source added that Clinton did jokingly take a jab at Edwards about his beating up on her during the debate. In fact, the real fireworks were between Clinton and Barack Obama.

An Edwards source noted that it was not surprising the two senators met backstage.

"That happens back there,” said the source, who said it has happened “more often” with Obama. “It’s tight quarters – we’re all on top of each other.”

The question is - with only two weeks before Super Tuesday - what else was discussed?

–CNN’s Candy Crowley and Mike Roselli

Tonight, CNN and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute host the final Presidential Debate before the South Carolina Democratic Primary. Sen. Hillary Clinton, former Sen. John Edwards, and Sen. Barack Obama will take the stage in Myrtle Beach. Tune into CNN and http://www.CNNPolitics.com throughout the day for extensive coverage of this event, as well as the race for the Republican presidential nomination. CNN’s Wolf Blitzer will moderate with questions from CNN’s Suzanne Malveaux and Joe Johns. The Debate will air live from 8 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET. Democratic Debate Day

WASHINGTON (CNN) - He’s not on the ballot this cycle, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see former President Bill Clinton take the stage with the remaining Democratic presidential contenders at tonight’s CNN/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate in South Carolina.

The former president was nearly as much of a presence leading up to Saturday’s Nevada caucuses as his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton – or any of the Democratic candidates, really. In Nevada, as in New Hampshire, President Clinton was in a fighting mood the night before the vote, taking direct aim at Sen. Barack Obama; and again, in defiance of the polls, his wife pulled out a win.

This time, Obama is calling foul. President Clinton may not be a candidate this year, Obama told ABC, but he’s starting to feel as though he’s “running against both Clintons.” Top Obama strategist David Axelrod is chiming in too, accusing the couple of a “good cop, bad cop” routine this campaign season.

There may be no method to this madness, but there’s certainly a routine developing in the Clinton-Obama feud: Public truces are made, then broken hours later; last-minute, dueling conference calls are scheduled an hour or so apart; escalating charges and counter-charges are traded, investigations called for, inboxes flooded with allegations of distortion and dirty tricks. The over-under on response time from either side, in a Sunday CNN calculation, is down to a mind-warping seven minutes.

And as shock waves from the chaotic Nevada caucuses continue to ripple through Democratic ranks, yet another unwelcome pattern seems to be repeating itself. Last week, during the dustup over Sen. Clinton’s comments on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s legacy, observers noted that her campaign stood to benefit every time race was on the table, no matter the context.

This week, Obama may have the most to gain from the emerging dynamic: African-American voters in South Carolina have been swinging his way, according to recent polls – and nothing motivates the base quite like the charges of voter suppression coming out of Nevada. Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are accusing the other of engaging in the practice.

The brutal bloodletting of the primary season may disappear quickly after a nominee is decided. But will the battle wounds really heal completely by November?

Momentum seems to have a short shelf life this cycle, but for what it’s worth, two Republicans come out of Saturday’s vote with the wind at their backs. John McCain won the kingmaker South Carolina contest, eight years after his campaign collapsed there. And Ron Paul’s second-place showing in Nevada’s neglected GOP caucuses – and near-tie with third-place Fred Thompson in South Carolina – may, at least for the moment, silence the skeptics. (Could it be the blimp?)

The list of walking wounded out of South Carolina is longer. It includes: Mike Huckabee, who actually split the state’s evangelical vote with John McCain; Fred Thompson, whose last-stand heroics translated into an underwhelming 16 percent finish; and Rudy Giuliani, whose Florida focus reduced his Saturday showing there to an asterisk.

Somewhere in the middle: Mitt Romney, who comes out of the weekend with a delegate lead, a caucus win – and a disappointing fourth-place showing in South Carolina, despite spending as much on ads there as the rest of the Republican field combined.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential candidates and their surrogates took a brief break from attacking each other Thursday to beat up on the media instead.

Bill Clinton, campaigning on his wife’s behalf in California, had a testy San Francisco face-off with a reporter he barely knew. Mitt Romney tangled with a reporter – the AP’s Glen Johnson, late of the Boston Globe – he knows all too well. And John Edwards’ campaign took on the entire press corps, blasting the media for allegedly ignoring the former North Carolina senator this cycle in favor of the flashier Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama duel (and prompting a reprise of the eternal chicken-or-the-egg dilemma of trail reporting: which comes first, the poll numbers or the press coverage?)

