November 14th, 2007
11:04 AM ET
8 years ago

Dead heat: Clinton, Edwards, Obama tied in Iowa

A new poll shows a three-way-tie among the top Democratic candidates in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - It's a dead heat among the top three Democratic presidential candidates in the crucial early-voting state of Iowa, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll out of the Hawkeye State Wednesday.

Less than 50 days before Iowa voters kick off the presidential primary process, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, holds a statistically insignificant 2 percentage-point lead over former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (25 percent to 23 percent.) Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is only 1 point behind at 22 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 12 percent and the rest of the field is in single digits.

But nearly half of those backing the top candidates said they may change their mind before caucus day, an indication the final outcome of the presidential season's first caucus is extremely unpredictable.

The poll also indicates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to hold his lead over the rest of the Republican presidential field with 27 percent while dark-horse candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee places a strong second with 21 percent. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes in third with 15 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson stands at 9 percent. The rest of the field polled in low single digits.

Like their Democratic counterparts, close to 1 in 2 Republican caucus goers who identified supporting a candidate said their mind is not definitely made up, and 14 percent say they aren't leaning toward any particular candidate at this point in time.

The poll surveyed 1,273 likely Iowa caucus goers from November 2-11. The margin of error for the Democratic sample is 4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the Republican sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • Polls • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (111 Responses)
  1. Sarah

    CNN/Wolf Blitzer- Did you really give Hillary Clinton a copy of the questions for Thursday's debate in advance as is being reported on MSNBC?

    November 14, 2007 03:57 pm at 3:57 pm |
  2. MacKenzie

    Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign Monday accused John Edwards of acting like President Bush and dividing Democrats. That said, when Clinton left office, didn't his administration leave the dems DEEPLY divided? And who has been THE MOST DIVISIVE person in politics over the past decade? Interesting how none of that matters to Hill and Bill. They still want to get back into office to fill their own needs.

    Posted By MacKenzie : November 14, 2007 11:58 am

    I beg to differ, despite the impeachment, Bill Clinton left office with an approval rating in the mid 60s and it has since increased to the 70s. He is the most popular ex president since Reagan.

    As a matter of fact, at the international level, the Clintons are the most popular US presidential couple since the Kennedys.

    Posted By Bea, Hoboken, NJ : November 14, 2007 12:19 pm

    I beg to differ. Your reply has nothing to do with that fact that the democratic party was at an all time low when Bill Clinton left office. The party was totally DIVIDED.

    As far as your comments regarding another issue... the popularity contest overseas (I was unaware of it as I may have entered), it would be helpful if you SOURCED your facts. It sounds like you work for a campaign that refuses to address issues head on. THE CLINTONS DEEPLY DIVIDED THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WHEN HE LEFT OFFICE.

    November 14, 2007 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  3. Jake, San Diego CA

    Hello? It's the Republicans STUPID! You have to beat the Republicans to win the White House. This cannot be done if the Democrats continue to bash each other and provide fuel for the Republicans in the general election. It's about beating the republicans STUPID so please chill out.
    Posted By John Machamer, Philadelphia, PA. : November 14, 2007 10:19 am

    Not really, the goal is to get the best candidate as President, whether he/she is a Democrat or Republican shouldn't matter. You should never just soley vote based on party lines.

    For me I have voted Democrat but I would have no problem voting for Ron Paul (a Republican) because I think he would be a great candidate for President.

    November 14, 2007 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  4. AJ, IL

    Hillary's got a real fight for the nomination on her hands. The goal of any Presidential election is to select the best candidate. How can someone who prides themselves in being involved in politics for over 30 years yet doesn't show any tangible evidence of success call that EXPERIENCE and bring about true change in Washington?

    Hillary's been taking about being President since 1994 and never was elected to any public office until her last minute run to NY senator.

    Obama in 08!

    November 14, 2007 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  5. Donald Gordon, Ontario, CA

    So Hillary leads in most of the polls still, so what? Those polls only ask hard-core Democratic voters, just wait and see what happens in the primaries, when all of the independent voters (like myself) finally get to chime in. Barack Obama has great support from independents, and some more conservative-leaning voters as well. Hillary has obtained all the support she can possibly get, as many people, including many Democrats, will never vote for her, but Obama is still gaining support, and if some of the other Democrats, such as Edwards, Biden, etc. start falling by the wayside, more of their supporters will probably go to Obama than Clinton.

    Obama '08

    November 14, 2007 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  6. Anonymous, Yorktown, VA

    Just look at that picture. Hillary carries so much "baggage" with her, she looks compressed. This woman is going to have a hard time in the general election.

    November 15, 2007 06:42 am at 6:42 am |
  7. A. Thomas, New York, NY

    Hey – Hillary maniacs: A.Thomas, etc….

    What's happening with "your girl"?? LOL… here I thought she was killing everyone but now it's a dead heat.

    Hmmm… wonder why that is??

    Posted By James, Phoenix AZ : November 14, 2007 11:44 am

    "My girl" is still going strong nationally. Her narrow margin in lead in Iowa is compensated by her WIDER margins in leads in other states. Her poll trendline nationally is UP, while the poll trendlines of Obama and Edwards are sideways.

    As you might know, Hillary still leads (though by a small margin), although Obama has spent at least twice of Hillary in ads in Iowas, and Edwards campained Iowa the earliet and most.

    As a front runner in Iowa, Hillary is being bashed by a group of cry babies or losers (obama, edwards, romney, giuliani, etc.).

    To conclude, a swallow does not make a summer. A narrowing lead in Iowa means little in Hillary's ultimate win nationally.

    November 15, 2007 08:37 am at 8:37 am |
  8. A. Thomas, New York, NY


    Clinton retains a sizable lead for the nomination. Within her party, Clinton’s riding the two-horse team of strength and electability.

    For among leaned Democrats:
    62% Think Clinton Electable,
    15% Think Obama Electable, &
    14% Think John Edwards Electable.

    The figures are virtually identical among registered voters and likely voters.

    Her reputation for overall leadership also lends Clinton a more-than 2-1 advantage among Democrats in trust to handle Iraq and Iran alike.

    November 15, 2007 10:05 am at 10:05 am |
  9. Doug, New Jersey

    CNB, if you took half of the energy that your angry, hateful liberalism lie riden attacks take of you and used it to get yourself some skills, open your own business, or just work harder, then you could support yourself and not look to steal wealth away from those who have done better at life than you.

    Fred Phelps and the KKK have members who are very hateful, but that hate is just a grain of sand compared to the beach of hate that the average Liberal Democrat has for people who have more wealth than them. This hate of the people who pay for your roads, health care, military and everything else is the most disgusting thing in America today.

    November 15, 2007 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
  10. Jeremy, MI

    Hillary and Obama are lame duck candidates. Neither would be elected as President. If would like to see a Democreat get elected next November, then you should be rooting for John Edwards.

    November 19, 2007 09:53 pm at 9:53 pm |
  11. L.Anderson


    January 29, 2008 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
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