October 7th, 2007
04:51 PM ET
13 years ago

Clinton and Romney lead latest Iowa poll

(CNN)–Senator Hillary Clinton, D-New York, is leading the pack of Democratic presidential candidates in the politically crucial state of Iowa, according to a poll of likely caucus participants released by the Des Moines Register on Sunday.

In the poll, Clinton registered 29 percent of those polled. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards, and Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, came in with 23 percent and 22 percent respectively. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson registered 8 percent support in the poll, with Sen. Joe Biden, D-Delaware, at five percent, and Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Connecticut, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio at 1 percent each.

The numbers were a significant change from the paper's last poll in May, when Clinton came in third, behind Edwards who was up top, followed by Obama in second place.

On the Republican side, there was no change from the poll in May, as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney held on to his lead with 29 percent support of those likely GOP caucus goers polled. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who formally entered the race last month, had 18 percent.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who came in second place in the Ames Iowa straw poll in August, was third in the poll at 12 percent, followed by former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani at 11 percent. They were followed by Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, at 7 percent, Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colorado, at 5 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas at 4 percent. Former Ambassador Alan Keyes had 2 percent support, followed by Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-California at 1 percent.

The Register said the Democratic survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The paper said the poll of likely Republican caucus goers had the same margin of error.

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- CNN Political Desk Editor Jamie Crawford

soundoff (15 Responses)
  1. Daniel, NY

    Internal numbers of the poll suggest Clinton's lead is solid (48% of those who have made up their mind support her), but Romney's is weaker (he is not the top-choice of those who have made up their mind, nor the top second-choice of those polled)
    Full analysis here.

    October 7, 2007 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |

    I think it is becoming quite apparent to all that the nomination of Hillary R Clinton is a fait accompli. I say this with all due respect not to disparage any of the other Democratic candidates but Mrs Clinton thus far has run a picture-perfect campaign. She has displayed strength, competency and clarity since entering the race.
    It would take a faus pas of major proportion for her to lose this nomonation.

    October 7, 2007 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  3. Lee, Mays Landing NJ

    Hillary Clinton needs to be stopped now. Republican operatives and Fox News are pulling for her because they know she is the only democrat that they have a good chance to beat in '08.

    Besides, her polics look a lot like Rudy Guiliani's except that she has more hair and a much more stable marraige history (and that's quite a statement considering Bill's history but it's nothing like Rudy's ramblings).

    October 7, 2007 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  4. Sean

    now im a clinton supporter, BUT i cant help but wonder why CNN is sooo 'clinton rules everyone else is dead'...i think its unfair

    i heard nothing from CNN when a poll came out last week with OBAMA leading in Iowa

    i hear nother from CNN about the many polls that show JOHN EDWARDS leading in Iowa

    ...whats up with that??

    October 7, 2007 09:17 pm at 9:17 pm |
  5. Frank Virginia Beach VA

    Clinton bought her position,
    Romney earned his position

    October 7, 2007 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  6. Chris, Middletown, CT

    An excellent read on our next president


    October 7, 2007 10:21 pm at 10:21 pm |
  7. Lee, Mays Landing NJ

    Mitt Romney has more personal money than Hillary and is buying it too. Hillary got her position because of name recognition and the nostalgia for the good times in this country with Bill Clinton.

    Rudy Guiliani has his position solely by virtue of happening to be mayor on that day and then being the only government official hogging the television camera for the first 2 days while Bush and Cheney were cowering somewhere in a bunker.

    Of the 3, Hillary is the most qualified on national affairs although the experience is thin. She is also the only non-republican of the 3 which means that she will not support divisive republican politics and will not support a party that has ruined and bankrupted America the past few years.

    So she is easily the best of the 3 but I sure hope the democrats are smart enough to pick someone other than Mrs. Clinton.

    October 7, 2007 10:49 pm at 10:49 pm |
  8. Ron, TX

    Just to correct a little misperception: Hillary Clinton is NOT "leading" the Iowa poll. It is a statistical tie. The margin of error is +/-5%, which pits the top 3 candidates well within striking range of each other.

    October 7, 2007 11:03 pm at 11:03 pm |
  9. laurinda,ny

    Ron in Texas..Well you better put your tv on and watch CNN because they said so last night. Don't be so ignorant.

