Michigan weighs in:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Finally, after days of verbal warfare on the trail in Michigan, comes a late appearance by the most-feared campaign force of all: the mighty snowflake.

Michigan is set to receive a few inches of snow today - no blizzard, but perhaps enough to dampen turnout slightly this Election Day.

Who benefits from the wintry gift? Republican Mitt Romney's polling better among those who've sent in absentee ballots than people making last-minute decisions - who tend to be less-motivated to head to the polls. So if anyone in the Republican presidential field gets a slight boost from inclement weather, it could be the former Massachusetts governor. And in a race this tight - most recent polls show Romney and rival John McCain statistically tied - any edge is welcome.

Democrat Hillary Clinton is the only major contender on her party's ballot in Michigan - but that doesn't make the choice any easier for the state's Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Do they cast their ballots for Clinton in what is, essentially, a meaningless contest? Do they vote, as some John Edwards and Barack Obama supporters have urged, for the "uncommitted" option on the ballot, potentially forcing a convention compromise (assuming the eventual nominee and national party allows the state's delegation to be seated after all)?

Do they vote in the Republican primary instead of their own - a move that helped lift McCain, who's still their favorite in the GOP field, to a victory back in 2000? Or do they follow the advice of Markos Moulitsas and other activists who've urged them to support Mitt Romney in an attempt to, in his opinion, sabotage his party's general election chances?

Look for the answers to those questions tonight on CNN's Special Election Coverage, and at cnnpolitics.com.
Most of the polls in Michigan close by 8 p.m. ET, though a few western counties will be open until 9 p.m. ET.

The presidential contest goes national

WASHINGTON (CNN) — The presidential race is definitely national now, as the remaining candidates fan out today in five states.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are safely on opposite sides of the country. He hits the campaign trail in Nevada and she spends time at a Martin Luther King Day event in New York after a weekend filled with fallout over her comments on the slain civil rights leader and a heated back-and-forth with the Obama campaign.

Meanwhile, the top three Republicans in the Michigan primary contest spend the day in much closer proximity, brushing past one another as they race across the state in the final hours before Tuesday's vote. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney – who spent Sunday tangling over taxes – visit the Detroit Auto Show within a few short hours of each other, and John McCain hits five cities in a bid to get an edge, after two polls showed a tight race in Michigan.

In the state’s Democratic primary race – where most of the field doesn’t even appear on the ballot – Hillary Clinton currently leads “uncommitted,” 56 percent to 30 percent in the Detroit Free Press poll released this weekend. Supporters of John Edwards and Barack Obama have been urged to vote “uncommitted”– a move that could create an unexpected headache for the Clinton campaign.

The question of the day: Which will be the bigger factor in tomorrow’s Michigan vote – evangelicals mobilizing for Huckabee, or the expected deluge of crossover voters? 

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today

WASHINGTON (CNN) — With last night’s South Carolina face-off behind them, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are once again fighting over an early-voting Midwestern state.

This time, it’s Michigan, where both men are spending the day – and where post-New Hampshire surveys have found the GOP primary has turned into a three-way race, between Romney, Huckabee, and John McCain.

Thanks to overwhelming evangelical support, Huckabee’s bare-bones campaign trumped Romney’s cash-rich effort in Iowa. Romney’s vowed to make his next stand in Michigan, and has poured millions into the state.

But pro-Huckabee organizer Gary Glenn says he has a “top-tier” email list of 600 activists working on the former Arkansas governor’s behalf in the state, and putting their rolodexes to work for him, too. Is the lowly address book mightier than the major ad buy? The answer comes in less than a week.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — It’s all about South Carolina today, where GOP voters head to the polls in a little more than a week for the first of the state’s two presidential primaries.

Before the New Hampshire primary, Barack Obama was leading Hillary Clinton, and Mike Huckabee was leading John McCain and Mitt Romney, by double-digit margins in most recent Palmetto State polls. But with no post-New Hampshire numbers for guidance, the terrain is a bit tricky.

Rudy Giuliani is already looking past the state's January 19 primary, setting up shop in Florida and focusing his efforts on that state's January 29 primary.

Others are staking everything on their South Carolina Alamo: Fred Thompson has moved his entire campaign here, lock stock and barrel. (If that alone doesn’t say “last stand,” the pay cuts some of his staffers are taking to work the South Carolina effort speaks for itself.)

And John McCain, fresh off his New Hampshire triumph, is making a serious play for territory that served as his Waterloo eight years ago – and still planning to spend enough time in Michigan to once again make Mitt Romney’s life a lot more complicated.

All of them end the day in Myrtle Beach, at the Republican presidential primary debate.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

The Democratic presidential field will get smaller today, as Bill Richardson is expected to abandon his bid for the White House. And Michael Bloomberg is still considering jumping into the race. Political Ticker

Making news today

Manchester was a distant memory for most of the presidential field before the first edition of the Union-Leader hit the newsstands this morning; the rest will be gone by lunchtime.