It’s roughly an East-West divide again today – Democrats trying their luck in and around Las Vegas, Republicans stumping in South Carolina – with the exception of Mitt Romney, who may benefit from Nevada’s sizeable Mormon minority in the state’s mostly-neglected GOP caucuses this Saturday.

Meanwhile: the “Common Sense Issues” robo-call marathon on his behalf may be winding down in South Carolina, but Mike Huckabee has even more intimidating allies on his side there this week.

The former Arkansas governor seems to be running neck-and-neck with John McCain in the state as that race draws to a close, but if 12-year-old boys could vote, it wouldn’t even be close: martial arts star Chuck Norris, who has spent much of the primary season stumping for the former Arkansas governor, has been joined on the Huckabee campaign trail this week by WWE star Ric Flair.

That combination of push poll madness and high-profile muscle backing Huckabee should be enough to strike fear in the heart of any Republican rival. But none of them may be much help when it comes to battling the man who looks, at least this week, to be Huckabee’s biggest enemy: the candidate himself.

So far this week, the former governor has: said the Constitution should be amended to comply with divine mandates; created a stir when his damage control involved telling FOX he wasn’t “suggesting that we re-write the constitution to reflect tithing or Sunday school attendance”; become the first presidential candidate to sign a controversial, headline-grabbing anti-immigration pledge; and told a Southern crowd that when it came to the Stars and Bars, if outsiders “want to come tell us what to do with the flag, we'd tell them what to do with the pole.”

Those comments might play well with some of South Carolina's Republicans – but what are they going to say when he gets to L.A.? Saturday’s vote may dominate the conversation this week, but the February 5 contests loom ever larger.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

WASHINGTON (CNN) - When is an endorsement not quite an endorsement? When it reads anything like yesterday’s tepid backing of Obama in the conservative-leaning Las Vegas Review-Journal:

“Is Barack Obama, then, the ideal Democratic candidate for president? Hardly,” it began, calling his policy proposals “old-line, welfare-state solutions that haven't spent enough time in the microwave to appear even superficially appetizing.” And in a reprise of recent primary-season attacks on Obama’s bid, it dubbed the candidate himself “a relatively young man with relatively little of the kind of real-world experience that prepares a candidate” for major crises.

But, they concluded, “Barack Obama is, at least, likeable.” Better than the alternative, sure, but still: not a line likely to make it into his campaign ads anytime soon.

Vegas is turning into a tough town for the Illinois senator. On Wednesday, Hillary Clinton took a recent, much-used Obama line – in which he lightheartedly describes himself as a disorganized, big-picture kind of guy – and used it to question his management ability.

Meanwhile, her campaign is sending out a mailer, a holdover from New Hampshire, that attacks Obama on taxes and Social Security – a huge issue in this retiree-heavy state. So Obama found himself forced to spend time on the campaign trail Wednesday on the defensive, yet again.

This morning, the Review-Journal backed Mitt Romney in his party’s caucuses. But the real action on the Republican side is back East, where just about everyone in South Carolina’s GOP contest is spending more time talking about their opponents than they are about themselves.

John McCain is finding the South Carolina campaign trail unexpectedly chilly in more ways than one. Tuesday night, close friend Fred Thompson went on the attack. Just a day later, it seemed anti-Romney ally Mike Huckabee, a major rival for evangelical votes in South Carolina, might be ready to turn on his former comrade-in-arms.

A senior Huckabee adviser told the Christian Broadcasting Network late Wednesday that “the free pass for McCain is over. The next few days in South Carolina will be rough and tumble. Although we will continue to take the high road, I think you will see a message develop; us vs. them. …”

For their part, opponents grumble that McCain’s campaign – which recently sent out a release trumpeting the debut of its South Carolina “truth squad” – is trying to use the ghosts of 2000 to attract sympathetic coverage in what had been, at least until this week, one of the mildest primary battles in South Carolina history.

