November 14th, 2007
11:04 AM ET
8 years ago

Dead heat: Clinton, Edwards, Obama tied in Iowa

A new poll shows a three-way-tie among the top Democratic candidates in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - It's a dead heat among the top three Democratic presidential candidates in the crucial early-voting state of Iowa, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll out of the Hawkeye State Wednesday.

Less than 50 days before Iowa voters kick off the presidential primary process, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, holds a statistically insignificant 2 percentage-point lead over former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (25 percent to 23 percent.) Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is only 1 point behind at 22 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 12 percent and the rest of the field is in single digits.

But nearly half of those backing the top candidates said they may change their mind before caucus day, an indication the final outcome of the presidential season's first caucus is extremely unpredictable.

The poll also indicates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to hold his lead over the rest of the Republican presidential field with 27 percent while dark-horse candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee places a strong second with 21 percent. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes in third with 15 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson stands at 9 percent. The rest of the field polled in low single digits.

Like their Democratic counterparts, close to 1 in 2 Republican caucus goers who identified supporting a candidate said their mind is not definitely made up, and 14 percent say they aren't leaning toward any particular candidate at this point in time.

The poll surveyed 1,273 likely Iowa caucus goers from November 2-11. The margin of error for the Democratic sample is 4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the Republican sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • Polls • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (111 Responses)
  1. diane l. machesney park, IL

    What is the unknown in the Iowa caucus and indeed the country, are the crossovers.
    Obama gets a heavy amount of crossovers and the independents to his side. since they are not in the polling, it is really unknown what his real strength is.
    Edwards also gets a good amount as well.
    Hillary gets solely democratic support and there, half of the democrats do not like her. I think she has a very limited appeal and this is why her being touted as so strong is misleading and troubling.

    November 14, 2007 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  2. Daniel, NY

    A SECOND Iowa poll was released last night and it has Obama even closer to Hillary, and Romney even more expanding his lead (link).
    Also yesterday were released a poll from New Hampshire and a poll from South Carolina. Check them out here.

    November 14, 2007 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  3. Kevin, Cleveland, Ohio

    Lenora from Cedar Rapids–the photo doesn't lop off the top of Obama's head. There's clear space of backdrop over his head, which means his entire head is in the photo.

    This poll simply reinforces what any honest observer already knows–the Iowa caucuses won't be decided until 2008, when people there actually caucus. John Edwards knows what he is doing.

    November 14, 2007 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  4. Mike, Houston, TX

    Hillary, Edwards and Obama. What a dismal choice the democrats have.

    November 14, 2007 10:57 am at 10:57 am |
  5. CNB, Washington State

    Hmmm. From where i stand it looks to me as though this race is one for the Democrats to lose. Democrats have an incredible advantage and no matter what a hopefull conservative wants to think, they have a huge disadvantage going into the actual election. All year long the Dem's are going to slam the republicans with the actions of the current administration. There's nothing they can do about it, they stood by their president with regards to so many policies that are unpopular. Looking at this from strictly a political point of view. I would say, watch the Democratic primaries, because we're basically electing the next president of the United States when we decide which Democrat gets the nomination.

    November 14, 2007 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  6. monica, rochester new york

    Joddy,Newton,Iowa. Thanks for the insider insight, I think that's more valuable than all of the media spin. Everyone I know in NY hopes your assessment is right on!!

    November 14, 2007 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  7. Mike Orlando, FL

    Hillary Clinton will carry Iowa and New Hampshire in the Primary, I'm confident!

    November 14, 2007 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  8. Jacob, Philly, PA

    Well, I've been saying ever since she slipped up in the debate about backing Spitzer's stupid illegal immigrant driver licensing scam that this would be the door she opened for the other to gain on her. now this planting questions scam is helping the others, too. it's time for a change. people, we do not need to continue the Bush/Clinton rule/regime over this country.