New Hampshire changed nothing, and it changed everything. The race is still as wide-open this morning as it was before yesterday’s vote. But the differences dominate headlines this morning: John McCain’s effort, once on life support, is looking healthier than many of his main GOP opponents. And Hillary Clinton’s campaign obit, and Barack Obama’s seemingly-unstoppable momentum, both feature newly-minted question marks.

After traveling in a pack from Des Moines to Manchester, the candidates spread out across the country now as the race goes national. South Carolina is one of the next big prizes on the calendar, and John Edwards and Mike Huckabee are joining Fred Thompson there today. But Rudy Giuliani, who released a Spanish-language ad yesterday, is in Florida. Mitt Romney and John McCain are focused on Michigan, where the Arizona senator is again looking to steal a win despite Romney’s theoretical home-field advantage, and the former Massachusetts governor is still seeking his first primary win. And Barack Obama visits the heart of Clinton country, stumping in Jersey City – just minutes from New York City, and his main rival herself – before swinging into Manhattan to pick up some serious campaign cash.

The Culinary workers are set to announce their presidential pick this morning at 11 a.m. PT; Barack Obama is the rumored choice (or at least: he was, before the polls closed.)

Meanwhile: we’re more pleased than you can imagine to announce that the campaign trail forecast in the Palmetto State today is a balmy 73 degrees in Columbia.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

PRIMARY DAY!

After months of political ads and hundreds of visits from presidential hopefuls, New Hampshire voters finally head to the polls today. Already, the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, located in the far northern reaches of the state, has weighed in.

And the winners there are Barack Obama and John McCain.

The candidates have spent the past four days criss-crossing the state, and there has been a lot of talk about change, as candidates from both sides of the aisle jump on the campaign trail's latest buzzword:

After a late-night flight from Iowa, Mitt Romney stepped off the airplane here Friday with a retooled stump speech in his back pocket, and hope that more than a year’s worth of organizing would help deliver him a much-needed victory in the Granite State.

Campaign commercials reach a fever pitch in New Hampshire

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is leading the Democratic pack in the state, according to a CNN-WMUR poll out Monday followed by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov.Mitt Romney by a narrow margin the survey found. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney — passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Making news today:

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, spent his Saturday looking for the Obama bounce. Yesterday, it found him.

Barack Obama has a 10-point edge over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire in the CNN/WMUR poll released Sunday afternoon, with 39 percent support to Clinton’s 29 percent. John Edwards has slipped to 16 percent. The apparent Obama surge seems to be sapping support from Clinton and Edwards, both down several points from the last CNN poll.

The electability issue is now officially a non-starter for the Clinton campaign: 42 percent of those primary voters now say Obama has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee. Even more troubling for the New York senator, two out of three Democrats – a new high — now say the ability to bring change is more important than experience.

That isn’t true on the Republican side, where part of John McCain’s edge over rival Mitt Romney arises from the fact that 40 percent of Granite State GOP voters say he’s got the right experience to be president, as opposed to 26 percent for the former Massachusetts governor. McCain now leads Romney among primary voters, 32 to 26 percent. Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul follow at 14, 11, and 10 percent.

One of the other major factors in McCain’s rise is the growing numbers of independents who now say they’ll be voting in the Republican primary. It’s a development that should have been bad news for Obama, but isn’t – a result that underscores Obama’s new strength.

If there’s a secret to stemming his momentum here, his opponents have just a day left to find it.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:

It isn’t just that Barack Obama won Iowa decisively last night over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. It’s the way he won: by beating his opponents across a stunning demographic spectrum.

Obama won Democrats, Republicans and independents; men and women; and virtually every income bracket. People most worried about the Iraq war gave him their vote. So did voters most concerned about the state of the economy. And those whose top priority is fixing the nation’s health care system.

Among Republicans, Huckabee pulled off a similar showing. As expected, he won among evangelicals. But he also scored big with voters in every income bracket except for those earning over $100,000 a year, and among every age group.

The big questions as the campaigns descend on New Hampshire this morning: Can Obama convert his Iowa win into a similarly dominant Granite State showing? And we now know how Huckabee fares in a state where more than half the voters are evangelical. Can he make a similar showing in less-pious climes?
.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

For the full caucus post-mortem, check out today’s analysis from CNN’s Mark Preston and Alan Silverleib at cnnpolitics.com

Making news today:

NEW YORK (CNN) — As the sun rises on caucus day, the only thing we know for sure is that by late tonight the candidates, the campaigns and the national press corps will have left the Hawkeye State, en route to their new Manchester stomping grounds.