It all makes for an edgy Republican field - but at least one GOP candidate has a smile on his face as he stumps in South Carolina today: Ron Paul, whose cash-rich campaign boasted Wednesday that he had beaten Rudy Giuliani in Michigan and Fred Thompson in New Hampshire – and had, in the process, drawn 30,000 more primary votes in total than either man. Today, the Texas congressman makes the pilgrimage to Bob Jones University.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Three down and three up

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Well, that certainly cleared things up. Three major GOP contests, three winners heading into Saturday’s critical South Carolina contest. Good news for Mitt Romney – still, the biggest momentum out of Michigan may not go to the winner, but to the story of an election eve comment from third-place Mike Huckabee, still resonating as the contest moves south.

"[Some of my opponents] do not want to change the Constitution, but I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God,” Huckabee told a Warren, Michigan audience Monday night, “and that's what we need to do, is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards, rather than try to change God's standards."

That comment may have been music to the ears of the state’s Christian conservatives, but despite the jump in evangelical turnout, Huckabee failed to attract the same level of support he received from this voting bloc in Iowa. Evangelicals showed up – but despite a huge push by pro-Huckabee organizers, they were just as likely to support Romney as they were the former Baptist minister.

And there’s another big story out of the Republican results that has little to do with Romney: the campaign of Fred Thompson, who has largely avoided taking shots at close friend John McCain, took aim at the Michigan runner-up in an election-night press release that included attacks on Huckabee and, almost as an afterthought, Mitt Romney too.

For the Democrats, last night brought a mild face-off in Las Vegas, where the biggest drama was the last-minute legal maneuvers over Dennis Kucinich’s appearance on stage with the rest of the field.

More interesting developments came off-stage, where Barack Obama received the backing of the Las Vegas Review-Journal – not the Democratic base’s favorite read, perhaps, but the largest paper in the state.

But the biggest news for the Obama campaign last night may have come out of Michigan, where roughly 70 percent of the state’s African-American Democrats chose the “uncommitted” option over Hillary Clinton, the only major candidate to appear on the ballot – and about three-quarters said they would have cast votes for Obama if his name had appeared on the ballot.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Michigan weighs in:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Finally, after days of verbal warfare on the trail in Michigan, comes a late appearance by the most-feared campaign force of all: the mighty snowflake.

Michigan is set to receive a few inches of snow today – no blizzard, but perhaps enough to dampen turnout slightly this Election Day.

Who benefits from the wintry gift? Republican Mitt Romney's polling better among those who've sent in absentee ballots than people making last-minute decisions – who tend to be less-motivated to head to the polls. So if anyone in the Republican presidential field gets a slight boost from inclement weather, it could be the former Massachusetts governor. And in a race this tight – most recent polls show Romney and rival John McCain statistically tied – any edge is welcome.

Democrat Hillary Clinton is the only major contender on her party's ballot in Michigan – but that doesn't make the choice any easier for the state's Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Do they cast their ballots for Clinton in what is, essentially, a meaningless contest? Do they vote, as some John Edwards and Barack Obama supporters have urged, for the "uncommitted" option on the ballot, potentially forcing a convention compromise (assuming the eventual nominee and national party allows the state's delegation to be seated after all)?

Do they vote in the Republican primary instead of their own – a move that helped lift McCain, who's still their favorite in the GOP field, to a victory back in 2000? Or do they follow the advice of Markos Moulitsas and other activists who've urged them to support Mitt Romney in an attempt to, in his opinion, sabotage his party's general election chances?

Look for the answers to those questions tonight on CNN's Special Election Coverage, and at cnnpolitics.com.
Most of the polls in Michigan close by 8 p.m. ET, though a few western counties will be open until 9 p.m. ET.

The presidential contest goes national

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race is definitely national now, as the remaining candidates fan out today in five states.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are safely on opposite sides of the country. He hits the campaign trail in Nevada and she spends time at a Martin Luther King Day event in New York after a weekend filled with fallout over her comments on the slain civil rights leader and a heated back-and-forth with the Obama campaign.

Meanwhile, the top three Republicans in the Michigan primary contest spend the day in much closer proximity, brushing past one another as they race across the state in the final hours before Tuesday's vote. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney – who spent Sunday tangling over taxes – visit the Detroit Auto Show within a few short hours of each other, and John McCain hits five cities in a bid to get an edge, after two polls showed a tight race in Michigan.

