August 14th, 2007
01:11 PM ET
15 years ago

Giuliani on top in two new national polls

Rudy is No. 1 in two new national polls.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Two new national polls released Tuesday indicate former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the field of Republican White House hopefuls, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has gained ground in both polls.

Giuliani leads Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson by at least ten points in both surveys.

A CBS News poll conducted August 8-12 has Giuliani on top with 38 percent, followed by Thompson at 18 percent and Romney with 13 percent. Thompson dropped seven percentage points since last month while Romney gained five percentage points in that same time. The number of Republicans who say they are satisfied with their candidate choices has increased 16 percent since June, a finding that may account for Romney's uptick in support and Thompson's decline.

"It's possible that Thompson's delay in officially announcing his candidacy has given Romney the opportunity to get a second look from Republicans, and perhaps some of them are starting to like what they see," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The CBS News Poll surveyed 302 Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points.

In a separate poll conducted August 9-12 by American Research Group (ARG), Romney gained six percentage points since July to tie Thompson for second place at 16 percent. Both trail Giuliani who tops the poll with 27 percent.

But The ARG poll shows Giuliani's support dropping slightly, while the CBS Poll shows the former New York City mayor gaining ground. The difference between the two polls may be due to Newt Gingrich, who was included in the ARG poll but not in the CBS survey. That difference makes it difficult to directly compare the two surveys. Since Gingrich has not entered the race, the CBS poll may be a better indication of the current state of the GOP race.

The vast majority of interviews for both surveys were conducted before Romney won Saturday's Iowa Straw Poll, so it's unlikely that his win influenced the results.

Yet even with his gains, Romney and the rest of the field continue to stare at Giuliani's back.

"Most Republicans continue to associate Giuliani with 9/11 and his record as New York City's mayor," said Holland. "That's a positive image that the other GOP candidates will have to work hard to overcome."

The ARG poll surveyed 600 Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

- CNN Senior Political Producer Sasha Johnson

soundoff (47 Responses)
  1. Greg, Phoenix, AZ


    Giuliani doesn't need to get a "substantial" amount of Democrat votes in order to win the election.

    Any amount at all will be FAR more than the amount of Republican votes obtained by Hillary Clinton. Since Giuliani will get close to 100% of the Republican vote and at least half of the independent vote, any amount of Democratic voters would just add to his margin of victory. If you don't think that the Republican base is enough to guarantee a win, might I refer you to the last 2 presidential elections?

    New York complainers,

    To all of you who continually state that Giuliani was a horrible mayor, IT IS TIME TO FACE THE FACT THAT NO ONE BELIEVES YOU. Objective people realize that NY is HEAVILY Democrat and therefore it is no suprise that some New Yorker's would come out swinging against Giuliani. Most Americans (and I suspect a great many NY citizens) have VERY favorable opinions about Giuliani and this is reflected in the polling going on in this country.

    Given the general unrest in this country about the Iraq War, the Democratic candidates should be FAR ahead of the Republicans, however this is not the case. Giuliani is leading or within the margin of error against Clinton in all the polls and ANY political commentator would tell you this is NOT good news for the Democrats.

    August 14, 2007 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  2. VanReuter NY NY

    Speaking as a democrat, and a New Yorker I am pulling for Rudy, as he would lose the election in Dukakis-esque numbers.
    If not Rudy, certainly Ron Paul is a good choice. He too will lose in grand fashion, but he would be a lot more fun to follow than the Mayor of 9/11.


    August 14, 2007 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  3. Chuck Ladouceur Trenton Ontario Canada


    August 14, 2007 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  4. Smith

    Someone said Rudy Giuliani is the only Republican who can beat Hilary. That's funny. The Republicans cannot win if they pick someone who supports the war. The war is the #1 issue. While I'm not a supporter of Ron Paul, he is the only Republican that could challenge the Democrats come election time next year, because of his anti-war stance on par only with Kucinich.

    August 14, 2007 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  5. Barabas, Hot City, TX

    I would probably vote for Giuliani, but please stop with the meaningless polls.

    August 14, 2007 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  6. C.LyOns, New York, NY

    To all of you who continually state that Giuliani was a horrible mayor, IT IS TIME TO FACE THE FACT THAT NO ONE BELIEVES YOU. Objective people realize that NY is HEAVILY Democrat and therefore it is no suprise that some New Yorker's would come out swinging against Giuliani. Most Americans (and I suspect a great many NY citizens) have VERY favorable opinions about Giuliani and this is reflected in the polling going on in this country.

