December 29th, 2007
04:00 PM ET
14 years ago

Poll: Romney regains lead in Iowa

 A new poll shows Romney up front in Iowa.

A new poll shows Romney up front in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Republican Mitt Romney has regained his lead over Mike Huckabee in Iowa, according to a new poll released Saturday - the first Hawkeye State survey in over a month to show the former Massachusetts governor in the No. 1 spot there.

According to the American Research Group poll, Romney leads Huckabee among likely Republican caucus goers by 9 percentage points, 32 percent to 23 percent. That represents a significant gain for Romney from a similar survey last week in which he registered 21 percent - then 2 points behind Huckabee. John McCain is the only other Republican to register double digits in the new poll at 11 percent.

But other recent GOP surveys have shown Huckabee in the lead. A Quad City Times poll conducted by Research 2000 released late Friday has Huckabee at 34 percent, with Romney 7 points back at 27 percent. Fred Thompson is the only other Republican to register double-digits in that poll with 11 percent.

In what seems to be more bad news for Huckabee, the poll suggests his support is the softest of any leading Republican - only 60 percent of his supporters say they will definitely choose him on caucus night. That compares to 85 percent for Romney, and 93 percent for McCain.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead over rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. The New Yorker registers 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus goers. Obama and Edwards are both 7 points back at 24 percent. No other Democrat is in double-digits..

Other recent polls show the Democratic race in a statistical dead heat. The Quad City Times poll found Edwards and Obama at 29 percent, with Clinton at 28 percent.

The ARG poll was conducted December 26-28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Quad City Times poll was conducted December 26-27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • Polls
soundoff (96 Responses)
  1. George

    ROmney in the lead? pfft How much is he paying ARG. If you guys believe romney is the person he says he is then I have DesMoines Iowa ocean front property I'd like to sell you

    December 29, 2007 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  2. Rob

    I cant believe this is even a race. Romney is by far the most qualified. So he's changed his opinion on a couple of things through the years. At least he hasnt changed his opinion about his wife during that time which is more than I can say for 3 of the others.

    Im sure Huck is a good guy – its just I find his attacks on Romney's religion troubling – as well as his foreign policy inexperience and tax and spend history.

    McCain is indeed "honorable", but the guy cant take a punch in politics. Those ads contrasting him and Romney's records arent personal attacks – they are what politics is all about – contrasting records and policies of you and your apponent. McCain's ad is simply a personal attack. How "phony" can a loyal husband, father of 5 successful kids, and apparently one of the best business minds in America be? Ask that business associate who Romney helped find his daughter how phony he is – thats real hero stuff imo.

    December 29, 2007 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  3. jason, North Carolina

    If Romney wins Iowa, he will defeat McCan't in NH and its all over but the crying from there. Mitt call Governor Crist of Fla to complete your ticket and your on your way to the oval office.

    December 29, 2007 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  4. Mike Huckabee, Ark

    I finally can admit it, Mitt is the man. It took me a while to figure it out. I want to unofficially endorse this man for POTUS.
    Mike Huckawont

    December 29, 2007 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  5. Joe Ossai, Bedford, NH

    Another ARG poll, these guys should stay out of the polling business. The last poll had Hillary 19 point ahead.

    ARG is joke

    December 29, 2007 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  6. Ryan Basilio

    I find this report suspect at best since we do not see what the actual sampling numbers (ig how many people took the survey) or how the sampling was done. With such a huge margin of error 4-/+ the survey could be off by a whole 8 Percent well within the margin of error. Please give us the facts.

    December 29, 2007 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  7. Ray, Rochester

    Once that clown Huckabee stredt opening hs mouth, people realized what a moron he is. He will tank in Iowa and disappear from the field.

    December 29, 2007 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  8. Justin

    Go Mitt!

    Huckabigot is a wolf in sheep's clothing, a disingenuous egotist and an intellectual lightweight. He may be able to fool the evangelicals in Iowa, but he's not fooling anyone else. We need a smart, hardworking, realist in the White House. Mitt Romney is the man for the job!

    Stop Trudy Giuliani! Stop Her Royal Heinous Hitlary! Vote Romney!

    December 29, 2007 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  9. Tracy Adams, GA

    Willard, look in the mirror and tell me who the real "bot" is. You're telling me you can look past all his enormous mistakes as Governor and you still want to support this guy? I would gladly vote for him if he were a true conservative and didn't have an abysmal record as Governor. No, he is NOT presidential material. End of story.

    December 29, 2007 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  10. Andy, New York, New York

    I am tired of all these snap polls. They remind me of the liberal and left wing media outlets that staged snap polls with questions phrased in ways to make Bush and the Iraq war look bad. Then when tpollsters are satisfied with the answers, they post the results showing a negative for Bush and the war. But when was the last time we saw a poll on Bush and the Iraq war? Know why there's been none recently? Cause the Iraq war is looking good since the surge, and the liberal and left wing media outlets don't like that! Bill Clinton's PR guru, Dick Morris, once revealed that Clinton did almost daily pulse polls of people to deterime the hot button issue of the day, then Clinton would go out and make sound bite remarks on those issues in time for the evening news on TV. it made him appear as though he was on the ball and a people President. The only polls that should matter are those that determine who wins and loses!

    December 29, 2007 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  11. lucian

    LOL... when are people going to realize that these polls mean absolutely nothing?

    December 29, 2007 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  12. Cameron

    These ARG polls are so wildly all over the place that they mean nothing. From week to week, they are completely different.

    If I worked for CNN, I would quit using that research company.

    December 29, 2007 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  13. popular vote 2008, LA, CA.

    better take cnn for what it is, clinton news network. Cnn will go to any ungodly lenght just to keep pushing clinton to the fore-front. These days, I take whatever comes out of clinton news network with a pinch of salt. I refused to be fooled.

    December 29, 2007 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  14. Conservative4Life, AL

    Complain all you want George, but yet if the poll came out and said that Huckabee was in the lead you'd be all over it. Give me a break – 'bout time that his record is seeing the light of day so people can know what an absolute disaster he would be as President.

    December 29, 2007 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  15. Brian

    LOL indeed, Willard. Just because Romney is the best funded and most well-organized candidate doesn't mean his supporters are paid. He has integrity and competency and that's what draws the push of support in Iowa.

    If you haven't noticed the Republican party's image has gotten a bit tarnished in the last two years. Of the current batch of potential nominees Romney is the best man to restore competency, credibility and reason to the GOP. Huckabee is a likable guy (even when he's suggesting that his opponents slit their wrists in the bathtub). Just don't expect him to know much about Pakistan or Iran.

    Mike Huckabee–my vote for folksy, glib, funny man. Mitt Romney–my vote for Leader of the Free World.

    December 29, 2007 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  16. Chris, Bethesda, Maryland

    Don't get carried away. This is just one poll, and public opinion during the primaries is extremely fickle. Huckabee, whatever his failings, has done extraordinarily well considering the lack of money in his campaign, and he does still hold the religious right card over the other four. I agree with the anti-Huckabee sentiment, but please, do not count this guy out or cry victory too early. In politics, you truly never can be too careful.

    December 29, 2007 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  17. Tyler, Cincinnati, OH

    I'm shocked so many people are falling all over themselves over these polls. When will this nation start realizing that these polls are nothing but fodder to get a story going. Jan. 3 is all that matters. Don't be so quick to crown a victory for anyone. These polls are not reliable: Just a week ago, Huckabee was running away with a win in Iowa, and this morning, in another poll, there was a three way tie on the Democratic side. Take your time, get your tea ready, and a comfortable chair, and indulge yourself in the insanity on Jan. 3. I know I will.

    I'm an Obama man myself. If he is still rocking in the end, he is getting my vote.

    But if I was FORCED to vote for a Republican, it would be Mitt Romney. I'm a devout Christian, but it really doesn't matter to me if the President is Christian or not, and the fact that Romney is a Mormon is actually kind of refreshing. I think he is the brightest canidate on the GOP side: he has the intelligence, the business savy, etc. He could have battled Obama for my vote but he lost it when started to OVERTLY pander to the Republican base. I mean, everyone panders to their base, but he grossly panders. And the recent love affair he has had with GW is gross. He actually thinks GW is a good President. But at least he doesn't want to quaratine the *gays*, or bomb bomb bomb Iran, or use a verb, a noun, and 9/11 in every sentence, or cut the nation off to the outside world, and at least he is actually enthused to be running for president. So....I guess it doesn't take much to be the best that group.

    I'm glad I"m an independent because if I was in the GOP, I would be pulling my hair over my options.

    December 29, 2007 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  18. Jen Cedar Falls, IA

    I always say ABC, because Clinton should NOT get the White House AGAIN! This is preposterous for our country to even allow such a thing. Don't think for a moment that if Hillary wins that Bill wouldn't be running everything he could get his hands on (that's against our Constitution you know! + hide the interns, geez!) Putin wants to keep Russia under his rule, too. Chavez tried to keep Venezuela under his thumb after his term is up as well. Same with Musharref in Pakistan. Enough of this Clinton/Bush era! Anybody But Clinton! Consider how much that woman is loathed in this country. There are thousands of Dem's that say they would NEVER vote for her, so they'd switch parties, how's that gonna work for you, Dem's? Hillary would divide this country even more than it is. She is NO uniter, she is a hard-core divider who has left a very dirty (hidden now) trail throughout her years. Mitt Romney IS the only candidate worthy of the White House. He would work hard, using his Brain (as opposed to other body parts) in the Oval Office to unite this country and bring it back to the International Respect and Economic Prosperity we used to know before the Clinton/Bush years. Check him out!

    December 29, 2007 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  19. ted

    Romney-Palin '08! Unbeatable - will cream Billary and/or Oprah Obama.

    December 29, 2007 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  20. Allen Ridge

    AMEN DAN C................ GO MITT! The most qualified and once-in-a -lifetime candiate in one.

    Mitt's a blend of Ronald Regan and JFK...............extremely strong in all areas.

    December 29, 2007 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  21. Tommy, Chicago IL

    I won't believe anything until January 3!! Everyday a new poll comes out with a totally different result as the last poll. Hillary leads in One poll, Obama in another, Edwards in another, a statistical tie in another, Romney is up by 7, huckabee is up by 12 and Fred Thompson is steady at 12% in all polls! Haha. I'm getting tired of polls, January 3rd couldn't come any sooner, I'm sure Iowans can't wait to watch a regular ad on TV! Who woulda thought people can't wait to watch regualr commercials again! haha

    December 29, 2007 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  22. Dan

    I sure hope this poll is correct. Although Huckabee has a likeable demeanor, I have not been able to understand how people can support him in view of his lax attitude towards criminals, his propensity to spend, and that fact that he does not stay current on his issues. He may be witty, but he does not seem to have the discipline, preparation, or conservative credentials to be a good president.

    Say what you want to about Romney, this guy has ran the most disciplined and prepared campaign of any of the candidates. He also shows an incredible depth of knowledge on almost all the issues. He has a gold-plated resume in government, the private sector, and the volunteer sector. This guy has definitely prepared himself and deserves to be president. My vote is for Romney.

    December 29, 2007 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  23. Bryan, Bristol, RI

    Can you just imagine 4 years of "HELLARY" Clinton? All the screaming, demands and requisite genuflecting...yeesch, I shudder to think!

    December 29, 2007 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  24. JM

    Hey Allen Ridge......NO WAY. Mitt a blend of JFK and Reagan? Please, you make me sick. This guy has an ego that wan't stop. 50--60-70 million of his own money to get as far as he has.

    I can't even imagine this guy and his spoiled little family in the Oval Office...yuck!

    December 29, 2007 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  25. mike, dallas, TX

    Why does CNN continue to make a big deal out of this ARG poll that lacks credibility? Only CNN tries to mae it in to a real news where other credible news sources ignore it.

    December 29, 2007 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
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