In the state’s Democratic primary race – where most of the field doesn’t even appear on the ballot – Hillary Clinton currently leads “uncommitted,” 56 percent to 30 percent in the Detroit Free Press poll released this weekend. Supporters of John Edwards and Barack Obama have been urged to vote “uncommitted”– a move that could create an unexpected headache for the Clinton campaign.

The question of the day: Which will be the bigger factor in tomorrow’s Michigan vote – evangelicals mobilizing for Huckabee, or the expected deluge of crossover voters? 

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today

WASHINGTON (CNN) - With last night’s South Carolina face-off behind them, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are once again fighting over an early-voting Midwestern state.

This time, it’s Michigan, where both men are spending the day – and where post-New Hampshire surveys have found the GOP primary has turned into a three-way race, between Romney, Huckabee, and John McCain.

Thanks to overwhelming evangelical support, Huckabee’s bare-bones campaign trumped Romney’s cash-rich effort in Iowa. Romney’s vowed to make his next stand in Michigan, and has poured millions into the state.

But pro-Huckabee organizer Gary Glenn says he has a “top-tier” email list of 600 activists working on the former Arkansas governor’s behalf in the state, and putting their rolodexes to work for him, too. Is the lowly address book mightier than the major ad buy? The answer comes in less than a week.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - It’s all about South Carolina today, where GOP voters head to the polls in a little more than a week for the first of the state’s two presidential primaries.

Before the New Hampshire primary, Barack Obama was leading Hillary Clinton, and Mike Huckabee was leading John McCain and Mitt Romney, by double-digit margins in most recent Palmetto State polls. But with no post-New Hampshire numbers for guidance, the terrain is a bit tricky.

Rudy Giuliani is already looking past the state's January 19 primary, setting up shop in Florida and focusing his efforts on that state's January 29 primary.

Others are staking everything on their South Carolina Alamo: Fred Thompson has moved his entire campaign here, lock stock and barrel. (If that alone doesn’t say “last stand,” the pay cuts some of his staffers are taking to work the South Carolina effort speaks for itself.)

And John McCain, fresh off his New Hampshire triumph, is making a serious play for territory that served as his Waterloo eight years ago – and still planning to spend enough time in Michigan to once again make Mitt Romney’s life a lot more complicated.

All of them end the day in Myrtle Beach, at the Republican presidential primary debate.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

The Democratic presidential field will get smaller today, as Bill Richardson is expected to abandon his bid for the White House. And Michael Bloomberg is still considering jumping into the race. Political Ticker

Making news today

Manchester was a distant memory for most of the presidential field before the first edition of the Union-Leader hit the newsstands this morning; the rest will be gone by lunchtime.

New Hampshire changed nothing, and it changed everything. The race is still as wide-open this morning as it was before yesterday’s vote. But the differences dominate headlines this morning: John McCain’s effort, once on life support, is looking healthier than many of his main GOP opponents. And Hillary Clinton’s campaign obit, and Barack Obama’s seemingly-unstoppable momentum, both feature newly-minted question marks.

After traveling in a pack from Des Moines to Manchester, the candidates spread out across the country now as the race goes national. South Carolina is one of the next big prizes on the calendar, and John Edwards and Mike Huckabee are joining Fred Thompson there today. But Rudy Giuliani, who released a Spanish-language ad yesterday, is in Florida. Mitt Romney and John McCain are focused on Michigan, where the Arizona senator is again looking to steal a win despite Romney’s theoretical home-field advantage, and the former Massachusetts governor is still seeking his first primary win. And Barack Obama visits the heart of Clinton country, stumping in Jersey City – just minutes from New York City, and his main rival herself – before swinging into Manhattan to pick up some serious campaign cash.

The Culinary workers are set to announce their presidential pick this morning at 11 a.m. PT; Barack Obama is the rumored choice (or at least: he was, before the polls closed.)

Meanwhile: we’re more pleased than you can imagine to announce that the campaign trail forecast in the Palmetto State today is a balmy 73 degrees in Columbia.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

PRIMARY DAY!

After months of political ads and hundreds of visits from presidential hopefuls, New Hampshire voters finally head to the polls today. Already, the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, located in the far northern reaches of the state, has weighed in.

