February 3rd, 2008
12:20 PM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests Obama, Clinton in dead heat in California

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/02/03/art.cali.ap.jpg caption=" Clinton and Obama are tied in California, a new poll shows."]

(CNN) - A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead in California. John Edwards, then still a presidential candidate, registered 11 percent.

If the eventual outcome of the race is as close as the poll suggests, both candidates stand to rack up significant numbers of delegates in the state: On the Democratic side, California awards its 370 delegates proportionately.

The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close - John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters.

California is worth 170 delegates for the Republicans and unlike the Democrats, the winner of the state's primary will be awarded them all.

The poll, conducted January 25-Febuary 1, surveyed 481 likely Republican primary voters and 511 likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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- CNN Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: California • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. jershom

    May the BEST candidate win.

    February 4, 2008 12:59 am at 12:59 am |
  2. LAhope

    As far as Hillary and Obama go they basically seem the same on the issues. I really only see the major differences in two areas.

    Health care.
    Obama wants to make healthcare more affordable so anyone who wants healthcare can afford it but doesn't make you buy it. Hillary wants to make it more affordable but also wants to make sure everyone has it. While that is the ultimate goal that everyone would be covered, it'll also cost everyone even more in taxes and if you can't afford the mandatory government healthcare cost you'll get penalized or fined.

    War/foreign policy.
    Obama is willing to talk with people we oppose, opening up a dialogue that doesn't currently exist. I support us using diplomacy, one of the things that makes this country great. Obama was against the war from the very start which is a key judgment issue.

    On the issue of experience. They will both have advisers and a cabinet filled with people that have experience on issues as well. Obama has some more street experience and state level legislature experience while Hillary of course has one more term of washington senate and the experience as first lady.

    And this election is about who has the ability to bring us all together again. Stop the partisan politics and transcend this process to a higher level. I have a feeling Hillary already has a lot of people who won't even listen to her based on the past 16 years...that's where experience can hurt you. Just my opinion.

    But I do like Hillary a lot, she's strong, done a lot of positive things. I just think Obama is the best option for the country right now.

    February 4, 2008 01:03 am at 1:03 am |
  3. john CA


    I am a CALIFORNIAN but I salute NEW YORKERS.

    CONGRATULATIONS NEW YORK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    February 4, 2008 01:07 am at 1:07 am |
  4. graceanne

    And if Obama wins I'll band together with the women disenfranchised by Ted Kennedy and the DNC and vote for Ralph Nadar. That's the talk that I'm hearing from women's groups. It'll mean four more years of Republican misery but we have to take a stand some time, and it looks like this is the time! Does Harold Dean read these things by chance?

    February 4, 2008 01:13 am at 1:13 am |
  5. Amanda, Missoula, Montana

    Will the sore loser, poor sport Clintonites please quit dumping on CNN for just
    doing their jobs!? This is crazy – you know CNN is the best. Quit using CNN as
    a scapegoat everytime something good happens for Obama, or something bad happens for Hillary. I happen to be a strong Obama supporter who doesn't get angry when CNN puts forth stories on Clinton – because that doesn't make sense!!

    Also, reporters put themselves in harms way and I am grateful for them. it was very wrong for Bill Clinton to chew out that FEMALE reporter for doing her job!!

    Go CNN !!!!

    February 4, 2008 01:33 am at 1:33 am |
  6. John

    You want vote a childish, unpolite Obama Hussein for president. What is an joke? You can look at Kanya, what is happening there.

    February 4, 2008 01:33 am at 1:33 am |
  7. Jen

    Hillary will win California by double digits. Hillary will be president. Deal with it!!!

    February 4, 2008 01:57 am at 1:57 am |
  8. jekp


    February 4, 2008 03:15 am at 3:15 am |
  9. Dan

    I think the republicans really want Hillary so their party can have something to get their party back together and fight against.

    February 4, 2008 03:18 am at 3:18 am |
  10. livingstone

    Here we go again – Polls and Polls. when will people learn that the best polls is the election results itself. people are getting fired up over nothing. lets not forget that polls last few weeks showed Senator Obama had double point lead in New hemshire over Senator Clinton. students of history can tell better that history has a way of repeating itself.

    February 4, 2008 03:29 am at 3:29 am |
  11. Neal

    Cristina, please. With all due respect, I've heard him be specific on Iraq withdrawal (16mos), the way to shore up social security (increase contribution for top earners), reduce our dependence on foreign oil (take the $1billion a day we spend on foreign oil and invest in American green energy industry), an increase in Pell grants and $4k college education tax credit, reducing health care costs for catastrophic outlays by focusing on prevention, reducing carbon emissions 80% by 2050, and on and on, and this is only from what I've heard in these silly sound bite debates! Be fair, all the Cristinas of the world. Don't perpetuate empty criticisms and we'll all be the better for it. If you want to level real criticism, I'll help you: all you Hillary folks really have is that his health care plan doesn't have a mandate for adults and that he hasn't been a part of the Washington establishment for very many years. Big deal coming from backers of a candidate who voted with Bush and the other war mongers on Iraq, who has taken more money from federal lobbyists than anyone in the race, and who actually said in a campaign rally: "I'm fired up and ready to go for change", a defining moment in her campaign, when a number of people who had been wondering if she's authentic made up their minds. We can really change this country, but we have to choose our leader wisely.

