December 29th, 2007
04:00 PM ET
14 years ago

Poll: Romney regains lead in Iowa

 A new poll shows Romney up front in Iowa.

A new poll shows Romney up front in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Republican Mitt Romney has regained his lead over Mike Huckabee in Iowa, according to a new poll released Saturday - the first Hawkeye State survey in over a month to show the former Massachusetts governor in the No. 1 spot there.

According to the American Research Group poll, Romney leads Huckabee among likely Republican caucus goers by 9 percentage points, 32 percent to 23 percent. That represents a significant gain for Romney from a similar survey last week in which he registered 21 percent - then 2 points behind Huckabee. John McCain is the only other Republican to register double digits in the new poll at 11 percent.

But other recent GOP surveys have shown Huckabee in the lead. A Quad City Times poll conducted by Research 2000 released late Friday has Huckabee at 34 percent, with Romney 7 points back at 27 percent. Fred Thompson is the only other Republican to register double-digits in that poll with 11 percent.

In what seems to be more bad news for Huckabee, the poll suggests his support is the softest of any leading Republican - only 60 percent of his supporters say they will definitely choose him on caucus night. That compares to 85 percent for Romney, and 93 percent for McCain.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead over rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. The New Yorker registers 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus goers. Obama and Edwards are both 7 points back at 24 percent. No other Democrat is in double-digits..

Other recent polls show the Democratic race in a statistical dead heat. The Quad City Times poll found Edwards and Obama at 29 percent, with Clinton at 28 percent.

The ARG poll was conducted December 26-28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Quad City Times poll was conducted December 26-27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • Polls
soundoff (96 Responses)
  1. Bryan, Firestone, CO

    Huckabee couldn't talk about what he actually did that was noteworthy as Governor, so people are waking up to that and looking for someone that actually has a good record of turning things around, with the leadership this country needs. Way to go Romney.

    Good article on why he'll be the next POTUS

    December 29, 2007 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  2. JohnC

    I think democrats are being forced to turn to Fox to get a balanced coverage. CNN and MSNBC have done nothing buy attack Clinton, while giving a free ride to Obama and Huckabee.

    Tucker and Mathewes are worse than ORiley.

    Can you imagine what the press would do if one of the dems was pen palls like Huckabee was with convicted serial rapist Wayne DuMond?

    "Dear Wayne. . . . My desire is that you be released from prison," the governor wrote. "I feel now that parole is the best way. . . ."

    Yet this is the republican front runner?

    The media needs to stand up to right wing cry babies and report the facts, or we are going to wind up with some deviant as president.

    I was looking for a republican who was pro environment but I'll never vote for someone who is pen palls with rapist and killers.

    December 29, 2007 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  3. JT

    I thought the poll might be to good to be true myself, but if you go back through the histories on Real Clear Politics website, you can see they are pretty consistent with the CNN and ABC polls, as well as others. If ARG is off, the others are also.

    This is great news, but don't let it allow anyone who supports MITT to rest on our laurels. Anything can happen between now and Thursday. Don't let up for a second, keep getting the message out, keep plugging away, GO MITT!!!

    This will be a great day for America starting next Thursday if we can keep it going.

    Instead of addressing the issues in question one by one, I noticed Huckabee and McCain are turning to personal attacks now. Their true colors are starting to show through. Romney is a truly class act (anyone who honestly compares his ads with those who support Huckabee will have to agree). Huckabee support group did an ad against Romney that was very childish and distasteful. Romney shows he is a statesman and a fair competitor. This is politics. I would expect candidates to prove why they are the best candidate and compare records. Romney refuses to get personal, and even still says nice things about Huckabee even though Huckabee tries to slam Mitt personally every post I've seen lately.

    Romney = Proven Results. GO MITT!!!!

    December 29, 2007 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  4. X, Madison WI

    Oh great, another ARG poll. Why is CNN still publishing this kind of info.
    ARG has the worst track record of all polls out there.
    In other words, ignore this.
    All other polls show the race very close in IOWA and this? Simply nonsense.

    December 29, 2007 06:47 pm at 6:47 pm |
  5. Chalie, San Diego, CA

    We need fresh ideas. Same old same old won't do. The clintons had 8 years to solve these problems and they didn't. We need a new and better approach to politics. We don't need huge egos. Bill Clinton will be a distraction in a Hillary clinton administration. Bush, Clinton, Bush Clinton makes America look like a feudal state. Open up to new talent. Let a fresh breeze in. Vote for genuine change.