    -Look, the only reason both Rudy G and HRC are so high in the polls this early...repeat "early" simply because they are the most recognizable of the candidates thus far..particularly in Rudy's case....McCain should be doing better but his entire campaign lacks coordination. It helped Rudy alot being splatted al the television after the 9/11 attacks....most people not informed automatically go to the most familiar choices (Rudy, Hil). As the campaigns continue we all will see these leads shrink and shrink....

    If you don't think that the Republican base is enough to guarantee a win, might I refer you to the last 2 presidential elections

    Have you heard of a thing called gerry-mandering...yeah its when Congressional representatives who are in the majority carve up voting districts to better fit their base...during Clinton's second term there was a thing called the "Republican Revolution" (Newt Gingrich ring a bell) and this movement systematically tried to 're-design' the politcal landscape to their liking thus splitting much of the democratic votes into small districts, thus when the votes are know the rest...we saw last November that it won't matter people are sick of the GOPs tactics and the way the have mislead the country for almost 12 years now...democratic votes will NOT go to Republicans this time around.....

    August 14, 2007 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  7. Greg, Phoenix, AZ


    While the Iraq War is certainly an important issue in the presidential election, it is not the most important issue to most Americans. The most important issues are: 1) national security/terrorism 2) illegal immigration 3) healthcare.

    While many Americans are tired of the war, most understand why we can't just leave the Iraqi citizens high and dry. The anti-war left represents a relatively low % of Americans (although a very high one on this site no doubt) and has NO plan for how to best deal with the situation.

    August 14, 2007 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  8. Scott Clark, Salt Lake City, Utah

    A president should not just be a "strong" & wise leader, but also someone worthy of emulation, an example of ethical & moral leadership –someone our children can admire. Giuliani's personal life doesn't meet this standard. This isn't France. Romney or McCain would be better choices.

    August 14, 2007 10:26 pm at 10:26 pm |
  9. Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA

    I look forward to watching Rudy, a superior lawyer and politican, kicking the overgrown and overblown [derriere] of Hillary. He will be the first GOP President for whom I've ever voted if the Democrats persist in their death wish by nominating her.

    August 14, 2007 11:03 pm at 11:03 pm |
  10. Jake, Honolulu

    Sorry folks, Rudy's not going to get the nomination. Let's remember that republican voters are CONSERVATIVE. Everyone drills Romney becaused he USED to be pro-choice (like Reagan). Rudy IS pro-choice- currently- not used to be. He's also been married three times, supports the gay agenda, and has issues with gun control; you think he's going to win the CONSERVATIVE nomination!! Sure he did great with 9/11, but the only reason he's ahead in the polls is because people recognize his name because of 9/11. The only serious contender is Romney. He's intelligent, articulate, has a long track record of success as an executive, was a governor, has a great sense of humor, is conservative (hello- he's Mormon), and even looks like a President. No one listens to Ron Paul babble, and as far as Thompson goes, is anyone else sick of Southern Presidents??? Four of the last five Presidents have been from the South! Enough already. Let's get someone in the oval office that doesn't sound like a hillbilly!!!

    August 15, 2007 02:10 am at 2:10 am |


    August 15, 2007 05:06 am at 5:06 am |
  12. Evan Esteves, Boca Raton, FL

    Greg from Phoenix...speaking as a former New Yorker who lived in New York during the Giuliani years...I think I speak for all New Yorkers and ask you to please kindly stick to what you know:

    And what you know is Arizona republican politics. You know nothing of Giuliani's divisiveness as Mayor of New York. So like I said stick to Arizona politics buddy.

    August 15, 2007 05:29 am at 5:29 am |
  13. Chicopee, MA

    In the past I have thought that Guiliani was using tough tactics for what he thought was right. His most recent comments where he said that troops cannot be pulled out of Iraq because "We don't want another Viet Nam" scare me. I wonder if he meant that Viet Nam was a failure because America left? In that case it is just disgusting, because if America had stayed, would I be standing here today writing this article? Would any of us Americans be here? So many people died, for nothing. Viet Nam was a stupid war that was obviously a mistake, that many of our top officials that were making the laws at that time admitted. He should NOT be president just for this fact that he cannot admit when something may be wrong. He is bullheaded, and we don't need anymore of that in this country.

    August 15, 2007 07:28 am at 7:28 am |
  14. Chris

    Again, why doesn't anyone ever seem able to vote in these polls? Whom might I ask are being polled? Has anyone ever been called by a major media call center to ask their opinion?

    August 15, 2007 08:42 am at 8:42 am |
  15. AL, San Francisco, CA

    In the republican kingdom of blinds, the one eye man (Giuliani) is the king!

    Sad to see that Giuliani is the best that the republicans can have to be the presidential candidate.

    He will be wiped out in the next election against Hillary Clinton, as the american people get to know more about him, his wife and former kids. As one chinese saying states, you can conquer the world only after you have conducted yourself well, and had arranged a good harmonious home environment. His disgruntled kids from prior marriages towards him, his 3rd (or 4th?) marriage, and the behavior of his current wife, show that he does not have a good moral judgement or character.

    You want him to represent america abroad, and the role model of your kids? Naaaaaaaaa

    August 15, 2007 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  16. John Thomas, Edina, MN

    Giuliani's Platform:

    1. 9/11
    2. September 11th
    3. 9-1-1
    4. Nine Eleven
    5. 9/11/2001
    6. Islamofacistkillerterroristbombbombpeople hate our freedumz
    7. 9/11

    The most hilarious part is that all Giuliani has is his exposure to 9/11–exposure being the keyword, meaning that he didn't do JACK on 9/11. Giuliani is worthless.

    August 15, 2007 11:08 am at 11:08 am |
  17. Greg, Phoenix, AZ

    Really intelligent, Al, but if you think that Giuliani will lose this election because he has been married more than once and has strained relations with some of his children I think you are failing to remember that he is running against a CLINTON for God's sake.

    Someone who stays in a sham marriage ONLY SO THEY CAN RUN FOR PRESIDENT ON THEIR HUSBAND'S LEGACY. Don't think you can top that, Al.

    August 15, 2007 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |
  18. Perry, Thomas, Dallas

    I agree somewhat with Greg in Phoenix, AZ. Rudy is capable of winning Democratic votes. Rudy IS a Democrat. He just happens to be running on the Republican ticket.

    August 15, 2007 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  19. Ryan, New York, NY

    Greg in Phoenix,
    As a New York complainer, I'm getting to the point that I could care less if people believe me. I do realize that most people don't bother to become informed on the actual facts, so it's not surprising. They pick their side and go looking for support and no matter what side you're on, you can find support.

    Like I said, with all the research that can be done about his time as mayor before 9/11, if the people of this country don't bother to heed the warnings and read about the other 7.75 years that he served as mayor, then elect him, they can sleep in the bed that they made for themselves.

    This country has a problem in that it always has to have an enemy to fight in order to feel like we're united. Islam/Arabs are the new adversary and Rudy's right there leading the war chant.

    Correct, some segments of the Arab population hated us, thus they committed terrorist acts and strive to commit more.

    Incorrect is the Rudy-supported notion that this country has done nothing to incite their acts of violence. Especially today, in 2007, following 4.5 years of a war started by lies and supported by those who wanted to jump on the anti-Arab bandwagon and attack a country whose sole link with Al-Qaeda was their ethnic and religious background.

    August 15, 2007 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  20. Roy, Pensacola FL

    Why is the main stream media is blocking or boycotting Ron Paul. I am a life long Republican. I am also an Iraqi War veteran and disabled veteran. Is this America or a conspiracy state. He is the only candidate. The rest are all the same. I can't tell the difference between Democrats and Republicans any more. I beg you please help Ron Paul save our great Republic. To me my friends and family he is our only and best hope. For our children for our future, we must have a tomorrow . The country cannot go on as is. I beseech you to more robustly cover this great American. Restorer of the Republic and possibly the last defender of the Constitution.

    August 15, 2007 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  21. HJ, Pitts, PA

    Romney..."even looks like a President." This is exactly our problem. We either cannot or will not delve any deeper than the surface; we are all about image (and the more superficial, the better we like it) and to hell with anything else. I don't want someone in office who looks and sounds like a President; I want someone with integrity, moral stamina and a strong commitment to the Constitutional values upon which this society was founded. I realize that literally NO ONE cares about these things anymore; in fact, I'm willing to bet that if Britney Spears or Paris Hilton ran for office, many bubble-headed Americans who haven't a clue as to what is at stake would throw their support behind them, thinking the whole thing a big joke. No wonder the rest of the world is hard-pressed to see us as anything other than simple-minded or foolish. We are.

    August 15, 2007 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  22. Evan Esteves, Boca Raton, FL

    I wonder if you Ron Paul supporters are going to vote for the Republican nominee when Paul loses. That would be true hypocrisy on your parts.

    August 15, 2007 08:55 pm at 8:55 pm |
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