WASHINGTON (CNN) – Polls in five key battleground states in the race for the White House released Tuesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making major gains.
The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls of likely voters in Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin reflect a significant nationwide shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.
In Indiana, 51 percent of likely voters say Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, is their choice for president, with 46 percent backing Obama. Indiana went for George W. Bush by 21 points four years ago; the Democrats have not carried the state since 1964.
Obama has made significant strides in New Hampshire, a state which is credited with reviving McCain’s GOP primary campaign in both 2000 and 2008. Fifty-three percent of the state’s likely voters are backing Obama, while 45 percent are supporting McCain. Obama’s eight-point lead is larger than the five-point lead held by Obama in the last CNN New Hampshire poll taken in the beginning of September.
Bush squeezed out a slender one-point win in the state in 2000 - but four years ago, John Kerry narrowly carried the one-time GOP stronghold.
ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Barack Obama may be inching closer to the magic number of 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House, according to the most recent update to CNN’s electoral map.
Based in part on newly released public opinion surveys, CNN has now re-classified the states of Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Iowa (7 electoral votes) as states leaning in favor of Obama. Both states were previously categorized as toss-ups. If the election were held today, CNN currently projects that Obama would carry 19 states and the District of Columbia, for a combined total of 243 electoral votes. McCain would carry 23 states worth a combined total of 189 electoral votes.
Eight states worth a combined 106 electoral votes remain in CNN’s tossup column.
“Iowa and Minnesota look good for Obama at this point in time. He is winning whites with no college degree in Iowa and splitting them evenly with John McCain in Minnesota," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But today's polls don't reflect any boost McCain might get from his convention, because nearly all the interviews were done before the festivities started in St. Paul. This could be Obama’s high-water mark in those states.”
Four years ago, George W. Bush carried Iowa by less than one percentage point; John Kerry won Minnesota by less than four points. The last Republican to carry Minnesota in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972.
Obama won both the Iowa and the Minnesota Democratic caucuses this year. McCain finished fourth in Iowa’s GOP caucuses and second in Minnesota’s GOP caucuses.
The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists.
ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Roughly nine weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll of polls shows Barack Obama holding a five point lead over John McCain. Only four days after Obama’s acceptance speech and three days after McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is now ahead of McCain, 49 to 44 percent.
CNN’s previous poll of polls, released August 24, showed Obama leading McCain by four points, 46 to 42 percent.
“Any bounce Obama might have received out of his party’s convention appears to have largely negated by McCain’s surprise selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate,” said CNN Political Editor Mark Preston. “This race has been close all along, and is unlikely to change.”
The three polls included in CNN’s latest national survey average were conducted by CBS, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, and Gallup. They were each conducted from August 29 to 31. The poll of polls does not have a margin of error.
(CNN) – How do voters feel about the two major-party presidential candidates this year?
As the marathon 2008 campaign for the White House enters its final four months, a solid majority views both Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain favorably. At the same time, a majority of voters also believes both men are flip-floppers who will change their opinions for political reasons. Voters are also skeptical that either man will be able to end the partisan gridlock in Washington.
According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, 63 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 59 percent have a favorable opinion of McCain. Roughly one-third of voters hold a negative view of both candidates.
Compared to President Bush, whose approval ratings continue to hover around 30 percent, both candidates are seen in a remarkably positive light. Judged against the favorable ratings of past presidential nominees at this stage of the campaign, however, Obama and McCain are registering typical favorability numbers.
"In previous elections we have often seen both candidates get favorable ratings over 50 percent at this stage," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In mid-summer, both parties tend to be unified behind their candidates but the negative ads have generally not yet started."
The poll also shows both candidates improving on their perceived weak points.