Just about everything else in this wide-open race is up for debate.

Traditionally, there are three tickets out of Iowa – candidates who can win, place or show have a good case for continuing on to the New Hampshire primary. But in this unpredictable 2008 election cycle, we may see even more heading to the Granite State with a legitimate shot at the nomination.

In the meantime, here’s a couple of those questions in the air in downtown Des Moines this morning:

– Will evangelical turnout crack the 50 percent mark, as one senior Mitt Romney aide fretted to the Boston Globe yesterday? Or…

– Will the barrage of negative attacks that have helped pull Mike Huckabee’s poll numbers down from their high-water mark end up costing him the race?
(Related query: how will the drama surrounding Huckabee’s own campaign
spots — the religious appeals both overt and otherwise, the famously
cancelled anti-Romney spot – play with the base?)

– Will this be the year first-time voters finally make their presence felt on caucus night? Or will Hillary Clinton’s edge with older women voters prove to be the only margin that really matters?

– And: which is the most important number to keep in mind tonight (other than the actual results)?

Is it: 5,000? (the number of volunteer drivers the Clinton campaign has on standby to ferry stranded and elderly voters to their precinct caucuses.)
22,000? (the number of GOTV phone calls the Romney campaign made yesterday.)
Or maybe: 25? (the expected temperature in Sioux City, Iowa this evening, according to CNN’s Weather Team.)

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Here’s your final Iowa campaign trail weather report:

Des Moines
Mostly Clear
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 11
*
Cedar Rapids
Mostly Clear
Temperature 22
Wind Chill 7
*
Sioux City
Mostly Clear
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 12
*
Waterloo
Partly Cloudy
Temperature 20
Wind Chill 5
*
Ottumwa
Partly Cloudy
Temperature 25
Wind Chill 11
*
Mason City
Temperature 20
Wind Chill 5
*
Fort Dodge
Temperature 22
Wind Chill 7
*
Atlantic
Temperature 28
Wind Chill 14

Making news today:

Granite State gridlock at the top of the polls

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Two days from now, we’ll shift our sights from Iowa to another deadlocked contest in an icy state – the New Hampshire primary, where voters weigh in January 8. And just as Iowa’s outcome seemed to get less, not more, certain as the caucuses drew closer, the presidential race in New Hampshire is now tighter than ever, according to a new CNN/WMUR survey.

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, finds Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney tied for first place, with 29 percent each – a huge comeback for the Arizona senator, who was written off by many pundits after his campaign imploded earlier in the year. Six months ago, he placed fourth in the same poll, with support just barely in double digits.

Rounding out the third and fourth spot in the new poll are Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, who receive 12 and 10 percent support, respectively, from GOP primary voters.

The Democratic primary race is also neck-and-neck: Hillary Clinton has a statistically insignificant 4-point edge over Barack Obama, 34 percent to 30 percent. John Edwards is in third place with 17 percent.

But roughly one out of every four voters in either party say they won’t make a decision until Election Day. And since Hawkeye State returns often help shift the tone in New Hampshire, the impact of tomorrow’s Iowa results may be felt at Granite State polls on Tuesday.

So here’s Iowa by the numbers: roughly $40 million in television ads, thousands of volunteer man-hours, more than two years of campaigning – and one more day.

(And if you’re on the campaign trail in the Hawkeye State today, here are a few more important numbers to keep in mind, thanks to CNN’s Weather Team: the high will be around 10 degrees in eastern Iowa and 20 degrees in the western part of the state during the day, with a wind chill advisory in effect for northern areas through early Wednesday morning. At night, the low will range from a bone-chilling 5 below in the eastern part of the state, to the relatively balmy 10 above further west.)

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

With the Iowa caucuses only two days away, CNN will offer extensive coverage of the 2008 presidential contest all day. CNN correspondents are traveling with the Republican and Democratic candidates throughout Iowa and New Hampshire, and will provide live reports from the campaign trail. In addition, viewers will be able to hear directly from the candidates on the pressing issues of the day. The “Ballot Bowl” will air from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, and will be followed by three hours of “The Situation Room.”

Making news today:

No safe leads in the Hawkeye State

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Caucus-day logistics are starting to dominate campaign discussion; conference calls and ‘internal’ memos are more focused on precinct captains than policy, on second-choice caucus votes than old Senate positions. Not exactly heart-racing stuff, but Iowa is all about the details now, and history tells us the future course of the nation could well be shaped by something as simple as early-January Midwestern weather patterns. (Current forecast: clear and windy, and — naturally — cold.)

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out this morning has Clinton and Obama virtually tied for the lead in Iowa: Clinton is at 33 percent, Obama is at 31 percent, and Edwards trails with 22 percent. Iowa polling is notoriously difficult. Meanwhile, Barack Obama’s campaign is crowing over the Des Moines Register’s new poll, which has the Illinois senator at 32 percent in the Hawkeye State, followed by Hillary Clinton at 25 percent and John Edwards at 24 percent.