And the winners there are Barack Obama and John McCain.

The candidates have spent the past four days criss-crossing the state, and there has been a lot of talk about change, as candidates from both sides of the aisle jump on the campaign trail's latest buzzword:

After a late-night flight from Iowa, Mitt Romney stepped off the airplane here Friday with a retooled stump speech in his back pocket, and hope that more than a year’s worth of organizing would help deliver him a much-needed victory in the Granite State.

Campaign commercials reach a fever pitch in New Hampshire

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is leading the Democratic pack in the state, according to a CNN-WMUR poll out Monday followed by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov.Mitt Romney by a narrow margin the survey found. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee - whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney - passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Making news today:

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, spent his Saturday looking for the Obama bounce. Yesterday, it found him.

Barack Obama has a 10-point edge over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire in the CNN/WMUR poll released Sunday afternoon, with 39 percent support to Clinton’s 29 percent. John Edwards has slipped to 16 percent. The apparent Obama surge seems to be sapping support from Clinton and Edwards, both down several points from the last CNN poll.

The electability issue is now officially a non-starter for the Clinton campaign: 42 percent of those primary voters now say Obama has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee. Even more troubling for the New York senator, two out of three Democrats – a new high - now say the ability to bring change is more important than experience.

That isn’t true on the Republican side, where part of John McCain’s edge over rival Mitt Romney arises from the fact that 40 percent of Granite State GOP voters say he’s got the right experience to be president, as opposed to 26 percent for the former Massachusetts governor. McCain now leads Romney among primary voters, 32 to 26 percent. Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul follow at 14, 11, and 10 percent.

One of the other major factors in McCain’s rise is the growing numbers of independents who now say they’ll be voting in the Republican primary. It’s a development that should have been bad news for Obama, but isn’t – a result that underscores Obama’s new strength.

If there’s a secret to stemming his momentum here, his opponents have just a day left to find it.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

It isn’t just that Barack Obama won Iowa decisively last night over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. It’s the way he won: by beating his opponents across a stunning demographic spectrum.

Obama won Democrats, Republicans and independents; men and women; and virtually every income bracket. People most worried about the Iraq war gave him their vote. So did voters most concerned about the state of the economy. And those whose top priority is fixing the nation’s health care system.

Among Republicans, Huckabee pulled off a similar showing. As expected, he won among evangelicals. But he also scored big with voters in every income bracket except for those earning over $100,000 a year, and among every age group.

The big questions as the campaigns descend on New Hampshire this morning: Can Obama convert his Iowa win into a similarly dominant Granite State showing? And we now know how Huckabee fares in a state where more than half the voters are evangelical. Can he make a similar showing in less-pious climes?
.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

For the full caucus post-mortem, check out today’s analysis from CNN’s Mark Preston and Alan Silverleib at cnnpolitics.com

Making news today:

NEW YORK (CNN) - As the sun rises on caucus day, the only thing we know for sure is that by late tonight the candidates, the campaigns and the national press corps will have left the Hawkeye State, en route to their new Manchester stomping grounds.

Just about everything else in this wide-open race is up for debate.

Traditionally, there are three tickets out of Iowa – candidates who can win, place or show have a good case for continuing on to the New Hampshire primary. But in this unpredictable 2008 election cycle, we may see even more heading to the Granite State with a legitimate shot at the nomination.

In the meantime, here’s a couple of those questions in the air in downtown Des Moines this morning:

– Will evangelical turnout crack the 50 percent mark, as one senior Mitt Romney aide fretted to the Boston Globe yesterday? Or…

– Will the barrage of negative attacks that have helped pull Mike Huckabee’s poll numbers down from their high-water mark end up costing him the race?
(Related query: how will the drama surrounding Huckabee’s own campaign
spots - the religious appeals both overt and otherwise, the famously
cancelled anti-Romney spot – play with the base?)

– Will this be the year first-time voters finally make their presence felt on caucus night? Or will Hillary Clinton’s edge with older women voters prove to be the only margin that really matters?

– And: which is the most important number to keep in mind tonight (other than the actual results)?

