December 4th, 2007
11:09 AM ET
11 years ago

New Polls show tight GOP races in early states

New polls show Romney is strong in three early-voting states.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new survey is highlighting the fluid nature of the GOP presidential race in three early-voting primary states.

In Iowa, the AP-Pew poll released Tuesday says the national front-runner, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, trails former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Romney is also in contention for the top spot in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But no lead is safe. Just 57 percent of Iowa Republicans say they strongly support their currently-favored candidate. The race is even more chaotic in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where just 49 and 44 percent of voters are certain of their choice.

Giuliani is viewed as the most electable candidate by Iowa and South Carolina Republicans and is tied with Romney in that category in New Hampshire. But solid majorities in each state say finding a candidate who shares their stands on the issues is a more important consideration.

In Iowa, Romney has 25 percent support among Republicans, Huckabee 24 percent, Giuliani 14 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 12 percent.

In New Hampshire, Romney has 37 percent, Giuliani 19 percent and and Arizona Sen. John McCain 15 percent.

In South Carolina, where the poll shows voters are less focused on the race, Romney and Giuliani have 19 percent each, Thompson 18 percent, McCain 13 percent and Huckabee 10 percent.

The poll, which was conducted over a lengthy two-week period early this month, may have failed to capture Mike Huckabee’s late gains in Iowa. But it does capture deep divisions among traditional Republican blocs, with no one candidate capturing a majority of evangelicals, conservatives or men. Republicans who go to church at least once weekly prefer Huckabee in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, and Thompson in South Carolina.

The survey of likely voters in Iowa had a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points. The margin of error in New Hampshire and South Carolina was 5.5 percent.

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (14 Responses)
  1. J Houston, TX

    Of course it's tight. The GOP listens to it's candidates, examines itself, and does it's best to find one that reflects their values. The Democrats so far, on the other hand, look for who is more electable, more concerned with winning than policy. Wake up Dems, there are good candidates in the field and their names are not Obama or Clinton!

    December 4, 2007 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  2. J.

    Why omit Ron Paul?

    He has already outpaced Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson in fund raising.

    I'm not even American and I can't vote, but this is clearly a snub, especially since he is a candidate that is doing exceptionally well in fund raising and straw polls.

    December 4, 2007 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  3. Jonathan Drake, Columbus, Ohio

    Why omit Ron Paul, indeed?!

    Anyone at CNN, FOX, Gallup, or any other mainstream media/polling agency want to answer that question?


    Thought not. I just like to tell myself, J., that when the numbers don't add up to 100 in the polls...Ron Paul supporters make up the remainder.

    December 4, 2007 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  4. J Houston, TX

    I'm not even American and I can't vote
    I love how the rest of the world just wants to dig into US politics. A clear sign the US is still on top of the heap.

    December 4, 2007 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  5. Roy, Gaitherburg, MD

    This is complete crap reporting by CNN (although they are not alone in this regard).

    Let's do some math:
    Romney 25 + Huckabee 24 + Giuliani 14 + Thompson 12 = 75% of the vote. Where are the other 25% of the people polled???

    More math:
    New Hampshire:
    Romney 37 + Giuliani 19 + McCain 15 = 71%. Where is the other 29%?????

    South Carolina: Romney 19 + Giuliani 19 + Thompson 18 percent + McCain 13 + 10 = 79%. Where is the other 21%???

    So basically anywhere from 1/5 to nearly 1/3 of the results are missing. Where are they?

    December 4, 2007 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  6. Mike, Westport, CT

    I am not a fan of Romney; however, I would never vote for Giuliani because I don't think America needs the baggage of a president and first lady who have at least six marriages between them.

    December 4, 2007 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  7. Lars. DC

    Vote Mitt 2008!!!

    December 4, 2007 03:18 pm at 3:18 pm |
  8. J., Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

    Not a fan of Romney? Won't vote for Giuliani?

    Go to YouTube and search Ron Paul or Google Ron Paul.