    October 8, 2007 07:50 am at 7:50 am |
  10. Chris Matthews



    October 8, 2007 08:59 am at 8:59 am |
  11. Danny G. Boca Raton, FL

    everyone is particularly vicious today? politics is getting hotter by the minute... in one way is encouraging that so many are tlking, it is discuraging that so many are talking so divisive... Sen. Clinton to me is a great choice for Democrats, I like the way she thinks, I think Gov. Romney had an edge that made him very attractive to the republican nomination, Fred Thompson has name appeal too... so their race is far from over, I believe Obama is too idealistic therefore still too divisive to compete... I think a Romney vs. Clinton would be a great campaign, I believe Rudy and Edwards are not on the same league... but we'll have to wait and see...

    October 8, 2007 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  12. Not Her

    In my opinion, Hillary Clinton should lead the poll on being first in the unemployment line

    October 8, 2007 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  13. lee, san francisco, ca

    Hillary is more and more inevitable to win the nomination and the election!

    George Bush already thinks that she will win the Democratic nomination. The Republican candidates, particularly Rudy Giuliani, are positioning themselves as “Hillary-slayers”. And Hillary's Democratic rivals are paying her the ultimate compliment of concentrating their fire on her rather than on each other. More reasons:

    First, Hillary is not like Howard Dean of 2004, who was favored first and then lost. The situation today is very different from 2004, when Iowa's unfortunate Democrats were confronted by a left-wing insurgent, the unattractive Howard Dean, and a rabble of second-division candidates.

    Second, people put far too much unnecessary emphasis on Iowa. Hillary's narrower margin lead in Iowa is swamped by her strength elsewhere. She is ahead in national opinion polls by about 20 points, a lead she has sustained for months. She is also ahead in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where her nearest rival, Obama, has been losing traction since late summer. Hillary is currently crushing Obama in the political futures markets by as much as 55 points. These poll numbers are built on rock. Hillary is formidably disciplined and knowledgeable. And she has the best political machine in the business—built up over decades and honed by relentless battle with the “vast right-wing conspiracy”. The machine boasts most of the Democratic establishment's mainstream thinkers.

    Third, the dem voters want Hillary and Bill back to white house. Most Democrats associate the Clinton years with peace and prosperity rather than stained dresses and disappearing furniture. Bill Clinton left office with a job-approval rating of 66%. Three-quarters of Democrats, and 53% of voters in general, would like him to play an active role in a future Clinton administration. Nearly nine in ten Democratic voters (88%) express a positive view of Hillary's candidacy; 38% express a very positive view.

    Bush has proved that polarisation is far from fatal, provided you can combine it with a ruthlessly disciplined campaign. Hillary does not have to paint America blue; she only has to win one more state than John Kerry. And Giuliani seems less impressive in person than he does in the polls. His speeches are poorly prepared and convoluted, and he is given to silly gimmicks, such as stopping in mid-speech to the NRA to take calls from his wife on his cell-phone.

    Moreover, Hillary 2007 is not Hillary 1993. She has shown an impressive ability to learn from her mistakes. She has also moved sharply to the centre: witness her success in winning rural votes in upstate New York in 2006, and her ability to work with former Republican tormentors in the Senate.

    Hillary 08.

    October 8, 2007 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  14. A. Thomas, New York, NY

    To Rox, TX:

    The margin of error is 4.9%, Hillary (29) is 7 points ahead of Obama (22), I wouldnt call them a tie, and prefer to call it a lead. On the other hand, Obama is considered a stat tie with Edwards (23).

    October 9, 2007 08:14 am at 8:14 am |
  15. Jimmy4truth Chicago,

    Hillary Clinton would definetly be the best candidate for America. Hillary is a true polititan, you can tell by the way she professionally uses doubletalking mammerjammer to convey her ideas to the American public, she voted for the war in Iraq every time and is chomping at the bit for a fight with Iran, something cowards like Ron Paul are afraid of, because they don't want our ecomomy or our dollars buying power to plumit any further, as if the sacrafice wasen't needed. She hates the second ammendment and the constitution itself, to the point that she has it as a walking matt on her front porch, but lets just face the facts here though folks, I can't even remember what so special about the constitution anyway, so it can't be that important. To cut to the chase, democracy is whats wrong with America, and by nominating Hillary, you can guarante we will soon be free of that problem.

    October 10, 2007 02:40 am at 2:40 am |