March 4th, 2008
07:13 PM ET
10 years ago

Schneider: Why Obama won Vermont

(CNN) – Barack Obama is headed for an easy victory in Vermont, fueled by overwhelming victories among voting blocs that have solidly aligned with Hillary Clinton in other states.

Though women voters and seniors are the backbone of Clinton's support, in Vermont more than two-thirds of women, and roughly 60 percent of voters age 65 and higher, went for Obama.

One of the key reasons this groups went for Obama? The Iraq war. While the issue has fallen in importance among voters in several other states, Vermont voters ranked it nearly as important as the economy, and those who said it was the number one issue went for Obama over Clinton by nearly 3 to 1.

Obama often touts the fact he was initially opposed to the Iraq war while Clinton voted to authorize it. He has consistently beaten Clinton among voters concerned about Iraq - and in Vermont, this gap clearly proved decisive.

Related Video: Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser analyzes Tuesday's primaries

- CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Candidate Barack Obama • Vermont
March 4th, 2008
07:01 PM ET
10 years ago

CNN projects Obama wins Vermont Democratic primary

Track county-by-county results here.

Filed under: Vermont
March 4th, 2008
07:00 PM ET
10 years ago

CNN projects McCain wins Vermont GOP primary

Track county-by-county results here.

Filed under: Vermont
March 4th, 2008
04:28 PM ET
6 years ago

Schneider: What I'm looking for tonight

NEW YORK (CNN) - It's certain to be long night, but here are some early indicators I'll be keeping my eye on as the first wave of exit polls roll into the CNN Election Center.

The gender gap:
The bigger it is, the more it helps Hillary Clinton. She needs to do well with women voters tonight in order to carry Ohio and Texas. In nine Super Tuesday primary states Clinton won, men were split, but nearly 60 percent of women voters supported the New York senator. In seven states Obama won that night, the Illinois senator beat Clinton among both men and women.

Young voters
Much attention has been focused on Obama's ability to rally young voters. The number of these voters that showed up to vote and the proportion that break for Obama will be key to his chances of winning tonight. Senior voters have always been a backbone of support for Clinton, and will likely continue to be so today. In many of the states Obama has won, the youth vote has been heavy and has broken for him better than 2 to 1.

Minority turnout
Minority turnout will be crucial, but which minority? African-American voters have solidly aligned themselves behind Obama, and Latinos have usually supported Clinton. This means Obama has had the edge in states where African-American voters make up a significant proportion of the electorate while Clinton has had the advantage in states where Latinos do so. But Texas has both a heavy African-American population and a heavy Latino population. Whichever group has a higher turnout could be key to who wins the state.

Union workers
Whichever candidate wins among union voters in Ohio could very well carry the state. Even though several major unions in Ohio - like the Teamsters and the Service Workers and the Food and Commercial Workers - have endorsed Obama, the Nevada caucuses proved that union voters don't necessarily vote the way their leaders tell them to. Clinton is banking on strong support from this demographic to help her win tonight.

How much of a role will they play? Independent voters are allowed to vote in all four states today. In the past, these voters have strongly favored Obama. Will their turnout be high enough to tip the scales toward the Illinois senator tonight?

Republicans are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary in Texas. Some conservative commentators, like Rush Limbaugh, are urging them to vote for Hillary Clinton just to keep the Democratic race going. The idea that large numbers of Republicans will vote for Clinton just to make trouble for the Democrats seems unlikely. But lots of unlikely things have happened this year.

Watch Bill Schneider break down the demographics of the March 4 primaries

Related: CNN's Ed Lavandera reports on early Texas voting

–CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

Filed under: Bill Schneider • Ohio • Rhode Island • Texas • Vermont
August 23rd, 2007
08:55 AM ET
11 years ago

President Bush's forgotten state?

Watch CNN's John King report on Bush's forgotten state.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Vermont is a picture perfect place - its rivers and mountains and covered bridges are a draw to some 10 million visitors a year.

Yet, the Green Mountain State is the forgotten place in the crowded travelogue of President Bush - the only state he has failed to visit in his presidency.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders - a self described socialist - is a fierce Bush critic whether the issue is the Iraq war, the economy, or climate change. Callers to his office, Sanders says, often demand that the president be impeached.

But Sanders all but dares Bush to visit, saying he would benefit from sitting down with his critics. His Senate Web site even displays a banner with the headline "Bush stays away from Vermont."

"If he comes up in the fall – he can see the changing of the leaves,” Sanders told CNN. β€œHe'll have a good visit.”

"[He] might be able to learn something," he added. "This president will probably go down in history as the least popular president in history of this country - he should go forward and find out why that is so."


Filed under: President Bush • Vermont
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