    December 4, 2007 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  9. Tim, Minneapolis,MN

    Ron Paul is the only Republican that can be trusted. He understands that what makes this country great is not because of flashy talk,money,size of house or the fact that we have Mickey Mouse.
    He understands that "this country is great because of the protection of the constitution"

    December 4, 2007 06:13 pm at 6:13 pm |
  10. supernovia, pg, ut

    J, lets put on our thinking caps for a moment.

    You say Ron Paul has outpaced Rudy and Mitt in fundraising. Unless Ron Paul is concealing some of his funds, I'm showing that Mitt has raised 62 million. IF that includes the 17M of his own money lent to his campaign, that would leave 45M for Mitt. Rudy's raised 47M. Thompson has 12M. Ron Paul has raised just over 8M. Please explain how this shows Ron Paul outpacing the other candidates in fundraising.

    Lets have a look at another Ron Paul record. Ron Paul has sponsored 346 bills in the last 10 years. FIVE made it out of committee. ZERO were enacted. He's #5 among all reps for the most unsuccessful bills. His success with votes isn't looking so great either.

    As a conservative, I can agree with some of his ideas, but I see he's not very good at getting things done. Unless he's able to get a little more support from the legislative branch as president than what he has as one among them, then a Ron Paul presidency would be 4 years of gridlock. I don't want that, do you? Do those missing 25% want it?

    Speaking of those mysteriously missing numbers. Please do not forget that there are plenty of people who have no idea who they're voting for yet, and people who are voting for random candidates. I wouldn't go so far as to say Ron Paul is a random candidate, but don't fool yourself into thinking that he really has 25% that's being concealed by bad guys.

    December 4, 2007 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  11. Karen Houston TX

    I'm not surprised this is a tight race!
    There are some great people running, but with a little research it is obvious that only one is the most qualified.

    Vote Mitt 2008

    December 4, 2007 11:38 pm at 11:38 pm |
  12. Dover, Delaware

    The man who has the experience strength and honesty to be our next Commander and Chief is Mitt Romney.

    December 5, 2007 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  13. Bill, Portsmouth VA

    Ron Paul is the only Candidate in the race who isn't a lizard in disguise. Every candidate has personally met with David Rockefeller and have all made a promise to support the New World Order should one of them become President.

    Ron Paul is also the only candidate who can save America from facism. The neocons have stolen our liberty, raped our freedoms, and molested our independence. He also the only candidate besides Dennis Kucinich who will lead an investigation into what brought down the world trade center towers and who was responsible for it.

    If you're a good american, you will vote for Ron Paul and save this country. If you're an idiot, you won't.

    December 5, 2007 11:05 pm at 11:05 pm |
  14. Apollo Fuhriman, Bothell, WA

    Easy to understand given the open bigots supporting Huckabee.

    This general anti-Mormon bigotry will lose the Republican party many congressional seats, senate seats and the presidency out West. Remember those states that are RED RED RED? (Utah, Idaho...) well...keep up the anti-Mormon bigotry and that will change.

    Mormons will either not vote, will vote for democrats (for local seats) or will vote third party (non-bigots).

    Don't believe me? Harry Reid (Mormon, D-Nevada, Senate Majority Leader) takes half the Mormon vote in Nevada...Provo, UT. had a Democrat Mormon most of the 1990's in the House...and if Mormons don't vote in Oregon, we will lose that Senate seat as well (Sen. Smith...Mormon.)

    Don't be stupid. Stop your bigotry.

    Talk in Mormon circles is what will happen if an open (or barely closeted) bigot wins the nomination (Huckabee)?

    The West turns BLUE. Congressional seats flip, envelopes won't be stamped, money will not come in, the Mormon foot soldiers who have long added thousands of young, clean-cut people to wave signs, post signs, drop litt. etc. will not show up.

    Bigotry by Huckabee's must be stopped.

    December 7, 2007 11:26 pm at 11:26 pm |