Is it: 5,000? (the number of volunteer drivers the Clinton campaign has on standby to ferry stranded and elderly voters to their precinct caucuses.)
22,000? (the number of GOTV phone calls the Romney campaign made yesterday.)
Or maybe: 25? (the expected temperature in Sioux City, Iowa this evening, according to CNN’s Weather Team.)

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Here’s your final Iowa campaign trail weather report:

Des Moines
Mostly Clear
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 11
*
Cedar Rapids
Mostly Clear
Temperature 22
Wind Chill 7
*
Sioux City
Mostly Clear
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 12
*
Waterloo
Partly Cloudy
Temperature 20
Wind Chill 5
*
Ottumwa
Partly Cloudy
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 11
*
Mason City
Temperature 20
Wind Chill 5
*
Fort Dodge
Temperature 22
Wind Chill 7
*
Atlantic
Temperature 28
Wind Chill 14

Making news today:

Granite State gridlock at the top of the polls

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Two days from now, we’ll shift our sights from Iowa to another deadlocked contest in an icy state – the New Hampshire primary, where voters weigh in January 8. And just as Iowa’s outcome seemed to get less, not more, certain as the caucuses drew closer, the presidential race in New Hampshire is now tighter than ever, according to a new CNN/WMUR survey.

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, finds Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney tied for first place, with 29 percent each – a huge comeback for the Arizona senator, who was written off by many pundits after his campaign imploded earlier in the year. Six months ago, he placed fourth in the same poll, with support just barely in double digits.

Rounding out the third and fourth spot in the new poll are Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, who receive 12 and 10 percent support, respectively, from GOP primary voters.

The Democratic primary race is also neck-and-neck: Hillary Clinton has a statistically insignificant 4-point edge over Barack Obama, 34 percent to 30 percent. John Edwards is in third place with 17 percent.

But roughly one out of every four voters in either party say they won’t make a decision until Election Day. And since Hawkeye State returns often help shift the tone in New Hampshire, the impact of tomorrow’s Iowa results may be felt at Granite State polls on Tuesday.

So here’s Iowa by the numbers: roughly $40 million in television ads, thousands of volunteer man-hours, more than two years of campaigning – and one more day.

(And if you’re on the campaign trail in the Hawkeye State today, here are a few more important numbers to keep in mind, thanks to CNN’s Weather Team: the high will be around 10 degrees in eastern Iowa and 20 degrees in the western part of the state during the day, with a wind chill advisory in effect for northern areas through early Wednesday morning. At night, the low will range from a bone-chilling 5 below in the eastern part of the state, to the relatively balmy 10 above further west.)

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

With the Iowa caucuses only two days away, CNN will offer extensive coverage of the 2008 presidential contest all day. CNN correspondents are traveling with the Republican and Democratic candidates throughout Iowa and New Hampshire, and will provide live reports from the campaign trail. In addition, viewers will be able to hear directly from the candidates on the pressing issues of the day. The “Ballot Bowl” will air from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, and will be followed by three hours of “The Situation Room.”

Making news today:

No safe leads in the Hawkeye State

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Caucus-day logistics are starting to dominate campaign discussion; conference calls and ‘internal’ memos are more focused on precinct captains than policy, on second-choice caucus votes than old Senate positions. Not exactly heart-racing stuff, but Iowa is all about the details now, and history tells us the future course of the nation could well be shaped by something as simple as early-January Midwestern weather patterns. (Current forecast: clear and windy, and - naturally - cold.)

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out this morning has Clinton and Obama virtually tied for the lead in Iowa: Clinton is at 33 percent, Obama is at 31 percent, and Edwards trails with 22 percent. Iowa polling is notoriously difficult. Meanwhile, Barack Obama’s campaign is crowing over the Des Moines Register’s new poll, which has the Illinois senator at 32 percent in the Hawkeye State, followed by Hillary Clinton at 25 percent and John Edwards at 24 percent.

On the Republican side, CNN’s new Iowa poll finds the race a virtual tie at the top, with Mitt Romney at 31 percent, and Mike Huckabee at 28 percent. Fred Thompson is at 13 percent, followed by John McCain at 10 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul each are tied at 8 percent. But Mike Huckabee holds on to the lead in the Des Moines Register’s poll with 32 percent, followed by Romney with 26 percent, and John McCain – who hasn’t set foot in Iowa since last week – is at 13 percent.

