November 30th, 2007
12:35 PM ET
9 years ago

Polls show Dem race tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire

New polls show the Democratic presidential race is tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new poll finds Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards now in a statistical tie among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Obama, D-Illinois, seems to have captured 27 percent of the vote, with 25 percent for Clinton and 23 for Edwards in an American Research Group survey of voters in critical early primary states released Friday.

Bill Richardson has slipped to just 4 percent in the latest survey and dropped to fifth place overall, behind Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, whose support has risen from 5 to 8 percent.

Clinton’s support in New Hampshire appears to be slipping as well, but the New York senator still holds a double-digit lead over Obama, her closest rival. The survey finds 34 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton (a six point drop from the October poll), 23 percent support Obama and 17 percent support former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

Edwards seems to have suffered a six-point drop among primary voters in his birth state of South Carolina. He remains in third place overall with 12 percent. Obama is in second place with 21 percent, and Clinton holds a commanding lead with 45 percent.

The margin of error for all polls was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (40 Responses)
  1. Harry,Iowa

    That is just statistical math. I have seen it before. Obama has the ground here,go figure!

    November 30, 2007 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  2. Harry,Iowa

    Obama is the most favoured candidate over here in Iowa. I don't know in Newhempshire.

    November 30, 2007 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  3. Corey, Bloomington IN

    A well that's just a poll. We all know polls are just collections of statistics representing what people are thinking in "reality." And reality has a well-known Obama bias.

    November 30, 2007 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  4. Ryan, New Jersey

    The reason for this is simple. As soon as Americans hear Obama speak, as soon as they actually see him beyond the 12 second soundbyte on CNN, their reaction is usually, "Wow, I didn't know there could be politicians like that!" Obama is getting to wake up and look around at the corruption Hillary wants to perpetuate.

    November 30, 2007 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  5. Steve in SC


    Sour grapes makes the best whine!

    November 30, 2007 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  6. DW, S.F. CA

    John Edwards seems to be doing well. New Hampshire should wake up about Hillary or we will be in Iraq forever.

    November 30, 2007 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  7. Taran, San Diego, CA

    For all of you Obama enthusiasts (and there are certainly many of you on this Blog), the numbers are certainly getting closer in New Hampshire (Iowa really hasn't moved much in a couple of months, flipping between an Obama lead and Hillary lead), but be mindful of the following: If you look at the numbers (nationally and in New Hampshire), Obama is NOT increasing his support, but rather support for Hillary is either going to Richardson, Biden, or the "not sure" category.

    If the "not sure" group (especially the ones that moved from the Hillary camp) have not yet committed to Obama, the majority of them are probably not going to vote for Obama. Clearly, their heart is still for Hillary and they are looking to see if she will correct her ship. If they were really torn between Obama and Hillary, they would have committed to him. Hillary had a hick-up last month (and endured a TREMENDOUS amount of bad press in the interim). After rigourous campaigning during the next month, I suspect she'll get the majority of those "not sure" voters back. That's my prediction anyway.

    November 30, 2007 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  8. Tony, Miami, FL

    Nobody is fooled by Obama trying to sound like a preacher. He needs to sit down...the Republicans will crush his skinny, coke infested bones.

    November 30, 2007 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  9. Markie Bee, Sacramento, Calif.

    What difference does it make if Hillary's numbers are falling and going to someone other than Barack...If Hillary goes 10 points behind by Jan. 3 and Obama is still in the lead doesn't it seem that he will be the winner? Yeah Edwards, Biden and Richardson will rise but not enough to unseat Obama. The Obama campaign has run an incredibly disciplined campaign. Sure, there's been some mistakes (McGurkin) but they alwasy knew that they would keep their powder dry during the summer, let Hillary keep up her burn rate and then close over the last six weeks with massive media blasts and fantastic public speaking engagements that not only show off the candidate but the organizational strength and the incredible amount of support coast to coast.

    November 30, 2007 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  10. Hillarylover - SA


    November 30, 2007 07:20 pm at 7:20 pm |
  11. Dale Wagner, Monroe, IOWA

    Remember all you NON-Iowa caucus goers spouting info – 15% is a threshhold for any candidate in Iowa Dem caucuses – anyone having under 15% of the total in attendance can JOIN with another candidate's group.
    So all those with SECOND choices [who do not choose to leave the caucus when they find their second-tier WITHOUT 15% will play a major part in whether Hill, Obama or Edwards comes out the winner with the MOST voters there at final count.
    All those college students who are registered at their college which is on holiday break until Jan. 22 or so, watch on C-Span to see HOW MANY fans of Obama pay to return EARLY from out of state home to caucus on Jan. 3 – it's a KEY unknown factor.

    November 30, 2007 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  12. Kim, Dallas, TX

    Things should get really interesting in another couple of weeks. I believe Hillary would stop at nothing to unseat Obama. If it weren't such a critical election due to the damage done by our current administration, it would be like watching a psychological thriller waiting to see just how far things will go. I see her as no different than Karl Rove in getting what she wants. He was the genious in fraud and deception.

    November 30, 2007 07:42 pm at 7:42 pm |
  13. Mark , LA

    I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do. How do you think she'll react on the next 9/11? Do you think she's going to make our enemies fear the reprecussions of attacking the US? Remember those British sailors that were kidnapped by Iran? Well if Hillary were prez, that would have been US Soldiers. Think about it folks.

    November 30, 2007 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  14. David Swenk, Santa Maria, CA

    As an independant, I'm watching this democrat race pretty closely. TO me, Obama seems the most gifted. Hillary looks to me like a political pundit who will say anything to get elected. Another typical big spending liberal trying to buy votes with our dollars.
    I believe independants would most likely go for Obama than her, me included.

    November 30, 2007 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  15. Robb, New York

    Oh, please, let this be true. Let the Democrats have the wisdom to see Obama as the one true choice and not Clinton. Please, don't let Hillary win this thing. America needs change, and nominating Obama is a start.

    November 30, 2007 08:55 pm at 8:55 pm |
  16. erika morgan black dimond wa

    I just saw the Charley Rose interview with Edwards, he did himself a lot of good with me! I have not been an Edwards supporter, he seemed too slick to me. Today he articulated my most basic concerns for the US in a way that resonated with me. I am concerned with the basic loss of democracy, the lack of understanding in the Government that they work for and represent the common citizen who is their sovereign. He also seems to have given some thought to how to go about reversing this trend, to take us back to be a people who our founders would smile with approval over.

    November 30, 2007 09:13 pm at 9:13 pm |
  17. John Paul California

    HILLARY Clinton is the most corrupt politician of all the Democrats-I do not care whether she is a woman or man. To those of you who think she is the best "presidential nominee" do your research on her corruption scandals by using a search engine like google. Hillary Clinton is not a good choice for president!

    November 30, 2007 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  18. Tired of Corruption LV

    Everyday Clinton shows that she is incapable of making decisions without waiting for polls to show her what to do. People are wising up to her unethical behavior and poor judgement.

    She is constantly reminding people of the unethical, scandalous behavior that permeated the Clinton reign. The behavior of the Clintons allowed the takeover of our congress by the far right republicans – we can't afford that again.

    November 30, 2007 09:37 pm at 9:37 pm |
  19. J. McKinney SW MO

    >>>I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do.>>>

    Mark, you nitwit! What did you expect Hillary to do. Rush over there and run in and rescue the hostages by herself??

    November 30, 2007 10:59 pm at 10:59 pm |
  20. Jonathan, Holiday, Florida

    I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do. How do you think she'll react on the next 9/11? Do you think she's going to make our enemies fear the reprecussions of attacking the US? Remember those British sailors that were kidnapped by Iran? Well if Hillary were prez, that would have been US Soldiers. Think about it folks.

    Posted By Mark , LA : November 30, 2007 7:45 pm

    I think Senator Hillary handled the situation perfectly. She cooperated with law enforcement to solve the situation. I have been waiting for someone to say something as stupid as your remarks. What would you have had her do? I can say with 100% confidence that there is NOTHING she could have done (or ever do) to satisfy you.

    November 30, 2007 11:11 pm at 11:11 pm |
  21. Jonathan, Holiday, Florida

    Other than Iowans, who cares who Iowans want to vote for?

    I agree with those that say all states should hold primaries on the same day.

    November 30, 2007 11:14 pm at 11:14 pm |
  22. Jerry, Canton, OH

    By Mark , LA

    Not to defend Hillary, as I am a supporter and contributor to the Obama campaign, but I do not think it is right to say she was hiding from the crisis. Was she suppose to do 50 interviews during the crisis?- Then you would criticize her for trying to grab all the attention during this horrible event. As it has been reported, during those 7 hours she was calling the family members of those that were taken as hostages and talking to law enforcements. Now, I am sure she is sorry that she didn't personally call you Mark and tell you everything. I think she handled this very well, very respectfully. It reminded me of Obama's character.

    Obama 2008

    December 1, 2007 12:05 am at 12:05 am |
  23. Beth Concord NC

    Anyone with a sour taste in their mouth over all of the insanity and lies from both parties should have a look at Joe Biden. He has answers to the questions we are all asking, and is not afraid to tell you what they are.

    December 1, 2007 12:29 am at 12:29 am |
  24. Samar, San Diego, CA

    Mark in LA must have posted the stupidiest statement that I've seen in a loooong time. Really.

    December 1, 2007 12:30 am at 12:30 am |
  25. Wyatt Medford,Oregon

    Hillary Clinton if elected will have a few problems to deal with, first the Republican party hates her, everytime they mention her name at there rallys the crowd goes wild and not in a good way. To get anything done in Washington you need to get at least 15 of the Republicans to go along or you won't get anything passed, do you really think Clinton can do this??Another problem I see with Clinton is the American people are tired of the same 2 families taking turns being President. Obama is another story, he doesn't have the bagggage of Clinton but he also doesn't have the experience, mostly in Foreign Affairs. The next President will need to be able to solve all the problems abroad. Please, we don't have the luxury of on the job training at this time in our current situation. Edwards is strong on fighting for the working class but he has a weakness like Obama not enough experience, they are both 1 term senators. Clinton comes across like she has more experience but she really doesn't. Richardson sorry, but we need a President who puts National Security first. All 4 of these candidates are weak on illegal immigration they seem to wobble on there answers when it comes to giving illegals a drivers licence. Biden is the best choice for President, he has the strongest background in Foreign Affairs and has a actual plan to end the War. Biden also is well liked on both sides of the parties and has a track record of bringing them together to get things done. Biden also doesn't have any baggage he has a wife who is a teacher and a son who is going off to war and family who actually like each other. Biden also can reach out to Independents and Moderate Republicans better then any of the other candidates. Biden is the only one who said "NO" without wobbling when it comes to illegal getting licenses. I hope Iowa gets it right.

    December 1, 2007 12:45 am at 12:45 am |
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