    February 4, 2008 03:39 am at 3:39 am |
  12. v.ananthan



    HILLARY CLINTON IS A TRUE LEADER ..................

    February 4, 2008 04:10 am at 4:10 am |
  13. blindman

    I see that a lot of the posting here seem to throw a blind eye to the message of hope and change. I for one dont care who it is that chants these type of words but I can tell you one thing I know for sure. That it was the same type of hope and change that the founding fathers of this nation had when they fougth for freedom.
    Or the same hope and change that Lincoln had when he brougth our nation back together after the Civil War and freed the slaves. Or the same hope and change that inspired Dr. King to fight for civil rights. And all these things help make this nation so great, so all you ney sayer of hope and change think about what you are truely saying.

    February 4, 2008 04:10 am at 4:10 am |
  14. James Recto

    Californians are smart. The poll from CNN that suggest Clinton is slightly ahead of Obama is a total lie just like CNN censors alot of comments posted by Clinton supporters or independent voters who are willing to vote for Clinton. At the end of Super Tuesday, Clinton will win by landslide in California and ALAS! once again
    CNN's biased against Clinton and her supporters will be widely known. CNN please don't be like FOX News. You still have time left to prove yourself that you are not bias, that you are independent by not favoring OBAMA. Stay Independent for the sake of AMerica.

    February 4, 2008 05:01 am at 5:01 am |
  15. Deborah

    My entire family is supporting Obama and we are excited about the poll results (Cheryl, Zogby's specific results are available to anyone who pays the $99...Zogby is a business). We are still concerned about the early pre-momentum vote, which preceded Senator Kennedy's endorsement, but if Senator Obama even comes close, it will be his night...what an accomplishment, considering the Clintons had a double digit lead just last week!

    February 4, 2008 05:25 am at 5:25 am |
  16. Laura

    I'm tired of the comparisons of Obama to JFK. Obama wouldn't have been able to stare down the Russians as JFK did during the Cuban Missle Crisis. This is evidenced by his 125 present votes while in the Illinois State Senate. Further evidence of this is the vote on the Iranian Republican Guard issue. While Clinton and McCain came back from campaigning to vote, Obama was AWOL. If he voted yes the liberals would be upset, if he voted no, it would be used against him in the general election.

    Is this an example of the change he is talking about? If there is a difficult decision to make he'll stick his head in the sand?

    If Obama is the nominee, I'm voting for McCain. At least McCain isn't afraid to stand up and be counted

    February 4, 2008 05:49 am at 5:49 am |
  17. joanna

    I've been calling undecideds in California to urge them to vote for Obama. No urging required. I reached very few young people, by the way, they don't have land lines and we don't have cell phone numbers. I want to ask you, how are people who only have cell phones polled? Just curious.

    That rally at UCLA today was marvelous. Did you know that Michelle Obama and her husband are still paying off their college loans? Talk about walking in my shoes.

    February 4, 2008 06:04 am at 6:04 am |
  18. teutonic power ranger

    Seems like Americans are feeling as if they were born just three days ago when looking at election issues. Haven't they got the common-sense to realise that the White House is out of bounds even to Whites like ITALIANOS (Gulianni) and so forth.

    February 4, 2008 06:31 am at 6:31 am |
  19. The Observer

    Neal you are an ignorant if you vote for Obama – he does not give detail – it is all superficial fluff that you and other Obamites are being conned with.

    February 4, 2008 06:40 am at 6:40 am |
  20. GizFromTheBay

    I have two requests, please?

    1. To all of those people stating that they've seen other polls with Clinton leading by some excessive number:

    I've conducted a survey of my own.

    Hillary Clinton: 0%
    Barack Obama: 100%
    n = 1
    Margin of Error: 0%

    My point is, please don't state you've "seen" statistical results and leave it at that. False claims and/or unsupported/skewed claims make you look bad. (Sound familiar to anyone?)

    (and if you haven't figured out, I surveyed myself) 😛

    2. I'm noticing that a lot of HRC supporters are typing all in caps and leaving a wall'o-text that is very painful to read (in this thread and others). There's no reason to type all in caps and "shout" to try to make your point. The occasional word or phrase is ok and managable, but when the whole paragraph is styled that way, it can be very difficult to read. (Plus, it makes it kind of unattractive, and I'm sure none of us like to look at unattractive things).


    February 4, 2008 06:42 am at 6:42 am |
  21. Tim

    So what, Hillary is still ahead and winning in most polls.

    February 4, 2008 07:59 am at 7:59 am |
  22. The Observer

    I'm going to put my head on the line.

    Clinton will get 1,138 delegates tomorrow.

    Obama will get 926 delegates tomorrow.

    February 4, 2008 08:19 am at 8:19 am |
  23. Di

    Why is OBAMA claiming to be black? Wasn't his mother white?

    February 4, 2008 08:39 am at 8:39 am |
  24. Bryce

    Obama has a magic wans that is going to "Change" everything! I swear! It's true!

    February 4, 2008 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  25. Leila

    If Hillary loses or ties in California, she should pack it in. What a huge blow to her campaign. If she can't make it there, she's toast.

    February 4, 2008 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
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