    December 29, 2007 06:47 pm at 6:47 pm |
  6. JT, Ada OK

    Go Romney. He's got the skills to cure our ills!

    December 29, 2007 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  7. katrina

    Yes! ARG often has results that are very different from other polls. Here's hoping that this one shows the direction Romney is headed.

    We need Romney's clean living life style as a positive example to our country's children (and their parents).

    We need his incredible abilities as a turn-around specialist to clean up Washington.

    Here's wishing I was caucusing in Iowa!

    December 29, 2007 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  8. doug marcus

    the 3 top republicans – mitt, rudy & johnny mac – have the strengths & background to get the job done. none of them will pass a litmus test being 100% on every conservative idea. but they have shown through their experience to organize & execute policies that they believe in.

    December 29, 2007 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  9. Grant Devereaux

    The three scariest candidates are Hillary, Romney and Giuliani. All are manufactured phonies, and all are integral parts of the New World Order. If any of these bozos make it to the White House, I am moving to New Zealand.

    December 29, 2007 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  10. Dennis

    News Flash!! Ron Paul takes a HUGE lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. All of the other wanna be's drop to last be continued.............

    December 29, 2007 07:20 pm at 7:20 pm |
  11. Dale Davis, Glendora, California

    Thank God Iowans are beginning to wake up. I was wondering when they would reconsider what they were doing. May faith in the American intellect is starting to get restored again. Go Mitt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    December 29, 2007 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  12. Andy Dyer, St. Johns, AZ

    This is the beginning of the end for the "Huckaboom." There was a reason that he has been ineffective on the campaign trail until the end of November. No only has he run a slipshod campaign, but he is an intellectual and ethical lightweight. But he is a good preacher and one-line-quipper, so please go back to the lecture circuit where you belong.

    Regarding the dependability of this particular poll, I think that over the next 3 days, there will be other polls that confirm this momentum switch. Stay tuned...

    December 29, 2007 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  13. everyday

    If you think you should vote for Huckabee notice how all the liberal newspapers and main stream media are falling over this guy. Why? Because he is pathetic.

    Huckabee's rise was a result of the perfect storm, liberals wanting him to be easy to beat in the general election, Giuliani helped him to take steam out of Romney since Giuliani could not in Iowa, and the flood of religious bigots who even Fred Thompson could not inspire! That is your Huckaboom. Hey, Huckabee just picked up another endoresement, the leaders of Iran and Russia....

    Give me Romney over Huckabee everyday of the week!

    December 29, 2007 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |

    Hillary is a street fighter, a proven street fighter, tough as nails, She an take a punch like no other. She is not smoke and mirrors, if she were, she would of been gone long ago. Can that be said of her opponets?

    December 29, 2007 08:26 pm at 8:26 pm |
  15. analysis paralysis

    The Iowa caucus is effectively one-person, one-vote only at the precinct level. If 1,000 persons show up and pack full a particular precinct to caucus and only 50 show up at another precinct to caucus, the total votes at each precinct/caucus site
    produce the same number of delegates to the next level where convention delegates are awarded. So a rural caucus site may only draw 50 people compared to a caucus site in Des Moines that could draw 400. Yet, each caucus precinct/site has the same voting power. So the pollsters percentages may not reflect the outcome due to the distortion of the one-person, one-vote caucus procedure. Another factor to keep in mind is where will the votes of those candidates (such as Richardson, Biden, Kucinich, Dodd) who do not reach the 15% viability requirement go to? The potential for a skewed outcome differing from the raw numbers is quite possible. I sense that a candidate could actually be down 5-6 points in the polling, but could still end up "winning" on caucus night if he or she "sweeps" the Richardson, Biden, Kucinich, Dodd vote which combined is now around 12%.

    December 29, 2007 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  16. paul

    Looks like Romney's saturation bombing of Iowa's airwaves with ads (all paid from Mitt's personal $$$) is having an effect. He's trying to buy the Presidency. If the other campaigns had that kind of funds, maybe they would be running "comparison" ads about Mitt, showing that Boston's two daily newspapers as well as most NH newspapers have endorsed McCain. The daily newspapers of NH's two biggest cities (Concord and Manchester) explicitly rejected Romney as being a phony who changes his political beliefs (on abortion, gun control, stem cell research, gay marriage, stance on illegal immigrants, stance on Bush's 2001 tax cuts) for political convenience.

    This would matter to Iowans because Boston and NH newspapers observed Mitt every day, up close when he was one-term governor of Massachusetts, the only time he held political office. I understand he's billing that as an amazing "turnaround", well, I can tell you that Massachusetts residents such as myself don't see it that way. We saw a man elected based on big promises to fix the system (I personally voted for him), but after he was given the car keys he pretty much turned his back on the job. Spent much of his time out of state making useful friends for his career, while he neglecting the criminal justice system (the Daniel Tavares case showed how broken that system was) and the $15 billion Big Dig project (a tunnel ceiling collapsed and killed a driver during his watch, b/c of shoddy design and construction work that his administration was supposed to be monitoring). Once he left office he started bashing Massachusetts at every opportunity, presumably as a way of bonding with red state voters.

    Incidentally, some of those papers including the Boston Herald and Manchester Union Leader, are conservative with Republican editorial pages. They don't like Mitt because they think he's phony, not because they don't think he can win.

    December 29, 2007 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  17. Rena

    So good Katrina: Mitt is the best qualified and exemplifies the stable, responsible and admirable characteristics that a President should. As a nation, we should be so grateful that Mitt Romeny decided to run for President considering that the media and poorly informed public will set out to crucify anyone whom they think will threaten their ability to "brainwash" the public.

    Thank you. Mitt Romney, and your family for deciding to run for President – we appreciate your sacrifices. God Bless You and keep you safe, strong and focused for America.

    December 29, 2007 09:14 pm at 9:14 pm |
  18. LeEric Anchorage AK

    Tyler, Cincinnati, OH December 29, 2007 5:22 pm ET

    Tyler said: But if I was FORCED to vote for a Republican, it would be Mitt Romney. I'm a devout Christian, but it really doesn't matter to me if the President is Christian or not, and the fact that Romney is a Mormon is actually kind of refreshing.
    Dude! What is it with folks that they think Mormons do not believe in Christ? I am a member of The Church of JESUS CHRIST of Latter-day Saints. I can assure you that Christ's name is in the church's name for a very good reason! That is, we believe in him, apply his atonement in our lives and worship him.
    It is really easy to check and see that indeed we do believe in him.

    Romney is as true as Christian as any of the rest. Please do not vote against him simply because critics have lead you to believe otherwise.

    Go Romney!

    December 29, 2007 09:27 pm at 9:27 pm |
  19. SVB

    It is relieving to see that Iowans are finaly coming back down to Earth and accepting reality. Mitt Romney should win Iowa. He is the most qualified and far more honest and real than Huckabee. No one should lose the nomination simply because of religous bigotry. Romney has the socially conservative qualities that Huckabee has and the fiscal, foreign policy, immigration and conservative policy qualities on crime that Huckabee most definately does not have. GO ROMNEY!

    December 29, 2007 09:59 pm at 9:59 pm |
  20. John Siebert

    I see you have censored my comments concerning Ron Paul. Why? Afraid of something? LOL!

    December 29, 2007 10:09 pm at 10:09 pm |
  21. Roger

    Romney will get our country's economy blazing again. Any business he has ever touched has been fantastically profitable. He is the leader we need for President!

    Hillary = Socialist = Economic Failure = Socialist = Hugo Chavez

    December 29, 2007 10:14 pm at 10:14 pm |
  22. Michael

    Fantastic! Mitt Romney has my vote as President of the United States of America. Way to go Iowa!

    December 29, 2007 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |
  23. John

    Hillary Clinton is the worst of all Candidates running. Lacks Vision, has no new ideas, almost no real passion, boring speaches, planeted questions, won't answer questions from voters, and is totally fake. I just don't get the Go Hillary Crowd.

    December 29, 2007 10:54 pm at 10:54 pm |
  24. Greg

    Huckabee complains about ads that distinguish him from the other candidates because he has no substance and has to run away from his actual performance as governor. Huckabee is nothing more than a pro-life, liberal democrat.

    December 29, 2007 11:19 pm at 11:19 pm |
  25. xtina chicago IL

    Mitt does have proven results, such as lowering taxes in Mass. Don't we all WANT Congress to have to make do with less so that they won't have somany earmark expenditures? Just a rhetorical question. But if you read thru the threads here, Hillary and Obama focus on EVERYTING but their past experience – maybe that's because neither has the kind of experience that shows leadership. Hillary and Obama are campaigning on all kind of negativity and useless information while candidates such as Duncan Hunter and Mitt Romney and Mayor Guiliani have success already on their side.

    December 29, 2007 11:28 pm at 11:28 pm |
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