December 21st, 2007
11:56 AM ET
15 years ago

Obama, Clinton in dead heat, N.H. poll says

A new poll shows the New Hampshire primary race is extremely volatile.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Friday, setting up what’s likely to be an all-out sprint in the final 18 days before the Granite State’s primary.

Clinton and Obama each draw support from 32 percent of the state’s likely Democratic voters in the new USA Today/Gallup poll. John Edwards is a distant third with 18 percent, while Bill Richardson comes in fourth with 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the poll shows a tightening race on the Republican side as well, with Mitt Romney's once double-digit lead narrowing to 7 points over a resurgent John McCain, 34 percent to 27 percent.

Rudy Giuliani - who last week decided to pull advertising from the expensive Boston-area media market that reaches the southern portion of New Hampshire - comes in a distant third at 11 percent, a statistically tie with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, who each stand at 9 percent in the survey.

But the poll shows over 40 percent of voters in each party say they may change their minds over the next three weeks, an indication the standings in New Hampshire remain extremely volatile and may be affected by the results in the Iowa caucuses five days earlier.

In further evidence the New Hampshire race is still thoroughly unpredictable less than three weeks out, other polls out of the state this week have shown significantly different margins separating the top candidates in both parties.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, Clinton held a 12- point lead over Obama, and Romney was 12 points ahead of McCain. And in an American Research Group poll out Thursday, Clinton is 14 points ahead of Obama, while Romney and McCain are tied.

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (96 Responses)
  1. Steve, MI

    Isn't that amazing that CNN's H.H. poll puts clinton so far ahead while others put the race much closer. I guess we'll see if the media really can sway an election. Way to keep up your support of clinton's "inevitability" campaign, CNN.

    December 21, 2007 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  2. Julie Overvig Medford,Oregon

    Biden is the only candidate that has everything that I am looking for in the next President, vast knowledge in foreign affairs and a actual plan that won bi-partisan support on his exit strategy of the war. Biden also has a track record of getting things accomplished, his bi-partisan legislation shows he can lead both parties. Biden also comes across as the straight talker of all the candidates, when the democratic candidates were asked in a debate about illegal aliens and drivers licenses all the democratic candidates were stumbling and talking in circles about the issue, Biden was the only one who who didn't. Finally I think Biden has what Reagan had in the 80's the ability to bring in the independent voter and the cross over voters,that is a sure winning strategy for a landslide victory in the general election.

    December 21, 2007 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  3. fair, washington dc

    I tortured myself as a democrat and watched the Fox network yesterday, I do that occassionally just to see what they are going on about. What did I discover...Barack Obama is the darling of the network..bashing Hillary at every turn, but would think he was one of them. I have been saying all along they want Obama to win and they are actively on the job..I wouldn't be surprised if some Republicans are secretly donating to his campaign. I hate giving Republicans props, but they have it together when it comes to this election thing. Their checklist probably reads , Get Hillary out at all cost, then dust the floor with Obama. No offense Obama supporters, thats MY opinion of whats gonna happen if Obama is our nominee in the general election.

    December 21, 2007 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |


    December 21, 2007 08:17 pm at 8:17 pm |
  5. dun, Manchester, NH

    Obama's poll standings in iowa and new hampshire are like obama himself, they look better than the reality. His actual votes obtained on Jan 3 & 8 will be much less.

    Obama counts a lot of support from university and college students in Iowa and New Hampshire. Unfortunately, many of these students are out-of-states especially in New Hampshire, and the voting dates (jan 3 & 8) are during their winter breaks.

    For example, as it appears that Iowa require these young students to return back to their campuses for the caucuses, it is NOT promising that all these YOUNG students, who said supporting obama over the phone to pollsters, will go back to their campuses on Jan 3 and spend hours for the caucuses.

    December 21, 2007 08:35 pm at 8:35 pm |


    December 21, 2007 09:25 pm at 9:25 pm |
  7. Jose Card

    Mind you that Dr. Ron Paul's poll result doesn't match his impressive online following with mostly small amounts of donations that totaled more than 6 million dollars in 24 hours. There might have been sampling issues in the poll.

    December 21, 2007 09:37 pm at 9:37 pm |
  8. OverTheRainbow, KS

    Biden is the only candidate that has everything that I am looking for ...

    Posted By Julie Overvig Medford,Oregon : December 21, 2007 6:49 pm

    Julie -> I agree with you but he, and all the others, blew it a long time ago. During the first debate when Her Royal Thighness said I am the MOST experienced candidate running for president, he (and Dodd too) should have slammed on that statement. "Excuse me, Senator, between Sen. Dodd and myself, WE have are the most experienced of any candidate up here!" Instead, they let it pass, and the Clintonistas now tout that at every opportunity. Without THAT line, she has nothing, and her trolls and minions would be sucking wind telling us why she is qualified. They blew it from day one cuz they didn't want to upset the Queen, and made nice. Now he and Dodd will be gone after Iowa ......

    December 21, 2007 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm |
  9. Mario Uy Streamwood IL

    Hmmm, there just might be a subliminal message here.

    Obama, Clinton in dead heat. Do they mean Obama, dead, Clinton in heat?


    December 21, 2007 11:09 pm at 11:09 pm |
  10. Les WA

    To Meks:

    What you're saying was true. First time in my life, I've donated money (campaign contribution) to a candidate I feel can fix the problems Bush is about to leave. First time also, I take the primary seriously, I've never voted for primaries before (cast vote regularly in general election), but this time I will.

    What I find quite insulting, the statement coming out from Obama camps, supporters of Hillary are a bunch of ignorant people. Majority of Hillary supporters are degree holders, but some choose to be housewives to take care of their family. I know a lot of women supporting Hillary, they're enterpreneurs and successful at that.

    Obama does not impress me one bit, the rhetoric of Obama is very common in third world countries, candidates promises hopes and dreams, but that's about it. How those hopes and dreams can be achieve is to be discussed once they're office. 9 out of 10 fails to deliver to the people "hopes and dreams". Obama is not getting my vote, I'm not a gambler, I won't take my chances with a neophyte, wet behind the ears. Obama has so much to learn, he wanted to fly like an eagle, he need to grow more wings. Hillary Clinton gets my vote all the way!

    December 22, 2007 12:29 am at 12:29 am |
  11. Mark R. Fort Lauderdale FL

    I agree with Fair; Obama can't win the general election right now. The right is trying to get her to lose in the primary b/c they can beat Barack in the general.

    December 22, 2007 03:06 am at 3:06 am |
  12. quetzalcotal2012 lincoln nebraska

    Does anyone on this page have any clue what foriegn relations is even supposed to mean, has anyone traveled across the united states or maybe went to another country outside of the vacation resort or the church run function that took you there...Or whatever your parents or your trust fund payed for...Does anyone have any clue how the govnt works and what the presidents actual role is? People are talking about the international community, forgein policy and political experiance...You dont need a whole lot of political experiance to run this country...Imagine the idea of the reason this country is in such terrible shape economy and education wise is that the people you keep electing have no idea what so ever whats going on, not a clue...There rich, they hangout with rich people...They dont know what the help wanted section in any news paper looks like, they take money from people who are exploting all the people writing on this page and you sit around and make up excuses standing up for them...How can you make fun of Obama for saying what he's said, when the housing market is sending us into recession...I think theres some serious disinformation going on here, maybe the people with all the "experiance" are the people who are selling you out, maybe you shouldnt listen to what they say

    December 22, 2007 06:54 am at 6:54 am |
  13. Scott, New York, NY

    On the Obama v Clinton "electability" question (and to those who say there's no way Obama could win):

    There are a number of lifelong Republicans who are disgusted with the debacle this administration has delivered to us (not just in Iraq). Were Obama the Dem nominee, I would consider voting for him. Hillary? Not a chance. Ron Paul's not going to get the GOP nomination and so the GOP antiwar vote may just take a look at Obama. There's no way they would consider Hillary. All of us are just tired with the scorched earth politics that we've had to endure the past 15 years. We don't need 4 more years of it.

    December 22, 2007 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  14. Brad, Stockton, CA

    As long as Hillary ends up in the toilet where she belongs, I will be extremely happy.

    December 22, 2007 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  15. Michelle O, Houston, Tx

    One of the best chances for a Republican win for the next president is a contest between the republican nominee (any) and Obama.

    Do you really think most people will vote for this clown with zero experience and smooth talk?

    Many swing voters will vote republican if Obama is the nominee – and that is majority middle america folks, oh and don't bother playing a "race" card – this is about experience

    We don't have a lot of time for another President who needs a lot of on the job training.

    Hillary (and Bill) in 08

    December 22, 2007 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  16. Sean Allen

    It is heartening to watch the two most dishonest candidates lose ground as the primaries progress. Willard the Mittmeister and HRC are matching bookends when it comes to minor issues like the truth. Smart businessman that he is, it's interesting to watch Romney pour millions into a losing effort. Doom to HRClit and Willard.

    December 22, 2007 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  17. Janel, St. Paul, MN

    The fact of the matter is that whoever wins the presidency (democrat or republican) will not be able by him/herself to accomplish everything he/she has promised.

    That said, the person who will represent America to the rest of the world must be articulate, sensitive to other nations,and someone who we as Americans will be proud to be the leader of the Free Nation. The person elected should prove to the rest of the world that we are "free thinkers" in America, we love our freedom and we want a change.

    In my opinion, that person is Barack Obama. He speaks clearly, honestly and with conviction. From all I have seen about and heard from him, he is the best hope for the next four/eight years.

    I would be proud to have President Obama representing me!

    December 22, 2007 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |

    RON PAUL 25
    ROMNEY 22
    McCAIN 5
    HUNTER 2
    KEYES 0

    BAD...WHAT'S UP?

    December 23, 2007 02:52 am at 2:52 am |
  19. Equal Opportunity for All Wives (& hubbys) in America

    Shoot don't know why everyone is getting their knickers in such a knot = Everybody knows Michelle wears the pants in the Obama family. So what is everyone so worried about? America ran just fine under 8 years of Nancy Reagan didn't it 😉 I'm sure Michelle is equally as capable too!!

    🙂 Go Michelle/Oprah '08

    oh sorry that is unless y'all would rather have Bubba or Judith or Mrs. Bloomberg instead? as the late Gilda Radner used to say on SNL "nevermind"

    December 24, 2007 09:11 am at 9:11 am |
  20. Debra

    I'm sick and tired of Obama being the media darling. I question his credibility ever since he did not show up to take that crucial vote on Iran and conveniently stated he was campaigning. The other three democratic presidential candidates took time away from their campaigns and voted!
    I now feel that he is even less trustworthy when he questions Edwards' credibility due to 527's. He is one to talk. Obama is receiving help from 527 groups here in california. However, the media's darling was once again not questioned about this.

    January 5, 2008 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  21. ama udu ama

    Hillary is politically more stable than Obama and even the other candidate in the repub. Hillary draws her votes from all groups in the primary while Obama draws his votes mainly from college students who are tired of old politicians.This partern of voting for Obama may not favour him in the general election if he scales through the primaries. If Hillary wins the primary,my fear is that the repubs will still remain in the WHITEHOUSE because USA is not yet ready for a woman president. Please make a wise choice,this is the country that rules the world.

    January 18, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
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