On the Republican side, CNN’s new Iowa poll finds the race a virtual tie at the top, with Mitt Romney at 31 percent, and Mike Huckabee at 28 percent. Fred Thompson is at 13 percent, followed by John McCain at 10 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul each are tied at 8 percent. But Mike Huckabee holds on to the lead in the Des Moines Register’s poll with 32 percent, followed by Romney with 26 percent, and John McCain – who hasn’t set foot in Iowa since last week – is at 13 percent.

It’s a nail-biter to the end – with more than enough undecided voters in the mix for any number of election night outcomes.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today:The gloves are (still) off

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Just how brutal has the presidential campaign gotten? Here's one sign: John Edwards — who has been on the receiving end of a week's worth of verbal blows from rival Barack Obama — is now suggesting the Illinois senator of being too "nice" to be president.

Here's another: Mike Huckabee is demanding an apology from rival Mitt Romney after weeks of being on the receiving end of negative attacks. Huckabee is also insisting that the former Massachusetts governor admit he lied about his own record, too.

And John McCain may have said publicly he's "moving on" from his weekend of dueling attack ads with Romney ­– but his new Granite State spot, which calls his fellow New Hampshire rival out by name, seems to say something else entirely.

Even Rudy Giuliani, who has called for an end to the worst of the back-and-forth from his perch above the fray (and out of the running in Iowa) is signaling his willingness to wade into the mud if necessary. On Sunday, he invoked the now universally-observed amendment to Ronald Reagan's eleventh commandment: "Don't criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me."

The former New York City mayor is spending Monday in the safety of his hometown, and McCain is off riding his new surge back east in New Hampshire, but the rest of the presidential field is spending the day on the main battlefield here in the Hawkeye State.

– — CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today…

Pakistan and politics on the trail

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Much of Thursday’s campaign coverage gave way to non-stop reporting on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto — but that didn’t seem to take much of the edge off the rough-and-tumble of the race.

One of Barack Obama’s senior strategists, David Axelrod, made remarks – which he later seemed to back away from — that appeared to link the former Pakistani prime minister’s death with Hillary Clinton’s vote on the Iraq war. Joe Biden took a swipe at fellow Democrat Bill Richardson for calling on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to step down. (Richardson is planning a “major speech” on the crisis today in Des Moines). John McCain said he didn’t see how Rudy Giuliani’s post-9/11 experience as mayor of New York “provides one the credentials to address national security issues.” Mitt Romney downplayed the value of McCain’s own national security expertise.

And Mike Huckabee revived the ghost of his almost-forgotten NIE misstep when he seemed to imply Pakistan was still under martial law – which hasn’t been the case for two weeks. (He later said he had known of the change.)

With the huge international news yesterday, a few recent campaign developments fell a bit under the radar. Take the ad wars: After cutting back his spending in the Boston media market that serves a slice of southern New Hampshire, Giuliani has now apparently abandoned the pricey media market entirely. It’s now looking almost certain that he and McCain – who was just crowned the new Republican favorite by Robert Novak – won’t be airing any spots in Iowa before caucus night. And they’ve now been joined on the sidelines by Fred Thompson, who is – at least for the moment – off the air in the Hawkeye State.

Meanwhile, Giuliani’s new 9/11-themed spot – which liberally uses images of New York firefighters, some of whom are actively opposing his presidential bid – would have been a sure headline-grabber any other day.

In the Democratic contest, Obama gave his big close in Iowa. Today, it’s John Edwards’ turn, in a speech that takes direct aim at some of the Illinois senator’s main campaign themes.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand

Making news today…

Obama's closing argument

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Iowa voters deliver their final verdict in just a week, and candidates are busy making their closing arguments. Today, it’s Barack Obama’s turn.

After tangling with John Edwards for most of last weekend, the Illinois senator spent his first day of post-Christmas campaigning taking jabs of a slightly more subtle nature at national frontrunner Hillary Clinton, and Clinton White House years. (If you weren’t listening closely, you might have missed them – but Phil Singer didn’t.) Obama’s big speech is scheduled for this morning in Des Moines.

Democrats are sticking to the Hawkeye State, and so is most of the Republican field — but for the second day in a row, there are a few notable exceptions. Rudy Giuliani is stumping in Florida again. Mike Huckabee also starts the day in the Sunshine State, before winding up back in Iowa.

And Mitt Romney — still recovering from his second Granite State newspaper “anti-endorsement” in less than a week — is meeting with voters in New Hampshire again today: the state is more vital than ever to his campaign, now that an Iowa victory looks less certain than it did just a few short weeks ago.

– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand