February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Tom

    Any upper income or middle income person who votes for Obama will be hurting themeselves, because Obama will cater to others at your expense. Vote for Clinton

    February 3, 2008 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  2. alto

    Just watched a clip of Maria Shriver at Obama rally in Los Angeles. Found it hard to take – her "stream of consciousness" remarks – adding that she hadn't combed her hair, done her make up but felt that she just had to be there (more "me too") – felt obliged to add that she had just come from a horse show – something that the vast numbers of service workers in California can really relate to – the lives of their rich employers or "limosine liberals".

    Does she really think she will move a single voter?

    February 3, 2008 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  3. Jack ny, ny

    I am quitting my job and bought a lotto ticket.
    yes we can

    February 3, 2008 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  4. Peter Wier

    By the way, that 20% was factored in the survey

    quote
    "Many of those voters, who were called back after Edwards' withdrawal, told the survey takers to count them as undecided, at least for now.
    About 25 percent of those surveyed had cast their ballots by mail.
    Those who have or intended to vote by mail are evenly divided between Obama and Clinton in the Democratic contest. Those who say they will go to the polls Tuesday narrowly favor Clinton."

    that means that the poll is accurate so don't ponder that 18 to 20 percent.

    February 3, 2008 06:24 pm at 6:24 pm |
  5. charlotte

    The Clintons are the Dynamic Duo, Go Hillary we need you!

    February 3, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  6. Emily N.

    Jabari Woods,

    You may have been misinformed by Obama's negative mailer about Hillary's health care plan. It IS mandatory, but it is also affordable because it cuts cost more aggressively than Obama's plan.

    How did you expect universal health care to work? Obama's plan will leave 15 million people out, the people who choose not to get health insurance, making costs rise for everyone else.

    Surely you know that nothing is free. Everyone will have to pay for health care. No president will just hand it out, but Hillary's plan does the best to make it affordable.

    February 3, 2008 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  7. Kim

    I definitely think that Obama deserves the Democratic nomination. I think he's the ONLY candidate that can effectively change the horrible reputation that America now has. He would definitely be a healing factor for this nation. Instead of being either red or blue, he'll make the nation finally see purple.

    February 3, 2008 07:21 pm at 7:21 pm |
  8. Jack from California

    Well if Obama gets the nomination I'm voting for John McCain

    February 3, 2008 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  9. Jack from California

    Well CNN Producer Alexander Moone, It's obvious to me that given the fact that every one of my comments gets blocked that your supporting Obama.

    I think that Hillary Clinton is the only one that can beat the GOP in November!

    February 3, 2008 08:00 pm at 8:00 pm |
  10. stan pitts pa

    if HRC gets the nomination im voting REPUBLICAN!

    February 3, 2008 08:10 pm at 8:10 pm |
  11. Jack from Atlanta

    Remember, we do not have much choice between Republicans and Democrats, between Barrack and Hillary. We need some one who is smart and intelligent to help grow the economy, provide safety for us. With respect to Barrack's claim of being right on opposing the IRAQ war, even Collin Powell put up a convincing argument to go against IRAQ on the issue of WMD. More than 90% voted for US going against IRAQ. He had very little to lose as a junior senator in politics. No one even talked about it then. He did not even the run the risk of being branded unpatriotic...... He was so new. I think Barrack got lucky with respect to Iraq issue and not necessarily right.

    February 3, 2008 08:58 pm at 8:58 pm |
  12. Interested

    Hiliary is kicking Obama's behind....

    February 3, 2008 09:00 pm at 9:00 pm |
  13. jay

    It's scary whenever this guy Barack say he can bring change and hope for the people. He should be in the pulpit or better yet replace Dr. Phil. What the country needs right now is a leader who can do the job right away. During the debate, Hillary has the plans concretely laid out while Barack dances his way around his plans. And yet people still believe in him. I am scared. Really scared if he is nominated and wins as a President of the United States of America because he's a dud. But at the same time I'm going to have the last laugh because that will be a big slap on the faces of those who voted for him.

    February 3, 2008 09:58 pm at 9:58 pm |
  14. Julie

    If Obama gets the nomination, I'll vote for McCain or Romney. At least you know what to expect from them. Obama is a big gamble. Let's just HOPE we won't loose this one. This from long term dem.

    February 3, 2008 10:23 pm at 10:23 pm |
  15. joe

    the ever narrowing gap between these two candidates may be setting the democratic party up for a situation that can be their own undoing. if this race continues to be close, the democrats will be forced to rely on the choices made by their super delegates to decide the final outcome. currently, obama leads the delegate count based solely on the results of the completed contest. however, when viewed through the lense of the influence of super delegates, clinton leads the total delegate count based on promises made by some super delegates. if super tues results in a vitural tie, and this continues all the way to the convention, it will then be left to the choices made by the democratic super delegates to decide on who will represent the party in the general election. these super delegates are the elite members of the party and are under no obligation to vote based on the wishes of democratic voters. the entire purpose of the 800 super delegates is to ensure the democratic party that they will put forward the candidate the party leaders feel will best represent the party and win against their rivals. the dilema for the democratic party will be how to decide on which candidate their leadership will support without causing an unwanted backlash among the supporters of the candidate these leaders did not support. while the candidates themselves may be willing to outwardly support their rival, their supporters are under no obligation to follow this lead, and may choose to disengage from particiaption in the general election. to win the white house democrats will need the kind of participation they are currently seeing in these primary contest. without the overwhelming numbers democrats are currently seeing, winning the white house may be a harder fought battle than expected.

    February 3, 2008 10:28 pm at 10:28 pm |
  16. Laura

    If Obama wins the nomination I will vote republican for the first time in my life.

    February 3, 2008 10:31 pm at 10:31 pm |
  17. treborjant

    RESPONSE TO Jack from California:

    Me too!!

    February 3, 2008 10:31 pm at 10:31 pm |
  18. J.C.T.

    AFTER THE GIANTS DEFEATED THE PATRIOTS....
    HILLARY CLINTON WENT UP IN THE POLLS
    TO 99%....
    THE GIANTS DEDICATED THE GAME TO HILLARY ...
    THE SUPER TUESDAY BEGIN TODAY...IN NEW YORK...

    February 3, 2008 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |
  19. Bruce Jackson

    It appears to some the media has done eveything possible to make this race as even as possible (run positives on one candidate and then only the negative on another....fact check one...but not the other)...it sells more product! Why during the debates do questions on Iran, and the Palestinians and Israel ignored? Why no mention of the Balakans and the Kosovo? Russia? Iraq/Afganistan were mentioned...the are mentioned on almost every debate on TV but never these key international issues? The Republicans are going to come hard at the Democrats over National Security it would be nice to hear the Democratic views on these issues.

    Follow on...Senator Obama failed to show up for the Senate vote on the designation of Iran's Al Quds Forces designation as a terrorist group. Meanwhile US service men and women who are risking their lives in Iraq and Afganistan, continue to be killed or hurt by Iranian made improvised explosives. Senator Clinton managed to take a break from the campaign trail earlier this year to make that vote. She recognized their was a need to protect our troops lives and send a clear message to our nations potential enemies. The spin doctors have tried to say this vote gives the President a "green light" to attack Iran, which of course it does not, it was a simple yes or no vote. Senator Clinton made the vote as did Senator McCain. Hmmm...could some one been concerned about poll numbers on these difficult issues

    As American voters–it is truly only our individual endorsement that count.

    February 3, 2008 10:39 pm at 10:39 pm |
  20. Jack

    Obama is a Republican DREAM -yea throw all your support behind him so that the GOP can win in a landslide!

    February 3, 2008 10:47 pm at 10:47 pm |
  21. Californian

    Asian American votes will make the difference in the California votes. This group prefers Hillary because of her strong ties with the community.

    February 4, 2008 12:11 am at 12:11 am |
  22. Robert M. Reidy N.Y.

    In politics, my friends, it is all about momentum – and that is what Barack Obama
    is responsible for, not nebulous things like name recognition.

    February 4, 2008 12:15 am at 12:15 am |
  23. J.C.T.

    "Merecen respeto"

    Los países de América Latina merecen el respeto y la atención de los Estados Unidos. Somos socios en temas críticos que van desde el crecimiento económico hasta la seguridad nacional. Compartimos retos comunes incluyendo la protección de los valores democráticos, la lucha contra una creciente desigualdad social y el fortalecimiento de nuestras economías.

    February 4, 2008 12:17 am at 12:17 am |
  24. Corky

    by rdr5762 2/3/2008 3:13:10 PM As an avid supporter of Hillary, I am concerned when I read articles of this nature that it is not being broadcast to the millions who need to hear it. I am also concerned that I haven't heard anyone pointing out that Obama indicated he'd be RIGHT on day one in the debate, but then later in the same debate he stated that he wants to hear different points of views because he may not always be RIGHT. Kind of contridictory don't you think!!!!! At the same time Obama has been giving all of these speeches about being RIGHT on day one. without any substance (which the Republicans are already prepared and would be more than happy to point out if he makes it to the general election phase). I'm sure if his supporters were challenged to name at least 3 items on his platform, they wouldn't know where to begin.

    I think it's time to stop the so called "momentum" and bring the nation back to reality. We need a President in these challenging times with experience and the ability to get things done. One who can face the Republicans head on without the possibility of being labeled a "liberal".

    February 4, 2008 12:57 am at 12:57 am |
  25. Lynn 1951

    Ted Kennedy pushed the race button by media leaks, not the Clinton's. He was champing at the bit to come out for the first credible black candidate. He encouraged Obama to run, it has been rumored he has wanted to come out for him since Iowa and he invented a reason because he wanted to be the big dog, administer a good "beat down" to Hillary and Bill and prove he carried more weight in the Democratic party than Clinton. Talk about dirty politics. All of a sudden, right before Super Tuesday, Kennedy's come out of the wood work. If he wanted to support him just say so. Anybody who believes this wasn't his plan for the last several months is crazy. He can't bring up any of Bill's women because of his family's history. Camelot was not the dream it is remembered as.

    Think about it. His family supporting Obama to the White House emphasizes "Camelot". Hillary going to the Whitehouse emphasizes the Clinton legacy. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure this out. Guess who will be Obama's top confident. Obama took a large loan out for this, how is he going to cross Kennedy?

    If you'll notice all the senator's who ran for president who are supporting are from the old politics. Several of them ran for president, but couldn't get elected. Seems like pay back to Clinton who not only won once, but twice.

    February 4, 2008 12:58 am at 12:58 am |
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