    November 14, 2007 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  9. Jeff Denver CO

    Just once, I would like to be able to chose from among good candidates. Let me pick the best of the best. Seems lately we have to chose the least bad from the avaialble choices. Dog crap, or dog vomit....umm lemme see...who wins if I cose none of the above?

    November 14, 2007 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  10. Wayne, Greenville TX

    I think democrats are a stupid bunch..

    Posted By Alex : November 14, 2007 10:24 am

    And I know for a fact that Republicans are brain-dead nitwits. Why else would you all look up to the biggest nitwit of them all – George W. Bush?

    November 14, 2007 11:09 am at 11:09 am |
  11. Greg, Indianapolis, IN

    please, Iowa, NOT HILLARY. and I am saying that as a democrat.

    November 14, 2007 11:10 am at 11:10 am |
  12. Shannon, Nashville, TN

    Obama can and will win the general election. Many conservatives are ready for a new direction and a uniter. Mrs. Clinton is not someone they trust or believe in. For whatever polls are worth, she is ranked as number one amongst least liked candidates- with 50% saying they would never vote for her. Democrats must concentrate on winning the overall election and with Obama we can!

    November 14, 2007 11:11 am at 11:11 am |
  13. Frankie, Los Angeles, CA


    Woot Woot Woot!

    Whomever snags the nomination (PLEASE EXCEPT EDWARDS)

    i will support!

    November 14, 2007 11:11 am at 11:11 am |
  14. Rocco, Wellington, Fl

    Let's not forget this is politics, it is the most serious election in our history as a nation and it is worth hearing everyone out. Anyone of the top 3 Democrates are superior to George Bush, and I'm a Republican, may the best person "Win"

    November 14, 2007 11:18 am at 11:18 am |
  15. Chris, Pensacola FL

    Nothing like a Floridian telling us how it is for Iowans.

    I should of made an archived blog. I've stated Edwards would win for over a year. It's just the fact. I'm not saying it is right, but it will happen.

    And what's the deal with them all folding their hands together? Is this some sort of cultist practice?

    And where are the other candidates? Why are the no included in the photo?

    November 14, 2007 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  16. David Branch, Waco, Texas

    If Hillary loses in Iowa things will really start to get dirty.

    November 14, 2007 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  17. pbj, San Ramon, CA

    So much for "inevitability."

    November 14, 2007 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  18. Ron, New Jersey

    Obama will shock the media, gaining victory in Iowa, Edwards will get second.
    Placing 3rd Hillary's campaign will implode and Obama will ride the wave into the nomination.

    November 14, 2007 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  19. kim portland, oregon

    this makes me so happy. it means hillary's faltering (please!) and edwards is getting in there. GO JOHN!!!!

    November 14, 2007 11:24 am at 11:24 am |


    November 14, 2007 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  21. Ethel, New York, NY

    Of course it is a 3 way tie. Hillary was only leading in name recognition. Now that we see how the candidates handle themselves and the tough questions, we see who we truly want as President.

    November 14, 2007 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  22. Stephen M.H. Braitman, Oakley, CA

    Funny how CNN is reporting on the horse race, but not the issues. And not one mention even of Kucinich's name anywhere on this page.

    November 14, 2007 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  23. Jed in Texas

    But can anyone Beat a fixed Diebold voting machine with out a paper trail?The BIG FIX is in and Big money will win!!

    November 14, 2007 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  24. Ethel, New York, NY

    Of course it is a 3 way tie. Hillary was only leading in name recognition and self promotion. Now that we see how the candidates handle themselves and answer the tough questions, we see who we truly want as President.

    November 14, 2007 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  25. Rob, San Diego CA

    Hillary, Edwards and Obama. What a dismal choice the democrats have.

    Posted By Mike, Houston, TX : November 14, 2007 10:57 am


    Couldn't agree with you more Mike. Biden and Dodd would be much better choices, but with their lack of Media attention, I don't think they are viable candidates...which is really unfortunate.

    Still, I'll take Hillary, Obama and Edwards over Guiliani, Romney and that fossil Thompson anyday!

    November 14, 2007 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
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