It’s a nail-biter to the end – with more than enough undecided voters in the mix for any number of election night outcomes.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:The gloves are (still) off

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Just how brutal has the presidential campaign gotten? Here's one sign: John Edwards - who has been on the receiving end of a week's worth of verbal blows from rival Barack Obama - is now suggesting the Illinois senator of being too "nice" to be president.

Here's another: Mike Huckabee is demanding an apology from rival Mitt Romney after weeks of being on the receiving end of negative attacks. Huckabee is also insisting that the former Massachusetts governor admit he lied about his own record, too.

And John McCain may have said publicly he's "moving on" from his weekend of dueling attack ads with Romney ­– but his new Granite State spot, which calls his fellow New Hampshire rival out by name, seems to say something else entirely.

Even Rudy Giuliani, who has called for an end to the worst of the back-and-forth from his perch above the fray (and out of the running in Iowa) is signaling his willingness to wade into the mud if necessary. On Sunday, he invoked the now universally-observed amendment to Ronald Reagan's eleventh commandment: "Don't criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me."

The former New York City mayor is spending Monday in the safety of his hometown, and McCain is off riding his new surge back east in New Hampshire, but the rest of the presidential field is spending the day on the main battlefield here in the Hawkeye State.

– - CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today...

Pakistan and politics on the trail

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Much of Thursday’s campaign coverage gave way to non-stop reporting on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto — but that didn’t seem to take much of the edge off the rough-and-tumble of the race.

One of Barack Obama’s senior strategists, David Axelrod, made remarks – which he later seemed to back away from - that appeared to link the former Pakistani prime minister’s death with Hillary Clinton’s vote on the Iraq war. Joe Biden took a swipe at fellow Democrat Bill Richardson for calling on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to step down. (Richardson is planning a “major speech” on the crisis today in Des Moines). John McCain said he didn’t see how Rudy Giuliani’s post-9/11 experience as mayor of New York “provides one the credentials to address national security issues.” Mitt Romney downplayed the value of McCain’s own national security expertise.

And Mike Huckabee revived the ghost of his almost-forgotten NIE misstep when he seemed to imply Pakistan was still under martial law – which hasn’t been the case for two weeks. (He later said he had known of the change.)

With the huge international news yesterday, a few recent campaign developments fell a bit under the radar. Take the ad wars: After cutting back his spending in the Boston media market that serves a slice of southern New Hampshire, Giuliani has now apparently abandoned the pricey media market entirely. It’s now looking almost certain that he and McCain – who was just crowned the new Republican favorite by Robert Novak – won’t be airing any spots in Iowa before caucus night. And they’ve now been joined on the sidelines by Fred Thompson, who is – at least for the moment – off the air in the Hawkeye State.

Meanwhile, Giuliani’s new 9/11-themed spot – which liberally uses images of New York firefighters, some of whom are actively opposing his presidential bid – would have been a sure headline-grabber any other day.

In the Democratic contest, Obama gave his big close in Iowa. Today, it’s John Edwards’ turn, in a speech that takes direct aim at some of the Illinois senator’s main campaign themes.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today...

Obama's closing argument

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Iowa voters deliver their final verdict in just a week, and candidates are busy making their closing arguments. Today, it’s Barack Obama’s turn.

After tangling with John Edwards for most of last weekend, the Illinois senator spent his first day of post-Christmas campaigning taking jabs of a slightly more subtle nature at national frontrunner Hillary Clinton, and Clinton White House years. (If you weren’t listening closely, you might have missed them – but Phil Singer didn’t.) Obama’s big speech is scheduled for this morning in Des Moines.

Democrats are sticking to the Hawkeye State, and so is most of the Republican field - but for the second day in a row, there are a few notable exceptions. Rudy Giuliani is stumping in Florida again. Mike Huckabee also starts the day in the Sunshine State, before winding up back in Iowa.

And Mitt Romney - still recovering from his second Granite State newspaper “anti-endorsement” in less than a week - is meeting with voters in New Hampshire again today: the state is more vital than ever to his campaign, now that an Iowa victory looks less certain than it did just a few short weeks ago.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand