October 1st, 2007
11:22 AM ET
7 years ago

New Iowa polls show key state up for grabs

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Clinton and Obama each hold leads in new Iowa polls.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Three months before Iowa voters officially kick off the 2008 presidential primary process, new polls released this weekend indicate the Hawkeye State is up for grabs in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, holds a 6 percentage point edge (30-24 percent) over Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, in the latest American Research Group (ARG) poll, while Obama edges out Clinton by four points in a Newsweek poll (28-24 percent).

Meanwhile, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a close third in both polls - registering 19 percent in the ARG poll and 22 percent in the Newsweek poll. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson places fourth in both surveys with 10 percent. Every other Democratic White House hopeful registered single digits in both polls.

Both polls surveyed likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers. The ARG poll, conducted between September 26-29, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Newsweek poll, conducted between September 26-27, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points. (Newsweek also surveyed all Iowa Democrats - in that poll Clinton leads Obama 31 to 25 percent.)

Why do the latest Iowa surveys report such different conclusions? CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explains polling in the early-voting state "can be the statistical equivalent of looking for a needle in a haystack."

"Typically, only about 100,000 people participate in caucuses out of a population of roughly 3 million in the state," Holland said. "It's what makes the Iowa caucuses inherently unpredictable - and it's not surprising to find polls that show different results."

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • Presidential Candidates